Upgrades Since '17 - O Edition

[J. David Wannyheimer]

I think everyone should be able to acknowledge that the OL and QB spots have been upgraded considerably, while admitting that the skill position groups (WR, TE, RB) are more in the realm of arguability.

Frankly, that's where I'd like to be more often than not. Let me know that my QB and OL are doing fine, and I can forgive some bull/bear disagreements at the skill positions.

That's not to say I want to be in a position where it's clear that my WR, TE, and/or RBs groups have gotten objectively, significantly worse. That's different. In that case we wouldn't really be talking about subjective disagreements or glass half-full/half-empty. Just empty. Nobody likes that at any position.

I honestly think the receiving corps WILL be better this season, and I'll actually just go ahead and say it, and eat my lumps if they fall flat on their faces.

I think Danny Amendola will be better than Jarvis Landry when he's on the field (maybe 8 games?). I think Jakeem Grant will get more playing time and that's going to matter. I think Mike Gesicki will at least be a wash with Julius Thomas. And I'm not even going into Albert WIlson, who I think is going to pleasantly surprise some people here.

RB is where I'm a little concerned, just because Frank Gore is really getting up there in years and Kenyan Drake is now going to have to shoulder the load for 16 games, something he has never done before. I think that if Drake can stay healthy for 16 games, he will be a breakout star player in the NFL, but I'm a little worried about whether or not he can manage that.

 

[fin415]

we lost our leading rusher and receiver from 2016 (when we went to the playoffs). you can't just look at paper and say we're better. we need to see, but it's probably doubtful we're better than we were in 2016.

You are 100% correct for that version of football that is played with just 1 player on offense and 1 on defense. I seem to be watching a different game than you are. The games I'm watching seem to have an additional 10 guys on the field all at the same time. Occasionally, their coaches look to be trying to structure their schemes around the strengths and weaknesses of those 11 guys. Hmm, maybe all this silly talk about football being a team sport isn't as silly as it sounds?

All these extra guys on the field at one time makes for some interesting entertainment and I'll bet these games are way more fun than the ones your watching.

 

[fin415]

You say "lose" I say no longer willing to employ.

1000x this.

 

[Digital]

Lots of great comments by everyone. Thanks FansinceGWilson!

I generally agree, but as RayR metioned, there's a few other realistic projections along the OL that seem significant. Young LT made a lot of errors, and I'm expecting fewer errors and generally more sound work ethic. Sounds like Sitton and watching last year's film have made an impression on young Tunsil. James … I've never really been a huge fan of his, as he's a poor run blocker and gets injured a lot. He's kinda soft. But if he stays healthy, I'm fine with it. Sitton is a beast. Best guard in the NFL over the last few years, with technique, strength, athleticism, and a tenacity that rubs off on others. Great addition. I was pleasantly surprised by Jesse Davis' development last year, and look forward to watching it continue. Larsen, if healthy, is a solid backup guard. Davis can swing to RT if James gets injured. We have a little depth. Overall, we should have better pass protection, superior run blocking compared to last year, and flexibility that we have not had since Gase arrived. This OL is better. Sure, Pouncey is better pulling than Kilgore, but the lost chemistry from the injuries and poor point of attack play made me sour on Pouncey. Brendel graded out better than Pouncey, so I'm not lamenting the loss.

When you consider Landry, you cannot really look for one person to replace him, because the whole will be different, so it's not just filling a hole in the whole. Landry was exceptional at short passes … and we all agreed we saw too many pointless WR screens. Landry had exceptional hands. Landry was an excellent blocking WR. Mike Gesicki has those great hands and far superior size and speed. Eventually, he will replace Landry, but not likely as a rookie TE. Sadly, Landry's blocking was better than we will initially see from Gesicki, but in time, Gesicki could become a complete TE, offering more in the run and pass games blocking-wise. In the short term, we will add speed and quickness with Albert Wilson and Jakeem Grant, both of whom are far more explosive than Landry. Amendola provides a little of everything from savvy route running to clutch catches to sneaky speed. For short move-the-chain throws we will have 6'6 TE's Mike Gesicki and Durham Smythe to complement DeVante Parker. So yeah, on paper we look good. Injuries are _always_ a concern, but we're now looking at 7 competent guys to fill 4 spots, where last year we only had 4 competent guys.

