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| 1) Jameis Winston - Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-14) COLLEGE: Florida State Class: Soph HT: 6-3 WT: 231 POS: QB Analysis: No surprise here. I have Winston as the top-ranked player on my board, and I believe he will be the first overall pick by the Bucs on April 30. Tampa Bay has to get its quarterback of the future out of this selection, and while Winston does bring with him some off-field risks, I give him the edge as a player over Marcus Mariota. In the areas that matter most in projecting QBs to the next level -- including reading defenses, going through progressions, anticipating throws and delivering the ball accurately -- he's one of the best prospects I've evaluated in the past 10 years. 2) Marcus Mariota - Tennessee Titans (2-14) COLLEGE: Oregon Class: Jr HT: 6-3 WT: 222 POS: QB Analysis: This is a tough pick to make. If the Titans don't receive a trade offer they like at this spot, I feel like they're more likely to take a player other than Mariota (USC's Leonard Williams would be a perfect fit in Ray Horton's hybrid 3-4/4-3 defensive scheme). But I'll slot Mariota here in accordance with the Mel Kiper "no trades" mock draft rule, with the idea that I believe a team will move up to take him at No. 2. The Chargers trading Philip Rivers for the second pick makes sense if they don't think they can retain Rivers beyond this year, especially given Rivers' experience with Tennessee head coach Ken Whisenhunt. I consider the Jets another possibility, and I'm not yet ready to rule out the Eagles moving up to take him. Chip Kelly thinks really highly of Mariota, he's a perfect fit for his system and the trio of Sam Bradford, Mark Sanchez and Tim Tebow is far from a sure thing from a durability and on-field performance standpoint. I also think the Rams are a long-shot candidate to move up for Mariota. 3) Dante Fowler Jr. - Jacksonville Jaguars (3-13) COLLEGE: Florida Class: Jr HT: 6-2 WT: 261 POS: DE Analysis: I think this comes down to Fowler (the No. 7 player on my board), Leonard Williams (No. 2) or Amari Cooper (No. 3). I'm going with Fowler because I think he makes the most sense in terms of need. Williams would fit both in Gus Bradley's base 4-3 defense as a D-tackle and the many three-man fronts they run as a defensive end, and Cooper would provide a No. 1 target for an offense and a young QB in Blake Bortles that really needs one. But they need a pass-rusher more, with interior D-linemen like Tyson Alualu and Jared Odrick and receivers like Allen Robinson and Marqise Lee already on the roster, and Fowler's ability to play both on the line and as an outside linebacker makes him a perfect fit in the "Leo" edge-rusher role in Bradley's scheme. 4) Amari Cooper - Oakland Raiders (3-13) COLLEGE: Alabama Class: Jr HT: 6-0 WT: 211 POS: WR Analysis: It'd be a tough call here between Cooper and Leonard Williams. Williams would be a 3-technique defensive tackle for the Raiders in their 4-3 defense, and they need one, but they need a wide receiver more. Michael Crabtree is only on a one-year deal and isn't a long-term solution, and Cooper projects as a No. 1 receiver. He is as polished a wide receiver as you'll see coming out of college with his separation skills and route-running savvy, and he's a big-play threat as well with good speed and run-after-catch ability. Oakland needs to surround second-year QB Derek Carr with some weapons. 5) Shane Ray - Washington Redskins (4-12) COLLEGE: Missouri Class: Jr HT: 6-2 WT: 245 POS: OLB Analysis: I expect Washington will be looking to trade back and add picks, and in this scenario, the team could find potential trade partners like the Bears or Browns looking to move up to draft Leonard Williams. I think that a trade back is the Redskins' best option, because they could likely fill their biggest need -- edge rusher -- several picks later, including with Ray. But absent a trade, I think the Redskins will be looking to take an edge rusher here. Randy Gregory is the perfect fit from a football standpoint, but I don't think they can afford to take a character risk with this pick. That leaves Ray as the next-best available player at the position, and while there's some concern about his ability to rush from a two-point stance and drop into coverage, he has elite first-step quickness and was very productive at getting to the quarterback at Missouri. 