To Win or not to Win and how it might effect QB selection | Page 3 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

To Win or not to Win and how it might effect QB selection

  1. Tua Tagovailoa - Definitely remains me of a mix of Steve Young/Drew Brees. Concerned about injuries but if on the board, I would stop being a Dolphins fan if Grier didn’t draft him.
  2. Joe Burrow - Remains me of a more mobile Brady.
  3. Justin Herbert - Has all of the physical tools but also concerned about injures. Read that he has had broken femurs and a clavicle.
  4. Jordan Love - Late first to early second. Could be a good QB in the right system with coaching. Definitely throws some beautiful passes.
  5. Jake Fromm - this guy isn’t an NFL QB. There is a reason why his coaches at UGA have handcuffed him this season. Definitely regressed from last year even though he is surrounded by talent.
  6. Jacob Eason - Canon arm but there is concern that he doesn’t put in the work. Had a year to learn Washington’s system and didn’t. Might not be able to grasp our system.
  7. Jalen Hurts - NO! This guy lost his job to a freshman Tua. He looked bad at Bama. Now in a super friendly system that makes bad to average QBs look good.
 
I can see this being something the front office tries to sell the fan base on after they end up with plan b or c at qb cause they won too many games.

of course they will never tell us it was plan b or c.

barry Jackson’s already said that before the season started miamis not settling for anything but elite at qb. Kinda hard to stick to that when you are letting other teams dictate in front of you. It’s fluid but cincinattis in tbe driver seat.

theres a lot of unwarranted faith in this front office draft decision maker wise on this board right now. I know that much.

Yeah, I’m very concerned with this FO. That’s why getting the first pick was so important. Makes the choice so much easier. If Tua and Burrow is off the board, then this FO will screw up the pick. Probably reach for someone like they reached for Harris.

I would also draft Gordon in the later rounds regardless of the other QB that we draft. Not bringing in competition during the Tannehill time was a mistake.
 
To win or not to win, that is the question. My opinion of the team this year and the season has evolved. decades of incompetence and mediocrity from the front office, various coaching staffs failing to develop players, etc. gave me despair to where I felt the best way for us to turn the corner was to tear it all down, and rebuild from the bottom up and ensure that we had a shot at the best or one of the best QB prospects in 2020.

However, good coaching and player development is critical and something that has been missing here for a long time, and this coaching staff is starting to make me a believer based on the results they are having with what they have to work with. I notice discipline, and the team playing as a team as opposed to a collection of individuals, so it got me to thinking, of all the say top 15 QBs in the league today, when were they actually drafted?

1 Lamar Jackson 32nd pick 1st round
2. Patrick Mahomes 10th Pick 1st round
3. Aaron Rodgers 24th Pick 1st round
4. Tom Brady 199th Pick 6th round
5. Drew Brees 32nd pick 2nd round
6. Russell Wilson 75th Pick 3rd Round
7. Deshaun Watson 12th Pick 1st Round
8. Matt Ryan 3rd Pick 1st Round
9. Matt Stafford 1st Pick 1st Round
10. Phillip Rivers 4th Pick 1st Round
11. Dak Prescott 135th Pick 4th Round
12. Ben Rothlisberger 11th Pick 1st round
13. Jared Goff 1st Pick 1st round
14. Kyler Murray 1st pick 1st round
15. Derek Carr 36th pick 2nd round

So, these are the top 15 QBs in the league today, the order isn't important, you could put Mahomes first, or Aaron Rodgers if you like, the point is, where were these guys drafted? So, by my count, 10 of the top 15 QBs were drafted in the first round, 6 of those were drafted in the top 10, 5 of them in the top5, with a further 3 of them drafted 1st overall (not counting Baker Mayfield who I wouldn't rate in the top 15 this year). 4 QBs were drafted in the first round but outside of the top 10. 5 were drafted outside of the first round with Brady drafted in the 6th round being a huge outlier.

My point? History tells me that as much as I really would love us to draft Tua there are good franchise QB's to be had outside of the top 2 or 3, and so I say, let's win away. As long as we get a top 10 pick, we should be in good shape to get a solid Franchise QB prospect, especially in this class. I didn't make a list of all of the busts, or the QBs who are in the bottom half of the league, but we can still put together a contending team with a solid QB with the current draft capital we have in 2020.

