Three Running Backs in Round One? | Page 4 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Three Running Backs in Round One?

ckparrothead said:
I just don't understand why Najee Harris going in the 1st round would be "higher than normal".

He's a physical phenom. Former top recruit. He is a WONDERFUL human being. Everyone that speaks to him feels impact. He's averaged 6 yards per carry pretty much every year at Alabama. He scored 26 TDs this year. He's an elite level pass catcher at the position, and I don't use that term lightly. He blocks.

The foundational layer of the Alabama offense is not the passing game featuring the quarterback and all of those receivers. It's not. This year really showed that as they lost Tua Tagovailoa, Henry Ruggs, and Jerry Jeudy to the NFL, and lost Jaylen Waddle for all but four games, and the offense still trucked through the SEC en route to an NCAA Championship.

The foundational layer of the Alabama offense is one principle, which is itself a mindset: if the defense keeps two safeties back, they're going to pound you into the dirt with the ground game, and you're not going to stop it until you start crowding the line of scrimmage.

Everything is layered on top of that foundation. The RPO layer is an extension of the ground game, like a long hand-off that takes advantage of defensive movement, similar to a screen. The play-pass layer is an extension off the RPO layer. It's built to look and smell like an RPO. The passing game which features a bunch of crossers is there to lighten up the pressure on pass protectors who have to protect for longer stretches of time on slower developing play-passes. But all of this starts with that foundational principle, which is that if you're going to sit back with two deep safeties, Alabama are going to crush you on the ground.

You could look at Alabama and say, well they always have really productive runners. And yes that's true. But they've also had really good running backs that made their impact on the NFL. Look what Josh Jacobs has done for the Raiders. Look at Derrick Henry. Look at Kenyan Drake. Look at Mark Ingram. Look at Eddie Lacy, before he ate his way into obscurity. Damien Harris was superb in New England this year, but nobody noticed because nobody cares about New England in the post-Brady era. Even T.J. Yeldon made an impact early in his career in Jacksonville.

The only duds have really been Bo Scarbrough (so far, PFF has actually graded him well in 180 snaps he's done through the first two years of his career) and Trent Richardson, and I'd say especially with the latter player there were some other things going on there that weren't just about talent. Whether Trent Richardson flamed out in the NFL or not, not even the most jaded will go so far as to say he was not really a good college back after all.

For two years now, Najee Harris has been the lead driver of that foundational layer. They lost a bunch of passing game talent, so they leaned on him even more, and they were just as good.

I just don't get, "higher than normal" in that context. Saquon Barkley went #2 overall. Leonard Fournette and Ezekiel Elliott went #4 overall. Christian McCaffrey went #8 overall. Todd Gurley went #10 overall. Melvin Gordon went #15 overall. Josh Jacobs went #24 overall. Penny went #27 overall. Rashaad Penny went #27 overall. Sony Michel went #31 overall. Clyde Edwards-Helaire went #32 overall.

That's 11 first rounders in the last 6 drafts, and 5 of them went Top 10.

So how would Najee Harris going mid-1st round be, "higher than normal"?
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This is very nice and on point. The entire premise of the RPO was to make defenses pay for loading the box against the run. But Saban requires his OC's to structure their offense around his principles - which as you stated is going to be running the football if he can help it. That will never change at Alabama. Under Saban we will always run the same offensive terminology but every new OC brings a different design and flow to the offense.

From a philosophical standpoint, New England's offense and Bama's are similar in their design to do the same thing - take what is given. No matter what defense is devised it can't cover the whole field with the same effectiveness - therefore the offense strives to be able to attack whatever part you've defended the least.

In the end, the other team has a choice. Die quickly with long strikes or be bludgeoned to death. But death was imminent. They want you to have that choice. Like I said many times, you could either choose Najee running for 150+ or Mac Jones throwing for 400+. If you chose neither, you got both. I may not live to see another offense as good as the one Sarkisian led this year.

Under the current rule set in college football no defense can totally shut down a great college offense. Not even Saban's. Which is what he realized and was able to morph into a bit of a different type coach. It's what the great one's do. Coach Bryant did it when he suddenly broke out the Wishbone on USC in 1971 and ran it until he died. The RPO is impossible to defend consistently when you can run the football well. When those lineman fire out run blocking every snap, the choice on what you have to do next has already been made for you.

However, I think play action is probably more effective in the NFL as a whole just due to the buffer rule being different. You're only allowed the 1 yard downfield as opposed to 3 in college. So you have to be more limited in the types of RPO's you can run effectively. I think you kinda have to run it more off split zone type plays.