Both Years: Kenny Stills, DeVante Parker
Last Year: Kenny Stills, DeVante Parker, Jarvis Landry, Julius Thomas (Grant was not played enough last year)
This Year: Kenny Stills, DeVante Parker, Albert Wilson, Danny Amendola, Jakeem Grant, Mike Gesicki, Durham Smythe

Then we added a 3rd down back who blocks better than Damien Williams, catches the ball better than Damien Williams, and hopefully makes less bonehead plays than Damien Williams.

Adding Tannehill back is the 4 game improvement. This is just gravy as the team gets better, more versatile, deeper, and younger.

We're either in the prediction/expectations game or not. If we're not, then that's fine. Head into the year with no predictions as to how they're going to do, be it Super Bowl champs or 0-16. If that's what you want to do, that's fine. Doesn't seem to me like most people actually want to do that though. They want to develop intelligent expectations or predictions on how the team will do. This is a discussion board, after all.

If that's the case, then I've never understood the value of coming in and being the guy that says "that's just on paper, we'll have to see how they actually do on the field." Umm, ok? Yeah I suppose it's not historical fact until it is, in fact, history. But this is a message board. We're discussing how we think the team will do. And discussing the idea of whether a unit is "upgraded" or "downgrade" is inherently inseparable from the predictions/expectations game. So what value is there in being the guy in the room to point out that the games haven't been played yet?

No offense to anybody, I just have never understood that.

I realize this is not aimed at me, but I just wanted to say that I agree with everything you said here CK. The silliness of the expression "on paper" could easily be replaced with the exact same comment about every team "if they stay healthy" and while some players are more likely to get injured (Koa Misi, Mike Pouncey, etc.), no team is going to stay completely healthy. Everything is a combo of conjecture and projections. It's not science … it's loosely quantifiable art, and we love it.

 

[Fin Fan in Cali]

Johnathan Hankins is still available. Probably waiting for camp injuries to sign.

 

[Ray R]

I do hope the coaches and front office know what they are doing with the kicker situation. Just when it seemed we might have a reliable kicker, we are back to unknown at best. Like you say if it goes south it could easily cost us multiple games. Hell, the NE dynasty was darn near launched on the leg of a kicker.

Last year we replaced a proven kicker with a new guy and there was a lot of complaining. The new guy did very well and got a good deal in free agency and made a lot more money. We now have another new guy who shows a lot of capability who will make less money. Lets look at this like a punch list.

Year - Player - FG's - FG Attempts - FG % - Longest FG - Notes
2015/6 - Andrew Franks - 29 - 37 - 78.4%- 55 yards - 3 clutch FG's to tie or win games.
2017 - Cody Parker - 21 - 23 - 91.3%- 54 yards - AFC Special Teams Player of the week for scoring 13 of the Dolphins 19 points.
2018 - TBA - TBD - TBD - TBD - TBD - TBD


Our history the last two years with kickers has been good and shown some improvement each year. This year we may have a kicker that we drafted, not picked up off waivers or something. Considering our teams drafting the last three years and particularly the special teams player selections for the last three years and the talent displayed in our recent OTA's, I think we are in a good position with our kicker situation. Keep in mind we took Cody Parker a year after he missed a FG playing for the Browns that would have had the Browns beating us. There was a lot of discussion as to whether or not we really wanted him. Those Special Teams coaches have demonstrated to me over the last three years that they know what they are doing!

 

[JahnDho]

Depth should be widely acknowledged to be much better with the exception of the QB position.

