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To Win or not to Win and how it might effect QB selection

FSU Truth said:
This is something I have been looking at this year as far as player situation vs player talent. It was an interest created by an article I read on SI found here. The premise is that QB success in the NFL is largely due to that player situation, how the coaches bring along that QB and that QB having the time to gain confidence without the added pressure of the being the savior of the front office and coaching staff. I posted this in the VIP under another thread, but ideas fit this thread well.

One of the things I have noticed is that a majority of QBs who have long term success in the NFL are ones who are put in a good situation. Not necessarily on a team built to win day one (some have), but with coaches who ease their transition into the NFL. It seems like the plan for the QB is as important as the QB's talent.

Rothlisberger, Wilson, Brady, Rogers, Brees...these were guys who were not the most "talented" QBs in the draft (some far from it), but they were put in situations in the NFL were the early success on the team was not on their shoulders. Big Ben's first few seasons were carried by one of the top run games, an elite defense, and an excellent head coach. Russel Wilson was in the same situation. In fact, for all of those QB's they were not the guys who had to carry the team until the 4th or so season into their careers.

Even QBs who have had early success, Mahomes, Luck went into excellent situations. Luck did go into a team that had the number 1 pick, but they were a playoff team the year before. The Chiefs had more offensive weapons then the US army and still allowed Mahomes a year of sitting and learning before giving him the reigns.

This doesn't mean I don't want Tua or that I am disappointed in missing out on Tua. I am, he is the best QB in college, but if 50% of the equation is the plan for the QB and coaching, seeing what this staff is able to do with what they have is just as encouraging. To see the player development, the fact that even after the way the season started, players are still playing hard and fighting is extremely encouraging.

If the staff is right, the plan is right, then the QB doesn't need to be the "most talented" in the draft...A good fit and plan can allow that player to have just as much success.

I bag on Fromm and his smaller hand do worry me, but I have a hard time not seeing him as a very good fit for the type of offense the team seems to want to run. They value smarts and accuracy, and Fromm has both.
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If you've followed PRO ball for a ling time I don't think you need studies or analysis to conclude situation/circumstances/surrounding talent and COACHING are the cornerstones to QBs success. Even the most singular dominant QB ever to play benefited from outstanding coaching and an excellent "plug-and-play" situation in Miami. In contrast, Archie Manning was subjected to ruin in New Orleans when he could have easily been one of the "exalted" all-time greats if he had landed in a superior situation.

I think dudes that literally dominate at the physical level like Lawrence Taylor, or Dick Butkus, or Reggie White are the hyper rare exceptions -- their transcendent physicality would be obvious and compelling even in the worst case scenario team wise. But still, such talent always shines brighter in a highly complimentary environment.

That said, I still believe football is the ultimate team game -- which supports (I believe) your core thesis in that creating a winning combination is NOT dependent on one "super special" ingredient. Winning consistently in the NFL is based on a positive synergy between all aspects of the org + player talent + chemistry.

Last, your take, as well others on this forum, including my own in prior posts, supports the possibility that Fromm could be a "very good fit" in what we believe the "team" values @QB. Kinda funny because at lunchtime today I watched the Auburn GA game in '18 only because I wanted to see more of Fromm. He's certainly not "spectacular" in ANY way and is physically bested by multiple prospects in '20. But... the kid has a certain quality that you could also say is unique onto his own...

I just see the kid sliding amid all the delicious talent that will be tempting teams while he's still on the board!

In fact I think he's a HOF pick top of R3!

***
 
BigNastyFish said:
If you've followed PRO ball for a ling time I don't think you need studies or analysis to conclude situation/circumstances/surrounding talent and COACHING are the cornerstones to QBs success. Even the most singular dominant QB ever to play benefited from outstanding coaching and an excellent "plug-and-play" situation in Miami. In contrast, Archie Manning was subjected to ruin in New Orleans when he could have easily been one of the "exalted" all-time greats if he had landed in a superior situation.

I think dudes that literally dominate at the physical level like Lawrence Taylor, or Dick Butkus, or Reggie White are the hyper rare exceptions -- their transcendent physicality would be obvious and compelling even in the worst case scenario team wise. But still, such talent always shines brighter in a highly complimentary environment.

