What would a Marino contract look like today?

EJay

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Between 2001-2009....the NFL made several rules changes which greatly effected the NFL passing game...this started shortly after Marino left the league.

Marino had long standing records that would start falling like dominoes...to players that would never have touched his numbers before the changes....Guys like Brees, Manning, and Brady started putting crazy numbers up they never would have touched before these changes.
Glad you brought this up. I’ve made these points many times over the years.

I challenge anyone that doesn’t buy in or understand to research the production of QB’s that overlapped the era prior to 2004ish and after.

Manning and Brady are the very first guys to be looked at.

Manning‘s first 6 seasons in the league, from 1998 - 2003, he only accomplished 30+ TD passes ONE single time. However, he accomplished it FIVE times from 2004 on, including surpassing Marino’s record by a single TD in 2004, right in the midst of the QB friendly rule changes.

That’s pretty compelling to me.

Oh, and he really never got close to the 5K yard mark for most those seasons, until 2013 when the QB/offensive friendly rules were all in full effect.

Next look at Brady.

Throw out 2000, cause he didn’t really play. But from 2001 through 2006, he never even reached 30 TD passes one time. And only topped 4K yards on a single occasion.

But then 2007 happened and he accomplished 30+ TD passes SIX additional times since. He surpassed 5K once and threatened it another few times. Again, all after 2006.

Again, all pretty compelling.

Next in line is Drew Brees.

Throw out 2001, cause he didn’t really play. But from 2002 through 2007, he never even reached 30 TD passes one time. And only topped 4K yards twice.

But then 2008 happened where he surpassed 5K and finally reached 30+ TD’s. From 2008 and on, he accomplished 5K+ yards FIVE times and 30+ TD passes in 10 out 12 total seasons

Again, all after 2007.

Also very compelling when you consider he never accomplished either mark through his first 6 seasons as a starter, and really never threatened them much.

So there you have it. Arguably the three top, most stat worthy QB’s of the past 22 years and all of them demonstrated an eerily similar career arc. All posting non-elite TD’s numbers and slightly above average to very good yardage numbers for the first SIX years of their careers.

Then, between 2004 and 2008, their production all made significant spikes as if it was the steroid era in baseball. And it maintained throughout the remainder of their careers.

When you factor in the careers of other QB’s that entered the league during 2004 - 2008 and after, like say Matt Stafford who has also hit 5K yards and 40+ TD’s, it’s very easy to see that the landscape drastically changed.

The one QB I researched that bridged both eras that didn’t have anywhere as noticeable spike in production was Brett Favre. Unlike the others, he was posting the same numbers well before 2004ish.
 

BlueFin

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Glad you brought this up. I’ve made these points many times over the years.

I challenge anyone that doesn’t buy in or understand to research the production of QB’s that overlapped the era prior to 2004ish and after.

Manning and Brady are the very first guys to be looked at.

Manning‘s first 6 seasons in the league, from 1998 - 2003, he only accomplished 30+ TD passes ONE single time. However, he accomplished it FIVE times from 2004 on, including surpassing Marino’s record by a single TD in 2004, right in the midst of the QB friendly rule changes.

That’s pretty compelling to me.

Oh, and he really never got close to the 5K yard mark for most those seasons, until 2013 when the QB/offensive friendly rules were all in full effect.

Next look at Brady.

Throw out 2000, cause he didn’t really play. But from 2001 through 2006, he never even reached 30 TD passes one time. And only topped 4K yards on a single occasion.

But then 2007 happened and he accomplished 30+ TD passes SIX additional times since. He surpassed 5K once and threatened it another few times. Again, all after 2006.

Again, all pretty compelling.

Next in line is Drew Brees.

Throw out 2001, cause he didn’t really play. But from 2002 through 2007, he never even reached 30 TD passes one time. And only topped 4K yards twice.

But then 2008 happened where he surpassed 5K and finally reached 30+ TD’s. From 2008 and on, he accomplished 5K+ yards FIVE times and 30+ TD passes in 10 out 12 total seasons

Again, all after 2007.

Also very compelling when you consider he never accomplished either mark through his first 6 seasons as a starter, and really never threatened them much.

So there you have it. Arguably the three top, most stat worthy QB’s of the past 22 years and all of them demonstrated an eerily similar career arc. All posting non-elite TD’s numbers and slightly above average to very good yardage numbers for the first SIX years of their careers.

Then, between 2004 and 2008, their production all made significant spikes as if it was the steroid era in baseball. And it maintained throughout the remainder of their careers.

When you factor in the careers of other QB’s that entered the league during 2004 - 2008 and after, like say Matt Stafford who has also hit 5K yards and 40+ TD’s, it’s very easy to see that the landscape drastically changed.

The one QB I researched that bridged both eras that didn’t have anywhere as noticeable spike in production was Brett Favre. Unlike the others, he was posting the same numbers well before 2004ish.
Great post...also Favre was in decline by the time these rules went into full effect.

