We now control our own destiny for the #1 pick

[Kdawg954]

Agreed! But you listed those 6 Qbs as no brainer selections. Give me a break with that non-sense.
What about all the other Qbs selected in each of those drafts beyond #10. Where are they?

What you conviently left out is there are a lot more QBs draft after #10 that are bust, no longer in the league vs. those 6 that have been special.

It's not that easy to find them. However the one area where Miami has erred is not selecting a QB every year no matter whos your starter.
Every team should have a philosophy of we're draftin a QB every year.

Like it or not, 16 of the last 20 Super Bowls were won by guys drafted pick #10 and beyond and the top 6 QBs right now were pick 10 and beyond.

If they were “no brainer” they would go #1 overall, nobody is saying that.

Yea it ain’t easy to find them, but they are there and in some circumstances right in our face.

 

[Rowdy1972]

And half the Super Bowl wins over the last 20 years the QB was selected in round 3 or later.

Take away the “Manning” factor, no other QB won a Super Bowl the last 20 years taken #1 overall.

I am in no way saying #1 overall is a detriment, I am just saying people putting it on a pedastal like that is the key to solving the ineptitude of this franchise of the last 20 years are being short sighted.

Trading for Josh Rosen was the actual first real GM savvy move this team has made at the QB position since drafting Marino 35+ years ago. It may not work out in the end but there is some actual foresight being shown.

Team first and foremost needs to try to develop players and continue improving. If the end result is #1 overall then so be it but this doom and gloom of setting us back a decade is ridiculous. Team has had plenty of chances to pick a proper QB and turn the other way in favor of guys like Fiedler, Feeley, Frerotte, Culpepper, Beck, Henne and Tannehill.

Any other draft most people don't care. Hell I wouldnt care. But when you got a clear cut number one QB prospect,that first overall pick becomes highly sought after. This isnt any ole draft. Its not Goff and Wentz coming out or even Mariota/Winston. This is like Luck coming out. Smart people know where the goods are in this draft. Its not the 2nd or 3rd best QB. Its coming out of Alabama and is left handed. The type of QB that has the potential to change this franchise over night.

 

[Kdawg954]

And a large chunk of those Super Bowl wins were by a 6th round pick which doesn't actually mean anything at all so don't use that as some basis of argument. That's why you don't cherry pick.

The thing is, the EASIEST way to land the QB is to get the #1 pick and take Tua. That's what people are rooting for. If that doesn't work out, it gets harder, but not impossible. We just need to keep swinging for the fences, like we're doing now, instead of bunting to get on base like we have been doing for the past 20 years at the QB position.

Yea he has won 6, #1 overall Mannings won 4 . . . the other 10? Pick #15 overall or later. Its nots really cherry picking.

I agree it is the easiest way, not because of Tua, because you have your pick of the litter . . . Still have to make the correct decision.

But they have to develop other key areas of this team or it just wont matter.

 

[Ryan1973]

Any other draft most people don't care. Hell I wouldnt care. But when you got a clear cut number one QB prospect,that first overall pick becomes highly sought after. This isnt any ole draft. Its not Goff and Wentz coming out or even Mariota/Winston. This is like Luck coming out. Smart people know where the goods are in this draft. Its not the 2nd or 3rd best QB. Its coming out of Alabama and is left handed. The type of QB that has the potential to change this franchise over night.

You hit the nail on the head. I see a big dropoff from Tua to the next QB prospect like Fromm, Herbert, or Love.

 

[Kdawg954]

Any other draft most people don't care. Hell I wouldnt care. But when you got a clear cut number one QB prospect,that first overall pick becomes highly sought after. This isnt any ole draft. Its not Goff and Wentz coming out or even Mariota/Winston. This is like Luck coming out. Smart people know where the goods are in this draft. Its not the 2nd or 3rd best QB. Its coming out of Alabama and is left handed. The type of QB that has the potential to change this franchise over night.

What does coming out of Alabama have to do with anything? They QBU or something?