That said, I still believe football is the ultimate team game -- which supports (I believe) your core thesis in that creating a winning combination is NOT dependent on one "super special" ingredient. Winning consistently in the NFL is based on a positive synergy between all aspects of the org + player talent + chemistry.

Last, your take, as well others on this forum, including my own in prior posts, supports the possibility that Fromm could be a "very good fit" in what we believe the "team" values @QB. Kinda funny because at lunchtime today I watched the Auburn GA game in '18 only because I wanted to see more of Fromm. He's certainly not "spectacular" in ANY way and is physically bested by multiple prospects in '20. But... the kid has a certain quality that you could also say is unique onto his own...

I just see the kid sliding amid all the delicious talent that will be tempting teams while he's still on the board!

In fact I think he's a HOF pick top of R3!

***
[/QUOTEanything possibly.
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Who ever is available draft joe , Tua or herbert than draft hurt in 3rd or 4rd. Cut rosen and fitz
 
FSU Truth said:
This is something I have been looking at this year as far as player situation vs player talent. It was an interest created by an article I read on SI found here. The premise is that QB success in the NFL is largely due to that player situation, how the coaches bring along that QB and that QB having the time to gain confidence without the added pressure of the being the savior of the front office and coaching staff. I posted this in the VIP under another thread, but ideas fit this thread well.

One of the things I have noticed is that a majority of QBs who have long term success in the NFL are ones who are put in a good situation. Not necessarily on a team built to win day one (some have), but with coaches who ease their transition into the NFL. It seems like the plan for the QB is as important as the QB's talent.

Rothlisberger, Wilson, Brady, Rogers, Brees...these were guys who were not the most "talented" QBs in the draft (some far from it), but they were put in situations in the NFL were the early success on the team was not on their shoulders. Big Ben's first few seasons were carried by one of the top run games, an elite defense, and an excellent head coach. Russel Wilson was in the same situation. In fact, for all of those QB's they were not the guys who had to carry the team until the 4th or so season into their careers.

Even QBs who have had early success, Mahomes, Luck went into excellent situations. Luck did go into a team that had the number 1 pick, but they were a playoff team the year before. The Chiefs had more offensive weapons then the US army and still allowed Mahomes a year of sitting and learning before giving him the reigns.

This doesn't mean I don't want Tua or that I am disappointed in missing out on Tua. I am, he is the best QB in college, but if 50% of the equation is the plan for the QB and coaching, seeing what this staff is able to do with what they have is just as encouraging. To see the player development, the fact that even after the way the season started, players are still playing hard and fighting is extremely encouraging.

If the staff is right, the plan is right, then the QB doesn't need to be the "most talented" in the draft...A good fit and plan can allow that player to have just as much success.

I bag on Fromm and his smaller hand do worry me, but I have a hard time not seeing him as a very good fit for the type of offense the team seems to want to run. They value smarts and accuracy, and Fromm has both.
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Yes brother! Absolutely right! An excellent coaching staff who can influence the scouting and GM for the types of players that fit into their schemes, that runs a tight and disciplined shop, that can develop players might be the most important thing And can get the most out of the talent of every player including the QB. The best prospects can be found in the first 2 rounds at the QB position, but at the end of the day, you are dead right. It’s all about the pieces the team can put around him, and the ability to coach him up and set him up to succeed by putting him in a scheme that emphasizes his strengths and doesn’t set him up to fail by forcing him into situations where his weaknesses will be on display.

Great post!
 
I think the 2012 QB draft class was the most memorable for me and like most years, it just shows that there are so many factors in addition to QB that determines their "success" or "failure." The fans certainly give the QB too much credit and too much blame. I think if Brady ever retires, we'll see that Billicheck was the Key to the Pats success. So we won't be drafting first because, I hope Flores' is learning quickly and he's teaching the team to how to win so we may beat Buffalo this week. We were leading them in the 4th Qtr at Buff. I think we'll win 5 games and draft in the top 10. I thought Tua was our guy, but he proved to be human against LSU and looked rusty in his first game back. That said, I'd prefer a pocket passer with a quick release because running QB's don't last in the NFL.