The records are now meaningless as they continue to alter the rules...and a 17 game season will just make the current records even more irrelevant.
 

royalshank

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Glad you brought this up. I’ve made these points many times over the years.

I challenge anyone that doesn’t buy in or understand to research the production of QB’s that overlapped the era prior to 2004ish and after.

Manning and Brady are the very first guys to be looked at.

Manning‘s first 6 seasons in the league, from 1998 - 2003, he only accomplished 30+ TD passes ONE single time. However, he accomplished it FIVE times from 2004 on, including surpassing Marino’s record by a single TD in 2004, right in the midst of the QB friendly rule changes.

That’s pretty compelling to me.

Oh, and he really never got close to the 5K yard mark for most those seasons, until 2013 when the QB/offensive friendly rules were all in full effect.

Next look at Brady.

Throw out 2000, cause he didn’t really play. But from 2001 through 2006, he never even reached 30 TD passes one time. And only topped 4K yards on a single occasion.

But then 2007 happened and he accomplished 30+ TD passes SIX additional times since. He surpassed 5K once and threatened it another few times. Again, all after 2006.

Again, all pretty compelling.

Next in line is Drew Brees.

Throw out 2001, cause he didn’t really play. But from 2002 through 2007, he never even reached 30 TD passes one time. And only topped 4K yards twice.

But then 2008 happened where he surpassed 5K and finally reached 30+ TD’s. From 2008 and on, he accomplished 5K+ yards FIVE times and 30+ TD passes in 10 out 12 total seasons

Again, all after 2007.

Also very compelling when you consider he never accomplished either mark through his first 6 seasons as a starter, and really never threatened them much.

So there you have it. Arguably the three top, most stat worthy QB’s of the past 22 years and all of them demonstrated an eerily similar career arc. All posting non-elite TD’s numbers and slightly above average to very good yardage numbers for the first SIX years of their careers.

Then, between 2004 and 2008, their production all made significant spikes as if it was the steroid era in baseball. And it maintained throughout the remainder of their careers.

When you factor in the careers of other QB’s that entered the league during 2004 - 2008 and after, like say Matt Stafford who has also hit 5K yards and 40+ TD’s, it’s very easy to see that the landscape drastically changed.

The one QB I researched that bridged both eras that didn’t have anywhere as noticeable spike in production was Brett Favre. Unlike the others, he was posting the same numbers well before 2004ish.
Great work! I don’t know what more anyone needs to see to understand what ex coaches and players mean when they say “Dan would throw for 6,000 and 60 TDs today”. I watched a lot of great QBs before, during and after Marino. Favre was a knucklehead but he was great. Stafford, Brees - meh. And I mean meh about Brees. Manning was special IMO but absolutely helped out by the rules as your analysis shows. And Brady was never the gunslinger type to go w those lofty stats when you throw 5 yard passes all day. This is damn compelling and concisely articulated. It’s clear the bar is way up thanks to the rules. I’m willing to bet their TD to INT ratios went up too.
 

BlueFin

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Great work! I don’t know what more anyone needs to see to understand what ex coaches and players mean when they say “Dan would throw for 6,000 and 60 TDs today”. I watched a lot of great QBs before, during and after Marino. Favre was a knucklehead but he was great. Stafford, Brees - meh. And I mean meh about Brees. Manning was special IMO but absolutely helped out by the rules as your analysis shows. And Brady was never the gunslinger type to go w those lofty stats when you throw 5 yard passes all day. This is damn compelling and concisely articulated. It’s clear the bar is way up thanks to the rules. I’m willing to bet their TD to INT ratios went up too.
Absolutely...completion percentage is also gone crazy.

All of this is fine if it’s the way they want the game played...just don’t act like these current QB’s are far superior to great QB’s of the past when the game has drastically changed.
 

EJay

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A lot of these younger fans don't know as much about the game, and its history as they think they do.
Post of the year IMO.

Truer words have not been spoken.

I’ve had similar debates with younger fans not only about football, but recently about basketball since the Michael Jordan v LeBron James thing has heated up in recent weeks.

I determined that I can’t can‘t have a productive discussion with 95% of the younger generation for exactly the reason you cited.

They just have no frame of reference. They research and look at stats and think they know everything because of it.

But as I’ve detailed with Marino, stats between the eras just aren’t comparable. Because the game is so very different. Not only rules wise, but accepted styles of play. And it’s happened across all major sports.

Now, to prove I’m not a hypocrite, I’ve always tried to avoid falling into the same trap as these millennial.

When I discuss with anyone who I believe is GOAT player or team wise, I always preface it with “in my viewing lifetime”.

Because, while I have been following all these sports since I was 6 (yes, I was even hardcore about it at that age - my parents can attest) and am more than familiar with players that played before my lifetime — I fully recognize and acknowledge that I’m missing context and frame of reference from those eras.