There is a solid group of QB's to choose from this year not to mention the 1 or 2 unknowns who jump to the top of the draft board unexpectedly.

By my count, there are least 7 solid QB prospects this year, some better than others, but plenty to take a chance on developing:

2020 QB Prospects

  1. Tua Tagovailoa
  2. Joe Burrow
  3. Justin Herbert
  4. Jordan Love
  5. Jake Fromm
  6. Jacob Eason
  7. Jalen Hurts
My point? I don't see us winning out, and I see us drafting in the top 10, and we will be just fine if we do, so go Phins! It's okay to root for this team to win, we will be just fine, let the chips fall where they may.

This is something I have been looking at this year as far as player situation vs player talent. It was an interest created by an article I read on SI found here. The premise is that QB success in the NFL is largely due to that player situation, how the coaches bring along that QB and that QB having the time to gain confidence without the added pressure of the being the savior of the front office and coaching staff. I posted this in the VIP under another thread, but ideas fit this thread well.

One of the things I have noticed is that a majority of QBs who have long term success in the NFL are ones who are put in a good situation. Not necessarily on a team built to win day one (some have), but with coaches who ease their transition into the NFL. It seems like the plan for the QB is as important as the QB's talent.

Rothlisberger, Wilson, Brady, Rogers, Brees...these were guys who were not the most "talented" QBs in the draft (some far from it), but they were put in situations in the NFL were the early success on the team was not on their shoulders. Big Ben's first few seasons were carried by one of the top run games, an elite defense, and an excellent head coach. Russel Wilson was in the same situation. In fact, for all of those QB's they were not the guys who had to carry the team until the 4th or so season into their careers.

Even QBs who have had early success, Mahomes, Luck went into excellent situations. Luck did go into a team that had the number 1 pick, but they were a playoff team the year before. The Chiefs had more offensive weapons then the US army and still allowed Mahomes a year of sitting and learning before giving him the reigns.

This doesn't mean I don't want Tua or that I am disappointed in missing out on Tua. I am, he is the best QB in college, but if 50% of the equation is the plan for the QB and coaching, seeing what this staff is able to do with what they have is just as encouraging. To see the player development, the fact that even after the way the season started, players are still playing hard and fighting is extremely encouraging.

If the staff is right, the plan is right, then the QB doesn't need to be the "most talented" in the draft...A good fit and plan can allow that player to have just as much success.

I bag on Fromm and his smaller hand do worry me, but I have a hard time not seeing him as a very good fit for the type of offense the team seems to want to run. They value smarts and accuracy, and Fromm has both.
 
As my dream of Tua is currently on life support, I've been more and more interested at trading down and taking someone like Jalen Hurts. The way he's playing and the way Lamar Jackson is playing, I feel like he could be that undervalued guy.
Jalen is no Lamar. I see him as a nice backup qb but not a success as a starter.

i dont mind if we take him because I could be wrong. But I wouldn’t burn a high draft pick ob him.
 
Jalen is no Lamar. I see him as a nice backup qb but not a success as a starter.

i dont mind if we take him because I could be wrong. But I wouldn’t burn a high draft pick ob him.
I dunno, man. Even though it's Oklahoma, he's killing it this year. He can absolutely run, and 73% completion % is 73% completion %; Also #1 in QBR.
 
I dunno, man. Even though it's Oklahoma, he's killing it this year. He can absolutely run, and 73% completion % is 73% completion %; Also #1 in QBR.

i dont trust Oklahoma offense translating to the nfl. He has huge passing windows that he wont get as often in the nfl. He was very pedestrian in the more pro style alabama offense.
 
i dont trust Oklahoma offense translating to the nfl. He has huge passing windows that he wont get as often in the nfl. He was very pedestrian in the more pro style alabama offense.
Good coaching does wonders and players do sometimes improve by leaps and bounds, so it's hard to say whether his improvement is a product of the system or him. Kyler Murray is playing pretty well as a rookie with a lot of responsibility on his shoulders so I don't subscribe to the "Well... it's Oklahoma's offense so that doesn't translate" theory. I definitely want to see more of him though.
 