I don't know if the OL are built to be better run blockers than 2017, though I also can't say they're built to be worse run blockers, but they are most certainly built to be better pass protectors in 2018 than they were in 2017. And they weren't bad in pass protection in 2017, either.

Josh Sitton is an obvious upgrade particularly in this pass protection department. It's straight forward in that he's a guy who is better at certain things than the people that played here before him.

There's a tough comp between Mike Pouncey and Daniel Kilgore only because there's no way Pouncey should have played 16 games last year. We got really, *really* lucky in that regard. It just shouldn't have happened and I think the Chargers are kidding themselves. If you stack up what Miami got out of Pouncey one year ago versus what they can expect out of Kilgore this year, then as you suggest we might be talking about more or less a tie, although there is one important factor that is clearly in Kilgore's favor which I'll get to in a second. However if you're stacking up 2018 Mike Pouncey (now of the Chargers) with 2018 Daniel Kilgore (now of the Dolphins), I think you have to take Kilgore hands down because he's about the same quality on the field, and you should expect him to actually be on the field for the season whereas it feels like the Chargers will be lucky to get 8 games out of Pouncey.

On the other hand, there is one important factor working in Kilgore 2018's favor versus Pouncey 2017, even accounting for Pouncey having played all 16 games. That is the amount of practice work Pouncey missed because of the plan they developed for him to try and get him to play all 16 games. The plan WORKED, and is a testament to the skill of our sports performance, training and conditioning, and analytics staff. They should be applauded. But the plan had big drawbacks. He never practiced, and as a result the chemistry of the line suffered, particularly toward the beginning of the year. Daniel Kilgore is a cerebral guy, noted for how quickly he can digest a new playbook, and he will be practicing all spring, summer, and autumn with the same four guys around him (Tunsil, Sitton, Davis, James).

That should improve the OL's effectiveness in ways that may not be quite as obvious as seeing a guy on the field that has better anchor or better mobility, etc.

The other upgrades on the OL are what we in my business might think of as either evolutionary catalysts, or based on easy comps.

Ja'Wuan James only played 8 games. Could that happen again? Sure. Is the expected value of his 2018 games played at 8.0? No. He's played about 72% of his games in the pros, so you figure 11 or 12 games in 2018. But I would argue that number is low if you account for his college career, where he was an injury-free stalwart. He doesn't have degenerative issues. I would argue that he might be more in line for some upward reversion to the mean in terms of his health and availability. I am personally thinking 13 to 16 games but that's just me. And he was one of the best right tackles in football when he did play, so getting 4 to 8 more games out of him would be a pretty nice sized upgrade.

Jesse Davis played his final 6 games at right guard. He played right guard better than he did left guard, particularly in pass protection. He's already been declared the starter at right guard. If he simply plays the full year at right guard the way he did the last 6 games then Miami will have a second upgrade on the guards unit. On the other hand, if the better play for those 6 games was more or less some random noise, small sample stuff, there could be a reversion, and perhaps we do not see an upgrade versus 2017. But there's an evolutionary catalyst lying in the wait here. Last year was literally his first year playing NFL football. He'd been around the NFL a year before but hadn't played. Don't young players grow with experience? Isn't that a thing? Especially as they stop being moved around and are allowed to focus on one spot? It's not something you should BANK on, but it is something that you should expect to be true more often than not.

Same with Laremy Tunsil. He wasn't actually that bad in 2017, penalties aside. But he was in his first year playing NFL left tackle. Don't we expect, as a matter of default, young players to grow as they get more experience? Especially true if they're former high picks with great tools.

So overall I think the outlook of the OL should be very good. Expectations should be high in pass protection, though a little less clear in run blocking.

Has anyone actually looked at Kilgores’s career in SF? Special teamer early in his career, riddled with injuries and missed games, last year was his first time playing all 16 games...so you’re argument of practice time is a moot point. Grades out poorly in pass protection. What he lacks in talent he makes up in effort; still a career avg C at best.