NajeeLoco the Crimson Bull is a 1st round talent but plays a day 2 position. He's a lock pro but he's not the dynamo Derrick Henry is. It took Saban and RB's coach Charles Huff a lot of work to get Najee to where he is. He still has a tendency to miss the hole and try to bounce it outside another gap or two and leave yards on the field. But his ball security and skillset are top notch. I just think teams have a hard time getting backs to live up the expectations if you take 'em top 20. Much less top 10.

Even when they do then you have to pay 'em and that's typically when your team begins to fall apart.
 
Pachyderm_Wave said:
This is very nice and on point. The entire premise of the RPO was to make defenses pay for loading the box against the run. But Saban requires his OC's to structure their offense around his principles - which as you stated is going to be running the football if he can help it. That will never change at Alabama. Under Saban we will always run the same offensive terminology but every new OC brings a different design and flow to the offense.

From a philosophical standpoint, New England's offense and Bama's are similar in their design to do the same thing - take what is given. No matter what defense is devised it can't cover the whole field with the same effectiveness - therefore the offense strives to be able to attack whatever part you've defended the least.

In the end, the other team has a choice. Die quickly with long strikes or be bludgeoned to death. But death was imminent. They want you to have that choice. Like I said many times, you could either choose Najee running for 150+ or Mac Jones throwing for 400+. If you chose neither, you got both. I may not live to see another offense as good as the one Sarkisian led this year.

Under the current rule set in college football no defense can totally shut down a great college offense. Not even Saban's. Which is what he realized and was able to morph into a bit of a different type coach. It's what the great one's do. Coach Bryant did it when he suddenly broke out the Wishbone on USC in 1971 and ran it until he died. The RPO is impossible to defend consistently when you can run the football well. When those lineman fire out run blocking every snap, the choice on what you have to do next has already been made for you.

However, I think play action is probably more effective in the NFL as a whole just due to the buffer rule being different. You're only allowed the 1 yard downfield as opposed to 3 in college. So you have to be more limited in the types of RPO's you can run effectively. I think you kinda have to run it more off split zone type plays.

NajeeLoco the Crimson Bull is a 1st round talent but plays a day 2 position. He's a lock pro but he's not the dynamo Derrick Henry is. It took Saban and RB's coach Charles Huff a lot of work to get Najee to where he is. He still has a tendency to miss the hole and try to bounce it outside another gap or two and leave yards on the field. But his ball security and skillset are top notch. I just think teams have a hard time getting backs to live up the expectations if you take 'em top 20. Much less top 10.

Even when they do then you have to pay 'em and that's typically when your team begins to fall apart.
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The evolution of Saban's approach and of Alabama's offensive approach has really been pretty interesting to watch.

The thing about the Derrick Henry example, and I agree with you 100% by the way as I was a big fan of Derrick Henry coming out, but the thing about it is people tend to use Derrick Henry going in the 2nd round as the reference point....as if that were the correct decision.

Flatly, it was not. Those who held Henry in higher esteem than the 2nd round were correct. He should have gone much higher than that.

Right now you have people saying that Ryan Tannehill is only a top echelon AFC quarterback because of Derrick Henry. And then you have those same people turn around and say you can't take so-and-so 1st round because Derrick Henry went 2nd round. These things do not compute. If Derrick Henry is so valuable that he can single-handedly turn the very definition of a mediocre quarterback into an upper echelon quarterback, then Henry's value is wildly higher than his 2nd round positioning. They just...got it wrong. It happens.

I don't think we should be using poor decisions as the basis to make another poor decision.

Running backs are probably only second to quarterbacks in terms of their ability to affect the game on offense. I get that durability is a huge concern and kind of an unknowable thing. And I'd be nervous about giving ANY running back that second contract, whether it's Najee Harris or Derrick Henry. But I'm not going to hesitate to take a guy in the 1st round that is this much of a slam dunk to positively affect my offense.
 
ckparrothead said:
The evolution of Saban's approach and of Alabama's offensive approach has really been pretty interesting to watch.

The thing about the Derrick Henry example, and I agree with you 100% by the way as I was a big fan of Derrick Henry coming out, but the thing about it is people tend to use Derrick Henry going in the 2nd round as the reference point....as if that were the correct decision.

Flatly, it was not. Those who held Henry in higher esteem than the 2nd round were correct. He should have gone much higher than that.