6) Todd Gurley - New York Jets (4-12) COLLEGE: Georgia Class: Jr HT: 6-0 WT: 222 POS: RB Analysis: Now that Gurley is cleared from a medical standpoint, I think he's going to go high. Maybe not this high, but I do think this pick would make sense. The Jets' biggest need is at quarterback, but they won't be able to find one in this scenario, and having an elite back like Gurley would provide help for an offense that won't be getting above-average quarterback play -- and new general manager Mike Maccagnan saw firsthand with Arian Foster in Houston the impact an elite running back can have. Other options for the Jets here include WR Kevin White, OL Brandon Scherff and edge rushers Randy Gregory and Vic Beasley. There was a time when I thought Gurley would last until the 20s, but I don't think that's the case anymore. 7) Leonard Williams - Chicago Bears (5-11) COLLEGE: USC Class: Jr HT: 6-4 WT: 302 POS: DE Analysis: To be clear: Williams dropping to No. 7 here has nothing to do with my opinion of him as a player. He's the No. 2 prospect on my board and I've had him ranked as one of the top players in this class since the preseason. But this scenario does show how he has the potential to drop a little bit if he gets out of the top two picks based on the needs of teams picking third through seventh. He wouldn't fill a huge need for the Bears, but at this point he's too good of a value for them to pass up, especially given how bad their defense has been the last two seasons. The Chicago Bears ranking 31st in the league in scoring defense? That's just not right. Williams is an impact run-stopper and above-average interior pass-rusher who can play multiple roles in different schemes. If Williams isn't available here, then WR Kevin White would be the pick. 8) Randy Gregory - Atlanta Falcons (6-10) COLLEGE: Nebraska Class: Jr HT: 6-4 WT: 235 POS: OLB Analysis: The Falcons really need to improve their pass rush, and while Gregory presents some off-field concerns, including a positive marijuana test at the combine, I think Atlanta could be willing to take the risk with him. He has the length that new Falcons coach Dan Quinn wants in an edge rusher, to go with excellent quickness and explosiveness. Vic Beasley is another possibility here. I'm not as high on Beasley as some other evaluators -- and the Falcons might be one of the others. 9) Brandon Scherff - New York Giants (6-10) COLLEGE: Iowa Class: Sr HT: 6-4 WT: 319 POS: OT Analysis: Giants fans are probably getting sick of this pick, as I've had Scherff going No. 9 to the Giants in four consecutive mock drafts now. But he's a great fit because of his toughness, versatility and strength as a run-blocker. I also considered cornerback Trae Waynes here, and while Kevin White wouldn't fill a need, he'd be a good value here and would give the Giants a very talented tandem at receiver with Odell Beckham Jr. for the foreseeable future. Lastly, if Gurley gets to this spot, he's an intriguing option for the Giants. 10) Kevin White - St. Louis Rams (6-10) COLLEGE: West Virginia Class: Sr HT: 6-2 WT: 215 POS: WR Analysis: The Rams really need a No. 1 receiver, and this scenario breaks well for them with White falling all the way to No. 10. He has a great combination of size (6-foot-3, 215 pounds) and speed (4.35-second 40-yard dash at the combine), and is a one-on-one matchup problem in the red zone and on vertical routes. They also could consider an offensive lineman here, with Brandon Scherff, La'el Collins and Ereck Flowers all possibilities, depending on who is left on the board when they pick. 11) Trae Waynes - Minnesota Vikings (7-9) COLLEGE: Michigan State Class: Jr HT: 6-0 WT: 186 POS: CB Analysis: DeVante Parker is an option here, as the Vikings could still afford to upgrade their wide receiver depth chart even after the Mike Wallace trade, and he was QB Teddy Bridgewater's go-to target at Louisville. But the cornerback position opposite Xavier Rhodes is a bigger need. Coach Mike Zimmer ideally wants two corners who can hold up in press-man coverage, and Waynes is the best CB prospect in this draft and best-suited for press-man, with very good straight-line speed and technique. In Rhodes and Waynes, Minnesota would have a very good pair of corners. 