What history shows Dolphins could get with slight trade down. And potential options | Page 9 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

What history shows Dolphins could get with slight trade down. And potential options

TrinidadDolfan

1st Team All-Pro
Club Member
Joined
Mar 13, 2006
Messages
2,011
Reaction score
2,006
Location
Trinidad
Fins in a good spot.

Regardless of what the Jets do, there really are 3 top QBs in this draft.... like the WR group, there is a drop-off after #3 (Wilson).
The Combine will boost the QB stock as it does every year. Teams will fall in love with a QB.

In the 2020 draft, Detroit desperately wanted us to trade up a spot. We held firm and they blinked. We did have leverage then since either Tua or Herbert would be there at #5. Logical that we wanted Tua, but would have been fine with Herbert.

In 2021, things are a bit different. Falcons are really poised to (likely) take Wilson at #4. Now, Detroit/Carolina/Denver (7/8/9) > One of these teams are likely in on Wilson and will make the call. If you don't, you are now in the Trey Lance/ Mac Jones/ Kye Trask lottery. Not the best place to be.

My best guess is that the calls will be made, but without desperation. We aren't going to fleece anyone here. It may possibly look like this -

1. Slide down one spot (3 to 4) to Atlanta's pick > Price = Atlanta 2nd round pick #36
2. Detroit or Carolina or Denver trade. Slide from #3 to #7 or #8 or #9 > Price = 2022 1st rounder

We will get the calls, but there will be no blockbuster. Teams are getting smarter & Those prices (above) are fair
 
Last edited:

Mach2

Club Member
Joined
Jun 10, 2018
Messages
9,192
Reaction score
16,169
Age
56
Location
Boynton Bch, Fl
At this position in the draft I think you can throw out Jimmy's old chart. If a team falls in love with Wilson like the Eagles did with Wentz then Grier gets to name his price. If all the QB needy teams think this is a 2 QB draft and both are gone by the time Miami picks then he might struggle to find a partner.

I think the Dolphins have to hope that the Jets lock in on their next franchise savior early on in the process and give teams a good couple months to convince themselves that the remaining one of Fields/Wilson/Lance is too good to pass up on.
The chart is totally useless at the top of the draft.

Going strictly by the chart values, there would be hardly any first round trades ever made.
 

Mach2

Club Member
Joined
Jun 10, 2018
Messages
9,192
Reaction score
16,169
Age
56
Location
Boynton Bch, Fl
Fins in a good spot.

Regardless of what the Jets do, there really are 3 top QBs in this draft.... like the WR group, there is a drop-off after #3 (Wilson).
The Combine will boost the QB stock as it does every year. Teams will fall in love with a QB.

In the 2020 draft, Detroit desperately wanted us to trade up a spot. We held firm and they blinked. We did have leverage then since either Tua or Herbert would be there at #5. Logical that we wanted Tua, but would have been fine with Herbert.

In 2021, things are a bit different. Falcons are really poised to (likely) take Wilson at #4. Now, Detroit/Carolina/Denver (7/8/9) > One of these teams are likely in on Wilson and will make the call. If you don't, you are now in the Trey Lance/ Mac Jones/ Kye Trask lottery. Not the best place to be.

My best guess is that the calls will be made, but without desperation. We aren't going to fleece anyone here. It may possibly look like this -

1. Slide down one spot (3 to 4) to Atlanta's pick > Price = Atlanta 2nd round pick #36
2. Detroit or Carolina or Denver trade. Slide from #3 to #7 or #8 or #9 > Price = 2022 1st rounder

We will get the calls, but there will be no blockbuster. Teams are getting smarter & Those prices (above) are fair
Mostly agree.

I would just say that as long as there are desperate teams, employing moronic GMs, a nice fleecing is always a possibility.
 

Ferretsquig

Perennial All-Pro
Joined
Jun 2, 2002
Messages
7,917
Reaction score
439
Location
Carolina
Fins in a good spot.

Regardless of what the Jets do, there really are 3 top QBs in this draft.... like the WR group, there is a drop-off after #3 (Wilson).
The Combine will boost the QB stock as it does every year. Teams will fall in love with a QB.

I still think someone will sell themselves on Lance being the next Josh Allen. Whether that means he goes 3 or 8 I don't know but that kid is going to wow some people in individual workouts. I wouldn't be shocked if he ends up ahead of Wilson and Fields on a lot of people's boards.
 

Mach2

Club Member
Joined
Jun 10, 2018
Messages
9,192
Reaction score
16,169
Age
56
Location
Boynton Bch, Fl
I still think someone will sell themselves on Lance being the next Josh Allen. Whether that means he goes 3 or 8 I don't know but that kid is going to wow some people in individual workouts. I wouldn't be shocked if he ends up ahead of Wilson and Fields on a lot of people's boards.
A lot of "people's" boards?

Or a lot of NFL team's boards?

It really doesn't matter where he is on at least 20 of the team's boards. They won't be selecting a rd1 QB.
 

Ferretsquig

Perennial All-Pro
Joined
Jun 2, 2002
Messages
7,917
Reaction score
439
Location
Carolina
A lot of "people's" boards?

Or a lot of NFL team's boards?

