What if Dolphin listened to ESPN’s Mel Kiper and Todd McShay for last 7 Drafts? | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

What if Dolphin listened to ESPN’s Mel Kiper and Todd McShay for last 7 Drafts?

Perfect72

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Two of the top analysts each year, especially when it comes to mock draft season, are ESPN’s Mel Kiper, Jr., and Todd McShay.
The two of them will eventually get into the rhythm of posting an update to the mock drafts every other week, providing ESPN with a new mock to post weekly.
It also means, thanks to the internet, we can go back and see what either of those two were thinking the Miami Dolphins should have done with their draft picks each year.

[h=3]Miami Dolphins 1st Round Draft Picks 2010-2016[/h]
YearPlayerPositionAll-ProPro BowlStarter SeasonsGames StartedApproximate Value
2010Jared OdrickDE0036332
2011Mike PounceyC0357740
2012Ryan TannehillQB0057755
2013Dion JordanDE00013
2014Ja'Wuan JamesT0023920
2015DeVante ParkerWR001129
2016Laremy TunsilT001146
Totals:0317283165


One quick note, players like Jared Odrick, who now plays for the Jacksonville Jaguars, have their career AV listed, not just the AV for when they were with the Dolphins.
This allows for a comparison to the players in the mock drafts from McShay and Kiper, no matter where they were drafted or have moved since being selected.


Obviously, for the Dolphins, the biggest letdown in their actual draft choices over the past seven years has been defensive end Dion Jordan, for whom the team traded up to the third-overall selection, but he has only one start in his career and has not played since 2014. He is still on the team’s roster, but there are indications the team is likely to release him this offseason.

[h=3]Mel Kiper’s final mock drafts 2010-2016 - Miami Dolphins picks[/h]
YearPlayerPositionAll-ProPro BowlStarter SeasonsGames StartedApproximate Value
2010Sergio KindleOLB00000
2011Mike PounceyC0357740
2012Ryan TannehillQB0057755
2013Chance WarmackG0034820
2014Ja'Wuan JamesT0023920
2015Kevin JohnsonCB001137
2016Myles JackLB001105
Totals:0317264147


Kiper got a few of his projected Dolphins picks correct, including Mike Pouncey, Ryan Tannehill, and Ja’Wuan James. The 2010 pick of Sergio Kindle would have been a horrible one for the Dolphins. Kindle wound up being a second-round pick of the Baltimore Ravens, staying with the team for three seasons. He lost his rookie season after falling down two flights of stairs in his Austin, Texas home, leading to a fractured skull. After he recovered, he only appeared in three games over the next two seasons before being an in-season release from the Ravens.

Kiper’s pick of Warmack was clearly the better selection than Jordan - but at this point, just about any pick would be better than the Jordan trade and selection.

The Dolphins chose to select wide receiver DeVante Parker rather than selecting Kevin Johnson, who was selected two picks later by the Houston Texans. Miami could still use the cornerback help, especially this season when injuries continued to see secondary players fall to injury, but the selection of Parker, who Kiper had coming off the board with the 10th overall pick, four before Miami’s selection, gives the Dolphins a dynamic duo of receivers in Parker and Jarvis Landry, with Kenny Stills turning it into a dangerous trio of options.

Finally, in the 2016 Draft, no one could have predicted the fall Laremy Tunsil would take. Kiper was one of the later projections for where Tunsil would be selected, going seventh to the San Francisco 49ers. Draft day had its surprise, however, when the now infamous video of Tunsil smoking from a bong was released to the player’s Twitter account just as the Draft was starting. It scared away many teams and the Dolphins snapped up their left tackle heir apparent with the 13th selection. He started 14 games during the season, playing both left guard and left tackle, and demonstrated the potential to be a lock-down player for the Dolphins for years to come. Kiper’s pick of Myles Jack, who was a popular pre-Draft selection for the Dolphins, actually lasted on the board until the second round, when the Jaguars selected him with the 36th overall pick.

[h=3]Todd McShay’s final mock drafts 2010-2016 - Miami Dolphins picks[/h]
YearPlayerPositionAll-ProPro BowlStarter SeasonsGames StartedApproximate Value
2010Derrick MorganDE0068035
2011Mike PounceyC0357740
2012Ryan TannehillQB0057755
2013D.J. FlukerT0045932
2014Cyrus KouandjioT00076
2015DeVante ParkerWR001129
2016Vernon Hargreaves IIICB001166
Totals:0322328183



More at LINK:
http://www.thephinsider.com/nfl-mock-draft-2017/2017/2/1/14468772/nfl-mock-draft-todd-mcshay-mel-kiper-espn-2010-to-2016-review-versus-miami-dolphins-picks


Your thoughts?
:ponder:


 
Sorry Todd McShay, Vernon Hargreaves III had already been drafted by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers when Miami selected at #13 last year. It may be nice to say that we should have listened to Todd and taken Hargreaves, but it is a bit academic when he's already gone. However, we got Tunsil and he was probably the better pick.
 
Interesting. Maybe Miami can still get Chance Warmack now that he's a free agent. I remember liking him in college as someone who could maul in the running game. Haven't followed his pro career and don't know if he's quick enough for what Adam Gase likes.
 
These guys are not scientist by any means.
 
This is a neat analysis, but it would be even better if they had included things like ... what if we hadn't traded back to pick up Jared Odrick and instead drafted Earl Thomas ... or instead of Koa Misi in round 2, we selected Rob Gronkowski. Those are the moves I was advocating for at the time. Who would Kiper and McShay have predicted before the trade back? Who would they have projected for us in the 2nd round?

Also, wow was that 2013 draft terrible. Sure, Dion Jordan is a laughable all-time bust, but there were a lot of busts in that draft, and not a ton of guys who really lived up to their draft status.
 
Sergio Kindle..... wow.

I remember everyone having a nuclear melt down when we took Misi over him. Didn't the dude crack his head open falling down some stairs being too drunk?
 
Pouncy, Tannehill and James were a consensus and Tunsil would have been too if they knew he would fall. Parker was a no brianer too. Dion Jordan screwed us for years with everything given up and the bust he was
 
I'm actually surprised they both hit 3/6 - that's a pretty high rate (but I guess one poster above said Pouncey and Tannehill were a lock?). For all the **** they get, this actually tells me they're not actually complete morons.
 
Not sure what the original article says, but keep in mind these guys don't predict what they think each team should do. They predict what they think each team will do.

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
 
If you go back a decade and they had listened to Slimm it'd look like this:

2016 - Laremy Tunsil
2015 - Marcus Peters
2014 - Deone Bucannon
2013 - Tyler Eifert
2012 - Luke Kuechly
2011 - Mark Ingram
2010 - Dan Williams
2009 - Clay Matthews
2008 - Matt Ryan
2007 - Patrick Willis


Approximate the value on that.
 
Wow! This is awesome, just the kind of thing I've always wondered about. The fact that they used AV makes it extra nice.

I'd love to see a round by round table like this for the top draft experts in this forum. Just a pipe-dream, I know.

:brewskis:
 
These guys are not scientist by any means.

While I agree, both were equally as good as Jeff Ireland. It could be argued they were actually better. What does that say?
 
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