Waddle vs Smith | Page 5 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Waddle vs Smith

Yes, we were, and I don't see the relavence of Holt's numbers.

You refuse to admit that guys of that size/build typically do not turn out to be great.

The ones that do are few, and far between, and were generally also in very specific situations.

Holt and Harrison were both great players. They are also the exception, not the rule.

Using them as examples is, therefore, a bad comparison, IMO.

Let's put it another way.

Would you prefer Tory Holt, or Julio Jones.

Marvin Harrison, or Megatron?

I get that you want the Dolphins to have a dynamic, take over a game type reciever. So do I, but let's not grasp at straws with the #3 pick.
I am not seeing how your argument holds up.

Are you suggesting Jones and Megatron are not also exceptions, but are the rule?

Holt and Harrison's combined numbers...
2,022 receptions; 27,962 yards; 202 TD receptions; 16 seasons 1,000+ yards; 11 seasons 10 or more TDs; 4 Super Bowls; 2 Championships

Jones and Johnson's combined numbers...
1,579 receptions; 23,515 yards; 143 TD receptions; 14 seasons 1,000+ yards; 5 seasons 10 or more TDs; 1 Super Bowl; 0 Championships

And if there is an argument that Jones and CJ hold up better because they are bigger and stronger does not hold true. Megatron's father talked him into playing his 9th and final season. Megatron was ready to call it quits after 8 seasons due to how much pain he was in. Now he grows CBD and his cause is for players to be able to use CBD to deal with pain.

Julio Jones is at 10 years and has been a bit banged up himself, including playing only 9 games last year.

Games Played...

Holt, 11 seasons = 9 years 16 games; 1 year 15 games; 1 year 14 games = played in 173 of a possible 176 games (98.3%) + 10 postseason games
Harrison, 13 season = 8 years 16 games; 3 years 15 games; 1 year 12 games; 1 year 5 games = played in 190 of possible 208 games (91.3%) + 16 postseason games

Jones, 10 seasons = 4 seasons 16 games; 2 seasons 15 games; 1 season 14 games; 1 season 13 games; 1 season 9 games; 1 season 5 games = played 135 of a possible 160 games (84.3% of games) + 8 postseason games
Megatron, 9 seasons = 4 seasons 16 games; 2 seasons 15 games; 2 seasons 14 games; 1 season 13 games = played 135 of a possible 144 games (93.7%) + 2 postseason games

I got to go with the undersized guys on this one. The longer Jones plays, the more games he is likely to miss.

What I think gives the Slim Reaper a chance to be special besides what he showed while at Alabama is a 78.5" wingspan with elite level 9 3/8" hands that swallows footballs up, is how smooth his running is in which his head isn't bouncing around leading to drops. I remember Jerry Rice had to work on that following his rookie because his head was bouncing around resulting in drops.

I don't recall many defenders getting a clean hit on Smith and that little frame is strong. I recall the championship game in which 3 players (600+ lbs) were wrapped around him and couldn't get him down or move him backwards. To me, making that a habit rather than the occasions he needs a yard or two for a 1st down or TD might lead to injury.

I am not attached to Devonta being drafted, but I would be happy to have him if they did. I can also see that arguments Chase, Waddle, Sewell, Parsons and trust Grier/Flo have many ways to go to address needs and will be fluid as FA signing and the draft evolves. I imagine Devonta is right up at the top of the list with Chase and Waddle for WRs and deservedly so. I don't think his body type is going to rule him out from having a long and successful career, but every player's career can be cut short.
 
I am not seeing how your argument holds up.

Are you suggesting Jones and Megatron are not also exceptions, but are the rule?

Holt and Harrison's combined numbers...
2,022 receptions; 27,962 yards; 202 TD receptions; 16 seasons 1,000+ yards; 11 seasons 10 or more TDs; 4 Super Bowls; 2 Championships

Jones and Johnson's combined numbers...
1,579 receptions; 23,515 yards; 143 TD receptions; 14 seasons 1,000+ yards; 5 seasons 10 or more TDs; 1 Super Bowl; 0 Championships

And if there is an argument that Jones and CJ hold up better because they are bigger and stronger does not hold true. Megatron's father talked him into playing his 9th and final season. Megatron was ready to call it quits after 8 seasons due to how much pain he was in. Now he grows CBD and his cause is for players to be able to use CBD to deal with pain.

Julio Jones is at 10 years and has been a bit banged up himself, including playing only 9 games last year.

Games Played...

