HCE
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- Apr 28, 2012
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I see a lot of people are unhappy with what the Dolphins have done this draft (at least after the Tua pick) and wanted to share some thoughts and maybe douse some fires.
1) People are upset that we've taken a lot of upside/potential/developmental guys instead of guys that will plug in day one.
We're not a team loading up for a run at the Super Bowl next year. I think everyone realizes that. We're building for the future. And last year we did a good job coaching up a roster that was being stripped of talent in trade after trade, so that gives some hope that they'll be able to develop these guys into solid starters or better down the road.
2) People are upset that we didn't draft a running back.
See the point above and then consider that running back is a position where players more often than not can be effective from day one and that they have short careers. Next year is definitely gonna be a developmental one. The preseason and even season will likely be affected by the ongoing pandemic. We'll probably start Fitz at QB for all or most of the year while Tua sits and gets acclimated; soaking up the playbook and learning from the vets. You do NOT want to throw him in too soon behind a shaky line and have him take a ton of sacks. Next year we'll also have a number of high draft picks and the team will hopefully develop into something solid. The year after that might be when we start becoming a threat in the playoffs. This is of course just a hypothetical, but why waste two years of a running back's limited shelf life on that? Better to grab one in next year's draft or the one after that, when the rest of the team is ready.
Besides, we signed a running back in free agency to be the starter. I think we have bigger needs, especially on the offensive line. You'd really like it to be a solid group before inserting Tua in the lineup.
3) People are upset that we didn't trade up enough and missed out on players.
First of all, you need a willing trade partner. I see people upset that we didn't trade up with the 49ers like the Buccs did to take Wirfs. Well, the Niners may not have been interested in trading down that far because then they might lose the guy they wanted, Kinlaw. Nothing you can do about that.
The second point I'd like to make is that we haven't seen the Dolphins big board. I'm not a talent evaluator. I don't scout or meet with players. I assume the same is true for a lot of you. So we go by what we see online in mock drafts and read in scouting reports to determine who we think is a good prospect or good value at a certain draft position. That's fine, but you have to realize that mock drafts aren't answer keys. The people doing mock drafts are all looking over each other's shoulders, that's why they're all so similar. Look at this year were suddenly everyone had us taking Herbert over Tua. So everyone putting a guy in the first round of their mock draft doesn't have to mean much more than Mel Kiper or someone put him there and everyone else got on the bandwagon. So someone getting perceived value picking a guy later than projected in mock drafts doesn't necessarily mean that the player in question is destined to be better than the next guy taken. And if you read articles of the type "2005 draft revisited" where they re-do the draft based on how players actually turned out, you'll know that the draft process is far from an exact science anyway. A pick that may look like a reach the day after the draft may look like a stroke of genius in hindsight.
Third of all, sometimes teams do surprising things. The Saints picked Ruiz one slot ahead of us even if it wasn't a need for them. If Miami had traded up a few slots to pick him, I'm pretty sure people would have complained that he would have been there at 26 and that we gave up a high draft pick for nothing. Even doing a draft in franchise mode in Madden will teach you that you can't predict where everyone is picked. You have a finite number of picks and so you prioritize based on who you think will be available where. Sometimes it works out better than other times.
Also, seriously, don't get too hung up on reports of "we would have picked this guy if team X didn't pick him in front of us" and feel like we missed out or settled for a lesser player when simple logic dictates that players are taken in order of best to worst. Some team picking behind us is saying the same thing about our draft selections.
Look, I'm not trying to argue whether we've had a good draft so far or not. Frankly, I'm not in a position to know. Maybe I'm just playing devil's advocate to some degree, but I see too many people despairing over what might have been or simply being too gloom and doom for no apparent reason other than maybe being a glass-half-empty kind of guy.
Take a breath. We got Tua. We got a lot of talented young players coming in this year and next. We have a head coach who looks great so far and who players want to play for. The future is looking bright. Try to enjoy the ride, at least as long as it hasn't derailed yet.
1) People are upset that we've taken a lot of upside/potential/developmental guys instead of guys that will plug in day one.
We're not a team loading up for a run at the Super Bowl next year. I think everyone realizes that. We're building for the future. And last year we did a good job coaching up a roster that was being stripped of talent in trade after trade, so that gives some hope that they'll be able to develop these guys into solid starters or better down the road.
2) People are upset that we didn't draft a running back.
See the point above and then consider that running back is a position where players more often than not can be effective from day one and that they have short careers. Next year is definitely gonna be a developmental one. The preseason and even season will likely be affected by the ongoing pandemic. We'll probably start Fitz at QB for all or most of the year while Tua sits and gets acclimated; soaking up the playbook and learning from the vets. You do NOT want to throw him in too soon behind a shaky line and have him take a ton of sacks. Next year we'll also have a number of high draft picks and the team will hopefully develop into something solid. The year after that might be when we start becoming a threat in the playoffs. This is of course just a hypothetical, but why waste two years of a running back's limited shelf life on that? Better to grab one in next year's draft or the one after that, when the rest of the team is ready.
Besides, we signed a running back in free agency to be the starter. I think we have bigger needs, especially on the offensive line. You'd really like it to be a solid group before inserting Tua in the lineup.
3) People are upset that we didn't trade up enough and missed out on players.
First of all, you need a willing trade partner. I see people upset that we didn't trade up with the 49ers like the Buccs did to take Wirfs. Well, the Niners may not have been interested in trading down that far because then they might lose the guy they wanted, Kinlaw. Nothing you can do about that.
The second point I'd like to make is that we haven't seen the Dolphins big board. I'm not a talent evaluator. I don't scout or meet with players. I assume the same is true for a lot of you. So we go by what we see online in mock drafts and read in scouting reports to determine who we think is a good prospect or good value at a certain draft position. That's fine, but you have to realize that mock drafts aren't answer keys. The people doing mock drafts are all looking over each other's shoulders, that's why they're all so similar. Look at this year were suddenly everyone had us taking Herbert over Tua. So everyone putting a guy in the first round of their mock draft doesn't have to mean much more than Mel Kiper or someone put him there and everyone else got on the bandwagon. So someone getting perceived value picking a guy later than projected in mock drafts doesn't necessarily mean that the player in question is destined to be better than the next guy taken. And if you read articles of the type "2005 draft revisited" where they re-do the draft based on how players actually turned out, you'll know that the draft process is far from an exact science anyway. A pick that may look like a reach the day after the draft may look like a stroke of genius in hindsight.
Third of all, sometimes teams do surprising things. The Saints picked Ruiz one slot ahead of us even if it wasn't a need for them. If Miami had traded up a few slots to pick him, I'm pretty sure people would have complained that he would have been there at 26 and that we gave up a high draft pick for nothing. Even doing a draft in franchise mode in Madden will teach you that you can't predict where everyone is picked. You have a finite number of picks and so you prioritize based on who you think will be available where. Sometimes it works out better than other times.
Also, seriously, don't get too hung up on reports of "we would have picked this guy if team X didn't pick him in front of us" and feel like we missed out or settled for a lesser player when simple logic dictates that players are taken in order of best to worst. Some team picking behind us is saying the same thing about our draft selections.
Look, I'm not trying to argue whether we've had a good draft so far or not. Frankly, I'm not in a position to know. Maybe I'm just playing devil's advocate to some degree, but I see too many people despairing over what might have been or simply being too gloom and doom for no apparent reason other than maybe being a glass-half-empty kind of guy.
Take a breath. We got Tua. We got a lot of talented young players coming in this year and next. We have a head coach who looks great so far and who players want to play for. The future is looking bright. Try to enjoy the ride, at least as long as it hasn't derailed yet.
