ckparrothead
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Disclaimer: This is a weekly report written for a website unaffiliated with FinHeaven.
Miami Dolphins
by Chris Kouffman
They all hurt, every single one of them, no matter how vividly one sees them coming. I am speaking of losses, of course. The Dolphins moved down to 3-5 this weekend, tied for 2nd place in the division with the Buffalo Bills. Yours truly moved up to 7-1, in terms of predicting the outcomes of Dolphin games, but that hardly lessens the sting of losing a game that appeared to be within reach right up until the very end.
And, what a predictable yet stinging ending it was; the game was tossed away by an errant Gus Frerotte throw in the Falcons’ red zone just as Miami was threatening to tie the game with two minutes left.
Some of you may recall my stinging criticisms of Gus Frerotte over the last few weeks, but I believe it is now time to shift focus from the broken puppet doing what he was born to do, to the misguided puppeteers who continue to let him do it.
No doubt that Gus Frerotte is what he is, which is to say a below-average starting quarterback long on experience and short on accuracy. The best the Dolphins can hope for in Frerotte is a good game manager with above average pocket awareness and a cannon mounted on his shoulders capable of firing off impressive (but often errant) passes in the deep quarters of the field, but who turns the ball over when things get tight in the red zone, and is generally too inaccurate to convert first downs on a regular basis. In that sense, aside from the game management and pocket awareness which are remarkably similar, he is the anti-Fiedler.
Like Fiedler, Frerotte is an admirable backup quarterback, capable of coming in for short stints and leading a team to a winning short-term record while it scrambles to get its star quarterback healthy again. Like Fiedler, he falls woefully short of championship caliber as a season-long starter.
The Dolphins have a powder puff schedule for the balance of the season. At least, it would be considered a powder puff schedule to a team that was 5-3 rather than 3-5. They host the Jets (2-6) and Bills (3-5) at Dolphins Stadium, they play away games against the Raiders (3-5) and Browns (3-5), host the Tennessee Titans (2-7), travel for a game against the San Diego Chargers (5-4), and play two games against the New England Patriots (5-3 or 4-4).
Even with Gus Frerotte as a starter, the Dolphins could end up 8-8 this season easily, provided they manage to either beat Oakland on the road or prevent a sweep from division rival New England. The Browns are extremely beatable, and the Jets, Bills, and Titans play the Dolphins in Miami. Right now my prediction has the Dolphins splitting games with the Patriots, and beating the Raiders in Oakland, to end the season 9-7 with a 3-3 division record that knocks them out of the division title in favor of the 9-7 Patriots, who will have a 4-2 division record.
Most feel the need to assign blame for a close loss. The defense, weighed down by an unimpressive secondary, clearly allowed the Falcons to convert too many third downs, which contributed to the poor time of possession ratio. But, not enough attention has been given to the defense’s poor execution on first down as well. As Craig Barnes of the South Florida Sun Sentinel astutely pointed out, the Dolphins allowed the Falcons to gain 5 yards or more on 14 of 33 first downs. Michael Vick was allowed to complete passes and drive his team at will, getting into third-and-short situations that play directly into Vick’s dual-threat nature. Even so, the Dolphins allowed only 17 points out of the Falcons, and had mixed success in situations when they absolutely needed to make a stand. With the Falcons near their own goal line, the Dolphins forced a key three-and-out that gave the offense great field position to march down for a potential game-tying touchdown. With a chance to repeat the same feat in time for the two minute warning after the Dolphins’ costly interception, the defense lost sight of Warrick Dunn on third down and allowed him to convert the first down that effectively ended the game.
The offensive line once again managed to shake Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown loose for good yardage, while keeping Frerotte’s jersey fresh and clean. The RnR brothers combined for 119 yards on 22 carries and 1 touchdown. The receivers were getting open against a Falcons secondary that Chris Chambers would later accidentally let slip reminded him of “High School†coverage. The offense’s ineptitude, and its 0-for-9 third down conversion results, can once again be blamed on quarterback Gus Frerotte, with some leftover blame for Scott Linehan and Nick Saban. Frerotte failed to connect on a number of intermediate passes that could have converted first downs or touchdowns. He also had the most costly mistake of the game when he threw an interception at the goal line on 3rd and 2 from the 8 yard line with 2:47 left to play as the Dolphins drove down the field for a potential game-tying touchdown.
