I think you've got a nice read on Jake Fromm, which shouldn't surprise me as you've got so much exposure to him. I've been watching him pretty closely myself since that fantastic freshman campaign of his.
I think he's a classic boom or bust prospect. Most quarterbacks are. They either succeed spectacularly or fail spectacularly.
The bull case for him is on stuff that's not easy to see. You have to have a lot of exposure to him, or to be a coach, to see it. Those of us who aren't coaches, the uninitiated, can see the bare shape of it if we've got enough exposure. But it's stuff you've detailed about his pre-snap work, his command of the offense, his near flawless grasp of situational awareness, his leadership and the effect he has on teammates, the way he reads the field and gets to his secondary reads and outlets. He has a very wide, working grasp on the do's and dont's of execution, and he shows it play, after play, after play, after play. His accuracy and efficiency are plain enough to see, but taking those traits from the observation stage and translating them into insight is much harder. I think he's got something that the true elites have, in terms of the constellation of these traits. And that's why I say he has a high ceiling.
One of the reasons I like Fromm is because I commonly find the bear case on him to be overstated or illusory.
His arm strength is a great example of that. I do quite a bit of work every year measuring velocities of throws, and have been doing that for 15 years. As a result, I have a pretty good working knowledge of what sort of pass speeds are most common to the NFL at various distances, exempting touch throws and outlet passes. Jake Fromm very frequently hits those common velocities on his throws at Georgia. He does that even though his footwork and follow-through need some work (which isn't uncommon for a third year prospect). So people keep saying he doesn't have the arm talent for the NFL and yet because I can go very deep into this area, I know that they're dead wrong.
The other big knock on him is his mobility. But again this is where I can get a little deeper and I have to say, this is not the weakness others make it out to be. It's not a coincidence his sack rate has gone down significantly every year he's been at Georgia, and it's not purely because of the offensive line, either. The quarterback is the ultimate responsible party for a sack, and Fromm eliminates sacks by getting rid of the football or dodging pressure. He's not elusive like a Kyler Murray or Russell Wilson, and he's not got their speed. But I haven't forgotten either that as a freshman he ran 35 times for 219 yards, with 13 first downs. He's capable of that, it just depends on the way the defense is playing him, and what he's focusing on offensively (the system). He's got an unusually high career 1st down conversion rate on his runs, relative to his yards per carry. There's nothing mystical about that if you have been watching him long enough to be able to gauge how near flawless his situational awareness is. It means that a lot of his gains are going to be clustered around what was required on the play.
So the two greatest knocks on him...aren't really knocks. To me, they're actually strengths. At least, they are at the college level.
Which begs the question, what are the real knocks?
His hands measured 8.75 inches in high school. That can grow from when you're a 17 year old to when you're a 21 year old. But the fact his hands measured that way gives me a context for some of my other observations about him. It's the intersectionality with various other observations that makes it potentially dangerous:
- For one, you've got the bad habit that Slimm has detailed about him flipping the ball in his hands after the snap. Sometimes he does it frantically. Most agree it's a bad habit. Does he need to do it to get an ideal grip on the football, so that he can rip it properly?
- I note with dismay that he's had 11 lost fumbles in his career, which is a high number relative to his 42 sacks and 79 runs. Is that a hand size thing?
- Similarly, why does it seem like he muffs a shotgun snap or a center exchange once a game?
- Why did the coaches show zero faith in him to throw the football in the Kentucky game where it was wet and blustery? Is that a hand size thing? For that matter, why did it seem like Jake didn't have much faith in his own ability to grip and rip it in that weather?
- Finally there's the simple fact that if you watch enough of his throws you're going to see quite a few flutter balls. The accuracy is good despite this, but the spin still isn't high quality. This is something that commonly gets better with professional maturity. UNLESS...is it a hand size thing?
There's also the way he handles pressure, something I think Slimm has touched on a number of times. He definitely shows a global tendency to lean away from defenders where he could be attacking the line of scrimmage, making people miss, etc. It's been gradually getting better during his three year career. But the speed of the NFL has a way of making you regress to what you showed earlier in your college career, until you start to get used to the speed of the game (that is, IF you ever get used to the speed of the game). Again the intersectionality of this trait is what makes it dangerous. Is this why he doesn't have great follow-through with his feet and hips on a lot of his throws? Is this a hard-wired thing or is it something he can work on?
Finally there's the simple fact that he doesn't have the size and strength of guys like Cam Newton, Ben Roethlisberger, or Carson Wentz. He doesn't have the cannon arm of guys like Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, or Matthew Stafford. He doesn't have the speed or elusiveness of a Lamar Jackson or Kyler Murray, or the ability to go off-script like a Josh Allen, DeShaun Watson, or Russell Wilson. Some people make light of this, saying those things aren't necessary. They're not. But they certainly help! He's going to have to compete directly with Cam Newton, Ben Roethlisberger, Carson Wentz, Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, Matthew Stafford, Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, DeShaun Watson, and Russell Wilson. It's simple: when you face one of them, either they win the game, or you win the game. Not having the sort of league-leading traits that they do can magnify your other shortcomings (which I've already outlined). He's going to have to show that he has things they don't have.
Where does this leave me on Jake Fromm? He's a high ceiling, low floor guy. If I can't get my hands on a high ceiling, high floor guy like Tua Tagovailoa, I'd be more than happy to put Fromm's name on my card come April.
