To Win or not to Win and how it might effect QB selection | Page 2 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

To Win or not to Win and how it might effect QB selection

Thank you, Ky. That's one hell of a list.

And why is a Bills fan making the most sense on this forum? Shame. Thank you to, Peace.

Im tired of posting the same thing on other threads: first pick addicts, calm down. The reason they haggled for so many picks is for exactly the current situation- move up if need be.

I'm against a trade up but will trust the process regardless of the decision.

We are worrying about the wrong thing, BTW. Forget what picks we have, it's what Grier is going to do with the picks.

So shift your prayers/wants from the #1 pick to praying/wanting a #1 GM.
 
Kyndig said:
my purpose was to look at where the top qbs in the league today where drafted. Not where the bottom half where because the bottom half are either still developing or they are average to below average. There is nothing “invalid” about this analysis, it wasn’t meant to look at the below average QBs, they were drafted all over the place. More interesting to me was to look at the above average QBs and see where they were drafted.

As for the last 3 college prospects needing more development, probably, and Herbert too, and probably Love. So what? We have Fitz, whomever comes in can sit until they are ready and learn from our veteran, or if they want to bring in another veteran, whatever.
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Actually, listing the bottom QBs could help your case. If 14 of 17 QBs were #1 picks (they're not), it would be further evidence either #1 picks are overvalued or #1 picks can't overcome a bad team. And it also can prove your point they are "they are average to below average' - INCLUDING any top picks, Admittedly, if there are no #1 picks in the bottom teams (there are), it would hurt your case. Nonetheless, to go on a tangent, there are 28 NFL caliber starting QBs for 32 teams, thus, the churning every year and it explains why average QBs get such large contracts. Personally, I think the quality of the team matters as much as the QB, with RARE exceptions. Evaluating the bottom QBs may prove your point.
Back to topic, no amount of arguing can negate the value of having top picks. while the top picks fail over half the time (even 'can't miss' picks), lower picks fail 3/4 of the time. No spin can change that
 
fansinceGWilson said:
Actually, listing the bottom QBs could help your case. If 14 of 17 QBs were #1 picks (they're not), it would be further evidence either #1 picks are overvalued or #1 picks can't overcome a bad team. And it also can prove your point they are "they are average to below average' - INCLUDING any top picks, Admittedly, if there are no #1 picks in the bottom teams (there are), it would hurt your case. Nonetheless, to go on a tangent, there are 28 NFL caliber starting QBs for 32 teams, thus, the churning every year and it explains why average QBs get such large contracts. Personally, I think the quality of the team matters as much as the QB, with RARE exceptions. Evaluating the bottom QBs may prove your point.
Back to topic, no amount of arguing can negate the value of having top picks. while the top picks fail over half the time (even 'can't miss' picks), lower picks fail 3/4 of the time. No spin can change that
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We have 20 years of expertise in drafting bottom half quarterbacks, i don't think any more analysis is required there. My thread and point was simply to look at the best quarterbacks and see where they were drafted. It doesn't matter where the below average ones were drafted, we have already been there. The point was how many of the top QBs playing today were drafted number 1 over all, in the top 5, top 10, and later because we will surely be drafting in the top 5 or top 10 this year, but probably not number 1 or 2. That was all. If you want to start a thread looking at the back half of the league in terms of quality of quarterbacks and figure out where the sucky ones were drafted, knock yourself out. But that doesn't invalidate what I was doing because I wasn't doing that nor do I care about it because I am a Miami Dolphins fan and I know very well that my team has demonstrated incredible competence at drafting the wrong Quarterback over the past 20 years. I was more interested in studying where the right quarterbacks were drafted from and base that discussion on the fact of tanking for the number 1 overall pick, or not worrying about it based on the current landscape of the top QBs today. If you want to make a thread studying the crappy QBs in the league, knock yourself out, I won't promise that I'll read it though.[/QUOTE]
 
Kyndig said:
my purpose was to look at where the top qbs in the league today where drafted. Not where the bottom half where because the bottom half are either still developing or they are average to below average And we have 20 years of experience of getting those kind of bottom half QBs, in fact you might say we are experts at it, so I didn’t see any point wasting anytime on that. I thought I’d focus on what hadMy point was to analyze where the top QBs today were drafted and to see how many of them were ranked in the top 2 or 3 picks


We have 20 years of expertise in drafting bottom half quarterbacks, i don't think any more analysis is required there. My thread and point was simply to look at the best quarterbacks and see where they were drafted. It doesn't matter where the below average ones were drafted, we have already been there. The point was how many of the top QBs playing today were drafted number 1 over all, in the top 5, top 10, and later because we will surely be drafting in the top 5 or top 10 this year, but probably not number 1 or 2. That was all. If you want to start a thread looking at the back half of the league in terms of quality of quarterbacks and figure out where the sucky ones were drafted, knock yourself out. But that doesn't invalidate what I was doing because I wasn't doing that nor do I care about it because I am a Miami Dolphins fan and I know very well that my team has demonstrated incredible competence at drafting the wrong Quarterback over the past 20 years. I was more interested in studying where the right quarterbacks were drafted from.
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Again, anaylsis of the bottom QBs could support your case. Not trying to disagree. I'll leave it there' we disagree
 