Linehan was responsible for his share of the offense’s problems. He called two wide receiver reverses despite the fact that the Falcons had not shown a tendency to over-pursue Dolphins running backs or quarterbacks. Each reverse ended in negative yardage. Additionally, on third and medium range, Linehan typically resorted to the shotgun formation, whose success is predicated on a quarterback’s decision-making and accuracy. Frerotte, who often falls short on decision-making and never pretended to have much accuracy, typically left those third down passes incomplete. Linehan’s most costly mistake came on the game-clinching play itself. The Dolphins historically had passed out of the “Hippo†formation (Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams in the same backfield) approximately 70 percent of the time since Ricky’s return. Any defensive coordinator with a brain could figure out that the formation presents most of its dangers in the passing game, since Ronnie Brown is not as effective a lead blocker as a fullback or tight end. On 3rd and 2 from the 8 yard line, with 2:47 left to play in regulation, the Dolphins called a play-action pass out of the “Hippo†formation. Later, Keion Carpenter, recipient of the errant throw, would admit that the entire defense knew that Ricky and Ronnie in the same backfield meant the play was likely to be a pass. Linehan had absolutely no excuse to be throwing a play-action pass out of that formation, since nobody was likely to buy the fake. Aside from the most commonly cited arguments, that Ricky and Ronnie had been running wild all day against the Falcons and Gus Frerotte tends to turn the ball over in the red zone, had the Dolphins scored a touchdown on the play they would have been facing a time dilemma: as in too much of it. A quick scoring strike on 3rd and 2 with 2:47 left in the game would have meant dangerous return man Allen Rossum fielding a kick return, with Mike Vick able to leisurely stroll his way through no-huddle territory for the necessary 30 to 50 yards (depending on the kick return) needed to attempt a game-winning field goal. Throughout his career, Mike Vick has been as dangerous as Tom Brady and the Patriots on similar drives, and he had been having his way with Miami’s defense all day. No matter how you put it, Linehan should never have called that play, and Nick Saban should have immediately overruled it.
Now, Dolphin fans are faced with a situation with which they are relatively familiar. It has become obvious that the team’s starting quarterback is not good enough to win games against good teams, but the coach is too reluctant to interfere with team chemistry to make a change. Nick Saban is certainly different from Dave Wannstedt in many key ways, but in this regard they are similarly conservative. With eight games left to play, Nick Saban appears resigned to an 8-8 or 9-7 season, much like Dave Wannstedt appeared resigned to a 10-6 season with two games left to play in 2003, after the Dolphins had been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. Dave Wannstedt refused to put inexperienced players in the game to see what they had to offer then, and Nick Saban appears willing to stick with the foul smelling object that is familiar to him, rather than the funny looking one that is not.
Saban is also afraid of the slippery slope that goes with making quarterback changes. He rightly recognizes that if they switch to Rosenfels, they likely would not be able to switch back to Gus should Sage fall flat on his face. In that way, he will not want to make a switch until the team has a decent backup plan (e.g. Cleo Lemon gets up to speed on the offense). Additionally, Saban lured a lot of feisty veterans onto the team and captured their attention with his promises that this would not be a “rebuilding†season. Until Gus Frerotte has completely lost the locker room, veterans might interpret a switch to mean that Saban is no longer committed to winning this year. Saban cannot afford to alienate those veterans, so he will wait until they are completely on board to make a move.
With a game looming against the Patriots this week, the Dolphins will need to remove the yoke from the necks of Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown to have a shot at emerging victorious. Nick Saban will need to manufacture a formidable game-plan to neutralize the strategies of his best friend Bill Belichick.
For the record, I refuse to go on record with a decision on the outcome of the game itself. My prediction centers around the theory that whichever of the two coaches loses the first game, will come back and beat the other in the second game. That, to me, is the nature of the relationship between Bill Belichick and Nick Saban. If the Dolphins win, expect a cold defeat in Foxboro. If the Patriots win, expect the Dolphins to follow up with an upset victory in the Patriots’ stadium.
