Top 10 QB or RB Selection--Both Risky

Celtkin

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There seems to be two large camps here at FinHeaven. One camp advocates taking a QB with our first pick and the other makes a good argument for selecting a RB. Each camp points to the risk of choosing the other camps favorite with such a high pick. Is the potential payoff worthy of the risk?

The truth of the matter is that any selection in the top 10 is risky, but historically not as risky as lower round picks. Superstars and monumental busts in both positions have been pointed to in the upper tier of the draft in order to make a point.

What many fans don't consider is what goes into making a superstar and what factors lead to a bust. It's not only a player's ability that leads to his success or failure. Potential superstar RB's can be effectively busted by poor run blocking or a coaching system that favors the pass over the run. Similarly, QB stats can be negatively affected by poor pass protection, coaching decisions or ineffective WRs.

Having said that, I'd like to share an article that looks at the success and failures of both positions since the AFL and NFL merger.

http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php
 

finz99

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Celtkin said:
There seems to be two large camps here at FinHeaven. One camp advocates taking a QB with our first pick and the other makes a good argument for selecting a RB. Each camp points to the risk of choosing the other camps favorite with such a high pick. Is the potential payoff worthy of the risk?

The truth of the matter is that any selection in the top 10 is risky, but historically not as risky as lower round picks. Superstars and monumental busts in both positions have been pointed to in the upper tier of the draft in order to make a point.

What many fans don't consider is what goes into making a superstar and what factors lead to a bust. It's not only a player's ability that leads to his success or failure. Potential superstar RB's can be effectively busted by poor run blocking or a coaching system that favors the pass over the run. Similarly, QB stats can be negatively affected by poor pass protection, coaching decisions or ineffective WRs.

Having said that, I'd like to share an article that looks at the success and failures of both positions since the AFL and NFL merger.

http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php
Nice post. Both Q's and RB's are risky in the top ten no matter what, because no one knows how well they will fit into a system.
 

Dolphin39

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Case in point.......Steve Young once played for Tampa Bay, but never became a superstar until he got his break with the San Francisco 49ers and their system, which took advantage of Steve's skills.

I wish he had played his entire career with Tampa. It would have been nice to see him go into the Hall of Fame with one of the Florida teams, instead of San Francisco.:(

No matter when a player is drafted, a player has to be in the right place, at the right time, with the right coach and team mates, in order to reach their full potential.
 

Celtkin

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Dolphin39 said:
Case in point.......Steve Young once played for Tampa Bay, but never became a superstar until he got his break with the San Francisco 49ers and their system, which took advantage of Steve's skills.

I wish he had played his entire career with Tampa. It would have been nice to see him go into the Hall of Fame with one of the Florida teams, instead of San Francisco.:(

No matter when a player is drafted, a player has to be in the right place, at the right time, with the right coach and team mates, in order to reach their full potential.
Good example. More recently we can look to Brian Griese who was a bust with the Dolphins and a hit with TB.
 

BlueFin

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Dolphin39 said:
Case in point.......Steve Young once played for Tampa Bay, but never became a superstar until he got his break with the San Francisco 49ers and their system, which took advantage of Steve's skills.

I wish he had played his entire career with Tampa. It would have been nice to see him go into the Hall of Fame with one of the Florida teams, instead of San Francisco.:(

No matter when a player is drafted, a player has to be in the right place, at the right time, with the right coach and team mates, in order to reach their full potential.
Tampa had a crappy owner, crappy coach and a crappy team when Steve Young was there, a lot of times it has to do with the quality of the team a players goes too.
 

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Celtkin said:
Good example. More recently we can look to Brian Griese who was a bust with the Dolphins and a hit with TB.

its very difficult to take a WCO QB (Griese, Feeley) and play them in a system that's nothing like their previous ones. That's why it was a huge mistake by Spielman to get A.J. He is ill-suited for the wide-open downfield attack that doesn't rely on timing, and thats why I fully expect for Gus to start this year. If you put AJ in Gruden's O, I bet he'd do just as well as Griese or Brad Johnson did
 

Celtkin

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Dudeman said:
its very difficult to take a WCO QB (Griese, Feeley) and play them in a system that's nothing like their previous ones. That's why it was a huge mistake by Spielman to get A.J. He is ill-suited for the wide-open downfield attack that doesn't rely on timing, and thats why I fully expect for Gus to start this year. If you put AJ in Gruden's O, I bet he'd do just as well as Griese or Brad Johnson did
You're absolutely right and that's the point I am making. You can have a very capable QB or RB in a bad or ill-fitting system and they will appear to be a bust.
 