Sitton is an upgrade at guard, but the rest are a bit unproven. We can hope they improve, but compared to the top 15 OL in the NFL, I can’t find reason to be optimistic. I just don’t agree with everyone’s optimism here.

 

[miamiron]

Last year we replaced a proven kicker with a new guy and there was a lot of complaining. The new guy did very well and got a good deal in free agency and made a lot more money. We now have another new guy who shows a lot of capability who will make less money. Lets look at this like a punch list.

Year - Player - FG's - FG Attempts - FG % - Longest FG - Notes
2015/6 - Andrew Franks - 29 - 37 - 78.4%- 55 yards - 3 clutch FG's to tie or win games.
2017 - Cody Parker - 21 - 23 - 91.3%- 54 yards - AFC Special Teams Player of the week for scoring 13 of the Dolphins 19 points.
2018 - TBA - TBD - TBD - TBD - TBD - TBD


Our history the last two years with kickers has been good and shown some improvement each year. This year we may have a kicker that we drafted, not picked up off waivers or something. Considering our teams drafting the last three years and particularly the special teams player selections for the last three years and the talent displayed in our recent OTA's, I think we are in a good position with our kicker situation. Keep in mind we took Cody Parker a year after he missed a FG playing for the Browns that would have had the Browns beating us. There was a lot of discussion as to whether or not we really wanted him. Those Special Teams coaches have demonstrated to me over the last three years that they know what they are doing!

As much as I hope for the best
you just can't over look Greg Josephs poor
field goal kicking college career

He made 57 kicks out of 82 attempts
or 69% which would rank him as one of the worst field goal
kickers in the NFL

Just to compare him to the best FG kicker in the Nfl last season
Robbie Gould made 39 of 41 attempts for a 95% accuracy

10 kickers were 90% or better last season

69% FG accuracy will kill this team over the season

Jason Sanders wasn't much better making 25 out of 35 attempts in his college career
for a 71% accuracy which will not cut it if we expect to have a winning season

I hope one of these guys steps up but if neither does I hope
we can bring in a free agent vet to manage that position

 

[VBCheeseGrater]

Last year we replaced a proven kicker with a new guy and there was a lot of complaining. The new guy did very well and got a good deal in free agency and made a lot more money. We now have another new guy who shows a lot of capability who will make less money. Lets look at this like a punch list.

Year - Player - FG's - FG Attempts - FG % - Longest FG - Notes
2015/6 - Andrew Franks - 29 - 37 - 78.4%- 55 yards - 3 clutch FG's to tie or win games.
2017 - Cody Parker - 21 - 23 - 91.3%- 54 yards - AFC Special Teams Player of the week for scoring 13 of the Dolphins 19 points.
2018 - TBA - TBD - TBD - TBD - TBD - TBD


Our history the last two years with kickers has been good and shown some improvement each year. This year we may have a kicker that we drafted, not picked up off waivers or something. Considering our teams drafting the last three years and particularly the special teams player selections for the last three years and the talent displayed in our recent OTA's, I think we are in a good position with our kicker situation. Keep in mind we took Cody Parker a year after he missed a FG playing for the Browns that would have had the Browns beating us. There was a lot of discussion as to whether or not we really wanted him. Those Special Teams coaches have demonstrated to me over the last three years that they know what they are doing!

Good point about Parker last year. if these guys can do it again with the drafted guy ill be impressed, just concerned if it goes wrong and the ensuing game "winning" kicks. Last year was the first time in awhile I had some faith in those 40+ yd kicks.