As great of a prospect as Luck was, he is a great example of why you better have a sound plan in other areas or it just wont matter, and with Tua being a bit undersized you put him behind an incompetent line you can damage him and not get the most out of his potential.

It is gonna take a lot more than Tua to change this franchise “overnight”, even if he would be a big piece in the process of it all.

 

[Kdawg954]

You hit the nail on the head. I see a big dropoff from Tua to the next QB prospect like Fromm, Herbert, or Love.

He is the clear top QB prospect

 

[Kamelion4291]

Yea he has won 6, #1 overall Mannings won 4 . . . the other 10? Pick #15 overall or later. Its nots really cherry picking.

I agree it is the easiest way, not because of Tua, because you have your pick of the litter . . . Still have to make the correct decision.

But they have to develop other key areas of this team or it just wont matter.

You're arguing that more QBs are found in picks 11 to 214 (and undrafted free agents) than 1 to 10 which is true, but also completely obvious. You're talking about a pool of players within all teams, selecting the top QBs, and of course they're probably going to lie in that 11 to 214 range because that accounts for 96% of all draft picks.

But what you should really be looking at is the percentage of time that a top 10 QB pick works out compared to a QB at any other draft position and it's really no contest. There's a reason why these guys are taken high in the draft.

To have a #3 pick work out like a #1 pick in a draft where the #1 guy is head and shoulders above everybody else would require you to get lucky, and fans don't want to get put into a position where they have to rely on luck.

 

[fansinceGWilson]

I'm going to add to your point in clarify my point. I think the overall first pick is necessary because if we don't need a quarterback or like another quarterback we can trade back for a motherload. If we win 3 meaningless games that could cost us 4 plus draft picks this year or next.
This team is screwed the pooch in more ways than I can mention over the years and I just want them to have all the tools in the chest to do what they feel they need to do. Having the first pick he's going to fill up that tool chest and leave us many options on the table whether it's Tua or not.

JMHO, . . . if Miami has #1 pick, it's because Rosen sucks (among other things). If Miami picks, say, 4 or 5, Miami won't be drafting a R1 QB anyway.

 

[Kamelion4291]

What does coming out of Alabama have to do with anything? They QBU or something?

As great of a prospect as Luck was, he is a great example of why you better have a sound plan in other areas or it just wont matter, and with Tua being a bit undersized you put him behind an incompetent line you can damage him and not get the most out of his potential.

It is gonna take a lot more than Tua to change this franchise “overnight”, even if he would be a big piece in the process of it all.

Tua and multiple, good run blocking centric offensive lineman from both the draft and free agency would catapult this offense into the top half "overnight". Defense would still be a work in progress, but you'd immediately have the ability to actually score points and keep the other team off the field. If you're able to build up the defensive line too, you'd then have a team that could compete in every game.

 

[Rowdy1972]

What does coming out of Alabama have to do with anything? They QBU or something?

As great of a prospect as Luck was, he is a great example of why you better have a sound plan in other areas or it just wont matter, and with Tua being a bit undersized you put him behind an incompetent line you can damage him and not get the most out of his potential.

It is gonna take a lot more than Tua to change this franchise “overnight”, even if he would be a big piece in the process of it all.

Him coming out of Alabama has nothing to do with it. I was just saying where he was coming from. To identify him.

The colts went to the playoffs the first year with him. They went to an AFC championship game. They made the playoffs more times than not with him. I will take my chances with that than trying to build around a QB that hasnt won anywhere hes been after high school.

We do have a plan in place. Will it work? I have no clue but you go down taking the best QB prospect at this point. You got to shoot for that first pick now. What do we have to lose at this point? I dont want to go through this season to build around a QB that was apart of this shitty season.

Do you think Rosen feels warm and fuzzy here? Do you think he feels like the FO has confidence in him? Hell Id be pissed off as hell if I was him. Burnt bridges.

 

[Kamelion4291]

JMHO, . . . if Miami has #1 pick, it's because Rosen sucks (among other things). If Miami picks, say, 4 or 5, Miami won't be drafting a R1 QB anyway.

I'd probably take Burrow at this point if that's actually where I was drafting.