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Celtkin said:
You're absolutely right and that's the point I am making. You can have a very capable QB or RB in a bad or ill-fitting system and they will appear to be a bust.
yeah, sorry, I didn't read your post correctly
 

Celtkin

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Dudeman said:
yeah, sorry, I didn't read your post correctly
No problem. I'm glad you mis-read the post because you brought up an excellent example. Besides, I mis-read posts all the time. :)
 

Celtkin

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Here's a list of RB and QB taken in the first 10 selections over the past 10 years. I have noted the players who are widely accepted as busts and those players who, in my opinion, are superstars or potential superstars. There are no special font used for players who were neither superstar of bust or players who have not played long enough to prove one way or the other.

Running Backs (10 Players Taken)
Year Player Pick
1995 Ki-Jana Carter 1
1996 Lawrence Phillips 6
1996 Tim Biakabutuka 8
1998 Curtis Enis 5
1998 Fred Taylor 9
1999 Edgerrin James 4
1999 Ricky Williams 5
2000 Jamal Lewis 5
2000 Thomas Jones 7
2001 LaDainian Tomlinson 5


Quarterbacks (12 Players Taken)
Year Player Pick Bust? Superstar?
1995 Kerry Collins 5
1995 Steve McNair 3
1998 Ryan Leaf 2
1998 Peyton Manning 1
1999 Donovan McNabb 2
2001 Michael Vick 1
2002 Joey Harrington 3
2002 David Carr 1
2003 Carson Palmer 1
2003 Byron Leftwich 7
2004 Phillip Rivers 4
2004 Eli Manning 1

I may have left someone out but I think the list is mostly complete.

So, how great is the risk really? There seems to be a greater number of superstar RBs (30% and could be 20% if Ricky stays retired or is not productive when he returns) versus QBs (20%). In the QB category, I think that time will prove the value of the Palmer, Carr, Rivers, Manning and possibly Leftwich selections. That would raise the success percentage, even if only 2 of those 5 QBs become superstars, to 42%
 

ih8brady

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McNair is a superstar. Hes had a few MVP like seasons. And Leftwich and Carr have shown more potential than Vick at the QB position. Jamal Lewis IS a great back.
 

DonShula84

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Dolphin39 said:
Case in point.......Steve Young once played for Tampa Bay, but never became a superstar until he got his break with the San Francisco 49ers and their system, which took advantage of Steve's skills.

I wish he had played his entire career with Tampa. It would have been nice to see him go into the Hall of Fame with one of the Florida teams, instead of San Francisco.:(

No matter when a player is drafted, a player has to be in the right place, at the right time, with the right coach and team mates, in order to reach their full potential.
Like you said he did nothing in Tampa, he never would have made the hall of fame if he had stayed there.
 

Emskirch

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Celtkin said:
Here's a list of RB and QB taken in the first 10 selections over the past 10 years. I have noted the players who are widely accepted as busts and those players who, in my opinion, are superstars or potential superstars. There are no special font used for players who were neither superstar of bust or players who have not played long enough to prove one way or the other.

Running Backs (10 Players Taken)
Year Player Pick
1995 Ki-Jana Carter 1
1996 Lawrence Phillips 6
1996 Tim Biakabutuka 8
1998 Curtis Enis 5
1998 Fred Taylor 9
1999 Edgerrin James 4
1999 Ricky Williams 5
2000 Jamal Lewis 5
2000 Thomas Jones 7
2001 LaDainian Tomlinson 5


Quarterbacks (12 Players Taken)
Year Player Pick Bust? Superstar?
1995 Kerry Collins 5
1995 Steve McNair 3
1998 Ryan Leaf 2
1998 Peyton Manning 1
1999 Donovan McNabb 2
2001 Michael Vick 1
2002 Joey Harrington 3
2002 David Carr 1
2003 Carson Palmer 1
2003 Byron Leftwich 7
2004 Phillip Rivers 4
2004 Eli Manning 1

I may have left someone out but I think the list is mostly complete.

So, how great is the risk really? There seems to be a greater number of superstar RBs (30% and could be 20% if Ricky stays retired or is not productive when he returns) versus QBs (20%). In the QB category, I think that time will prove the value of the Palmer, Carr, Rivers, Manning and possibly Leftwich selections. That would raise the success percentage, even if only 2 of those 5 QBs become superstars, to 42%
Wow, I must disagree with you, Fred Taylor and Lewis not a superstar/superstar in the making?

Anywho, your point is well taken, although I would bump up your numbers on the RB side just a bit, getting a quality stud qb is hard, RB's not so much.
 

ih8brady

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Enis is a bust also.

I'd make a joke but I am too classy.
 
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