Assumptions, smoke screens, skullduggery, and nincompoopery are common this time of year. It’s the draft baby!
1st Assumption: A super talented QB with durability questions long term is someone that everyone is going to trade the farm for to jump in front of us to pick.
Not certain about that. I think that it’s possible that Herbert And Love without trading up and spending valuable draft resources/capital are better options for most teams, (including us) than trading up for Tua. Or, I’m cool with drafting Tua, if he falls to us without having to trade for him if the coaching staff thinks he’s the best available player/QB.
How many teams are a threat to trade in front of us, or take a QB before us?
Washington Redskins. Doesn’t make sense to give up on Dwayne Haskins yet. Their best option is to draft highest rated prospect on their board, which is probably Chase Young, and ride with Haskins for a full year at the helm. Either Haskins will show progress and instill confidence that he could be the guy, our he will implode, and the redskins will be in position to draft a QB 1 next year when Trevor Lawrence and others are coming out. % they draft a QB? Far more unlikely than likely. %chance someone trades for their pick to jump in front of them? Also low, the Lions and Giants picks can be had for a cheaper price, no need to jump in front of the Lions.
Lions. Management is under the gun to win immediately. Their best chance of winning is for Matthew Stanford to come back and for them to set him up with players who can help them win now. They need to either trade back and acquire more picks, or draft the best player available on their board who can help them win now Or they may be unemployed next year, and that stands for both Patricia and their GM.
New York Giants. Daniel Jones is their guy. They don’t need to draft a QB, they have many other holes they have to address here. They will either trade down, or draft the BPA.
So, who does that leave who is a threat to trade ahead of us?
San Diego Chargers. They draft behind us. They could trade up to 3 or 4 if they feel that strongly about Herbert. Doubt they would trade that far up for Tua who has the Durability risk when they can stay put and draft either Tua, Herbert, or Love (Whoever’s left) without trading any draft capital. This is because of an analysis of the following teams who need QB’s potentially badly enough to trade up:
Carolina Panthers. A possibility, but based on what I’ve heard, it is more likely that they roll with Cam Newton this year. Seems like they may be confident in him coming back from his injuries. Now, this could change, but there is a very realistic chance they stay put and draft one of the top QB prospects if they fall to them, or they could draft an incredible player if Bengals, Dolphins, & Chargers all draft QB’s in front of them, then they are left with a very impressive group of talented non QB Players. I believe they will roll with Cam next year And maybe draft a QB later, or sign a Free agent like Teddy Bridgewater or someone else to back up Cam Newton. Besides, at this point it is highly likely that either Love or Tua will be available, so someone can either trade up here or select one of them whoever is available without spending the draft capital to trade in front of us, including the Panthers.
Jaguars. A young prospect will come in handy, but with Foles contract and Minshew in the fold, I doubt it makes sense for them to pay the price it will take to move up ahead of the Dolphins to draft Herbert, or a Durability risk QB, or Jordan Love. I think they have to go one more year with Foles/Minshew and deal with a new QB later in the draft or next year.
Raiders. At this point the cost starts to get prohibitive to jump from 12 to 3 or 4, I.e. in front of us, and the Raiders still have Carr, not sure how they feel about him, they could trade him, not sure what they would get for him, they could go after Tom Brady, or another veteran to compete with Carr, Gruden historically doesn’t like rookie QB’s. but you never know.
Colts. They are built to win now. They will likely go Free agent route with Philip Rivers looking like a solid fit there, possibly even Brady. Unlikely to trade up for a rookie QB and pay the price that it would take from the 13th pick, but you never know.
Broncos. They are desperate for a QB. Elway has failed so much with his rookie QB’s I believe he would rather go the free agent route, but you never know if there is a prospect that he feels so strongly about that he would mortgage the next 2 drafts to move up from 15 to 3 (in front of us is all I’m concerned with) to draft.
Again, this is just analysis based on what information is out there, not pretending to know anything or have inside knowledge, just looking at each team’s situation and applying logic that seems reasonable to me. But, the draft is unpredictable, so we’ll see how it shakes out, but I don’t think we need to trade valuable assets that we traded good players for to get one of the top 4 QB prospects in this draft, and I think Tua still is promising but risky and unnecessary to trade valuable draft assets to select if we want him, and Herbert and Love might be more highly regarded amongst the teams picking than the rest of us think and that Tua’s durability risk makes is less likely that a team will trade too much for him, but you never know.
