Top 3 Backs Falling Past 11th Pick

[KingPhin05]

Its hard to tell what Tampa will do. It really depends on whos left, i know for a fact Gruden would like one of the QBs this year but he may go for a late round QB. Draft day where are you!:yell:

 

[finfan54]

Nobody knows bout which way it blows.............

 

[Dolfan2788]

It's going to be very exciting to see who we pick on draft day, the suspense will be unbeleivable the day before our pick. I'm trying to get ESPN in Australia to air it by getting everyone on my team to send them emails, hopefully they listen and put it on this year.

 

[Krush]

No way jose!, the dolphins will stay in the top 10 just to get a quality guy, they need to get a running back that will fit the style of linehans offense, the only back i see that they will be comfortable with is Caddy and the receiver could be Mike williams, he some one who can catch the ball over the middle and free up chris chambers.

 

[Surferosa]

Who is Cadillac Anderson????

Doh!

 

[phunwin]

Good post, Surf! I've got some points to interject here, though...

I. Will NOT draft a RB

A. San Fransisco (#1). With the first pick, they simply cannot afford to take a RB. Enough said.

B. Cleveland (#3). The Browns just traded for Rueben Droughns to compete with Lee Suggs, so I would be shocked if they picked a RB at #3. Dont be fooled - they will not enter the season with Dilfer and Luke Mccown as their starting QB's.

C. Chicago (#4). The Bears got great production out of Thomas Jones before Rex Grossman was injured last year. I am expecting them to take a WR to help Grossman's maturation process (especially since Mushin Muhhammed is over 30). Ive seen Benson go here, but I dont think its realisitc as long as a big play WR is a available. The Bears havent had a dominant vertical passing game in years, and they need to start giving Grossman some legitimate weapons.

I don't think the Bears will go RB, but I don't think you can completely rule it out. I'd put them in the wildcard category.

D. Tennessee (#6). The Titans defense was awful last year, and now they lost both Samari Rolle and Andre Dyson. They cannot afford to select a RB with all the holes on defense from the salary cap purge. In contrast, their offense played very well last year. And Chris Brown, when healthy, is a very good back.

E. Redskins (#9). They have Portis and wont draft a RB.

F. Lions (#10). They have Kevin Jones and wont draft a RB.

G. Cowboys (#11) They have Julius Jones and wont draft a RB.


II. May Take a RB - The Wildcards

H. Minnesota (#7). They Vikes may take a RB if either Benson/Brown/Caddy is head and shoulders the BPA on their draft board. They already loaded up on defense in FA. If the top two WR's are off the board, and they decide against trading up, they could surprise and take a RB.

I. Arizona (#8). If the Cards sign Henry, they will be out of the RB derby. If not, these guys are prime candidates to take a RB.

Arizona has 2 1/2 weeks to complete a Henry deal. If they don't, I'd bet my left nut they take an RB. Even though they badly need defense, the next time Denny Green passes on a prime offensive player will be the first time.
The upside to that would be that Henry's market would be all but nonexistant and we might be able to work a draft day trade for him.

III. WILL take a RB

J. Tampa Bay This is the only team in the top 12 that clearly needs a RB. With no signs of trading for Edge, SA, Bennett, etc, they seem like a lock to take one of Caddy/Brown/Benson. Plus, they just drafted Clayton last season, I dont see them picking another WR in round one.

So, further to you intial question, this is how I see the draft unfolding in the event we moved down to either #11 (Dallas) or #12 (San Diego):

1) SF - Aaron Rodgers (or Smith)
2) San Diego (from Miami)- Braylon Edwards
3) Cleveland - Alex Smith (or Rodgers)
4) Chicago - Mike Williams
5) Tampa Bay - Ronnie Brown
6) Tennesse - Antrel Rolle
7) Minnesota - Cedric Benson. I can see them taking a RB if the draft pans out like this.
8) Arizona - Pac Man Jones (to replace Duane Starks)
9) Washington - Merriman/Spears/Derrick Johnson
10) Detroit - Merriman/Spears/Derrick Johnson
11) Dallas - Merriman/Spears/Derrick Johnson/Alex Barron
12) Miami (from SD) - Cadillac Williams

The problem with this asessment, of course, is that any of the teams drafting above us can trade the pick to a team that needs a RB. Still, its a short snapshot of how things might happen if we find a trade partner.

However, the way you have it shaking out makes sense. I think Arizona is much more likely to take an RB than Minnesota, but that doesn't really matter, because the larger point remains: there's a very good chance that one of the three RBs would be there at 11 or 12.

 

[phunwin]

Who is Cadillac Anderson????

Forward who bounced around the NBA for awhile. Played for half a dozen teams. Not much connection to the NFL, though. :)

 

[Surferosa]

However, the way you have it shaking out makes sense. I think Arizona is much more likely to take an RB than Minnesota, but that doesn't really matter, because the larger point remains: there's a very good chance that one of the three RBs would be there at 11 or 12.

Right on. You summarized my (very long) post quite accurately - I think either Minn or Arizona will pull the trigger on a RB, but not necesarrilly both. That means there is a very good possibility that one of the top three RB's falls out of the top 10.

 

[BlueFin]

Surf... you make some great points.

