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Waddle vs Smith

In regards to press man - for 2019, Sharp (or PFF in 2017) has teams in man coverage ~40% of the time, and when in man using press coverage (as opposed to off man) ~45% of the time. Making an estimated 18% of the time in press man coverage. I'd raise that to ~25%, because they include some hybrid versions of shell with man under as "zone". Whatever the exact numbers, even if Smith was less effective vs press coverage (and there's film evidence he's not) he'd still be very effective much of the time. That's assuming teams don't change their tendencies vs Smith, but if teams are going away from what they're best at specifically to stop a rookie wr you've won already.

Now the injury argument is something else, as is the "pushed off his route downfield" argument, but press coverage deficiencies, even if they exist, won't completely derail Slim in the NFL. FWIW, I'm back to liking Chase the most among WR's, but it's close. ( and if I keep reading this board, I'll probably change to Pitts...)
 
I think where we disagree is here: I believe the NFL defenders are leaps and bounds more powerful and challenging than any defenders in college. You seem to disagree and assume that ability to beat boys at the collegiate level is a 1 to 1 equating of how it will be to beat NFL CB's.

There is a lot of data on small receivers struggling when they reach the NFL. We can debate on why that is, but let's at least agree that the data is fairly clear. Bigger stronger guys tend to do better. That's why Chase Claypool and Tee Higgins were not as dominant in college, and Henry Ruggs III was selected first of the WR's in last year's class. But one year into their NFL careers, those bigger stronger guys had a rather seamless adjustment, while Ruggs is still fending off critics calling him a bust.

If you watch the press man CB's when they enter the NFL, it takes them a while (usually 1 year or so) to adjust, because the game is a lot more physical and complex. This is one of the reasons why I'm not calling Igbinoghene a bust yet, despite grading out as the worst CB in the NFL last year by at least one source. Those struggles are real. The amount of improvement the CB needs to make--including physically--is immense. We had elite talents at CB like Tankersley who simply couldn't make the transition. The same thing exists on the WR side of that matchup.

Can a WR beat press man without physicality? Absolutely, yes. But the question is not CAN he ... it is HOW OFTEN WILL he? If Smith can beat press man 90% of the time, I don't care one bit how he does it. But if he beats the press 70% of the time, then he's simply not worth the #3 overall pick, because he can't be relied upon enough to be a #1 WR. The reality probably lies somewhere in between the 70% and 90% number ... but exactly where it is will determine whether Smith becomes an All-Pro or a roster bubble guy. We've taken fliers on high draft pick castoffs before, like Taco Charlton and Shaq Lawson recently. They didn't work out. Just being a top prospect doesn't guarantee you'll become a good pro. I think Devonta Smith has all the things he needs to succeed except the muscle mass. The whole question is when he gains that muscle mass, how often will he succeed?

There's room for reasonable minds to disagree. For Smith's sake, I hope you're right. And if anyone we draft ever looks like Smith did against college kids, we've got an HoF'er on our hands. :)
I don't think I am really explaining what I mean when it comes to Smith. I agree with you that in general bigger stronger is better. What I am saying is to me Smith is the rare case where yes his weight is an outlier when it comes to the NFL but he is also an outlier when it comes to film/production in college. The way Smith dominated in the SEC and also against the top teams with top NFL talent just is not suppose to happen. And it is not just the overall numbers. It is the way he did it at times he is not just open, it looks like it would have been blown coverage but it wasn't he just beat his man that bad. His film is like watching Bo Jackson in tecmo football. His film is the best I have seen from a WR since Randy Moss. And I am not saying he will be as good as Moss just that he got that level of separation in college. Which for Smith is very impressive since it was in the SEC and he did it against the top talent in college. And another thing that with this year Bama was not loaded at WR once Waddle got hurt. Smith was the clear cut number 1 WR. DC put their best CBs on him, they game planned on ways to stop him and none of it worked.

I guess to me the outlier of domination on film out ways the outlier of weight. But in the end it is the NFL draft so who knows. My money is he becomes a top 10ish WR.
 