12) DeVante Parker - Cleveland Browns (7-9) COLLEGE: Louisville Class: Sr HT: 6-2 WT: 209 POS: WR Analysis: The Browns really need a receiver after not taking one in last year's draft and with Josh Gordon's NFL future in doubt. Parker is a good value at this spot; he's a big target who can threaten defenses vertically with his speed and come down with contested catches. The Browns' biggest need is at quarterback, but they won't be able to draft one in the first round in this scenario. They've been mentioned as a team that could move up to draft Marcus Mariota, but I don't think they're as likely to do so as some of the other teams I've mentioned so far. 13) Vic Beasley - New Orleans Saints (7-9) COLLEGE: Clemson Class: Sr HT: 6-3 WT: 246 POS: OLB Analysis: I have Beasley ranked as the No. 41 prospect on my board, but I know many evaluators are higher on him than I am. He was incredibly productive at Clemson and blew the doors off the combine with an exceptional workout, but the lack of physicality and power to his game is concerning to me. Still, the Saints' biggest need is at pass-rusher, and Beasley has the potential to be a good one. 14) Breshad Perriman - Miami Dolphins (8-8) COLLEGE: UCF Class: Jr HT: 6-2 WT: 212 POS: WR Analysis: The Dolphins have needs at linebacker and guard but can address both of those on Day 2 and Day 3. They also need a big-play outside receiver to pair with Kenny Stills and Jarvis Landry, and Perriman fits the bill. His 14 percent drop rate is a concern, particularly because when I studied his tape he didn't appear to be the most natural pass-catcher. But he also showed the ability to come down with really difficult catches, and he's a big-play threat with his combination of size (6-foot-2, 212 pounds) and speed (sub-4.3 40 time at his pro day). 15) Arik Armstead - San Francisco 49ers(8-8) COLLEGE: Oregon Class: Jr HT: 6-7 WT: 292 POS: DE Analysis: This pick is a good marriage of need and value. The 49ers could use an infusion of youth and talent at defensive end regardless of whether or not Justin Smith chooses to retire, and Armstead is the No. 10 player on our board and a perfect fit as a 5-technique defensive end in a 3-4 scheme. He has very good length, power and agility, and he's a good run defender who provides upside as an interior pass-rusher. Cornerback, wide receiver and inside linebacker are also need positions for the Niners. 16) Nelson Agholor - Houston Texans (9-7) COLLEGE: USC Class: Jr HT: 6-0 WT: 198 POS: WR Analysis: Danny Shelton would be intriguing as a nose tackle in Romeo Crennel's defense, but the Texans drafted Louis Nix III last year and just signed Vince Wilfork, so it's not a huge position of need. They need to add a weapon opposite DeAndre Hopkins following Andre Johnson's departure (they also signed Cecil Shorts this offseason), and Agholor is a versatile receiver who does a good job of creating separation as a route runner. This is a bit rich for my liking, but I'm hearing a lot of buzz about Agholor. I also think the Texans could be a team that moves back into the first round and winds up getting a better value package with an additional pick and a second-tier WR later in the first round. 17) Danny Shelton - San Diego Chargers (9-7) COLLEGE: Washington Class: Sr HT: 6-2 WT: 339 POS: DT Analysis: Running back, left guard and outside linebacker all are need positions for the Chargers, but they could also use an upgrade at nose tackle, and Shelton is the best NT prospect in this draft. He commands double teams with his massive frame (6-foot-2, 339 pounds) and is quicker than you'd expect for his size. He's dominant against the run and shows the ability to collapse the pocket as a pass-rusher. 18) Cameron Erving - Kansas City Chiefs (9-7) COLLEGE: Florida State Class: Sr HT: 6-5 WT: 313 POS: OC Analysis: Even after signing Jeremy Maclin to a big free-agent contract this offseason, the Chiefs still could afford to improve at wide receiver, which is why a player like Jaelen Strong could be a possibility here. But they also have a need at center, and not only is Erving the best center prospect in this draft, but he also brings really good versatility from his time playing left tackle for the Seminoles. He is a good run-blocker and excellent in pass protection. 