But I think Tampa wants Mike Williams.

I think you may be right, they really only have Clayton at receiver now so they badly need a complement and Gruden loves to throw the ball.

 

[KyPhinfan13]

I have read some recent posts about how Miami could trade with teams like Dallas who holds the 11th pick in the draft. It seems like most would consider dropping to 11 "safe" thinking that one of the RBs will be left and maybe even both Cadillac and Benson. Well, personally I do not think any of the top three RBs will be left by pick 11. It is hard to say of course because the Draft is so unpredictable... even supposed Draft guru Kiper has changed his board several times. In the latest, he now has Mike Williams going 1st instead of a QB or the other WR Edwards.
But anyway, to the point as to why I don't see Benson, Brown, or Caddy lasting until pick 11 if Miami did/does trade down. Cleveland, Chicago, Tampa Bay, Arizona, and Detroit are all teams in my mind that could take a RB in the draft:

I don't believe Cleveland is sold on Lee Suggs, although it does appear the Browns would draft a QB. Maybe Cleveland does not want to spend such a high draft pick on a QB again like they did Couch? Maybe they trade down to a team who could use a RB? Let's not consider QB a lock though...
Most of you would say Chicago would be the first team to draft a RB if Miami moved out of #2. That leaves 2 of the 3 premiere backs on the board, assuming Cleveland will not trade to a team/draft RB.
Tampa Bay is the one that really gets me, it seems to be taken that they will draft WR. Gruden seems to really like both Williams and Edwards but what if they are not there? It is quite possible with both Williams and Edwards projected to be gone by pick 3 according to Kiper of course.
Well, maybe you see both Benson and Cadillac still being left at pick 8 which is the Cards. RB is something Arizona certainly does need, but this depends on whether you see the Travis Henry trade working out or not. If it does not though, you can bet that 1 of the top 3 backs are now left.
The only team in our obstacle possibly is Detroit. If Washington, Minnesota, and Tennessee stay at their spots, it could be Detroit who trades down with both the CBs: Rolle and Jones off the board (Washington to replace Champ and the Titans to replace Rolle's brother Samari). The Vikings could take the LB Johnson which leaves Detriot's need players gone. So maybe Detroit trades down and someone else steals the last RB, or Detroit drafts the RB themselves out of best player available?
While I do think it would be some pretty poor luck for 1 of the 3 backs not to be left, I do think at least 2 of the 3 will be gone in Benson and Brown by pick 11. Having a choice between 2-3 RBs seems to be better than just 1, I don't know. If Miami could get away with gaining extra picks and still able to draft their guy it would be a heck of a trade and steal. The question is if you are a risk taker or not, and whether you consider Saban as wanting any of the 3?

I stopped reading when you said that Detroit might take a runningback this year. Ever heard of Kevin Jones?

 

[arsenal]

kiper said benson is the best blocking back in the draft????

 

[Surferosa]

I think you may be right, they really only have Clayton at receiver now so they badly need a complement and Gruden loves to throw the ball.

Dont they have Joey Galloway as well? I guess hes quite old. Still, it would be surprising to spend two reasonably high draft picks on WR's when your team is hurting in many other areas.

 

[finsnchips]

Dont they have Joey Galloway as well? I guess hes quite old. Still, it would be surprising to spend two reasonably high draft picks on WR's when your team is hurting in many other areas.

look at the lions though with rogers and williams... they ae set for the next 10 years if they stay healthy.

Similarly the buccs will be laughing with mike williams and michael clayton... that is a nice lineup.

If Clayton had fallen to #20 last year... he would have been a fin. I believe he was on top of our draft board.

 

[PhinstiGator]

...So, further to you intial question, this is how I see the draft unfolding in the event we moved down to either #11 (Dallas) or #12 (San Diego):

1) SF - Aaron Rodgers (or Smith)
2) San Diego (from Miami)- Braylon Edwards
3) Cleveland - Alex Smith (or Rodgers)
4) Chicago - Mike Williams
5) Tampa Bay - Ronnie Brown
6) Tennesse - Antrel Rolle
7) Minnesota - Cedric Benson. I can see them taking a RB if the draft pans out like this.
8) Arizona - Pac Man Jones (to replace Duane Starks)
9) Washington - Merriman/Spears/Derrick Johnson
10) Detroit - Merriman/Spears/Derrick Johnson
11) Dallas - Merriman/Spears/Derrick Johnson/Alex Barron
12) Miami (from SD) - Cadillac Williams

Interesting. I'm not entirely convinced that Cleveland will go QB. I'm not sure who has the final say there (Savage or Crennel), But Crennel will want to build the team around his defense and the thought of getting the best Defensive player on the board will be very tempting.

Your scenario could happen. The Phins could also promptly trade down a second time in order to hedge the risk of a second round flier.

 

[NorthFinFan85]

I stopped reading when you said that Detroit might take a runningback this year. Ever heard of Kevin Jones?

I am not so much thinking that Detroit will draft a RB, as a team will trade into Detroit's spot if one of the defensive players Detroit wants are not there. If they can't trade out, then maybe they do out of best player available. I see your point that it could be a stretch. Most people seem to agree that you don't just draft on need as you do the best player, but why when we talk about what a team will draft do we talk about their needs?