Holt, 11 seasons = 9 years 16 games; 1 year 15 games; 1 year 14 games = played in 173 of a possible 176 games (98.3%) + 10 postseason games
Harrison, 13 season = 8 years 16 games; 3 years 15 games; 1 year 12 games; 1 year 5 games = played in 190 of possible 208 games (91.3%) + 16 postseason games

Jones, 10 seasons = 4 seasons 16 games; 2 seasons 15 games; 1 season 14 games; 1 season 13 games; 1 season 9 games; 1 season 5 games = played 135 of a possible 160 games (84.3% of games) + 8 postseason games
Megatron, 9 seasons = 4 seasons 16 games; 2 seasons 15 games; 2 seasons 14 games; 1 season 13 games = played 135 of a possible 144 games (93.7%) + 2 postseason games

I got to go with the undersized guys on this one. The longer Jones plays, the more games he is likely to miss.

What I think gives the Slim Reaper a chance to be special besides what he showed while at Alabama is a 78.5" wingspan with elite level 9 3/8" hands that swallows footballs up, is how smooth his running is in which his head isn't bouncing around leading to drops. I remember Jerry Rice had to work on that following his rookie because his head was bouncing around resulting in drops.

I don't recall many defenders getting a clean hit on Smith and that little frame is strong. I recall the championship game in which 3 players (600+ lbs) were wrapped around him and couldn't get him down or move him backwards. To me, making that a habit rather than the occasions he needs a yard or two for a 1st down or TD might lead to injury.

I am not attached to Devonta being drafted, but I would be happy to have him if they did. I can also see that arguments Chase, Waddle, Sewell, Parsons and trust Grier/Flo have many ways to go to address needs and will be fluid as FA signing and the draft evolves. I imagine Devonta is right up at the top of the list with Chase and Waddle for WRs and deservedly so. I don't think his body type is going to rule him out from having a long and successful career, but every player's career can be cut short.
You are taking the discussion out of the original context.

Holt and Harrison, again, were not my comparisons. Someone else brought them up. Hell, holt's playing weight was 200 lbs, so that's no comparison at all.

Yes, CJ is an outlier as well. That was the whole point, as it related to the context of using top picks on the WR position. Stop trying to make the discussion something other than what it actually was.

If you think Smith is "special" that's fine. I don't.

List all the great 165 lb WRs over the last 4 decades. I'll wait........
 
You are taking the discussion out of the original context.

Holt and Harrison, again, were not my comparisons. Someone else brought them up. Hell, holt's playing weight was 200 lbs, so that's no comparison at all.

Yes, CJ is an outlier as well. That was the whole point, as it related to the context of using top picks on the WR position. Stop trying to make the discussion something other than what it actually was.

If you think Smith is "special" that's fine. I don't.

List all the great 165 lb WRs over the last 4 decades. I'll wait........
I don’t spend my life reading your posts.

I had a little time to take a break and responded to the post I read.

I stated my view. I didn’t mean offense, but if you get all bent out of shape about it, okay. But save the lecture.
 
At 160lbs soaking wet or whatever if Smith wasn't pretty nifty shifty he'd be trash.

Add 25-30lbs and he'll prob look plodding and slow.

I see no reason to bet the farm on a stick man when there are legit football players on the board!

Not wild about Waddle (especially post injury -- do we really need another one of those?) but easy choice in this example.

For all this talk (comparison) about Marvin Harrison -- he was 181 at combine and played at 185. Sounds like 20+ lbs to me.

You wanna burn an ultra premium pick on a WR (speed, quicks critical) that needs to add an addition 20% weight?

Or are you betting he'll somehow stay "healthy" (NFL Sound) as a bone rack?
 
I don’t spend my life reading your posts.

I had a little time to take a break and responded to the post I read.

I stated my view. I didn’t mean offense, but if you get all bent out of shape about it, okay. But save the lecture.
Lol...not bent out of shape at all, and yes, it is easy to miss parts of an exchange on a message board.

Didn't mean for it to come off as a lecture. Sorry for that. I was just trying to clarify my point(s).

If you think Smith is a can't miss generational talent thats fine. Personally, I don't believe there is any such thing. I am also a believer in prototypes, which Smith is not. After all, there are prototypes for good reasons.

That's not to say that he can't be successful, or even great. It's just that the odds are against.
 
I like Waddle but he was limping real bad when he played in the CG......Saban should not had let him played but he probably didn't care. Anyway,not sure how bad that injury will affect him but he's not 100% right now. There's no way we draft Waddle at 3 or even if we trade down unless both Chase and Smith are gone. I have seen Waddle going as low as 19 on some mocks so it is possible that he could be there that late.
He played like he reinjured himself on that first catch, which would concern me about his pre-draft medical.
 