19) Malcom Brown - Cleveland Browns (7-9) COLLEGE: Texas Class: Jr HT: 6-2 WT: 319 POS: DT Analysis: The Browns lost both Jabaal Sheard and Ahtyba Rubin in free agency, and Phil Taylor is recovering from knee surgery and entering the final year of his contract, so adding a versatile player like Brown to their defensive front would be a wise move. He is just average as a pass-rusher but is excellent versus the run, and he showed the ability to play multiple roles in multiple defensive schemes while at Texas. He'll help shore up the Browns' run defense, after they landed a big-play wide receiver in DeVante Parker with the No. 12 pick. 20) Landon Collins - Philadelphia Eagles (10-6) COLLEGE: Alabama Class: Jr HT: 6-0 WT: 228 POS: S Analysis: The Eagles could go with a wide receiver here, possibly one with size like Jaelen Strong. But Collins is a good value at this point in the draft and fills a need at strong safety by replacing Nate Allen opposite free safety Malcolm Jenkins. Collins is built like a weakside outside linebacker and is very good against the run, while athletic enough to hold up in coverage for the most part. As I mentioned in the Titans' section, I'm not ready to rule out the possibility of the Eagles making a move up the board to draft Mariota. The cost might prove too much, but the fit between player, coach and scheme would be perfect. 21) Andrus Peat - Cincinnati Bengals (10-5-1) COLLEGE: Stanford Class: Jr HT: 6-6 WT: 313 POS: OT Analysis: The Bengals are in need of a tackle, with starters Andrew Whitworth (LT) and Andre Smith (RT) both set to be free agents in 2016, and Peat ranks as the top left tackle on our board. He possesses very good length and quickness, although we would like to see more of a nasty side. Cincinnati also needs to improve its pass rush, so Bud Dupree is an option here. |
22) Bud Dupree - Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)
COLLEGE: Kentucky
Class: Sr HT: 6-4 WT: 269 POS: OLB
Analysis: Cornerback is a big need for the Steelers, so Kevin Johnson and Marcus Peters are possibilities here. But they are also coming off a season in which they had the fewest number of sacks (33) since 1989, and they don't have an impact pass-rusher. Dupree is raw, and needs to show more consistency at the point of attack. But he is an excellent athlete who has tremendous range versus the run, upside as a pass-rusher and the ability to drop in coverage when asked.
23) La'el Collins - Detroit Lions (11-5)
COLLEGE: LSU
Class: Sr HT: 6-4 WT: 305 POS: OT
Analysis: Collins doesn't have the prototypical length or athleticism for an NFL left tackle, but that's OK, because the Lions need help on the interior of the line and possibly at right tackle. Collins could handle either role, utilizing his massive frame and above-average quickness to be an efficient blocker in both the running and passing games. Defensive tackle is another need position following the free-agent departures of Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley, but there isn't a great prospect match in this scenario.
24) Kevin Johnson - Arizona Cardinals (11-5)
COLLEGE: Wake Forest
Class: Sr HT: 6-0 WT: 188 POS: CB
Analysis: The Cardinals don't have too many glaring needs, but with Antonio Cromartie departing for the Jets in free agency, they are looking for a starting cornerback opposite Patrick Peterson. Johnson can fill that role. He needs to add strength to be more effective in run support, but he has the natural movement skills to excel in the man coverage schemes the Cardinals typically employ, to go with above-average recognition instincts and ball skills. Linebacker is a need position Arizona can address on Day 2.
25) Ereck Flowers - Carolina Panthers (7-8-1)
COLLEGE: Miami (FL)
Class: Jr HT: 6-6 WT: 329 POS: OT
Analysis:The Panthers' biggest need is at offensive tackle. I think Flowers projects best at right tackle, which isn't a terrible fit for Carolina because free-agent signing Michael Oher hopefully can handle the left tackle spot in 2015. Flowers isn't an elite athlete, which is why he fits better on the right side, but he has a massive frame with good quickness for his size and excellent upper-body power. Wide receiver and cornerback are two other positions the Panthers could address here.
