This is how I see Henne's season stats panning out, make your predictions here! | Page 3 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

This is how I see Henne's season stats panning out, make your predictions here!

4000 is not that impossible...

last year Henne had 2878 yards in basically 13 games... Penny played games 1, 2, and half of 3, and Henne left halfway through game 16... so 12 full games, and 2 1/2 games = 13 games...

thats 221 yards per game, over 16 games that would have been... 3542 yards

that was first year starting, and with a weaker WR core...

So for this year more experienced, full offseason as a starter, and better weapons, is a 500 yard increase that hard to imagine? thats an extra 31 passing yards per game... its doable
 
I agree with you, and the biggest problem that Henne showed in those games is that we he was completely capable of passing when the team had nothing to lose, but when the game was actually there for the taking he put up his worst.

I'm not trying to be overly negative about Henne, but mostly Jets fans are grounded in reality in this thread. We're talking about a guy who our own coach indirectly lumped into the mediocre category with the rest of the team, showed so little downfield playmaking ability that Tyler Thigpen completed more downfield passes in a quarter of play with the same receivers, who also threw more TD's than interceptions in only one of our last 6 games including two 3 interception performances, and who never threw more than two TD's in a game.

Henne has the tools to make it seem that he could be great, but his performance last year didn't even leave him among the good and he didn't show the downfield play ability that you'd expect from a franchise passer. People in college expected him to morph into something he wasn't but were left disappointed. Why Dolphin fans have let their expectations get beyond reality is beyond me.

[video=youtube;4cQliNPBtDo]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4cQliNPBtDo&feature=related[/video]
[video=youtube;pelu5IzJtHs]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pelu5IzJtHs&feature=related[/video]


Henne was completing big time passes all night.
 
What happens if our runningbacks are on I.R. by mid season what does that do to affect Henne either positive or negative in terms of numbers?

if our wrs drop as many passes as they did last year even 2,500 yards seems un reachable.

if our wrs and our tightends get the ball thrown to them it could be a good year for them but they need to get the ball into the endzone some.

my official predictions are like this

Miami led by the Rocket man Mr. Henne with 2800 yards 18 tds and 10 ints.
with a wining record of 12 -4

Jets 11-5

pats 9-7

Bills 8-8

I predict that Ronnie and Ricky will struggle until our passing game gets improved , yet they will have good numbers but deffenses will be ready to stop our running game.
 
Henne will be lucky if he throws more tds than interceptions. People are expecting too much from him.
 
Henne will be lucky if he throws more tds than interceptions. People are expecting too much from him.

due to playing experience and an improved WR corps, most people are fully expecting him to do so. i'm not going to go ahead and predict 4000+ yards, but roughly 3500 yards and more TD's than INT's is definitely attainable.
 
When numbers are adjusted accordingly and you really look at it, Henne was the #1 QB on the 2nd tier pool of NFL QB's last year:

http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb

And that was in his first season having to deal with a mediocre WR corps, and season-ending injuries to his #1 and #3 running backs. Along with multiple injuries on the O-line.

Compare Henne's placement as the top of the 2nd tier to Sanchez who was in the middle of the 3rd tier, around guys like Boller, Fitzpatrick, Derek Anderson, and so on.

It's no secret how everyone in the NFL media are in love with Henne.. Because most people know he's the real deal and has all the tools to be great.

Next year Henne will be around the middle of the top tier with the addition of a true #1 WR, and a full offseason to work with the first team, and the expansion of the offensive playbook for the passing game.

Moving firmly into the top tier this season from the top of the 2nd tier last year.
 
When numbers are adjusted accordingly and you really look at it, Henne was the #1 QB on the 2nd tier pool of NFL QB's last year:

http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb

And that was in his first season having to deal with a mediocre WR corps, and season-ending injuries to his #1 and #3 running backs. Along with multiple injuries on the O-line.

Compare Henne's placement as the top of the 2nd tier to Sanchez who was in the middle of the 3rd tier, around guys like Boller, Fitzpatrick, Derek Anderson, and so on.