I think where we disagree is here: I believe the NFL defenders are leaps and bounds more powerful and challenging than any defenders in college. You seem to disagree and assume that ability to beat boys at the collegiate level is a 1 to 1 equating of how it will be to beat NFL CB's.

There is a lot of data on small receivers struggling when they reach the NFL. We can debate on why that is, but let's at least agree that the data is fairly clear. Bigger stronger guys tend to do better. That's why Chase Claypool and Tee Higgins were not as dominant in college, and Henry Ruggs III was selected first of the WR's in last year's class. But one year into their NFL careers, those bigger stronger guys had a rather seamless adjustment, while Ruggs is still fending off critics calling him a bust.

If you watch the press man CB's when they enter the NFL, it takes them a while (usually 1 year or so) to adjust, because the game is a lot more physical and complex. This is one of the reasons why I'm not calling Igbinoghene a bust yet, despite grading out as the worst CB in the NFL last year by at least one source. Those struggles are real. The amount of improvement the CB needs to make--including physically--is immense. We had elite talents at CB like Tankersley who simply couldn't make the transition. The same thing exists on the WR side of that matchup.

Can a WR beat press man without physicality? Absolutely, yes. But the question is not CAN he ... it is HOW OFTEN WILL he? If Smith can beat press man 90% of the time, I don't care one bit how he does it. But if he beats the press 70% of the time, then he's simply not worth the #3 overall pick, because he can't be relied upon enough to be a #1 WR. The reality probably lies somewhere in between the 70% and 90% number ... but exactly where it is will determine whether Smith becomes an All-Pro or a roster bubble guy. We've taken fliers on high draft pick castoffs before, like Taco Charlton and Shaq Lawson recently. They didn't work out. Just being a top prospect doesn't guarantee you'll become a good pro. I think Devonta Smith has all the things he needs to succeed except the muscle mass. The whole question is when he gains that muscle mass, how often will he succeed?

There's room for reasonable minds to disagree. For Smith's sake, I hope you're right. And if anyone we draft ever looks like Smith did against college kids, we've got an HoF'er on our hands. :)
I would also like to point out that a lot of players you bring up don't really fall in line with Smith. What I mean by that is not just a size thing but pure athletic ability vs production. Like you talked about X well he has great film production in college he was projected as a 1st rounder by a lot of people until he had a very poor combine. But he is a great NFL player because he has high ball awareness and great technique. A guy like Ruggs was picked high because of his 40 time. He was the number 3 WR on Bama and his production was not even close to Smith and JJ that year. Taco is the same as a Michigan fan I can tell you his nickname was Jane. Looks like Tarzan plays like Jane. Like I said to me it is a balancing act got to weigh both things natural physical ability and actual ability to produce on the football field.
 
what about Chase?
I think if we were able to survey 10 GM's, some would list Chase as the #1 receiver this year, some Smith and a few Waddle. Kind of depends what a team is looking for, but I think it's a good argument between those three.

You could even potentially add Pitts to the mix.
 
I like Waddle, too, but I think Smith will help us more. Smith is a special talent. His ability to separate along with his catch rate will give Tua the confidence to throw his way. Furthermore, there are other slot WR we can hopefully get later in round 2 whereas someone with Smith’s ability may be harder to find. Not saying I would be unhappy with Waddle if we grabbed him. I just prefer Smith over Waddle for our team and who we have on our roster right now.
 
I don't think I am really explaining what I mean when it comes to Smith. I agree with you that in general bigger stronger is better. What I am saying is to me Smith is the rare case where yes his weight is an outlier when it comes to the NFL but he is also an outlier when it comes to film/production in college. The way Smith dominated in the SEC and also against the top teams with top NFL talent just is not suppose to happen. And it is not just the overall numbers. It is the way he did it at times he is not just open, it looks like it would have been blown coverage but it wasn't he just beat his man that bad. His film is like watching Bo Jackson in tecmo football. His film is the best I have seen from a WR since Randy Moss. And I am not saying he will be as good as Moss just that he got that level of separation in college. Which for Smith is very impressive since it was in the SEC and he did it against the top talent in college. And another thing that with this year Bama was not loaded at WR once Waddle got hurt. Smith was the clear cut number 1 WR. DC put their best CBs on him, they game planned on ways to stop him and none of it worked.

