This is a great example for not trading down | Page 4 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

This is a great example for not trading down

Mach2 said:
Can you elaborate on why you would say that?

In response to the first sentence. There is no evidentiary foundation for such a definitive, unbending position. Feelz should never be stated as facts.

To the second, yeah, all mocks are pretty much fantasy, particularly those that come out before FA. Most of these guys do little research into the specific teams, and just rate the players.

As soon as one or two teams pick differently than the mock, the whole house of cards comes tumbling down.

Frankly, I don't know why ppl even take early mocks (prior to a couple weeks before the draft) seriously.
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Unless it involves trading players it wont happen.
 
juniorseau55 said:
What teams want to use it for a qb name me all of them.
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Obviously, it's all speculation at this point, and some of it depends on where FA QBs end up.

Carolina and Denver are probably the most realistic possibilities that would keep us in the top third of rd1.

I've been saying all along, we aren't in as great of a position as many ppl think, as far as an automatic trade down. Certainly not in position to dictate any huge compensation, without moving down more than those same ppl want.

There are no unanimously great pass rushers (or any other positions for that matter). After the top 2 QBs are gone, likely before our pick, the rest have question marks.

It's just not the best year to leverage a #3 pick. It also isn't the best situation for us to be forced to use it.

In any case, it beats the hell out of having #10, which was a real possibilty right up until the final 2 weeks of the season.
 
Mach2 said:
Obviously, it's all speculation at this point, and some of it depends on where FA QBs end up.

Carolina and Denver are probably the most realistic possibilities that would keep us in the top third of rd1.

I've been saying all along, we aren't in as great of a position as many ppl think, as far as an automatic trade down. Certainly not in position to dictate any huge compensation, without moving down more than those same ppl want.

There are no unanimously great pass rushers (or any other positions for that matter). After the top 2 QBs are gone, likely before our pick, the rest have question marks.

It's just not the best year to leverage a #3 pick. It also isn't the best situation for us to be forced to use it.

In any case, it beats the hell out of having #10, which was a real possibilty right up until the final 2 weeks of the season.
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Too many confuse 'desire' with 'prediction.' I WANT Miami to move down so I PREDICT a number of teams want to move up. I'm about the same place you are - I expect a trade down, but that's an inclination, not a prediction. And I'm not expecting the haul some are.
 
SF Dolphin Fan said:
Offensive linemen are always so hard to scout IMO. As a fan, I don't know if they are assignment sound, as an example. But you can see power and movement.

I love reading about those linemen with the killer instinct, who never quit and wear a defensive down. Last year that was Kindley. That's Sewell's scouting report as well.

Slater is said to be more technically sound. I think both will be good, maybe great players.

I also had Thomas high last year and he really struggled as a rookie, which I didn't see coming.

I'm certainly not opposed to the Dolphins adding talent on the offensive line. That 's an area that still needs some work.
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Yeah, OL are a bit odd. Technique is easy to see, which is why guys like Zack Martin looked soo appealing as prospects. And athletic talent is easy to see, which is why guys like Laremy Tunsil looked so good coming out. But the speed of the game and the complexity of both defenses and offenses sometimes makes it tough for guys with the athletic ability to keep such a high rate of technical excellence to grade out as a good OL. That projection is really really hard, and part of the reason why so many OL prospects bust. The job is incredibly physically demanding, but also is one of the very most mentally demanding positions as well. Couple that with needing the vision and experience to read the play as it develops ... it's a lot to process and a lot of instant decisions to be made.

Remember, OL win the vast majority of plays, so a kid winning 70% of the time looks bad because you're seeing him lose 30% of the time ... despite the fact that he usually wins. Some guys can win 90% of the time but are physically overmatched that 10% of the time because they lack power or lateral quickness. Those guys require help, which takes away from what an OC can do, and puts more pressure on the other OL to win. Then there are the guys who have the physical ability, but haven't quite shown mastery of the technique, and everyone is _hoping_ they can learn the technique and apply it at the next level ... those are usually the guys that bust most often.

Since the job requires soooo much mental work and technique, its sometimes a progression, such as smaller school phenoms like Billy Turner who take several years to become a decent OL ... and by the time they do, they're a FA and not worth the cost. Teams that draft them are simply volunteering to become farm clubs for real franchises in FA. That's why I like the New England approach to OL. Spend little, have lots of turnover, but aim for getting an average to above average OL of limited athletes who can produce immediately. It means you're unit will not be unaffordable to re-sign in FA, and it means you'll be getting satisfactory role player production at all times. Look for durable guys and keep a deep roster of average players with average to above average physical traits, but don't splurge on the phenoms because you'll lose salary cap when they're injured or being developed, and when they become FA's they break your salary cap or leave. Very solid approach, IMHO. Extremely efficient for the salary cap. It allows you to have a decent run game running against pass defenses, and a decent passing game passing against run defenses. If you have a good QB, he can thrive. Tua's mobility should enable us to do that in Miami, and invest big draft picks and salary cap to WR's, DE's, CB's, and other premier positions. While Tua is on his rookie contract, we have a window to excel.