 

[Kdawg954]

I think you have a fundamental misunderstanding of statistics. You're arguing that more QBs are found in picks 11 to 214 than

You're arguing that more QBs are found in picks 11 to 214 (and undrafted free agents) than 1 to 10 which is true, but also completely obvious. You're talking about a pool of players within all teams, selecting the top QBs, and of course they're probably going to lie in that 11 to 214 range because that accounts for 96% of all draft picks.

But what you should really be looking at is the percentage of time that a top 10 QB pick works out compared to a QB at any other draft position and it's really no contest. There's a reason why these guys are taken high in the draft.

To have a #3 pick work out like a #1 pick in a draft where the #1 guy is head and shoulders above everybody else would require you to get lucky, and fans don't want to get put into a position where they have to rely on luck.

No, I totally understand the highest percentage of success for scoring a franchise QB is with a team that has the #1 overall.

What I am also saying is having the #1 overall pick only once in the last 20 years is not the reason why we have been irrelevant.

People seem intent on believing that not getting the #1 overall pick is a decade altering thing and that is a bunch of bs folklore.

Team has been a position to have a franchise QB at least 10 times in the last 20 years. Hell the purest passer of all time was drafted by us in the 20s.

Develop, build up assets and draft well and you will be surprised how much easier it would be to find that franchise guy. Just throwing Tua on the 2019 Dolphins doesn't change much of anything.

 

[Kamelion4291]

No, I totally understand the highest percentage of success for scoring a franchise QB is with a team that has the #1 overall.

What I am also saying is having the #1 overall pick only once in the last 20 years is not the reason why we have been irrelevant.

People seem intent on believing that not getting the #1 overall pick is a decade altering thing and that is a bunch of bs folklore.

Team has been a position to have a franchise QB at least 10 times in the last 20 years. Hell the purest passer of all time was drafted by us in the 20s.

Develop, build up assets and draft well and you will be surprised how much easier it would be to find that franchise guy. Just throwing Tua on the 2019 Dolphins doesn't change much of anything.

I 100% agree with everything but the last sentence. It will change a lot assuming we don't just then set fire to our other picks and money by picking busts. The 2019 Dolphins only exist because of the desire to get a Tua. Next year's team will look a lot different than this year's team.

And if the rest of the picks and money are wasted, everybody gets fired anyway and the new group comes in already having a QB. Just having Tua, assuming he is what most people think he is, would attract all of the best talent evaluators and coaches because that's the hardest piece to find.

 

[Kdawg954]

Tua and multiple, good run blocking centric offensive lineman from both the draft and free agency would catapult this offense into the top half "overnight". Defense would still be a work in progress, but you'd immediately have the ability to actually score points and keep the other team off the field. If you're able to build up the defensive line too, you'd then have a team that could compete in every game.

Hell have you watched our skill guys the last 2 games? I’d argue we left at least 20 points on the board in the first half the last 2 games just off drops, fumbles and missed FGs, and thats without a run game.

If we get #1 overall, thats fine, but 4 games in my goal is not to actively root for being the worst team in the NFL. That can happen organically, Im about seeing what the current option can get accomplished.

 

[Kdawg954]

I 100% agree with everything but the last sentence. It will change a lot assuming we don't just then set fire to our other picks and money by picking busts. The 2019 Dolphins only exist because of the desire to get a Tua. Next year's team will look a lot different than this year's team.

And if the rest of the picks and money are wasted, everybody gets fired anyway and the new group comes in already having a QB. Just having Tua, assuming he is what most people think he is, would attract all of the best talent evaluators and coaches because that's the hardest piece to find.

If you agree with all that, then Josh Rosen squeezing 4 or 5 wins, nixing Tua out, and building up the assets around him doesn’t seem like that bad of a decision, and if he falls flat in 2020 Im pretty sure there will be another cant miss guy in 2021 everybody will be screaming about and we can shoot our shot with a potential new regime and a QB can come into a proper scenario.

Just saying it doesn’t all ride on the #1 pick. We can be just as optimistic with vast improvement from the start of 2019 to the end.