I guess to me the outlier of domination on film out ways the outlier of weight. But in the end it is the NFL draft so who knows. My money is he becomes a top 10ish WR.
Well it is possible that he is the rare exception ... but I'm not going to accept that one on faith. I wouldn't draft him at #3 overall, and he will not last until #18 overall, so it's a moot point. But, we shall see. Maybe he is the guy who breaks the mold of the last 20 years. Or, maybe he puts on a boat-load of muscle and loses very little quickness ... although that is unlikely.
 
I would also like to point out that a lot of players you bring up don't really fall in line with Smith. What I mean by that is not just a size thing but pure athletic ability vs production. Like you talked about X well he has great film production in college he was projected as a 1st rounder by a lot of people until he had a very poor combine. But he is a great NFL player because he has high ball awareness and great technique. A guy like Ruggs was picked high because of his 40 time. He was the number 3 WR on Bama and his production was not even close to Smith and JJ that year. Taco is the same as a Michigan fan I can tell you his nickname was Jane. Looks like Tarzan plays like Jane. Like I said to me it is a balancing act got to weigh both things natural physical ability and actual ability to produce on the football field.
Well I pointed out X as an example of the CB improvement from college to the NFL. So that was never meant to be a comparison of Smith ... but a comparison of the competition Smith has faced vs. the competition he will face in the NFL. Hope that is clear.

Ruggs is another undersized Alabama WR who wowed people ... I couldn't find a better comparision. The most direct comparision to Ruggs would be Waddle ... but Smith is far more undersized than any other prospect I can even think of in the last 5 years. I'd give you a better comparison ... if I could find one. Guys who are 6'1 and 165 lbs. in the NFL are .... non-existant. Hopefully when he enters the NFL he'll weigh in at 185 lbs. or more, and he can have a chance to succeed. But if he doesn't add muscle from his Alabama playing weight, then I really fear for the kid's success and long term career. I can't find any DL who weigh less than 230 lbs. succeeding in the NFL ... and I can't find any WR's weighing 165 lbs. succeeding in the NFL. I am open to a player who re-defines one of those scenarios.
 
Smith is a natural catching the ball (great hands) he glides down the field and has a knack for big plays
 
Between the two, I love Waddle. Better than waddle or smith may be Chase.

Toney is intriguing for a pick @ 18 rather than a running back cause you can get williams from unc or maybe even Travis E. or n. Harris from bama early in the second or Even later, depending on how the draft goes.

I know it’s not common to pick a player at this “position” so high..but Kyle Pitts @ 3 or even trading down a few picks and possibly getting him is really an awesome idea.

He is a true “unicorn” as he’s been described as in he’s not a true TE OR WR but a mix of both..and he’s just a mismatch nightmare..even more than Any of the wideouts this class if you ask me. 50/50 balls are more like a 80/20 or more Ball and the dude had zero drops last year. Dude is different from anything perhaps ever seen in the nfl @ 6’6” and his ability to dominate first round talent linebackers and corners alike.

Something to ponder..
 
Pitts dominated against everyone. Even number one pick Surtain could not cover him. Double teaming does not stop him. Red zone beast. He is like a waller or Kielce. Now Smith is good too and so is waddle but chase fits nfl prototype too
 
Pitts dominated against everyone. Even number one pick Surtain could not cover him. Double teaming does not stop him. Red zone beast. He is like a waller or Kielce. Now Smith is good too and so is waddle but chase fits nfl prototype too
Agreed 💯 percent.

Pitts has dominated first round talents like Surtain @ Alabama and Joseph @ Kentucky this year..and Derek stingley Jr. from LSU last season as well..

AND IT is laughable putting a linebacker on him...in other words..good luck!
 
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