26) Melvin Gordon - Baltimore Ravens (10-6)
COLLEGE: Wisconsin
Class: Jr HT: 6-0 WT: 215 POS: RB
Analysis: The Ravens could look at a wide receiver or a cornerback here, but they also need depth at running back alongside Justin Forsett, who is coming off a career year but will turn 30 years old this season, and Gordon qualifies as a good value at this point. He's a great fit for Baltimore's zone-blocking scheme, as he excels at being patient in waiting for holes to develop, then accelerating quickly through the holes and reading the second level of defenses to exploit cutback lanes. He needs to improve as a pass-catcher and in pass protection to become a complete three-down back in the NFL.
27) Byron Jones - Dallas Cowboys (12-4)
COLLEGE: Connecticut
Class: Sr HT: 6-0 WT: 199 POS: CB
Analysis: Gordon is an option for the Cowboys if he drops this far, but they can also look to add a running back later in the draft. Cornerback is their second-biggest need, and Marcus Peters is a possibility here, but I'll have them take Jones. His recognition skills in coverage can improve, but he's an exceptional athlete with good size and great intangibles who could really help upgrade the corner position for Dallas.
28) D.J. Humphries - Denver Broncos (12-4)
COLLEGE: Florida
Class: Jr HT: 6-5 WT: 307 POS: OT
Analysis: Humphries is a good fit for the Broncos not just because Denver could afford to add some depth and talent to their offensive line, but because his strengths would be maximized and his weaknesses largely hidden in Gary Kubiak's zone-blocking-heavy offensive scheme. He lacks ideal power and length for the tackle position, but he might have the best movement skills off all the O-line prospects in this class. Denver also could consider taking a pass-rusher here.
29) Eli Harold - Indianapolis Colts (11-5)
COLLEGE: Virginia
Class: Jr HT: 6-3 WT: 247 POS: OLB
Analysis: The Colts have needs at offensive tackle, safety and defensive tackle, but in this scenario Harold represents a good value who would also provide needed depth at the edge rusher spot. Harold isn't a finished product -- his instincts and recognition skills are just average and he's an inconsistent tackler -- but he has good upside as a pass-rusher with his length and quickness, and he flashed the ability to convert speed to power for the Cavs.
30) Eric Kendricks - Green Bay Packers (12-4)
COLLEGE: UCLA
Class: Sr HT: 6-0 WT: 232 POS: ILB
Analysis: The Packers could look at a cornerback here, after losing Tramon Williams and Davon House in free agency, or at a defensive lineman, but their biggest need is at inside linebacker, and Kendricks is the highest-ranked ILB on our board. He is the best cover linebacker in this draft, and while he doesn't have ideal size or strength for the position, he holds up well against the run in large part due to his playmaking instincts.
31) Phillip Dorsett - New Orleans Saints (7-9)
COLLEGE: Miami (FL)
Class: Sr HT: 5-9 WT: 185 POS: WR
Analysis: The Saints got a pass-rusher in Vic Beasley with the No. 13 pick, so we'll have them address another need by drafting a wide receiver here. They need to get Drew Brees some more weapons after trading away both Jimmy Graham and Kenny Stills, and Dorsett is one of the best playmakers in this draft class. He has elite speed, but unlike some burners, he possesses the ability to smoothly get in and out of cuts to create separation, and his ability to accelerate off of cuts is a rare quality shared by most of the NFL's best open-field runners. He's also a natural pass-catcher, and is not only a vertical threat but could be an effective slot receiver in the pros as well.
32) Marcus Peters - New England Patriots (12-4)
COLLEGE: Washington
Class: Jr HT: 5-11 WT: 197 POS: CB
Analysis:Cornerback is the Patriots' top need after the losses of 2014 starters Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner. Based on game tape alone, Peters might have been the top cornerback prospect in this class, but his behavioral issues at UW -- including his eventual dismissal from the program -- have hurt his stock. He has all the tools to be a good NFL cornerback, including size, strength, athleticism and playmaking instincts. Linebacker and defensive tackle are other needs the Pats could look to address early in the 2015 draft.