It's no secret how everyone in the NFL media are in love with Henne.. Because he's the real deal and has all the tools to be great.

Next year Henne will be around the middle of the top tier with the addition of a true #1 WR, and a full offseason to work with the first team, and the expansion of the offensive playbook for the passing game.

what tiers, henne was 21st in DVOA. Not very good.
 
[video=youtube;4cQliNPBtDo]


Henne was completing big time passes all night.

I watched that game live and I very well remember the play's Henne made. Yes, there was the long bomb to Ted Ginn that we all remember, which also happened to be the one legitimate big play that Henne made in 14 games. Other than that, I saw Henne making accurate passes that really aren't big plays. Nice throws, but not big plays.

Big plays are different than making good passes. Either the QB connects a bomb (like in the Ginn pass), or when the pocket breaks down he gets outside it and finds a man way downfield and makes something happen. Also, there are the type of big plays like Roethelisberger to Holmes in the SB, where he finds a guy in the back of the end zone and gets the ball to him in the only space where both the defense couldn't get to it, but the receiver could and still get in bounds. Other big plays are Eli Manning in the Super Bowl somehow managing to wrangle out of the defender's grasp, get outside the pocket and get the ball to David Tyree.

A QB can throw nice intermediate passes all day, and that doesn't make him a big play QB. Henne does this very well when he is on, and I'm not going to deny him that. But these things are not big plays, and while some QB's are able to make the big plays and yet not hit intermediate ones consistently enough, like Sage Rosenfels, making them not great starting QB's, its also possible to hit the intermediate ones and not hit the big ones enough. You can be a much better QB than the guys who can make mostly big plays, even a very good QB, but a franchise passer has to be able to make both the intermediate plays and the occasional big play. That what separates him from other QB's, and gives him the edge to come out ahead nearly every Sunday.

Hitting one big play a season doesn't make you a big play QB. Chad Pennington completed more deep passes with worse receivers than Henne. We all remember the occasional deep balls to Ginn which happened more than just one occasion, yet he also got 38 20+ yard plays and 8 40+ yard plays in 16 games of 2008. Henne in just 25 less attempts in 2009 had only 23 20+ yard plays and 4 40+ yard plays.

We all know that Pennigton wasn't a big play QB, but it is absolutely ridiculous to suggest that Henne has been either. Ironically, the video showed Mark Sanchez showing the difference between himself and Henne, as he clearly made more big plays in that video. He has to get better at the little things to be a great QB, but big-play potential is there.
 
I watched that game live and I very well remember the play's Henne made. Yes, there was the long bomb to Ted Ginn that we all remember, which also happened to be the one legitimate big play that Henne made in 14 games. Other than that, I saw Henne making accurate passes that really aren't big plays. Nice throws, but not big plays.

Big plays are different than making good passes. Either the QB connects a bomb (like in the Ginn pass), or when the pocket breaks down he gets outside it and finds a man way downfield and makes something happen. Also, there are the type of big plays like Roethelisberger to Holmes in the SB, where he finds a guy in the back of the end zone and gets the ball to him in the only space where both the defense couldn't get to it, but the receiver could and still get in bounds. Other big plays are Eli Manning in the Super Bowl somehow managing to wrangle out of the defender's grasp, get outside the pocket and get the ball to David Tyree.

A QB can throw nice intermediate passes all day, and that doesn't make him a big play QB. Henne does this very well when he is on, and I'm not going to deny him that. But these things are not big plays, and while some QB's are able to make the big plays and yet not hit intermediate ones consistently enough, like Sage Rosenfels, making them not great starting QB's, its also possible to hit the intermediate ones and not hit the big ones enough. You can be a much better QB than the guys who can make mostly big plays, even a very good QB, but a franchise passer has to be able to make both the intermediate plays and the occasional big play. That what separates him from other QB's, and gives him the edge to come out ahead nearly every Sunday.