My interest in Waddle is his speed, much like it was with Ruggs. I am intrigued. My interest with Smith is his ability to separate, much like Jarvis Landry but with much greater speed. My concern with Ruggs, Waddle and Smith is that they are not physical enough to get off the jam and stay on their routes versus NFL physicality. It will effect whether they are able to get to the spot in their routes when the route requires them to be there, thus creating a window for a precision passer like Tua. In college, almost no DB's are physical, and the receivers' superior speed and quickness almost always dominated the guys they faced.

But one of the biggest jumps up at any position from college to the NFL is at CB, where the press-man corners go from being laughable boys to becoming ultra-quick Paul Bunyon men. It's the story of why someone like Richard Sherman or Xavien Howard can become great in the NFL while only being good at the collegiate level. That level of maturation, development, and muscle use to dominate is simply a different level in the NFL.

There are a lot of receivers who struggle and never really beat that coverage consistently. With the evolution of the route complexity in today's NFL, the OC requires each WR to be exactly where the play calls for them to be--particularly against 1v1 coverage so they can exploit the matchup. In today's NFL, the first option in the route is usually 70% ofthe play design, and if the guy cannot win that route 90% of the time, the whole offense falls apart. Now, for plays farther downfield, those speed guys can do what is required, but most passes today are short passes, which is where those press-man corners dominate and literally shut down offenses. Tyreke Hill typically doesn't catch many 5 yard plays vs. press coverage, but if he can get past the initial bump zone, he can turn intermediate throws into huge gains.

Realistically, Smith probably weighs about 165, and NEEDS an extra 20 pounds of muscle on that tall, skinny frame to even have a chance at not being consistently manhandled. Putting on 20 lbs. of muscle isn't easy, and it definitely will affect his speed and quickness. He simply isn't going to survive the redirect at the LOS against good press-man coverage .... and every DC who employs that type of coverage will dominate him. Waddle will get open more like Jakeem Grant as his speed will scare a lot of DB's and he may be able to juke his way past press-man 50% or more of the time .... but he's still going to be unreliable. Guys like Jamar Chase, who is bigger, beefier, stronger, and does well against that sort of physicality can shine. Someone like Kyle Pitts who is kind of a Shannon Sharpe type WR or Move TE hybrid pass catcher will have no trouble with it. Those are the guys who I see becoming successful and have no fear of adjusting to the physical NFL coverage.
Pure strength is not the only way to beat man press/jam. Technique,quickness, length, body control, route running and footwork. I swear people that say Smith will struggle against pree really haven't watch the kid play they see the weight and jump to conclusions.

Also this whole everyone gets bigger/stronger faster in NFL is not really all that much. As a whole the NFL is bigger faster because you are taking the best athletes from 100+ teams per year and narrowing it down to 32 teams. You bring up X he didn't just get good in the NFL. He had NFL size strength coming out of college. The knock on X which dropped him into the 2nd was his explosion. He has actually lost weight since college. Take a guy that Smith has beaten badly the last 2 years Derek Stingley is a better athlete right now in college then X. These top type kids are reaching their peak physical builds at a younger age then even 10-15 years ago. Go look at a pic of Chase right now really no more way you pack more muscle on his frame without loosing speed flexability. Now look at Stingley even coming out of HS. At the opening which is run like the NFL combine, he was 6'1 at 193, ran a 4.3 laser timed 40, vertical jump of 42 inch. Only big difference from the opening is they don't do the bench but do a Powerball throw. Which his was 43 feet second longest at CB.

Now what you do is go and look at the film and focus on games that he is playing against kids that already have NFL size/speed/strength. Most times you will see drop offs for a WR against the top talent(Georgia/LSU/OSU). With Smith he didnt do just good against these other kids he took them outback to the woodshed. To me if Smith played against lower levels (MAC) or dominated the bottom of the SEC then was just OK vs the NFL talent then the my concern about handling the NFL man would be much higher. As of now I see his weight I worry but then I watch film and say well he is just such a great football player.
 
Why do all of these folks against drafting Smith keep saying he is 160-165 pounds? He is listed as 174.
 
Lol...not bent out of shape at all, and yes, it is easy to miss parts of an exchange on a message board.

Didn't mean for it to come off as a lecture. Sorry for that. I was just trying to clarify my point(s).

If you think Smith is a can't miss generational talent thats fine. Personally, I don't believe there is any such thing. I am also a believer in prototypes, which Smith is not. After all, there are prototypes for good reasons.

That's not to say that he can't be successful, or even great. It's just that the odds are against.
Why isnt he spending his life reading your posts???!!!
 