2012's QB Draft Class, Revisited
  • Russell Wilson (Originally: The 6th QB taken)
  • Andrew Luck (Originally: 1st)
  • Nick Foles (Originally: 7th)
  • Robert Griffin III (Originally: 2nd)
  • Ryan Tannehill (Originally: 3rd)
  • Kirk Cousins (Originally: 8th)
 
I can't do it anymore. I've ignored it a thousand times.

Affect...


Feels so much better
 
Kamelion4291 said:
As my dream of Tua is currently on life support, I've been more and more interested at trading down and taking someone like Jalen Hurts. The way he's playing and the way Lamar Jackson is playing, I feel like he could be that undervalued guy.
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Jalen doesn't have the kind of arm Lamar has, and is not nearly as fast.
 
Do agree with FSU and Kyndig's comments on coaching.
So go play the games and if we win so be it, let the cards fall where they may and draft from there.
If we do win 4/5 games then that's far more than most expected at the start of the season especially after the 1st game. It also means the coaching staff must be heading in the right direction so it will be a case of backing them in to prepare the QB chosen and give him the tools to succeed.
Any one know if Caldwell is coming back for next season?
 
SCOTTY said:
Another big 12 trash argument. Same argument used against me 100 time when I said and lobbied for Mark Andrews. He only open because the big 12 sucks. He is a system TE . He will fail in the NFL cause he is from the big 12...
Anyone not take Andrews on out team today...
He is one of many examples
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Nope, I’m not anti big 12. This is more specific to mediocre QBs who suddenly star in a college offense. Your TE example has little to do i with any concerns I have about a QB who was beaten out by a true freshman in a pro style offense. But props for that reach, it was impressive.
 
Kyndig said:
To win or not to win, that is the question. My opinion of the team this year and the season has evolved. decades of incompetence and mediocrity from the front office, various coaching staffs failing to develop players, etc. gave me despair to where I felt the best way for us to turn the corner was to tear it all down, and rebuild from the bottom up and ensure that we had a shot at the best or one of the best QB prospects in 2020.

However, good coaching and player development is critical and something that has been missing here for a long time, and this coaching staff is starting to make me a believer based on the results they are having with what they have to work with. I notice discipline, and the team playing as a team as opposed to a collection of individuals, so it got me to thinking, of all the say top 15 QBs in the league today, when were they actually drafted?

1 Lamar Jackson 32nd pick 1st round
2. Patrick Mahomes 10th Pick 1st round
3. Aaron Rodgers 24th Pick 1st round
4. Tom Brady 199th Pick 6th round
5. Drew Brees 32nd pick 2nd round
6. Russell Wilson 75th Pick 3rd Round
7. Deshaun Watson 12th Pick 1st Round
8. Matt Ryan 3rd Pick 1st Round
9. Matt Stafford 1st Pick 1st Round
10. Phillip Rivers 4th Pick 1st Round
11. Dak Prescott 135th Pick 4th Round
12. Ben Rothlisberger 11th Pick 1st round
13. Jared Goff 1st Pick 1st round
14. Kyler Murray 1st pick 1st round
15. Derek Carr 36th pick 2nd round

So, these are the top 15 QBs in the league today, the order isn't important, you could put Mahomes first, or Aaron Rodgers if you like, the point is, where were these guys drafted? So, by my count, 10 of the top 15 QBs were drafted in the first round, 6 of those were drafted in the top 10, 5 of them in the top5, with a further 3 of them drafted 1st overall (not counting Baker Mayfield who I wouldn't rate in the top 15 this year). 4 QBs were drafted in the first round but outside of the top 10. 5 were drafted outside of the first round with Brady drafted in the 6th round being a huge outlier.

My point? History tells me that as much as I really would love us to draft Tua there are good franchise QB's to be had outside of the top 2 or 3, and so I say, let's win away. As long as we get a top 10 pick, we should be in good shape to get a solid Franchise QB prospect, especially in this class. I didn't make a list of all of the busts, or the QBs who are in the bottom half of the league, but we can still put together a contending team with a solid QB with the current draft capital we have in 2020.

There is a solid group of QB's to choose from this year not to mention the 1 or 2 unknowns who jump to the top of the draft board unexpectedly.