Miami Dolphins
by Chris Kouffman
They all hurt, every single one of them, no matter how vividly one sees them coming. I am speaking of losses, of course. The Dolphins moved down to 3-5 this weekend, tied for 2nd place in the division with the Buffalo Bills. Yours truly moved up to 7-1, in terms of predicting the outcomes of Dolphin games, but that hardly lessens the sting of losing a game that appeared to be within reach right up until the very end.
And, what a predictable yet stinging ending it was; the game was tossed away by an errant Gus Frerotte throw in the Falcons’ red zone just as Miami was threatening to tie the game with two minutes left.
Some of you may recall my stinging criticisms of Gus Frerotte over the last few weeks, but I believe it is now time to shift focus from the broken puppet doing what he was born to do, to the misguided puppeteers who continue to let him do it.
No doubt that Gus Frerotte is what he is, which is to say a below-average starting quarterback long on experience and short on accuracy. The best the Dolphins can hope for in Frerotte is a good game manager with above average pocket awareness and a cannon mounted on his shoulders capable of firing off impressive (but often errant) passes in the deep quarters of the field, but who turns the ball over when things get tight in the red zone, and is generally too inaccurate to convert first downs on a regular basis. In that sense, aside from the game management and pocket awareness which are remarkably similar, he is the anti-Fiedler.
Like Fiedler, Frerotte is an admirable backup quarterback, capable of coming in for short stints and leading a team to a winning short-term record while it scrambles to get its star quarterback healthy again. Like Fiedler, he falls woefully short of championship caliber as a season-long starter.
The Dolphins have a powder puff schedule for the balance of the season. At least, it would be considered a powder puff schedule to a team that was 5-3 rather than 3-5. They host the Jets (2-6) and Bills (3-5) at Dolphins Stadium, they play away games against the Raiders (3-5) and Browns (3-5), host the Tennessee Titans (2-7), travel for a game against the San Diego Chargers (5-4), and play two games against the New England Patriots (5-3 or 4-4).
Even with Gus Frerotte as a starter, the Dolphins could end up 8-8 this season easily, provided they manage to either beat Oakland on the road or prevent a sweep from division rival New England. The Browns are extremely beatable, and the Jets, Bills, and Titans play the Dolphins in Miami. Right now my prediction has the Dolphins splitting games with the Patriots, and beating the Raiders in Oakland, to end the season 9-7 with a 3-3 division record that knocks them out of the division title in favor of the 9-7 Patriots, who will have a 4-2 division record.
Most feel the need to assign blame for a close loss. The defense, weighed down by an unimpressive secondary, clearly allowed the Falcons to convert too many third downs, which contributed to the poor time of possession ratio. But, not enough attention has been given to the defense’s poor execution on first down as well. As Craig Barnes of the South Florida Sun Sentinel astutely pointed out, the Dolphins allowed the Falcons to gain 5 yards or more on 14 of 33 first downs. Michael Vick was allowed to complete passes and drive his team at will, getting into third-and-short situations that play directly into Vick’s dual-threat nature. Even so, the Dolphins allowed only 17 points out of the Falcons, and had mixed success in situations when they absolutely needed to make a stand. With the Falcons near their own goal line, the Dolphins forced a key three-and-out that gave the offense great field position to march down for a potential game-tying touchdown. With a chance to repeat the same feat in time for the two minute warning after the Dolphins’ costly interception, the defense lost sight of Warrick Dunn on third down and allowed him to convert the first down that effectively ended the game.
The offensive line once again managed to shake Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown loose for good yardage, while keeping Frerotte’s jersey fresh and clean. The RnR brothers combined for 119 yards on 22 carries and 1 touchdown. The receivers were getting open against a Falcons secondary that Chris Chambers would later accidentally let slip reminded him of “High School†coverage. The offense’s ineptitude, and its 0-for-9 third down conversion results, can once again be blamed on quarterback Gus Frerotte, with some leftover blame for Scott Linehan and Nick Saban. Frerotte failed to connect on a number of intermediate passes that could have converted first downs or touchdowns. He also had the most costly mistake of the game when he threw an interception at the goal line on 3rd and 2 from the 8 yard line with 2:47 left to play as the Dolphins drove down the field for a potential game-tying touchdown.