It really doesn't matter where he is on at least 20 of the team's boards. They won't be selecting a rd1 QB.

Kinda get the impression teams get influenced by "people" or popular web publications. But that's another topic.

That is true but its also true that it only takes one. One Eagles to fall in love with Wentz, Chiefs with Mahomes, Giants with Jones, Bills with Allen. I know they weren't all trades but if any of those teams had caught a whiff of interest in their QB being targeted before they picked they would have felt compelled to trade up. Just need that one team to fall for Lance or Wilson and feel there's no way their player falls to their pick.

Who knows what happens......a long way to go and a great many twists and turns yet to be seen.
 

Ray R

Club Member
Joined
May 19, 2017
Messages
3,117
Reaction score
4,520
Age
74
Location
High Point, NC


Having the third-overall pick in a draft with three highly-regarded quarterbacks gives the Dolphins delicious options.

Either keep the pick and add an elite offensive talent (receivers DeVonta Smith or Ja’Marr Chase or left tackle Penei Sewell) or trade down to acquire even more assets.

So what could Miami realistically snag in such a trade-down? We’ll get to that in a minute.


First, here’s one dynamic that could potentially help the Dolphins in the draft: Atlanta Falcons owner Arthur Blank this week wouldn’t rule out making a change at quarterback, depending on what the team’s new coach wants to do. Matt Ryan, a four-time Pro Bowler, will turn 36 in May.

“Matt’s been a franchise leader for us,” Blank said. “A great quarterback. One of the leading quarterbacks in the last 13 years in the NFL. So I hope he’s going to be part of our plans going forward. But that will be a decision that I won’t make.”

If there’s any question about the Falcons possibly taking a quarterback at No. 4, that could be the impetus for a QB-needy team to try to jump the Falcons and attempt to obtain Miami’s pick at No. 3.

At least one of the top quarterbacks (Ohio State’s Justin Fields or BYU’s Zach Wilson) will be on the board at No. 3. Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence almost assuredly will go first to Jacksonville.

Our Front Office has shown that so far they favor many draft picks and especially higher draft picks.

Based on that history, a trade down for another 1st rounder and a new second rounder, along with a 1st round pick in 2022 or 2023, or even both, seems the most probable scenario. I see that they like large drafts as part of their team building agenda. As we continue to grow as a team, it seems likely that the size of our draft classes will start to shrink down to the normal size of draft each team typically starts out with.

Even then, I think they will continue to use any high draft picks as a trade tool to increase the size of the draft class.
 

bostondolphin

Rookie
Joined
Apr 3, 2020
Messages
45
Reaction score
47
Age
46
Location
Boston
Smith certainly made an impression last night- but I wonder if Fields' poor performance is the bigger story. Not that any one game should matter that much, but not sure he increased his trade value last night.
 

Ray R

Club Member
Joined
May 19, 2017
Messages
3,117
Reaction score
4,520
Age
74
Location
High Point, NC
Is it really the best value, though?

It could be, if that QB comes in and unseats Tua, but if he doesn't, I think it's like a new car. As soon as you drive it off the lot, it loses substantial value. There is no immediate value whatsoever if a guy you pick #3 is not playing.

I agree, though, that a trade down is easier said than done. This would appear to be a good year for that possibility, but ppl talking about 2 #1s+ to move only a few spots are not being realistic. I don't think we have the kind of leverage to pull off some blockbuster deal.

If we want the QB, which I don't think they go that way, they aren't trading at all. If we don't, teams will realize that, and offer lower comp.

Of course it's possible that it becomes a bidding war. I wouldn't count on it though.

I agree it comes down to a bidding war.

In this upcoming draft, I expect that is exactly what will happen.
 

Ray R

Club Member
Joined
May 19, 2017
Messages
3,117
Reaction score
4,520
Age
74
Location
High Point, NC
Seems to me that this draft has 3 sure fire can't miss prospects. Two are QB's, which is the premium position, and a bell cow OT. There are other top choices but none match the 'luster' of the top 3, IMO. That's what makes this pick so valuable. Only 2/3 of the teams seem to have a serviceable QB, at the most critical position on the field.
The step down in promise, and the lack of players at a high level at a position of need for us almost make's is mandatory to trade down, unless we are down on "The Tua".
So the main question is compensation VS the drop is selection position.

Draft luster doesn't seem to last too long in the NFL - LOL
 

Ray R

Club Member
Joined
May 19, 2017
Messages
3,117
Reaction score
4,520
Age
74
Location
High Point, NC
trade down? we have tons of picks already. if we draft a QB who ends up being better than Tua then Tuas value is irrelevant.

Tua's value is not irrelevant if it is part of the Front Offices consideration for a future trade of him. This would be part of their calculation of the total value of both the initial trade and a follow up trade of Tua to justify any trade at all.
 

fansinceGWilson

Super Donator
Club Member
Joined
Mar 14, 2016
Messages
8,104
Reaction score
7,405
The chart is totally useless at the top of the draft.

Going strictly by the chart values, there would be hardly any first round trades ever made.

Agree. The chart is a starting point. That said, in any negotiation, the hungriest person loses. What Grier/Flo have to decide is can they get the guy they want in a move down, and, will what they gain in picks be worth the trade? I think that's a low bar.
 
Top Bottom