Evaluating OL is tough. IMHO, I'd rather build with Austin Jackson as our LT and add a 2nd rounder or two at RT and C and groom this group to excel. If we can't have a solid to good OL with that investment (1st in Jackon, 2nd in Hunt, 2nd this year for a RT), then we're simply wasting our picks. Kindley was a mid round (4th) pick, and we have 2 FA's one making peanuts (Karras) and one making serious starter money (Flowers), so we've invested a lot already. The time is now for investing in a target for Tua and some defensive cornerstones (edge rusher if one can be found).
 
juniorseau55 said:
What teams want to use it for a qb name me all of them.
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There is a strong case for the following teams either needing, wanting to upgrade, or may want to get the next QB in the system. Atlanta, Philly, Detroit, Carolina, and Denver. No way can you make a statement that we are not moving down period.
 
Three WRs in the top 7. I would love to see that happen so all the 'value' taking heads explode.
 
Digital said:
Yeah, OL are a bit odd. Technique is easy to see, which is why guys like Zack Martin looked soo appealing as prospects. And athletic talent is easy to see, which is why guys like Laremy Tunsil looked so good coming out. But the speed of the game and the complexity of both defenses and offenses sometimes makes it tough for guys with the athletic ability to keep such a high rate of technical excellence to grade out as a good OL. That projection is really really hard, and part of the reason why so many OL prospects bust. The job is incredibly physically demanding, but also is one of the very most mentally demanding positions as well. Couple that with needing the vision and experience to read the play as it develops ... it's a lot to process and a lot of instant decisions to be made.

Remember, OL win the vast majority of plays, so a kid winning 70% of the time looks bad because you're seeing him lose 30% of the time ... despite the fact that he usually wins. Some guys can win 90% of the time but are physically overmatched that 10% of the time because they lack power or lateral quickness. Those guys require help, which takes away from what an OC can do, and puts more pressure on the other OL to win. Then there are the guys who have the physical ability, but haven't quite shown mastery of the technique, and everyone is _hoping_ they can learn the technique and apply it at the next level ... those are usually the guys that bust most often.

Since the job requires soooo much mental work and technique, its sometimes a progression, such as smaller school phenoms like Billy Turner who take several years to become a decent OL ... and by the time they do, they're a FA and not worth the cost. Teams that draft them are simply volunteering to become farm clubs for real franchises in FA. That's why I like the New England approach to OL. Spend little, have lots of turnover, but aim for getting an average to above average OL of limited athletes who can produce immediately. It means you're unit will not be unaffordable to re-sign in FA, and it means you'll be getting satisfactory role player production at all times. Look for durable guys and keep a deep roster of average players with average to above average physical traits, but don't splurge on the phenoms because you'll lose salary cap when they're injured or being developed, and when they become FA's they break your salary cap or leave. Very solid approach, IMHO. Extremely efficient for the salary cap. It allows you to have a decent run game running against pass defenses, and a decent passing game passing against run defenses. If you have a good QB, he can thrive. Tua's mobility should enable us to do that in Miami, and invest big draft picks and salary cap to WR's, DE's, CB's, and other premier positions. While Tua is on his rookie contract, we have a window to excel.

Evaluating OL is tough. IMHO, I'd rather build with Austin Jackson as our LT and add a 2nd rounder or two at RT and C and groom this group to excel. If we can't have a solid to good OL with that investment (1st in Jackon, 2nd in Hunt, 2nd this year for a RT), then we're simply wasting our picks. Kindley was a mid round (4th) pick, and we have 2 FA's one making peanuts (Karras) and one making serious starter money (Flowers), so we've invested a lot already. The time is now for investing in a target for Tua and some defensive cornerstones (edge rusher if one can be found).
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I also don't think Miami needs to spend a first rounder on the offensive line.

One or two adds, maybe a player like Humphrey or Eichenberg in round 2 should give Miami a potentially above average unit.

Agree, it's time to add skill positions. Edge rusher is a tough one in this draft. Maybe you roll the dice at #18 for Rousseau or Paye.

I think that might be the perfect spot to find Van Noy 's replacement, though. Collins maybe.
 
fansinceGWilson said:
Too many confuse 'desire' with 'prediction.' I WANT Miami to move down so I PREDICT a number of teams want to move up. I'm about the same place you are - I expect a trade down, but that's an inclination, not a prediction. And I'm not expecting the haul some are.
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I am expecting a trade down and to pick up two extra draft picks in the process.

I'd like more... but I'm be disappointed if we only come away with an extra second rounder. (unless it's just a trade within the first 6 or so).
 
SF Dolphin Fan said:
I also don't think Miami needs to spend a first rounder on the offensive line.

One or two adds, maybe a player like Humphrey or Eichenberg in round 2 should give Miami a potentially above average unit.

Agree, it's time to add skill positions. Edge rusher is a tough one in this draft. Maybe you roll the dice at #18 for Rousseau or Paye.

I think that might be the perfect spot to find Van Noy 's replacement, though. Collins maybe.
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If we pass on the first round Tackles... I like both Mayfield and Carman... either would let us kick Hunt inside.
 
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