Good coaching does wonders and players do sometimes improve by leaps and bounds, so it's hard to say whether his improvement is a product of the system or him. Kyler Murray is playing pretty well as a rookie with a lot of responsibility on his shoulders so I don't subscribe to the "Well... it's Oklahoma's offense so that doesn't translate" theory. I definitely want to see more of him though.

Well look at him under one of the best college coaches of all time in a pro style offense and then look at him in a college offense. Its clear that he does better with a simplified offense. Kyler Murray has a much bigger arm and is a more talented athlete. You also can’t deny that the passing windows are huge in the OU offense. That normally does not translate to the NFL (see Urban Meyer QBs).
 
I can see this being something the front office tries to sell the fan base on after they end up with plan b or c at qb cause they won too many games.

of course they will never tell us it was plan b or c.

barry Jackson’s already said that before the season started miamis not settling for anything but elite at qb. Kinda hard to stick to that when you are letting other teams dictate in front of you. It’s fluid but cincinattis in tbe driver seat.

theres a lot of unwarranted faith in this front office draft decision maker wise on this board right now. I know that much.

Oh yeah. Thats why I wanted the first pick mostly. Take the guess work out and not having to rely on Grier to find one. But here we are. Destined for Mediocrity instead of buckling up our boot straps and taking it for one year. We got to beat our chests over wins against 1-7 teams and a third string QB that Flores babysitted for 6 years in New England.
 
Actually, listing the bottom QBs could help your case. If 14 of 17 QBs were #1 picks (they're not), it would be further evidence either #1 picks are overvalued or #1 picks can't overcome a bad team. And it also can prove your point they are "they are average to below average' - INCLUDING any top picks, Admittedly, if there are no #1 picks in the bottom teams (there are), it would hurt your case. Nonetheless, to go on a tangent, there are 28 NFL caliber starting QBs for 32 teams, thus, the churning every year and it explains why average QBs get such large contracts. Personally, I think the quality of the team matters as much as the QB, with RARE exceptions. Evaluating the bottom QBs may prove your point.
Back to topic, no amount of arguing can negate the value of having top picks. while the top picks fail over half the time (even 'can't miss' picks), lower picks fail 3/4 of the time. No spin can change that
It makes perfect sense, best to look at every QB and their draft positions. That will tell the entire story
 
  1. Tua Tagovailoa - Definitely remains me of a mix of Steve Young/Drew Brees. Concerned about injuries but if on the board, I would stop being a Dolphins fan if Grier didn’t draft him.
  2. Joe Burrow - Remains me of a more mobile Brady.
  3. Justin Herbert - Has all of the physical tools but also concerned about injures. Read that he has had broken femurs and a clavicle.
  4. Jordan Love - Late first to early second. Could be a good QB in the right system with coaching. Definitely throws some beautiful passes.
  5. Jake Fromm - this guy isn’t an NFL QB. There is a reason why his coaches at UGA have handcuffed him this season. Definitely regressed from last year even though he is surrounded by talent.
  6. Jacob Eason - Canon arm but there is concern that he doesn’t put in the work. Had a year to learn Washington’s system and didn’t. Might not be able to grasp our system.
  7. Jalen Hurts - NO! This guy lost his job to a freshman Tua. He looked bad at Bama. Now in a super friendly system that makes bad to average QBs look good.
The bottom line I dont know which one of these qb will be good. Tua and Joe will be expected to be franchised qb from day one. How they handle it is another situation. Thier chance of failing in 4 yr is just ass good as other qb w less pressure. So pick qb u want and draft another in later rd.
 
Well look at him under one of the best college coaches of all time in a pro style offense and then look at him in a college offense. Its clear that he does better with a simplified offense. Kyler Murray has a much bigger arm and is a more talented athlete. You also can’t deny that the passing windows are huge in the OU offense. That normally does not translate to the NFL (see Urban Meyer QBs).
Another big 12 trash argument. Same argument used against me 100 time when I said and lobbied for Mark Andrews. He only open because the big 12 sucks. He is a system TE . He will fail in the NFL cause he is from the big 12...
Anyone not take Andrews on out team today...
He is one of many examples
 
This is something I have been looking at this year as far as player situation vs player talent. It was an interest created by an article I read on SI found here. The premise is that QB success in the NFL is largely due to that player situation, how the coaches bring along that QB and that QB having the time to gain confidence without the added pressure of the being the savior of the front office and coaching staff. I posted this in the VIP under another thread, but ideas fit this thread well.

