What are the Realistic Odds of Making the Playoffs? | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

What are the Realistic Odds of Making the Playoffs?

MrChadRico

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AFC Playoff Race After Week 14​

1. Kansas City Chiefs (12-1)
2. Buffalo Bills (10-3)
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3)
4. Houston Texans (8-5)
5. Baltimore Ravens (8-5)
6. Los Angeles Chargers (8-5)
7. Denver Broncos (8-5)

In The Hunt​

8. Indianapolis Colts (6-7)
9. Miami Dolphins (6-7)
10. Cincinnati Bengals (5-8)

Let's start with the Bengals, the Bengals will win next week against the Titans. Then they play Browns, who always play the Bengals tough, but if they can get past them, they will have a huge week 17 matchup with Denver. If they can pull that game off too it takes them to 8 wins with a chance to get to 9 by beating the Steelers in week 18.... so the Bengals are pretty much eliminated already, 9 wins simply isn't enough to make the playoffs as we will discover the further we dive into this.

The Colts have the same record as Miami (6-7) but a much smoother road to the playoffs, all they have to do is beat Denver next week and then they finish with Ten, NYG and Jaxsonville, all very winnable games. So it's not crazy to assume they will get at least 9 wins, but if they win this week, they'll probably get to 10.

The Broncos, have a rough stretch to finish the season, they have to play Indy, in what amounts to an elimination game for the Colts. Then they have a brutal 3 game stretch, LAC, CIN & KC. If Denver loses this week to Indy, i expect them to lose to the Chargers as well. I'll give them the CIN game but I have no faith at all they beat KC in week 18..... unless KC is resting their starters and as you can see above, the Chiefs currently hold a 2 game lead on the conference, so it's very possible. So let's say the Broncos go 2-2 taking them to 10-7. 10 wins might be enough.

The Chargers are also 8-5, I predict they will beat the Broncos, I just think they are the better team. The Chargers play Tampa this week, let's say they lose to Tampa bc Baker Mayfield is the GOAT. Then LAC plays trash teams to finish the season, NE & LV. So the Chargers will have 11 wins, 11 wins makes the playoffs, so the Chargers are probably gonna take one of the Wildcard spots for sure.

The Ravens are also 8-5, they will walk to a victory with next week against the NYG, they then play Pittsburg at home, then on the road in Houston. Let's say they go 1-1 in those games... the Ravens then finish with a home game against Clevland, I don't see them losing that game, so the Ravens likley finish with 11 wins. Making the playoffs.

So a quick recap.

-Bengals are likley to get to 9 wins, but a win against Denver makes 10 a real possibility, especially if Pit rests their starters in week 18.

-Chargers are a lock IMO, their schedule is just too easy. - 11 wins gets them in.

-Ravens will get to 10 wins without breaking a sweat. 11 wins is a pretty good guess, so they are in.

That leaves one spot. Let's say Denver collapses and loses 3 of the next 4, only winning in week 18 against the resting Chiefs, taking them to 9 wins. That pretty much eliminates Denver.

If Denver loses to Indy, Indy will likley get to 10 wins and jump Denver for the final spot due to their ridiculously easy schedule. Indy at 10 wins also controls the tie breaker over Miami, due to our head to head loss.

So it's pretty obvious the Dolphins are completely eliminated with another loss.

We have a rough schedule, especially for a soft ass team like ours. We finish the season in two freezing cold cities, NY and Cleveland. But those are technically the "easy" games left on the schedule, as we have to play Houston 8-5 on the road and then play the always dangerous 49ers..... and remember to make the playoffs we need to win all of these games and we need Indy to not get to 10 wins.

The media is saying we have a 27.9% chance of making the playoffs and I only have one question for them.... what in the **** are they smoking?

Cant See Cheech Marin GIF
 
We have to run the table and finish at 10-7. It might be possible to get in at 9-8 but it would require too much unrealistic help.

First thing first, we have to beat the Texans next week to get to 7-7.

Whatever happens in the Colts Broncos game will determine what we need to root for going forward.

If the Colts win then we want the Colts to win out and get to 10-7 and hope the Texans finish no better than 9-8 which would be possible considering if we beat them they will be 8-6 and they finish the season with the Chiefs, Ravens and Titans who already beat them.

If the Broncos win then we would need the Broncos to lose 2 more games which would be possible considering they finish the season with the Bengals, Chargers and Chiefs who might need to win that game to clinch the number 1 seed.

It would also help if the Bucs beat the Chargers this weekend as it would give us more paths to get in just in case the Broncos beat the Chargers when they play each other.

Here is how think it will play out for the AFC playoffs

1. Chiefs 15-2

2. Bills 13-4

3. Steelers 12-5

4. Colts 10-7

5. Ravens 12-5

6. Chargers 12-5

7. Dolphins 10-7
 

AFC Playoff Race After Week 14​

1. Kansas City Chiefs (12-1)
2. Buffalo Bills (10-3)
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3)
4. Houston Texans (8-5)
5. Baltimore Ravens (8-5)
6. Los Angeles Chargers (8-5)
7. Denver Broncos (8-5)

In The Hunt​

8. Indianapolis Colts (6-7)
9. Miami Dolphins (6-7)
10. Cincinnati Bengals (5-8)

Let's start with the Bengals, the Bengals will win next week against the Titans. Then they play Browns, who always play the Bengals tough, but if they can get past them, they will have a huge week 17 matchup with Denver. If they can pull that game off too it takes them to 8 wins with a chance to get to 9 by beating the Steelers in week 18.... so the Bengals are pretty much eliminated already, 9 wins simply isn't enough to make the playoffs as we will discover the further we dive into this.

