phinsforlife
Active Roster
Make believe the Dolphin's made Tua play out his 5th year option. What would his value be per year if the Dolphins were to resign him after this year? Survey isn't perfect, because it does not address years or other nuances, but people's views as to his current dollar value per year still provide insight.
Prior to the latest with Tua's hip, I would have said his market value already substantially degraded for a few reasons:
-The concussion
-An uncompelling performance by the team
-A less than elite feeling performance from Tua himself. More issues against good teams when it matters most, and issues in the downfield passing game
-Other expensive QBs struggling (Trevor Lawrence, DeShaun Watson, Cousins, etc) potentially getting NFL executives to start to question the wisdom of these deals being handed out as broadly as they were
My guess is Tua would have been closer to the 3 years and $100mm Baker Mayfield got from Tampa than what he got from the Dolphins. Before you say that is crazy, what other team do you think would be chomping at the bit to give Tua more than that? Baker Mayfield told you what the market is, and I do not think all things considered including health, Tua is viewed more fondly by the league than Mayfield. Having said all of that, sometimes a player can be worth more to their own team (PR, marketing, fans, etc) than what their market value is. So maybe Miami would have given Tua $5-$7.5mm more per year than what Mayfield got.
The bloom can come off the rose for QBs very quickly, despite their pedigree. Baker Mayfield was the first player drafted. He actually won a division, and won a playoff game with Cleveland, and it still got to the point where he ended up on a 1 year prove it deal for $4mm.
Now after the latest with Tua's hip (also coming from a hit that seemingly didn't seem all that bad, just like the hit that gave him the concussion, ergo a normal football play that you expect to see often), who knows, but less again I think.
My guess is things would ballpark sort out nowhere near the deal Tua got, and something much closer to Mayfield's deal, which was only 3 years and $100mm. And I bet maybe only $60mm guaranteed for Tua, with some sort of protection wrapped in for injury. I do not think anyone else in the NFL would beat this deal for Tua. There is just a limited market. Only a few QB needy teams every year in position to do it, and in Tua's case every outdoor cold weather team would be out too. Tua would still get a deal from the Dolphins I think, because Tua is worth more to Miami than he is to the rest of the league.
I also wonder, if Tua was made to play out the 5th year option, would they have also extended McDaniel, Waddle, Hill, and Ramsey, and restructured Armstead as well? Ergo, was there a chance the decks could be entirely clear, as opposed to the situation we have now?
For those that try to avoid the question:
-Hindsight is all we have. This is a big issue, and was widely debated at the time. Hindsight is also what you use to evaluate the front office
-No excuses about Tua holding out if he didn't get a deal. The player has no leverage. They don't play, the contract tolls to next year. JaMarr Chase and Tee Higgins wanted new deals, didn't get em, and ultimately took the field. The great ones go out and perform and make themselves more expensive to re-sign!
Late Edit - for the purposes of this survey and simplicity, assume Grier is the GM, as opposed to a new GM. If there was a new GM that is good and has fully autonomy, everything in theory could change.
Late Edit #2 - as pointed out in the discussion, the Ravens (who are the better and smarter organization) made Lamar Jackson play out his 5th year option, and his career at that point was a fair bit better than Tua's was entering this year.
Prior to the latest with Tua's hip, I would have said his market value already substantially degraded for a few reasons:
-The concussion
-An uncompelling performance by the team
-A less than elite feeling performance from Tua himself. More issues against good teams when it matters most, and issues in the downfield passing game
-Other expensive QBs struggling (Trevor Lawrence, DeShaun Watson, Cousins, etc) potentially getting NFL executives to start to question the wisdom of these deals being handed out as broadly as they were
My guess is Tua would have been closer to the 3 years and $100mm Baker Mayfield got from Tampa than what he got from the Dolphins. Before you say that is crazy, what other team do you think would be chomping at the bit to give Tua more than that? Baker Mayfield told you what the market is, and I do not think all things considered including health, Tua is viewed more fondly by the league than Mayfield. Having said all of that, sometimes a player can be worth more to their own team (PR, marketing, fans, etc) than what their market value is. So maybe Miami would have given Tua $5-$7.5mm more per year than what Mayfield got.
The bloom can come off the rose for QBs very quickly, despite their pedigree. Baker Mayfield was the first player drafted. He actually won a division, and won a playoff game with Cleveland, and it still got to the point where he ended up on a 1 year prove it deal for $4mm.
Now after the latest with Tua's hip (also coming from a hit that seemingly didn't seem all that bad, just like the hit that gave him the concussion, ergo a normal football play that you expect to see often), who knows, but less again I think.
My guess is things would ballpark sort out nowhere near the deal Tua got, and something much closer to Mayfield's deal, which was only 3 years and $100mm. And I bet maybe only $60mm guaranteed for Tua, with some sort of protection wrapped in for injury. I do not think anyone else in the NFL would beat this deal for Tua. There is just a limited market. Only a few QB needy teams every year in position to do it, and in Tua's case every outdoor cold weather team would be out too. Tua would still get a deal from the Dolphins I think, because Tua is worth more to Miami than he is to the rest of the league.
I also wonder, if Tua was made to play out the 5th year option, would they have also extended McDaniel, Waddle, Hill, and Ramsey, and restructured Armstead as well? Ergo, was there a chance the decks could be entirely clear, as opposed to the situation we have now?
For those that try to avoid the question:
-Hindsight is all we have. This is a big issue, and was widely debated at the time. Hindsight is also what you use to evaluate the front office
-No excuses about Tua holding out if he didn't get a deal. The player has no leverage. They don't play, the contract tolls to next year. JaMarr Chase and Tee Higgins wanted new deals, didn't get em, and ultimately took the field. The great ones go out and perform and make themselves more expensive to re-sign!
Late Edit - for the purposes of this survey and simplicity, assume Grier is the GM, as opposed to a new GM. If there was a new GM that is good and has fully autonomy, everything in theory could change.
Late Edit #2 - as pointed out in the discussion, the Ravens (who are the better and smarter organization) made Lamar Jackson play out his 5th year option, and his career at that point was a fair bit better than Tua's was entering this year.
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