I only saw Jim Brown, Bill Russell and Wilt Chamberlain play via highlights. And studied their careers stat wise. I didn’t see them play game by game and year after year to truly gauge the level of their opponents or to understand the differences in rules and how the game was permitted and dictated to be played.

In summary, I know enough to know that I don’t know enough to speak from a highly educated standpoint.

So everything I state as opinion regarding the best teams or players of all time are always from 1976 ish and on. Because I’ve seen the players, teams, and sports evolve from that time on.

There are indeed some young millennials out there that are open to learning and understanding the same as I have, but unfortunately most of them aren’t.
 

EJay

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Great post...also Favre was in decline by the time these rules went into full effect.

The records are now meaningless as they continue to alter the rules...and a 17 game season will just make the current records even more irrelevant.
You bring up another fantastic point that practically nobody considers when they compare these incomparable stats between eras.

Before you can even get to the rule changes and other factors skewing production, you must acknowledge the difference in the length of the season.

When Marino broke the TD record, he did it in 16 games versus the 14 games that had been the standard prior to 1978. Same goes for OJ Simpson’s 2000+ yard season and other records previously set in the sport. And at some point, they played even less games.

MLB played 154 games prior to going to 162. And even less before that.

All kinds of records are changed when more games are played.

Circling back to Marino, he smashed the record enough that IIRC he still would have owned it through 14 games.
 

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You bring up another fantastic point that practically nobody considers when they compare these incomparable stats between eras.

Before you can even get to the rule changes and other factors skewing production, you must acknowledge the difference in the length of the season.

When Marino broke the TD record, he did it in 16 games versus the 14 games that had been the standard prior to 1978. Same goes for OJ Simpson’s 2000+ yard season and other records previously set in the sport. And at some point, they played even less games.

MLB played 154 games prior to going to 162. And even less before that.

All kinds of records are changed when more games are played.

Circling back to Marino, he smashed the record enough that IIRC he still would have owned it through 14 games.
Exactly...after 14 games...Marino had 40 touchdowns....exceeding the previous record by 4.
 

EJay

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@BlueFin and @royalshank

Want some more compelling evidence how different the pre-2004 era was in terms of rules and QB/offensive production?

Consider this:

Joe Montana NEVER threw for 4K yards and only accomplished 30+ TD’s in a single season ONCE.

John Elway NEVER accomplished 30+ TD’s in a single season and only topped 4K yards ONCE.

Part of the reason why was offensive balance, but another large reason was that it was harder to do so back then. For numerous reasons already stated.
 

royalshank

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@BlueFin and @royalshank

Want some more compelling evidence how different the pre-2004 era was in terms of rules and QB/offensive production?

Consider this:

Joe Montana NEVER threw for 4K yards and only accomplished 30+ TD’s in a single season ONCE.

John Elway NEVER accomplished 30+ TD’s in a single season and only topped 4K yards ONCE.

Part of the reason why was offensive balance, but another large reason was that it was harder to do so back then. For numerous reasons already stated.
Wow! That’s crazy. It “felt” like they did, that’s for sure. Imagine Montana today w the dink and dunk? He’d lull you w those plays then hit someone on a beautiful touch throw 20+ yards downfield. I know Elways TD to INT was 300 to 226 - way off of Dan’s pace. INTs were part of the game. What was it Chuck Knox said? “When you pass, 3 things can happen and two of them are bad” hence earning him the nickname “Ground Chuck.” Anyway, I find it a bit sad that the younger fans didn’t get to see Marino and Elway and Montana and Staubach etc - yet know no better than to think Stafford and Matt Ryan w their stats are elite QBs. Shame.
 

royalshank

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@BlueFin and @royalshank

Want some more compelling evidence how different the pre-2004 era was in terms of rules and QB/offensive production?

Consider this:

Joe Montana NEVER threw for 4K yards and only accomplished 30+ TD’s in a single season ONCE.

John Elway NEVER accomplished 30+ TD’s in a single season and only topped 4K yards ONCE.

Part of the reason why was offensive balance, but another large reason was that it was harder to do so back then. For numerous reasons already stated.
I’m sorry but this still has me stunned as I’ve been a die hard fan since the mid-seventies so recall the 80’s so well. Or so I thought. Not only did Dan have the 48 when the next highest was 26 or whatever that year, two years later he tossed 44.
 

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I always wonder what could have been had Marino didn’t tear his achillies tendon in 93...not just from a stats stand point but also from a team success stand point...would we have lost the last 5 games of the season to finish 9-7 or would we have continued the run from 4-1 and gone says 12-4/13-3 and a deep playoff push...the only game I went to was that game in Cleveland..:I was 11 and cried like a baby because the Dawg Pound was relentless even to a child...lmao
 
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