What the Dophins face vs the Chargers; By the Numbers

[foozool13]

I decided to focus on some stats to consider vs Chargers and why this is going to be a very tough game for us to win. And also 2 key ones that will help us win.

Things in Chargers Favor:

Offensive 3rd Down Conversions: 8th in the NFL at 43% -This will be huge challenge for us. Even if we are able to contain Gordon, Rivers is an elite QB who can pick up 3rd and long regularly. Our secondary will be heavily tested.

Points Per Game/Total Pts: 3rd in the NFL with 29.8 ppg and 2nd in total pts with 268 (Miami at 20th with 21.6 ppg and 173 total pts) - The Chargers score points and a lot of them. I expect they will score at least 27. There is no easy solution here, TH needs to put on his big boy pants here and show up. 3rd Down, Red Zone, 4th Quarter play must improve for TH. Luckily Chargers have a defense that gives up a ton of points, so TH will have opportunities.

Number of Plays Run on Offense: 3rd in the NFL with 593 plays run on offense this year. The defense better bring their A game and nothing less, otherwise it will be long ass day.

Offensive Penalties per game: 7th best in the NFL with 6.9 per game at 7.5 yards per penalty (Miami 26th with 7.6 per game at 9.9 yards per penalty) - Miami has been one of the worst teams and maybe we got away with wins at home with this crap, but it wont work on the road vs a disciplined home team (Cant believe I just said that about the CHARGERS of all teams).

Special Teams: It seems like a bit of an obvious one that we would have the edge, but they are actually better at starting field position (32 yard line vs 29 yard line). Their kicker is at 90.9% vs Franks at 78.9%. While Drake was the hero and STs bailed us out, it was STs teams that got us in that hole with the penalty on the Grant TD and the Matt Darr drop. Clean it up and be disciplined. Field position will be huge in this game.

2 Things Dolphins can Exploit:

There is not a whole lot in our favor as the Chargers are playing as well as anyone right now with the offense on a roll. With that considered, Sacks and Fumbles are their biggest weakness from what I have seen and that plays to our strengths

Sacks & Fumbles: 7th worst in Sacks with 22 given up and Last in the NFL with 17 fumbles and 11 lost (Only team with double digit fumbles lost) This is something we can exploit. The two fumbles last week seemed like they were on the ground for 5 mins before someone jumped on them. Cam has been doing a great job creating fumbles and will get more chances. We need to improve in this area and get those balls. Put them in 3rd and long & step up and deliver on D.

If you have some other key stats to post please do, I would love to read them.

 

[ChrisTRD]

Rush Rivers and strip the ball. Create turnovers. Beat them in TOP.

 

[The Bopkin]

Wow, the difference between 6th best in penalties and 26th in the league in penalties in .7 penalties per game.
What a misleading stat that could be.

 

[Eesti]

Indy held them to 22 points. Denver held them to 21 and 19 points. Otherwise they have scored 30+

 

[Avigatorx]

Keep in mind, they have faced some PISS POOR defenses this year. Not that we are world beaters atm, but they played the Colts, Saints, Raiders, and Falcons, which would inflate some of their offensive success this year.

That said, they also played Denver twice and put up 21 and 19 against them.

I agree with ya OP, we will need at least 27 points if we want to walk out of there with a W.

 

[SCLSU Mud Dogs]

Wow, the difference between 6th best in penalties and 26th in the league in penalties in .7 penalties per game.
What a misleading stat that could be.

It was moreso penalty yards than number of penalties.

 

[Atila]

Wow, the difference between 6th best in penalties and 26th in the league in penalties in .7 penalties per game.
What a misleading stat that could be.

Yeah, as the guy above me said - the yardage difference is more than 20 yards.

 

[mnphinfan]

Their defense is pretty putrid right now, datruth posted some pretty eye opening stats in another thread. They are gonna need to, and should be able to, run the ball with success.

 

[Danny]

We might be leading the NFL on dumb penalties thought

Ozzy rules!!

 

[Lionstone]

While I believe numbers are interesting, I am more interested in matchups. Wake and Suh should be able to overpower the right side. I am not impressed with Fluker and the RT. I really have not reviewed the matchup in detail, but we should have that advantage.