One of the things I have noticed is that a majority of QBs who have long term success in the NFL are ones who are put in a good situation. Not necessarily on a team built to win day one (some have), but with coaches who ease their transition into the NFL. It seems like the plan for the QB is as important as the QB's talent.

Rothlisberger, Wilson, Brady, Rogers, Brees...these were guys who were not the most "talented" QBs in the draft (some far from it), but they were put in situations in the NFL were the early success on the team was not on their shoulders. Big Ben's first few seasons were carried by one of the top run games, an elite defense, and an excellent head coach. Russel Wilson was in the same situation. In fact, for all of those QB's they were not the guys who had to carry the team until the 4th or so season into their careers.

Even QBs who have had early success, Mahomes, Luck went into excellent situations. Luck did go into a team that had the number 1 pick, but they were a playoff team the year before. The Chiefs had more offensive weapons then the US army and still allowed Mahomes a year of sitting and learning before giving him the reigns.

This doesn't mean I don't want Tua or that I am disappointed in missing out on Tua. I am, he is the best QB in college, but if 50% of the equation is the plan for the QB and coaching, seeing what this staff is able to do with what they have is just as encouraging. To see the player development, the fact that even after the way the season started, players are still playing hard and fighting is extremely encouraging.

If the staff is right, the plan is right, then the QB doesn't need to be the "most talented" in the draft...A good fit and plan can allow that player to have just as much success.

I bag on Fromm and his smaller hand do worry me, but I have a hard time not seeing him as a very good fit for the type of offense the team seems to want to run. They value smarts and accuracy, and Fromm has both.
Good post. :up:
 
  1. Tua Tagovailoa - Definitely remains me of a mix of Steve Young/Drew Brees. Concerned about injuries but if on the board, I would stop being a Dolphins fan if Grier didn’t draft him.
  2. Joe Burrow - Remains me of a more mobile Brady.
  3. Justin Herbert - Has all of the physical tools but also concerned about injures. Read that he has had broken femurs and a clavicle.
  4. Jordan Love - Late first to early second. Could be a good QB in the right system with coaching. Definitely throws some beautiful passes.
  5. Jake Fromm - this guy isn’t an NFL QB. There is a reason why his coaches at UGA have handcuffed him this season. Definitely regressed from last year even though he is surrounded by talent.
  6. Jacob Eason - Canon arm but there is concern that he doesn’t put in the work. Had a year to learn Washington’s system and didn’t. Might not be able to grasp our system.
  7. Jalen Hurts - NO! This guy lost his job to a freshman Tua. He looked bad at Bama. Now in a super friendly system that makes bad to average QBs look good.
Hurts looked bad at Bama? This is bad?

1573767568736.png

That's bad, but you were the guy defending Josh Rosen to the death earlier this year, yeah? Inconsistent standards there I think.
 
  1. Tua Tagovailoa - Definitely remains me of a mix of Steve Young/Drew Brees. Concerned about injuries but if on the board, I would stop being a Dolphins fan if Grier didn’t draft him.
  2. Joe Burrow - Remains me of a more mobile Brady.
  3. Justin Herbert - Has all of the physical tools but also concerned about injures. Read that he has had broken femurs and a clavicle.
  4. Jordan Love - Late first to early second. Could be a good QB in the right system with coaching. Definitely throws some beautiful passes.
  5. Jake Fromm - this guy isn’t an NFL QB. There is a reason why his coaches at UGA have handcuffed him this season. Definitely regressed from last year even though he is surrounded by talent.
  6. Jacob Eason - Canon arm but there is concern that he doesn’t put in the work. Had a year to learn Washington’s system and didn’t. Might not be able to grasp our system.
  7. Jalen Hurts - NO! This guy lost his job to a freshman Tua. He looked bad at Bama. Now in a super friendly system that makes bad to average QBs look good.
"Joe burrow is a more mobile brady"...
I don't know where to go after reading that one. I'm still evaluating burrow as his sample size is insufficient.
But my point there is no way to honestly compare burrow to brady
 
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