Hitting one big play a season doesn't make you a big play QB. Chad Pennington completed more deep passes with worse receivers than Henne. We all remember the occasional deep balls to Ginn which happened more than just one occasion, yet he also got 38 20+ yard plays and 8 40+ yard plays in 16 games of 2008. Henne in just 25 less attempts in 2009 had only 23 20+ yard plays and 4 40+ yard plays.

We all know that Pennigton wasn't a big play QB, but it is absolutely ridiculous to suggest that Henne has been either. Ironically, the video showed Mark Sanchez showing the difference between himself and Henne, as he clearly made more big plays in that video. He has to get better at the little things to be a great QB, but big-play potential is there.

The fact is that when the Jets game was on the line many different times, Henne made the throws he needed to.
 
The fact is that when the Jets game was on the line many different times, Henne made the throws he needed to.

Again, not big plays. When the line was getting pressured, all Henne was doing was getting the ball to the receiver the play was designed to go to, who probably had a lot less coverage to worry about because the Jets were bringing in blitzers.
 
Chad Pennington had almost 3700 passing yards with Dan Henning as his coordinator in Miami. And Miami didn't have close to the WR corps they have now. And didn't have close to the O-line they have now when Alleman, Satele and Ndukwe were your interior linemen.

To think Chad Henne can't get close to 4000 yards with his arm and talent level (and the talent level around him now on the offense) is just silly.

Especially when offensive players have recently come out and said they are going to pass more this season. And said they're really opening up the passing game this year.

They added almost 50 pages to the passing section of the offensive playbook this offseason.. They didn't put all that in there to confuse their own players and not use it.

He had just over 3600 yds on almost 500 attempts.

I hope you guys pass more b/c you are a running team so that means less rushing attempts.

4000 is not that impossible...

last year Henne had 2878 yards in basically 13 games... Penny played games 1, 2, and half of 3, and Henne left halfway through game 16... so 12 full games, and 2 1/2 games = 13 games...

thats 221 yards per game, over 16 games that would have been... 3542 yards

that was first year starting, and with a weaker WR core...

So for this year more experienced, full offseason as a starter, and better weapons, is a 500 yard increase that hard to imagine? thats an extra 31 passing yards per game... its doable

Henne had 451 attempts, if we prorate to 500 attempts(rivers had only 486) he still has less than 3200. It's a LONG way to go from where he was last year to anywhere near 4,000 yds.

yes he will have more experience and a better WR corps but to expect 1,000 more yds isn'tbeing fair to the guy.

The fact is that when the Jets game was on the line many different times, Henne made the throws he needed to.

he had a good game but you won b/c of the wildcat's effectiveness. You had our D off balance most of the night and one good half doesn't make a season or career. In game 2 against us he was terrible when we shut down the ground game.
 
he had a good game but you won b/c of the wildcat's effectiveness. You had our D off balance most of the night and one good half doesn't make a season or career. In game 2 against us he was terrible when we shut down the ground game.

Most sports fans have trouble recognizing that a couple good plays don't make one great. Being great requires being great all the time, something that few athletes are capable of doing, which is what makes the truly great stand out. For this guy to be as good as everyone is projecting this offseason, he'd have to have 16 games worth of games like the first game against you. Or maybe even better games than that, as he never had 3 TD's in a game. Nevermind that he had far more terrible games, like versus Tennessee, Buffalo, New Orleans, a slew of "meh" games and a couple that were slightly good than bad.

Most sports fans like to project a young player's great moments over his career and ignore the below average moments, which are actually what usually end up being the final say on nearly every player's effectiveness. Only a select few mange to shake off the trends that lead to their weaker moments and become bonafide franchise players. It's not determined that Henne can't join this second category, but I've already explained my reasons for believing why he will end up in the first. And I'll reiterate one of those reasons in that he was expected to be great in college, but he never was. That being the case, I have even less hope that he can do it a level up, but I'm still rooting hard for him to prove me wrong even if my analysis makes me think it won't happen.
 
Here is my guess.... 3987 yds. 63.6% completions, 27 tds, 11 ints

A great deal of Henne's success this season will be in game adjustments he is able to make from Penny's observations.
 
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