By my count, there are least 7 solid QB prospects this year, some better than others, but plenty to take a chance on developing:

2020 QB Prospects

  1. Tua Tagovailoa
  2. Joe Burrow
  3. Justin Herbert
  4. Jordan Love
  5. Jake Fromm
  6. Jacob Eason
  7. Jalen Hurts
My point? I don't see us winning out, and I see us drafting in the top 10, and we will be just fine if we do, so go Phins! It's okay to root for this team to win, we will be just fine, let the chips fall where they may.
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Not to point out the obvious … but you've COMPLETELY cherry-picked the results. How come you didn't list ALL of the 4th round QB selections in the time period … or ALL of the 6th rounders? Wait …. I know … because you're point isn't that we're likely to find one there, just that like a lottery ticket … you want to prove someone won the lottery with a winning ticket, to prove that round doesn't matter.

Where QB's are drafted DOES MATTER.

Do a full analysis of the hits and misses by round … and maybe separate out the top 10 or 15 … notice that the hit rate of elite QB's his MUCH HIGHER with higher draft picks. Like the lottery, just buying a ticket isn't enough to win. But if you're odds are 1 in 2, it's a hell of a lot better than if the odds are 1 in 10. Yeah … Tom Brady … but how many QB's have been drafted in the 6th round since then and become elite …. zero.

It's a pipe-dream to expect a late round pick to produce as a QB, and it's guaranteeing we fail if we don't strive to identify the best QB prospect for us and secure him. No, the mid to late rounds are NOT good places to find QB's ... but to see that you need to do a full analysis. Not just highlight the lottery winners from East BumF_ck Nebraska and declare that as fertile as New York for lottery winners.
 
SCOTTY said:
"Joe burrow is a more mobile brady"...
I don't know where to go after reading that one. I'm still evaluating burrow as his sample size is insufficient.
But my point there is no way to honestly compare burrow to brady
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And the Steve Young/Drew Brees combo????

What???

How are those guys even remotely similar?
 
Digital said:
Not to point out the obvious … but you've COMPLETELY cherry-picked the results. How come you didn't list ALL of the 4th round QB selections in the time period … or ALL of the 6th rounders? Wait …. I know … because you're point isn't that we're likely to find one there, just that like a lottery ticket … you want to prove someone won the lottery with a winning ticket, to prove that round doesn't matter.

Where QB's are drafted DOES MATTER.

Do a full analysis of the hits and misses by round … and maybe separate out the top 10 or 15 … notice that the hit rate of elite QB's his MUCH HIGHER with higher draft picks. Like the lottery, just buying a ticket isn't enough to win. But if you're odds are 1 in 2, it's a hell of a lot better than if the odds are 1 in 10. Yeah … Tom Brady … but how many QB's have been drafted in the 6th round since then and become elite …. zero.

It's a pipe-dream to expect a late round pick to produce as a QB, and it's guaranteeing we fail if we don't strive to identify the best QB prospect for us and secure him. No, the mid to late rounds are NOT good places to find QB's ... but to see that you need to do a full analysis. Not just highlight the lottery winners from East BumF_ck Nebraska and declare that as fertile as New York for lottery winners.
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You missed the entire point of my post. My analysis wasn’t of the draft, my analysis was of the top qB’s in the league, the franchise QB’s, not anyone else and to see where they were drafted. The point being, that just because we are likely not going to draft 1 or 2 does that mean we aren’t going to be able to draft a franchise QB? for example, how many of the top QBs who are playing today were drafted outside the top 5 or top 10, or in the second round or whatever right? That was the point.

The study was of the current Franchise QBs in the league, the top Qb’s. I wasn’t studying the bottom half of the league because we have been there for most of 20 years and we seem to be experts in that. My point was, to analyze that just because we win enough games to put us out of the top 2 picks this season, does that mean that we can’t draft a franchise QB? So I attempted to look at the top QBs who are playing today to see where there were drafted.

that was the point of my study. It wasn’t meant to be a comprehensive study of the draft, or every QB and where they were drafted, it was meant to be a study of where the top QBs who are playing today were drafted, that is all it was And how it relates to the confusion that many of us are feeling as it pertains to winning games that might jeopardize our ability to land Tua, or Burrow, or whomever you fancy.

If you want to analyze something else and put in the work, then by all means, knock yourself out, you could start your own thread!
 
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