Why do all of these folks against drafting Smith keep saying he is 160-165 pounds? He is listed as 174.
I think we need to not get too caught up in what people (fans and the media) says about players in the draft process. Remember last year all the bashing of Justin Herbert during the month leading up to the draft. "Herbert can't take snaps under center." "Herbert is wildly inaccurate." The funny thing is the inaccurate qoutes would always use comparisons to Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson. Now you have Allen, Herbert and Jackson doing big things for their respective teams.

I doubt there will more than 3 or 4 times over the course of a season that people will say Smith would have made that play or avoided this injury if he weighed 185 pounds instead of whatever his actual weight is. I don't see dbs knocking him off his routes or jamming him to the degree he's late getting into his routes. As for injuries, they happen to wrs of all sizes. It's funny that when you's short or have a slight build people say it's because you're too small to play in the NFL and if you're bigger people just say you're too soft. The truth is you really can't predict how much injuries will impact a rookies future based on their height or weight.
 
Pure strength is not the only way to beat man press/jam. Technique,quickness, length, body control, route running and footwork. I swear people that say Smith will struggle against pree really haven't watch the kid play they see the weight and jump to conclusions.

Also this whole everyone gets bigger/stronger faster in NFL is not really all that much. As a whole the NFL is bigger faster because you are taking the best athletes from 100+ teams per year and narrowing it down to 32 teams. You bring up X he didn't just get good in the NFL. He had NFL size strength coming out of college. The knock on X which dropped him into the 2nd was his explosion. He has actually lost weight since college. Take a guy that Smith has beaten badly the last 2 years Derek Stingley is a better athlete right now in college then X. These top type kids are reaching their peak physical builds at a younger age then even 10-15 years ago. Go look at a pic of Chase right now really no more way you pack more muscle on his frame without loosing speed flexability. Now look at Stingley even coming out of HS. At the opening which is run like the NFL combine, he was 6'1 at 193, ran a 4.3 laser timed 40, vertical jump of 42 inch. Only big difference from the opening is they don't do the bench but do a Powerball throw. Which his was 43 feet second longest at CB.

Now what you do is go and look at the film and focus on games that he is playing against kids that already have NFL size/speed/strength. Most times you will see drop offs for a WR against the top talent(Georgia/LSU/OSU). With Smith he didnt do just good against these other kids he took them outback to the woodshed. To me if Smith played against lower levels (MAC) or dominated the bottom of the SEC then was just OK vs the NFL talent then the my concern about handling the NFL man would be much higher. As of now I see his weight I worry but then I watch film and say well he is just such a great football player.
I think where we disagree is here: I believe the NFL defenders are leaps and bounds more powerful and challenging than any defenders in college. You seem to disagree and assume that ability to beat boys at the collegiate level is a 1 to 1 equating of how it will be to beat NFL CB's.

There is a lot of data on small receivers struggling when they reach the NFL. We can debate on why that is, but let's at least agree that the data is fairly clear. Bigger stronger guys tend to do better. That's why Chase Claypool and Tee Higgins were not as dominant in college, and Henry Ruggs III was selected first of the WR's in last year's class. But one year into their NFL careers, those bigger stronger guys had a rather seamless adjustment, while Ruggs is still fending off critics calling him a bust.

If you watch the press man CB's when they enter the NFL, it takes them a while (usually 1 year or so) to adjust, because the game is a lot more physical and complex. This is one of the reasons why I'm not calling Igbinoghene a bust yet, despite grading out as the worst CB in the NFL last year by at least one source. Those struggles are real. The amount of improvement the CB needs to make--including physically--is immense. We had elite talents at CB like Tankersley who simply couldn't make the transition. The same thing exists on the WR side of that matchup.

Can a WR beat press man without physicality? Absolutely, yes. But the question is not CAN he ... it is HOW OFTEN WILL he? If Smith can beat press man 90% of the time, I don't care one bit how he does it. But if he beats the press 70% of the time, then he's simply not worth the #3 overall pick, because he can't be relied upon enough to be a #1 WR. The reality probably lies somewhere in between the 70% and 90% number ... but exactly where it is will determine whether Smith becomes an All-Pro or a roster bubble guy. We've taken fliers on high draft pick castoffs before, like Taco Charlton and Shaq Lawson recently. They didn't work out. Just being a top prospect doesn't guarantee you'll become a good pro. I think Devonta Smith has all the things he needs to succeed except the muscle mass. The whole question is when he gains that muscle mass, how often will he succeed?

There's room for reasonable minds to disagree. For Smith's sake, I hope you're right. And if anyone we draft ever looks like Smith did against college kids, we've got an HoF'er on our hands. :)
 
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