I posted months ago that it would be 8 or 8.5. That's probably what you will see, a mixture of 8 over and 8.5 under, meaning the juice will favor over 8 or under 8.5, depending on which number the individual book chooses to use.
Keep in mind the season over/unders are primarily the feast of the sharpest bettors in town, the guys who routinely tie up tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands for the duration of the season. They can afford to do that if they have significant edge, or are able to play a "middle" like over 8.5 and under 9.5. Sometimes these numbers can run, or jump, from one number to another if there is a vital injury or acquisition(s).
Vegas wise guys look to bet the under on those season wins. A conservative estimate is 75% of the time. I used to be involved in a 3-man group with two of the biggest bettors in town, circa '94 to '98. I doubt we bet over on the season wins more than a handful of times. If so, it was always on the lowest numbers, like Miami last year.
They know the public loves the over and therefore the numbers often are shaded toward the over. It's not uncommon for the season wins to add up to 4 or 5 more wins than is possible in an NFL season, given the number of games. It seemingly impacts everyone, the fascination with over. A few years ago Greg Cote made his NFL predictions for every team on the eve of the season and had something like 12 more wins than is possible.
The NFL is a bounce league. If you won significantly fewer or more than expected a year ago, the tendency is to recoil toward the previous level. The wise guys know that so they are salivating to bet Miami under, regardless of personnel specifics. It doesn't have to be correct handicapping but in Nevada the idea is to persistently grasp small sensible advantage. The big bettors don't see Parcells or Sparano or Pennington or anyone else when evaluating the '09 Dolphins. That's the brutal reality. I've been among the conversations, linesmaking and betting for two decades. Personnel literally never comes up, unless it's something dramatic like a star QB going down or shifting teams. They used to look at me like someone from outer space when I broke down personnel matchups, particularly in the trenches, on the radio sports wagering programs on the eve of the games. Las Vegas sharps see Miami as an 11-5 team that was projected to win 5 or 6 times. The next season that type of team more often than not will decline, and by more than expected. It's that simple. Let's hope it's wrong.
Frankly, it makes no sense to tie up small amounts on the season win prop. There has to be a value consideration and no way a 4-8 month hold (depending when you wager) equates to value if it is a small to moderate wager. Too many guys make that bet as an amusement, or something to chat and brag about. I guess that's okay but serious players wouldn't think of it. You'd be much better off saving the cash and using it for week to week speculation.
