This simulator makes it easy to see... | Page 5 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

This simulator makes it easy to see...

Scrap said:
Not trying to be negative, but we aren’t going to the playoffs. Just being real. I’ve seen this story play out time and time again. We’ll do good enough to get our hopes up though.
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What’s the point as a fan of you don’t believe you have a shot? I mean at this stage you might as well turn it off and enjoy the rest of you 4-5 weeks doing something else.
 
bradmcnutt13 said:
Assuming we win the next 3, we either have an 87% chance if we win against the pats or a 6% chance. That is some difference. I'm pretty sure that we'll win the next 3 just to lose the last game. Just like last year, maximize our hope just to give us the ultimate kick in the nuts.
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What do you mean we we would have either 87 percent chance or percent chance? What gives us 87 percent chance? winning next 3 and what else?
 
We basically can't lose to a AFC team. If we lose to the Saints. We need alot of help. In other words. Win out. Win out is very possible.
 
This is what needs to happen and probably will happen for the Miami Dolphins to get the #7 Seed (We would play versus the Titans in the WC).

New England (8-4): at Buffalo L, at Indianapolis L, vs. Buffalo W, vs. Jacksonville W, at Miami L (10-7) (Eliminated)

Tennessee (8-4): vs. Jacksonville W, at Pittsburgh L, vs. San Francisco W, vs. Miami L, at Houston W (11-6) AFC South Champs #2 Seed

Baltimore (8-4): at Cleveland L, vs. Green Bay L, at Cincinnati W, vs. L.A. Rams W, vs. Pittsburgh W (11-6) AFC North Champs #3 Seed

Kansas City (8-4): vs. Las Vegas W, at L.A. Chargers L, vs. Pittsburgh W, at Cincinnati W, at Denver W (12-5) AFC West Champs #1 Seed

Buffalo (7-4): vs. New England W, at Tampa Bay L, vs. Carolina W, at New England L, vs. Atlanta W, vs. N.Y. Jets W (11-6) AFC East Champs #4 Seed

L.A. Chargers (7-5): vs. N.Y. Giants W, vs. Kansas City W, at Houston W, vs. Denver W, at Las Vegas L (11-6) Wild Card #5 Seed

Cincinnati (7-5): vs. San Francisco L, at Denver W, vs. Baltimore L, vs. Kansas City L, at Cleveland L (8-9) (Eliminated)

Pittsburgh (6-5-1): at Minnesota L, vs. Tennessee W, at Kansas City L, vs. Cleveland W, at Baltimore L (8-8-1) (Eliminated)

Indianapolis (7-6): vs. New England W, at Arizona L, vs. Las Vegas W, at Jacksonville W (10-7) Wild Card #6 Seed

Las Vegas (6-6): at Kansas City L, at Cleveland L, vs. Denver W, at Indianapolis L, vs. L.A. Chargers W (8-9) (Eliminated)

Cleveland (6-6): vs. Baltimore W, vs. Las Vegas W, at Green Bay L, at Pittsburgh L, vs. Cincinnati W (9-8) (Eliminated)

Denver (6-6): vs. Detroit W, vs. Cincinnati L, at Las Vegas L, at L.A. Chargers L, vs. Kansas City L (7-10) (Eliminated)

Miami (6-7): vs. N.Y. Jets W, at New Orleans W, at Tennessee W, vs. New England W (10-7) Wild Card #7 Seed
 
ANUFan said:
What’s the point as a fan of you don’t believe you have a shot? I mean at this stage you might as well turn it off and enjoy the rest of you 4-5 weeks doing something else.
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Oh, we have a shot. No doubt about that. It’s possible. Having watched every game this season, I see the same thing I’ve seen multiple times before. Crappy line, no running game. It’s a very one dimensional offense, with a good defense that won’t be able to do the same things for much longer before it gets exposed. Other than the Ravens, who have we beaten during this stretch of wins that you wouldn’t have marked as a win before the season? While it is nice to watch, it tends to provide a false hope. Happens almost every season.
 
bradmcnutt13 said:
I'm pretty sure that we'll win the next 3 just to lose the last game. Just like last year, maximize our hope just to give us the ultimate kick in the nuts.
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Agree. What makes this really suck is that at the end of last season everyone knew that Miami was close, but they needed a better o-line and a good RB#1. But Grier/Flores failed to fix these two areas, and now here we are heading into the last few games realizing that the Fins would be in a MUCH better situation if only they had a better o-line and a good RB#1.

