Tua most accurate QB in the NFL | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Tua most accurate QB in the NFL

dan the fin said:
Completion percent over expected.
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Oh ok. Thanks. So I'm just trying to figure this out. What people or whoever measures this has an expectation, or an expected completion percentage, to what it actually was is how this is measured? Sorry, just trying to figure out how they came up with this.
 
eMCee85 said:
Oh ok. Thanks. So I'm just trying to figure this out. What people or whoever measures this has an expectation, or an expected completion percentage, to what it actually was is how this is measured? Sorry, just trying to figure out how they came up with this.
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It is kinda subjective as there will be human error. So for a QB they look at all his throws and determine if an average NFL QB should or shouldn't have completed each throw. If they say well he should have completed 60% but his actual completed 67% then he is 7% CPOE. It can go the other way as well. If they think it should be 70% but the QB completed 63% he is -7% CPOE. Not really surprising for Tua. He had a high completion % at 68, and also was second or third in tight window throws at like 24%.

With these type of stats. I like to watch a game, then look at these stats, then go re-watch and identify what's the issue. Like with Tua. Great completion %. and a high COPE. The high amout of tight window throws is really what you would focus on. Is the QB cause it, like by misreads, late throws, ect. Or is more of a player issue and the QB has to take the risk because players are not creating any separation, or poor protection that forces the QB to throw quicker then attended, ect. All these stats are good and tell a story, but you have to have context with them as well.
 
Look who is in the bottom 3rd of that list. A couple notable names.

Tannehill and Herbert.

The former’s team wins due to a top rush attack and defense. The latter still has a losing record.

Meanwhile Tua owns a winning record as a starting QB despite the albatross of the league’s worst rush attack and pass blocking line and former unsupportive and offensive inept coaching staff.
 
dan the fin said:
It is kinda subjective as there will be human error. So for a QB they look at all his throws and determine if an average NFL QB should or shouldn't have completed each throw. If they say well he should have completed 60% but his actual completed 67% then he is 7% CPOE. It can go the other way as well. If they think it should be 70% but the QB completed 63% he is -7% CPOE. Not really surprising for Tua. He had a high completion % at 68, and also was second or third in tight window throws at like 24%.

With these type of stats. I like to watch a game, then look at these stats, then go re-watch and identify what's the issue. Like with Tua. Great completion %. and a high COPE. The high amout of tight window throws is really what you would focus on. Is the QB cause it, like by misreads, late throws, ect. Or is more of a player issue and the QB has to take the risk because players are not creating any separation, or poor protection that forces the QB to throw quicker then attended, ect. All these stats are good and tell a story, but you have to have context with them as well.
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Thanks for the explanation brother!! That's why I love this place since 2000. I know my profile won't say it but I had another but... yeah, I had another since 2000. Thanks again
 
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