I really liked the original post, though I thought FSGWilson's post made a great point as well.
As I have been pondering the last couple of weeks since our "winning streak" started, I am also wondering how many QB's have failed due to poor/lack of coaching, and how many have succeeded due to that coaching, or that system, and how much draft position really matters, and how much coaching matters. And I suppose that could go for any position. And I do realize it is probably an impossible task to quantify.
But to throw something out there: Think of Andy Reid. That man knows how to coach a QB. When McNabb would go down, he would stick a scrub in there (AJ Feeley anyone?) and he would make that QB look great. Then AJ Feeley would bounce somewhere else, and well, we know how that went. McNabb was great under Reid, but under Shanahan?(I realize McNabb was near the end, but still, he was terrible in Washington) Look at Lamar Jackson in Baltimore. I think Harbaugh is a great coach. Is Lamar Jackson succeeding due to his own ability(obviously, to some degree) but how much is coaching- putting him in a position to do things he does well). Mahomes has great ability- would he be the same guy had another team drafted him, or has Reid figured a way to get that insane production from him.
I think Shula was a great coach. He knew how to use personnel. Is it a fluke he had two hall of fame QB's, or did he recognize how to use them, then use them to their greatest ability, getting HOF production from them?
Would Brady be the same guy without Bellicheck?
All this getting me to my point: which is really a question - all these guys are talented that are getting drafted high, but some still bust. How much does coaching affect the success of these "elite" choices(might Burrow fail in Cincinnati due to coaching whereas he might prosper in New England due to coaching), and how much does coaching raise the ability of a lesser drafted player to become competent or even great?
 
Kamelion4291 said:
As my dream of Tua is currently on life support, I've been more and more interested at trading down and taking someone like Jalen Hurts. The way he's playing and the way Lamar Jackson is playing, I feel like he could be that undervalued guy.
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Hurts and Jackson are 2 different type of players
 
Bopkin02 said:
I really liked the original post, though I thought FSGWilson's post made a great point as well.
As I have been pondering the last couple of weeks since our "winning streak" started, I am also wondering how many QB's have failed due to poor/lack of coaching, and how many have succeeded due to that coaching, or that system, and how much draft position really matters, and how much coaching matters. And I suppose that could go for any position. And I do realize it is probably an impossible task to quantify.
But to throw something out there: Think of Andy Reid. That man knows how to coach a QB. When McNabb would go down, he would stick a scrub in there (AJ Feeley anyone?) and he would make that QB look great. Then AJ Feeley would bounce somewhere else, and well, we know how that went. McNabb was great under Reid, but under Shanahan?(I realize McNabb was near the end, but still, he was terrible in Washington) Look at Lamar Jackson in Baltimore. I think Harbaugh is a great coach. Is Lamar Jackson succeeding due to his own ability(obviously, to some degree) but how much is coaching- putting him in a position to do things he does well). Mahomes has great ability- would he be the same guy had another team drafted him, or has Reid figured a way to get that insane production from him.
I think Shula was a great coach. He knew how to use personnel. Is it a fluke he had two hall of fame QB's, or did he recognize how to use them, then use them to their greatest ability, getting HOF production from them?
Would Brady be the same guy without Bellicheck?
All this getting me to my point: which is really a question - all these guys are talented that are getting drafted high, but some still bust. How much does coaching affect the success of these "elite" choices(might Burrow fail in Cincinnati due to coaching whereas he might prosper in New England due to coaching), and how much does coaching raise the ability of a lesser drafted player to become competent or even great?
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Yes, this is a big and important point. Coaching and player development is important. How many players have we drafted that ended up leaving and doing really well on other teams? If this coaching staff can make this Motley Crue of cast offs and undrafted players buy in and play hard, smart, and disciplined to the maximum of their ability, then we are going to be alright. And whilst Tua in my opinion is head and shoulders above the rest of the prospects and and argument can be made for Burrow, there are at least 5 other prospects that in the right environment, scheme, and coaching/development can grow into very good franchise qb’s even if they sit for a year. What you said was well articulated.
 