This is why I can't understand why anyone would want to keep Grier and Flores; not only did they refuse to get a good RB, but everything they did to improve the o-line actually made it much worse than it was last year! Give this team an o-line and a running game and they could easily be the #1 Seed in the AFC. How can those two guys be so incompetent? Are they secretly still working for Belichick?
 
Maybe they'll be a Christmas Miracle under Dolfans' Trees this year. Ho Ho Ho!!!
 
bane said:
What do you mean we we would have either 87 percent chance or percent chance? What gives us 87 percent chance? winning next 3 and what else?
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Its from the nytimes simulator that the OP referenced. if we win the next 4, the simulator gives us an 87% of making the playoffs. if we win the next 3 and then lose to the pats, our chances drop to 6%.
 
PASQUALE said:
This is what needs to happen and probably will happen for the Miami Dolphins to get the #7 Seed (We would play versus the Titans in the WC).

New England (8-4): at Buffalo L, at Indianapolis L, vs. Buffalo W, vs. Jacksonville W, at Miami L (10-7) (Eliminated)

Tennessee (8-4): vs. Jacksonville W, at Pittsburgh L, vs. San Francisco W, vs. Miami L, at Houston W (11-6) AFC South Champs #2 Seed

Baltimore (8-4): at Cleveland L, vs. Green Bay L, at Cincinnati W, vs. L.A. Rams W, vs. Pittsburgh W (11-6) AFC North Champs #3 Seed

Kansas City (8-4): vs. Las Vegas W, at L.A. Chargers L, vs. Pittsburgh W, at Cincinnati W, at Denver W (12-5) AFC West Champs #1 Seed

Buffalo (7-4): vs. New England W, at Tampa Bay L, vs. Carolina W, at New England L, vs. Atlanta W, vs. N.Y. Jets W (11-6) AFC East Champs #4 Seed

L.A. Chargers (7-5): vs. N.Y. Giants W, vs. Kansas City W, at Houston W, vs. Denver W, at Las Vegas L (11-6) Wild Card #5 Seed

Cincinnati (7-5): vs. San Francisco L, at Denver W, vs. Baltimore L, vs. Kansas City L, at Cleveland L (8-9) (Eliminated)

Pittsburgh (6-5-1): at Minnesota L, vs. Tennessee W, at Kansas City L, vs. Cleveland W, at Baltimore L (8-8-1) (Eliminated)

Indianapolis (7-6): vs. New England W, at Arizona L, vs. Las Vegas W, at Jacksonville W (10-7) Wild Card #6 Seed

Las Vegas (6-6): at Kansas City L, at Cleveland L, vs. Denver W, at Indianapolis L, vs. L.A. Chargers W (8-9) (Eliminated)

Cleveland (6-6): vs. Baltimore W, vs. Las Vegas W, at Green Bay L, at Pittsburgh L, vs. Cincinnati W (9-8) (Eliminated)

Denver (6-6): vs. Detroit W, vs. Cincinnati L, at Las Vegas L, at L.A. Chargers L, vs. Kansas City L (7-10) (Eliminated)

Miami (6-7): vs. N.Y. Jets W, at New Orleans W, at Tennessee W, vs. New England W (10-7) Wild Card #7 Seed
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Baltimore looks done, can't see them getting to 11 wins. Cincy has a good chance of taking that division, and the Raven look like a 9 win team.
 
KCPhin said:
Baltimore looks done, can't see them getting to 11 wins. Cincy has a good chance of taking that division, and the Raven look like a 9 win team.
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Nah. The NFL and the refs will make sure they get the division. It's about money. Who would you rather have Ravens or Bengals? They want the Ravens. Watch.
 
KingHydra said:
I think if the Bills best the Patriots, it's over.
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Looks like a miserable game to be at tonight. Rich Stadium is one place I can honestly say that I don't ever want to go to to see a Dolphins road game. I'd go to Foxboro in a heartbeat over going to Orchard Park.
 
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projects.fivethirtyeight.com

2021 NFL Predictions

FiveThirtyEight's 2020 NFL forecast uses an Elo-based model to calculate each team's chances of advancing to the playoffs and winning the Super Bowl.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Just another resource. While this is not as good a pure simulator as the NYT and ESPN ones, I think it's the best at estimating playoff chances based on results. Uses Elo system from chess.
 
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