 

[Eesti]

Joe Barksdale has given up the 2nd most pressure of any linemen this year. He faces Cam Wake.

Ogbuehi 30.5
Barksdale 28

 

[Fin Thirteen]

While I believe numbers are interesting, I am more interested in matchups. Wake and Suh should be able to overpower the right side. I am not impressed with Fluker and the RT. I really have not reviewed the matchup in detail, but we should have that advantage.

Agreed and I posted the same matchup somewhere else. Mitchell back to help our dline rotation stay fresh is also a big help.

The matchup not so much in our favour is the Rivers/Gates connection vs our cover option in the middle, whoever it turns out to be.

 

[Eesti]

Geting Mitchell back will benefit Jordan Phillips. He's better when he's fresh and gets lost when gassed.

 

[Lionstone]

Agreed and I posted the same matchup somewhere else. Mitchell back to help our dline rotation stay fresh is also a big help.

The matchup not so much in our favour is the Rivers/Gates connection vs our cover option in the middle, whoever it turns out to be.

I am worried about Gates. Kiko has been very good versus the seam route, but Gates is so good at sitting in the soft part of the zone.

Mitchell is big boost to the DT rotation. We could not find a third contributor while Mitchell was out.

 

[hoops]

Phillips was damn good in that jets game...easily his most consistent game...I watched that whole tape again last night and he was very solid

they got that orr kid who is giving them something at the poa and with the take on too...smart of them to get someone who can handle more of the poa play...with Mitchell back from what I see orr needs to stay part of the rotation

wake is like out of a cannon off the edge...he's back to old form...branch is really providing solid pocket push...kiko difference maker but he's got to be careful flying all over the place diving into things late he's taking out his own players...almost lost suh to a lower leg injury and quddus as a result...no friendly fire

quddus by far best looking safety...rambos run fits were ehh...big td run result of a really poor take the inside route and give up the gap by Donald butler...can't do that

lots of cushion vs that top shelf speed from lippett making stop routes pitch and catch vs Robbie Anderson although he tackled well and continues to impress me with his willingness and effort there

vance is disguising some things post snap...could have sworn I saw a cover 2 with the slot McCain being the 2nd level of that coverage at one point from a slot db positioning pre snap...McCain outside of that one td where he was flat footed was solid...I thought they had another td if suh didn't get a shoulder pad on a red zone slant route but McCain played it very well undercutting it

leonard Williams was virtually unblockable...didn't matter who he matched up with he wrecked them...easily top grade in the game for the jets...2nd and 3rd quarters he was flat ridiculous...the strong safety also graded out top level for the jets...he was reshad jones like impact

you think dvp looks labored take a look at caroos get off of the los...yuck...you can't threaten off coverage dbs if you look like a slug off the los with your first step etc...that HAS TO get better

looked to me like dvp physically fell off about the 3rd quarter...some of his snaps there's just no burst or suddenness to him...saw a couple plays where landry on option routes ran the routes into the leverage dbs coverage...got to be cleaner that that...punted on one 3rd down because of it qb had to throw it away...

you want active feet at the end of the drop well tanny had them...in this one he shuffled laterally well vs wide pressure of which there was more than i expected from their edges vs our tackles given the limited # of pass plays we called...that kids just executing the offense...nothing really to gripe about but I guess some people will look for anything

gase with a really nice save the read option for the clock burn out...jets salivating to stop the run up field on the edges leaving cut backs or creases for ajayi to exploit who is seeing the backside and cut backs well and attacking them

hesitation in the jets lb level also out of those read option looks and Miami took advantage

one more thing that was a horizontal screen pass to grant if they had called that forward on the field they would not have overturned it...grant needs to go get the damn ball...we dodged a bullet there...chew him out gase

the almost pick by the olb tanny starts landry in motion to clear that side and shift the defense he reads the edge olb early in the motion which is his only real read there he drops head in center of the field like he should and goes to throw it...olb makes a not expected play to not rush up field at an angle vs the tackle but impede the lead blocker in this case gray off the los and get vertical therefore not allowing james to get to him and impede him and almost picks it...that's just a great not your responsibility play by the olb there...impede the lead blocker yeah ok but not rush vs the tackle yeah that's called instincts...unexpected instincts from a rookie