So true...its literally like a Meteorologist saying:
"There is a 70% chance of rain in your area"
and somebody else saying:
"You don't know its going to rain there until it does!"....
It might be true, but the whole point is making predictions based on numbers, past performances and other variables
An important consideration at this point in developing predictions is the prioritizing the values of all this stuff. In effect, we personalize our predictions based on what "numbers, performances and other variables" we feel are most important. There is no wrong or wright way to do this without knowing the actual outcome before making the prediction.
For me, the satisfaction comes from making some specific, quantifiable predictions, getting some of them right and readjusting my prioritizing based on those successful predictions I made. For example, when I first started to follow the Dolphins I made several predictions. They were as follows:
1) The first 4 games of 2016 would have a lot of problems while the team got up to speed with Gases' game plans, just like what happened with the bears in 2015.
I got this right!
2) We would go 10-6 for the year. I based this on the performance of the 2015 Bears who were competitive, but not as good in my opinion. The 2016 Dolphins were competitive and a bit better than the Bears.
I got this right!
3) I predicted Gase would get the most out of some 2nd and 3rd tier players, based on what happened to the 2015 Bears.
I got this right!
4) I did not make a prediction about getting into the playoffs with this record, because I don't feel I know enough about all the other teams in the NFL and how they might get seated.
5) I made a prediction for the score of each game we played and if we would win or lose. I got the number of total W-L right, but I had 6 games where the W-L was reversed. I didn't get any of the scores right but about 1/2 the time I was within a touchdown one way or the other.
This is an area for me that needs some improvement, but that will require a more detailed analysis of other teams that I am not willing to take time for.
As for 2017, forget it. None of my predictions included the draconian absurdities that followed the Dolphins last year. I have decided to modify my game day predictions based on the weather forecast for that week at that location. Maybe I did learn something from last year.
As for 2018 I am making the following predictions:
1)
If we win our first 5 games we will go undefeated for the season.
Rational: I am focusing on the first 1/3rd of the season because that is where I think we will be the least stable. All teams do some developing the first few games and we are no exception. The best indicator for me for seeing wins in the first 4 or 5 games is that we will be presenting an offense that has improved in capability across every facet of the offense. We will be using a more varied playbook and this will all be new to our opponents' defenses. Not many teams have made as significant a change in their play style and we will have gotten better at stopping them due to our new acquisitions of players and coaches.
After these first games we will continue to improve through having more available plays and improved team coordination during those plays. At this point we will probably be a better team than anyone we play against for the rest of the season.
2)
If we don't win all of the first five games, I believe we will end up 12-4 or 13-3 for the season and will make the playoffs because those kinds of numbers almost always get you in. I don't think this will be due to loosing to some better teams, but to our making some mistakes in those games that the other teams capitalize on.
3) As for post game play predictions, I want to wait to see which players we have lost and which players have exceeded expectations. I also want to look at all the playoff teams performances over the last 4 games to see whose opponents games are peaking up. I feel this is the most significant consideration for a team in the playoffs. Identifying why they are peaking can give great insight into how effective we will be against them and visa versa.
4) As for the Superbowl, all bets are off. a Superbowl is a season in itself. Any team that gets into the Superbowl, play the most consistently and still makes some big plays is the most likely to win. Given the extra time to prepare and the fact that there is no reason to hide any capability in order to fool a team the following week, makes this the greatest show on earth.