The Colts have the same record as Miami (6-7) but a much smoother road to the playoffs, all they have to do is beat Denver next week and then they finish with Ten, NYG and Jaxsonville, all very winnable games. So it's not crazy to assume they will get at least 9 wins, but if they win this week, they'll probably get to 10.

The Broncos, have a rough stretch to finish the season, they have to play Indy, in what amounts to an elimination game for the Colts. Then they have a brutal 3 game stretch, LAC, CIN & KC. If Denver loses this week to Indy, i expect them to lose to the Chargers as well. I'll give them the CIN game but I have no faith at all they beat KC in week 18..... unless KC is resting their starters and as you can see above, the Chiefs currently hold a 2 game lead on the conference, so it's very possible. So let's say the Broncos go 2-2 taking them to 10-7. 10 wins might be enough.

The Chargers are also 8-5, I predict they will beat the Broncos, I just think they are the better team. The Chargers play Tampa this week, let's say they lose to Tampa bc Baker Mayfield is the GOAT. Then LAC plays trash teams to finish the season, NE & LV. So the Chargers will have 11 wins, 11 wins makes the playoffs, so the Chargers are probably gonna take one of the Wildcard spots for sure.

The Ravens are also 8-5, they will walk to a victory with next week against the NYG, they then play Pittsburg at home, then on the road in Houston. Let's say they go 1-1 in those games... the Ravens then finish with a home game against Clevland, I don't see them losing that game, so the Ravens likley finish with 11 wins. Making the playoffs.

So a quick recap.

-Bengals are likley to get to 9 wins, but a win against Denver makes 10 a real possibility, especially if Pit rests their starters in week 18.

-Chargers are a lock IMO, their schedule is just too easy. - 11 wins gets them in.

-Ravens will get to 10 wins without breaking a sweat. 11 wins is a pretty good guess, so they are in.

That leaves one spot. Let's say Denver collapses and loses 3 of the next 4, only winning in week 18 against the resting Chiefs, taking them to 9 wins. That pretty much eliminates Denver.

If Denver loses to Indy, Indy will likley get to 10 wins and jump Denver for the final spot due to their ridiculously easy schedule. Indy at 10 wins also controls the tie breaker over Miami, due to our head to head loss.

So it's pretty obvious the Dolphins are completely eliminated with another loss.

We have a rough schedule, especially for a soft ass team like ours. We finish the season in two freezing cold cities, NY and Cleveland. But those are technically the "easy" games left on the schedule, as we have to play Houston 8-5 on the road and then play the always dangerous 49ers..... and remember to make the playoffs we need to win all of these games and we need Indy to not get to 10 wins.

The media is saying we have a 27.9% chance of making the playoffs and I only have one question for them.... what in the **** are they smoking?

Cant See Cheech Marin GIF
Bengals can't get to 10 wins, they have already lost 8. If they win out it helps the Dolphins massively as they will have beaten the Broncos and as you said, you think the Chargers beat the Broncos as well so that's the Broncos 10-7 at best.

You forgot about Houston, they are 8-5 but if they lose to the Dolphins this week they then have to face the Chiefs and Ravens. Lose one of them and they are at 7 losses as well.

If Miami wins out I think they will get in, they would be really unlucky to get to 10 wins and not make it. Personally, I can't see them doing it. No way the offense keeps playing at the level it's at, you just know there will be at least one game were everything falls apart. I've lost all hope in the defense, I wouldn't even count on them forcing 3 punts a game.
 
None
We don’t have the defense or the QB to put us over the top
You need to make a stop eventually, and we are soft
You need a QB to put the team on his back, but as nice of a passer that Tua is, he doesn’t possess that quality.

End of half drive for points.

End of regulation drive to tie.

Win coin toss in OT and drive for the TD victory.

I'll take it!
 
The media is saying we have a 27.9% chance of making the playoffs and I only have one question for them.... what in the **** are they smoking?
God damn. The media is giving us pretty much no chance (which I don't disagree with) and you're still mad! Lol

Edit: Anyways, like I've been saying for weeks. This has been the playoffs for us since November. With this Defense, I don't know about getting past Houston, but hoping for the best!
 
Realistic odds? Zero. We have to land at 10-7 to even have a chance but we haven’t won 4 in a row all year. We also have two maybe three games left that could easily turn into losses the way this defense has been playing.

It’s going to take help from other teams, a big change from what we’ve seen so far this season and some dumb ass luck. Too many things stacked against us unless there is divine intervention.
 
They are more likely to go 0-4 over making the playoffs. They finish with two cold weather games at the Browns and Jets and we all know they suck in cold weather.
Did you mention the cold weather?
 
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