Linehan was responsible for his share of the offense’s problems. He called two wide receiver reverses despite the fact that the Falcons had not shown a tendency to over-pursue Dolphins running backs or quarterbacks. Each reverse ended in negative yardage. Additionally, on third and medium range, Linehan typically resorted to the shotgun formation, whose success is predicated on a quarterback’s decision-making and accuracy. Frerotte, who often falls short on decision-making and never pretended to have much accuracy, typically left those third down passes incomplete. Linehan’s most costly mistake came on the game-clinching play itself. The Dolphins historically had passed out of the “Hippo†formation (Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams in the same backfield) approximately 70 percent of the time since Ricky’s return. Any defensive coordinator with a brain could figure out that the formation presents most of its dangers in the passing game, since Ronnie Brown is not as effective a lead blocker as a fullback or tight end. On 3rd and 2 from the 8 yard line, with 2:47 left to play in regulation, the Dolphins called a play-action pass out of the “Hippo†formation. Later, Keion Carpenter, recipient of the errant throw, would admit that the entire defense knew that Ricky and Ronnie in the same backfield meant the play was likely to be a pass. Linehan had absolutely no excuse to be throwing a play-action pass out of that formation, since nobody was likely to buy the fake. Aside from the most commonly cited arguments, that Ricky and Ronnie had been running wild all day against the Falcons and Gus Frerotte tends to turn the ball over in the red zone, had the Dolphins scored a touchdown on the play they would have been facing a time dilemma: as in too much of it. A quick scoring strike on 3rd and 2 with 2:47 left in the game would have meant dangerous return man Allen Rossum fielding a kick return, with Mike Vick able to leisurely stroll his way through no-huddle territory for the necessary 30 to 50 yards (depending on the kick return) needed to attempt a game-winning field goal. Throughout his career, Mike Vick has been as dangerous as Tom Brady and the Patriots on similar drives, and he had been having his way with Miami’s defense all day. No matter how you put it, Linehan should never have called that play, and Nick Saban should have immediately overruled it.
Now, Dolphin fans are faced with a situation with which they are relatively familiar. It has become obvious that the team’s starting quarterback is not good enough to win games against good teams, but the coach is too reluctant to interfere with team chemistry to make a change. Nick Saban is certainly different from Dave Wannstedt in many key ways, but in this regard they are similarly conservative. With eight games left to play, Nick Saban appears resigned to an 8-8 or 9-7 season, much like Dave Wannstedt appeared resigned to a 10-6 season with two games left to play in 2003, after the Dolphins had been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. Dave Wannstedt refused to put inexperienced players in the game to see what they had to offer then, and Nick Saban appears willing to stick with the foul smelling object that is familiar to him, rather than the funny looking one that is not.
Saban is also afraid of the slippery slope that goes with making quarterback changes. He rightly recognizes that if they switch to Rosenfels, they likely would not be able to switch back to Gus should Sage fall flat on his face. In that way, he will not want to make a switch until the team has a decent backup plan (e.g. Cleo Lemon gets up to speed on the offense). Additionally, Saban lured a lot of feisty veterans onto the team and captured their attention with his promises that this would not be a “rebuilding†season. Until Gus Frerotte has completely lost the locker room, veterans might interpret a switch to mean that Saban is no longer committed to winning this year. Saban cannot afford to alienate those veterans, so he will wait until they are completely on board to make a move.
With a game looming against the Patriots this week, the Dolphins will need to remove the yoke from the necks of Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown to have a shot at emerging victorious. Nick Saban will need to manufacture a formidable game-plan to neutralize the strategies of his best friend Bill Belichick.
For the record, I refuse to go on record with a decision on the outcome of the game itself. My prediction centers around the theory that whichever of the two coaches loses the first game, will come back and beat the other in the second game. That, to me, is the nature of the relationship between Bill Belichick and Nick Saban. If the Dolphins win, expect a cold defeat in Foxboro. If the Patriots win, expect the Dolphins to follow up with an upset victory in the Patriots’ stadium.