 

[PhinsAAA]

As much as I hope for the best
you just can't over look Greg Josephs poor
field goal kicking college career

He made 57 kicks out of 82 attempts
or 69% which would rank him as one of the worst field goal
kickers in the NFL

Just to compare him to the best FG kicker in the Nfl last season
Robbie Gould made 39 of 41 attempts for a 95% accuracy

10 kickers were 90% or better last season

69% FG accuracy will kill this team over the season

Jason Sanders wasn't much better making 25 out of 35 attempts in his college career
for a 71% accuracy which will not cut it if we expect to have a winning season

I hope one of these guys steps up but if neither does I hope
we can bring in a free agent vet to manage that position

I'm pretty sure I remember seeing an article talking about how bad the holding was for our new kicker in college. Could be something I honestly know nothing about how to kick a FG but I would imagine the holder plays a big part. Not saying he would have made more but maybe someone remembers who wrote that?

 

[Sherif]

It's going to come down to depth on the OL and if the coaching staff can have some luck with FA signings. We have to gel on offense and put the slow starts behind us, though one thing I'll say is that Landry was our most physical receiver so I can see some teams trying to make us one dimensional on offense. I like the momentum that Drake, Grant and X had at the end of the season. Parker, Stills, Wilson and Gesicki are going to have to get separation quick.

 

[dirkey]

We're either in the prediction/expectations game or not. If we're not, then that's fine. Head into the year with no predictions as to how they're going to do, be it Super Bowl champs or 0-16. If that's what you want to do, that's fine. Doesn't seem to me like most people actually want to do that though. They want to develop intelligent expectations or predictions on how the team will do. This is a discussion board, after all.

If that's the case, then I've never understood the value of coming in and being the guy that says "that's just on paper, we'll have to see how they actually do on the field." Umm, ok? Yeah I suppose it's not historical fact until it is, in fact, history. But this is a message board. We're discussing how we think the team will do. And discussing the idea of whether a unit is "upgraded" or "downgrade" is inherently inseparable from the predictions/expectations game. So what value is there in being the guy in the room to point out that the games haven't been played yet?

No offense to anybody, I just have never understood that.

I think at times the "on paper thing needs to be said, because you get people spouting things like "how can you not see that x position has been upgraded" and talking like every single move the FO made is going to work out. That's way more annoying in my opinion, when has every move worked out?

 

[McMichael]

We're either in the prediction/expectations game or not. If we're not, then that's fine. Head into the year with no predictions as to how they're going to do, be it Super Bowl champs or 0-16. If that's what you want to do, that's fine. Doesn't seem to me like most people actually want to do that though. They want to develop intelligent expectations or predictions on how the team will do. This is a discussion board, after all.

If that's the case, then I've never understood the value of coming in and being the guy that says "that's just on paper, we'll have to see how they actually do on the field." Umm, ok? Yeah I suppose it's not historical fact until it is, in fact, history. But this is a message board. We're discussing how we think the team will do. And discussing the idea of whether a unit is "upgraded" or "downgrade" is inherently inseparable from the predictions/expectations game. So what value is there in being the guy in the room to point out that the games haven't been played yet?

No offense to anybody, I just have never understood that.

So true...its literally like a Meteorologist saying:

"There is a 70% chance of rain in your area"

and somebody else saying:

"You don't know its going to rain there until it does!"....

It might be true, but the whole point is making predictions based on numbers, past performances and other variables

 

[miamiron]

I'm pretty sure I remember seeing an article talking about how bad the holding was for our new kicker in college. Could be something I honestly know nothing about how to kick a FG but I would imagine the holder plays a big part. Not saying he would have made more but maybe someone remembers who wrote that?

For 4 straight years?

 

[ckparrothead]

I think at times the "on paper thing needs to be said, because you get people spouting things like "how can you not see that x position has been upgraded" and talking like every single move the FO made is going to work out. That's way more annoying in my opinion, when has every move worked out?

It's a false construct. If you don't think a move is an upgrade, explain why. Just like if you do think a move is an upgrade, you've got to explain why.

The "on paper" thing and the "wait to see how it plays out" thing are completely useless arguments.