Right now you have people saying that Ryan Tannehill is only a top echelon AFC quarterback because of Derrick Henry. And then you have those same people turn around and say you can't take so-and-so 1st round because Derrick Henry went 2nd round. These things do not compute. If Derrick Henry is so valuable that he can single-handedly turn the very definition of a mediocre quarterback into an upper echelon quarterback, then Henry's value is wildly higher than his 2nd round positioning. They just...got it wrong. It happens.

I don't think we should be using poor decisions as the basis to make another poor decision.

Running backs are probably only second to quarterbacks in terms of their ability to affect the game on offense. I get that durability is a huge concern and kind of an unknowable thing. And I'd be nervous about giving ANY running back that second contract, whether it's Najee Harris or Derrick Henry. But I'm not going to hesitate to take a guy in the 1st round that is this much of a slam dunk to positively affect my offense.
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I mean I understand where you're coming from, but I still think 2nd round is probably the correct decision even for Derrick Henry. And it's not because Henry was the 45th best player in the draft because he wasn't. He was much better than that.

The issue is that Derrick Henry is such a unique specimen that a kid like Najee isn't going to affect your offense in the same way. What I mean is that you have to give Henry such a heavy workload for him to have that type of impact on your offense and a QB like Tannehill. There are no other backs that can handle the workload he does.

So while no matter how much you pay Henry, yeah he's earning his money no matter how much it is. But he's finally going to run out of gas before you can reach the finish line in the NFL. I'm not sure I subscribe to the theory that Najee can have the impact on an offense that Henry does. Or even that Nick Chubb does. He's just not quite that guy to me.
 
ckparrothead said:
The evolution of Saban's approach and of Alabama's offensive approach has really been pretty interesting to watch.

The thing about the Derrick Henry example, and I agree with you 100% by the way as I was a big fan of Derrick Henry coming out, but the thing about it is people tend to use Derrick Henry going in the 2nd round as the reference point....as if that were the correct decision.

Flatly, it was not. Those who held Henry in higher esteem than the 2nd round were correct. He should have gone much higher than that.

Right now you have people saying that Ryan Tannehill is only a top echelon AFC quarterback because of Derrick Henry. And then you have those same people turn around and say you can't take so-and-so 1st round because Derrick Henry went 2nd round. These things do not compute. If Derrick Henry is so valuable that he can single-handedly turn the very definition of a mediocre quarterback into an upper echelon quarterback, then Henry's value is wildly higher than his 2nd round positioning. They just...got it wrong. It happens.

I don't think we should be using poor decisions as the basis to make another poor decision.

Running backs are probably only second to quarterbacks in terms of their ability to affect the game on offense. I get that durability is a huge concern and kind of an unknowable thing. And I'd be nervous about giving ANY running back that second contract, whether it's Najee Harris or Derrick Henry. But I'm not going to hesitate to take a guy in the 1st round that is this much of a slam dunk to positively affect my offense.
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I guess the problem I have with 1st round RBs is that you are making somewhat of a commitment to putting that guy in charge of your running game for the duration of his rookie contract. Like you said, RBs are 2nd to QBs in the way they affect your offense, but the problem is a RB will most often be the only RB on the field on any given play. In other words, the only way to justify that pick is hoping that guy is comparable to the best RB in the NFL, this really doesnt leave a whole lot of margin of error. IMO
 
Feverdream said:
I can see Trey Sermon as a valuable committee back for us... if we resist the temptation to draft a RB early, Trey could probably be had in the 4th round or so. Like Harris, he is a bit over-aged and is likely a one-contract player, but as a 4th rounder, that is much more acceptable than in the first or late second.

With Sermon, Gaskin, and Ahmad... we'd have a nice stable of RBs with different skill sets, and could game-plan the one who worked best for the individual game.

At the end of last year, I'm not sure there was a more powerful back in college football, and the only thing holding down his value is that he was knocked out of the Championship game.
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Williams in second round and call it a day..not a Sermon fan at all..
 
BigNastyFish said:
This is so true -- the board can be wicked cruel sometimes -- when you're like a few picks away from one of your prime targets and some rude GM bastard plucks YOUR GUY! I hate that ****! Even with 4 picks in the top 50 odds are we're gonna get clipped somewhere! Trade down could help for sure -- but then you miss on 3 through whatever your 1st R1 landing spot is. It's ALL the talent gone that you have to consider -- and offset by the additional R2 etc. you picked up. Unless you get a bonanza it's not as automatic as some seem to present.
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Every team has a pretty good idea what all the other clubs are looking for.
 
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