To MOCK or not to MOCK...

[Finole]

The best way to predict the future is to look at the past. With Bill Parcells as our new VP of Everything Football and Jeff Ireland as our new GM, the best way to try and figure out what they'll do here in Miami is to look at what they did in Dallas.

When you look at the Dallas Cowboys' last five drafts, the first thing you will notice is how many and how often trades occurred. With that in mind, any mock draft that doesn't have the Fins making at least one trade just isn't realistic.

Also, any mock draft before free agency is basically useless. The chain reaction of one major free agent signing can throw off a mock draft beyond repair. For instance, let's say the Fins sign Isaac Sopoaga (from San Fran) to play NT in our new 3-4 defensive alignment. Any mock draft with us taking Glenn Dorsey 1st is now pretty much null and void. Let's say after Dorsey you have us taking Gosder Cherilus at the top of the 2nd. But what if after signing Sopoaga, the Fins decide that strengthening the o-line is the next priority and draft Jake Long. Now Cherilus doesn't seem so likely in the 2nd round. So instead of Cherilus the Fins draft a CB. Now that CB the mock draft has us taking late in the 2nd or at the top of the 3rd doesn't really make sense. And so on and so on... It's a domino effect.

Plus we don't even know if we're going with a 3-4 defensive alignment yet. What if Sparano has a presser tomorrow and says, "We just don't have the personnel to play a 3-4 so we'll be running a 4-3 defense next year." Now, all of sudden that mock with Glenn Dorsey looks a lot more plausible.

And finally, remember what I said about looking to the past. In last year's draft there were 100 players with a grade from the 7th round all the way as high as the 3rd round who didn't get drafted. 100 players! What that means is: That guy you really like in the 4th round might go undrafted. That TE you don't think could slide past the 5th might go in the 7th.

It's a numbers game.

Let's take a look at last year's 4th round...

There were only 15 players who had a 4th round projection:
Fred Bennett CB South Carolina
Dashon Goldson FS Washington
Marvin White FS TCU
Scott Chandler TE Iowa
Martrez Milner TE Georgia
Antwan Barnes OLB FIU
Leroy Harris C North Carolina St
Paul Soliai DT Utah
Ryan McBean DT Oklahoma St
Baraka Atkins DE Miami
Jay Moore DE Nebraska
Allen Barbre OT Missouri Southern St
Mansfield Wrotto OG Georgia Tech
Zak DeOssie ILB Brown
Chris Davis WR FSU


There were 8 players projected to go higher (the 2nd or 3rd round):
Antonio Pittman RB Ohio St
Michael Bush RB Louisville
Tanard Jackson FS Syracuse
Doug Free OT Northern Illinois
Josh Beekman OG Boston College
Manuel Ramirez OG Texas Tech
A.J. Davis CB North Carolina St
Marcus Thomas DT Florida


And 10 players projected to go lower (the 5th, 6th or 7th round):
Daniel Sepulveda P Baylor
Adam Podlesh P Maryland
Brian Robison DE Texas
Kareem Brown DT Miami
Joe Cohen DT Florida
Stephen Nicholas OLB South Florida
Clint Session OLB Pittsburgh
Isaiah Stanback QB Washington
Ryne Robinson WR Miami (OH)
Dwayne Wright RB Fresno St
Le'Ron McClain FB Alabama
Brannon Condren SS Troy


As well as 3 guys nobody expected to get drafted at all:
John Bowie CB Cincinnati
Brian Smith OLB Missouri
Jermon Bushrod OT Towson

 

[shaunm000]

Dude. Nice Post.... I must read it a few times!

 

[Dolfan4life34]

great post agree wit you one hundred percent but it is still fun to do mocks

 

[Finole]

great post agree wit you one hundred percent but it is still fun to do mocks

Absolutely. It's fun to put one together, and it's fun to read them. But I think the rules should be a little different this year. If you're trying to predict which players we take, take a stab at what trades we might make. We might even trade JT for a draft pick.

The uncertainty surrounding our team right now makes it way too early for a mock draft resembling anything close to realistic. That's all. Whether you're reading one or making one, just remember to throw realism out the window until at least Mid-March.

And comments such as "that player won't be on the board" need to be tempered in regards to anything beyond the 2nd round. Especially prior to the Combine.