MrChadRico
Super Donator
AFC Playoff Race After Week 14
1. Kansas City Chiefs (12-1)2. Buffalo Bills (10-3)
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3)
4. Houston Texans (8-5)
5. Baltimore Ravens (8-5)
6. Los Angeles Chargers (8-5)
7. Denver Broncos (8-5)
In The Hunt
8. Indianapolis Colts (6-7)9. Miami Dolphins (6-7)
10. Cincinnati Bengals (5-8)
Let's start with the Bengals, the Bengals will win next week against the Titans. Then they play Browns, who always play the Bengals tough, but if they can get past them, they will have a huge week 17 matchup with Denver. If they can pull that game off too it takes them to 8 wins with a chance to get to 9 by beating the Steelers in week 18.... so the Bengals are pretty much eliminated already, 9 wins simply isn't enough to make the playoffs as we will discover the further we dive into this.
The Colts have the same record as Miami (6-7) but a much smoother road to the playoffs, all they have to do is beat Denver next week and then they finish with Ten, NYG and Jaxsonville, all very winnable games. So it's not crazy to assume they will get at least 9 wins, but if they win this week, they'll probably get to 10.
The Broncos, have a rough stretch to finish the season, they have to play Indy, in what amounts to an elimination game for the Colts. Then they have a brutal 3 game stretch, LAC, CIN & KC. If Denver loses this week to Indy, i expect them to lose to the Chargers as well. I'll give them the CIN game but I have no faith at all they beat KC in week 18..... unless KC is resting their starters and as you can see above, the Chiefs currently hold a 2 game lead on the conference, so it's very possible. So let's say the Broncos go 2-2 taking them to 10-7. 10 wins might be enough.
The Chargers are also 8-5, I predict they will beat the Broncos, I just think they are the better team. The Chargers play Tampa this week, let's say they lose to Tampa bc Baker Mayfield is the GOAT. Then LAC plays trash teams to finish the season, NE & LV. So the Chargers will have 11 wins, 11 wins makes the playoffs, so the Chargers are probably gonna take one of the Wildcard spots for sure.
The Ravens are also 8-5, they will walk to a victory with next week against the NYG, they then play Pittsburg at home, then on the road in Houston. Let's say they go 1-1 in those games... the Ravens then finish with a home game against Clevland, I don't see them losing that game, so the Ravens likley finish with 11 wins. Making the playoffs.
So a quick recap.
-Bengals are likley to get to 9 wins, but a win against Denver makes 10 a real possibility, especially if Pit rests their starters in week 18.
-Chargers are a lock IMO, their schedule is just too easy. - 11 wins gets them in.
-Ravens will get to 10 wins without breaking a sweat. 11 wins is a pretty good guess, so they are in.
That leaves one spot. Let's say Denver collapses and loses 3 of the next 4, only winning in week 18 against the resting Chiefs, taking them to 9 wins. That pretty much eliminates Denver.
If Denver loses to Indy, Indy will likley get to 10 wins and jump Denver for the final spot due to their ridiculously easy schedule. Indy at 10 wins also controls the tie breaker over Miami, due to our head to head loss.
So it's pretty obvious the Dolphins are completely eliminated with another loss.
We have a rough schedule, especially for a soft ass team like ours. We finish the season in two freezing cold cities, NY and Cleveland. But those are technically the "easy" games left on the schedule, as we have to play Houston 8-5 on the road and then play the always dangerous 49ers..... and remember to make the playoffs we need to win all of these games and we need Indy to not get to 10 wins.
The media is saying we have a 27.9% chance of making the playoffs and I only have one question for them.... what in the **** are they smoking?