Sonn_pop said:
Hurts and Jackson are 2 different type of players
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Jackson is probably faster, but I guess the similarity is that they both were successful in similar schemes that emphasized that whole Run Pass Option (RPO) scheme where they both do quite a bit of damage with their legs as well as can make some great throws, so I can kind of see the comparison. The Ravens drafted Jackson and designed a scheme and surrounded him with players that emphasized his strengths. They let him be him. If a team Drafted Jalen Hurts, that team would probably be advised to do the same, and the scheme would probably look similar to what Oklahoma and Baltimore are running now.
 
fansinceGWilson said:
Again, anaylsis of the bottom QBs could support your case. Not trying to disagree. I'll leave it there' we disagree
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I understand where you are coming from but in your original reply you seemed to suggest that my analysis wasn’t valid just because I didn’t consider the bottom half, so that’s probably why I got a bit sensitive about it because I didn’t think that was fair, but whatever, happy to move on.
 
Great OP, and great support post from GWilson (IMO he wasn't suggesting OP was invalid, he was saying how you could support it even further).

The biggest case study I think about when I imagine how this team is going to go after their answer at QB from the draft, is Brady. Drafted #199, impressed NOBODY, looked like a butter boy coming into the league, didn't have elite skills, etc. He was coachable though...and disciplined...and by some accounts, football intelligent. He wasn't asked to be the team's savior, he wasn't asked to execute GW drives in the 4th quarter, he was asked to play smart, manage the game, play within the structure of the system. His first year he threw for 2800 yards, threw 18 TDs to 12 INTs. I don't believe for 1/10th of a second that he would have evolved into 2019 Brady on any other team, under any other HC...teams don't have the time and patience to let a QB develop like BB did with Brady.

I'm not saying wait until the 6th round to find the QB of the future, but IDGAF if it's not the 1-2 pick either. Flo has shown me his system is true and has a solid foundation. And he knows FAR more about the game of football than I ever will, so whoever he signs off on, is good with me, until proven otherwise.

I'm 100% with the other posters in a few threads stating having the right team of coaches is far more valuable to get established first, than a QB. Put Tua on a Gase team and what would you have? You just watch...if Cincy keeps their HC and drafts a QB high, they're gonna fail.
 
I can't stand people spouting history lessons when debating what QB to take.. I don't care what school they went to, what position they are drafted in relation to previous QB drafts, or if they crossed a black cat on the way to the podium.. Watch game film, film never lies..

I can tell you Tua has put out some of the best game film i've seen from a respect of reading the field, accuracy, pocket presence he is off the charts. Burrow is a one read and throw guy at this point but he is accurate as hell and has a good arm.. Fromm has the physical tools, Accurate, but he plays gun shy and mentally does not read defenses that great.

The guy i like from WSU Gordon is interesting and worth a late round flier, definitly a gunslinger with a decent enough arm and pretty good accuracy, could be a steal in round 3 or 5
 
If we don’t land Tua or Burrow with our own pick then I would,look at what she available in a later 1st rnd or 2nd round (Fromm for example) but I would then make a big play for Lawrence the year afterward if it doesn’t work out. I would throw anything at the team who land no 1pick next season to get Lawrence but wouldn’t trade any pix this year and would build my squad up with the pix. Ultimately we could even keep FP and Rosen for one more year and throw the kitchen sink for Lawrence while building the rest of the squad up. My opinion
 
I think people raise previous years as it can be a tangible source for comparison....... sometimes
 
Gonzofinfan said:
I can't stand people spouting history lessons when debating what QB to take.. I don't care what school they went to, what position they are drafted in relation to previous QB drafts, or if they crossed a black cat on the way to the podium.. Watch game film, film never lies..

I can tell you Tua has put out some of the best game film i've seen from a respect of reading the field, accuracy, pocket presence he is off the charts. Burrow is a one read and throw guy at this point but he is accurate as hell and has a good arm.. Fromm has the physical tools, Accurate, but he plays gun shy and mentally does not read defenses that great.

The guy i like from WSU Gordon is interesting and worth a late round flier, definitly a gunslinger with a decent enough arm and pretty good accuracy, could be a steal in round 3 or 5
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As a prior poster asked, would Brady be Brady if it hadn't been the Pats and Belicheat, would Tua be Tua if he wasn't playing for what had been the most dominant team in college for a decade?

That and the injuries is all I got on Tua because I've seen maybe 10% of him, if that. I have to give way to fans like you that I assume have seen a lot of him and I must join the marching band because the love is overwhelming.

The lovers are completely over-looking the injuries, though, and I don't undestand why. Trading up for a QB that has had 2 ankle surgeries is worrisome to me especially if we don't shore up the oline either via the draft or FA.
 
I can see this being something the front office tries to sell the fan base on after they end up with plan b or c at qb cause they won too many games.

of course they will never tell us it was plan b or c.

barry Jackson’s already said that before the season started miamis not settling for anything but elite at qb. Kinda hard to stick to that when you are letting other teams dictate in front of you. It’s fluid but cincinattis in tbe driver seat.

theres a lot of unwarranted faith in this front office draft decision maker wise on this board right now. I know that much.
 
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