Who Goes Earlier, Later Than Expected?

[JahnDho]

Ed Oliver in the 8-12 range. Definitely a freakish athlete. But it doesn’t translate into freakish pass rushing production. Although he spent a lot of time lined up acrossed the C, he didn’t exactly over achieve when lined up in either gap. Not deserving of a top 5 pick when it’s as deep a class as it is. Someone looking for an elite run stuffing DL would take him higher, but I don’t expect that to happen. I wouldn’t spend the 13th pick on DL unless he checked all the boxes.

 

[FSU Truth]

Ed Oliver in the 8-12 range. Definitely a freakish athlete. But it doesn’t translate into freakish pass rushing production. Although he spent a lot of time lined up acrossed the C, he didn’t exactly over achieve when lined up in either gap. Not deserving of a top 5 pick when it’s as deep a class as it is. Someone looking for an elite run stuffing DL would take him higher, but I don’t expect that to happen. I wouldn’t spend the 13th pick on DL unless he checked all the boxes.

Interesting as his numbers were better then almost any d-lineman to come out in the last 8 or so year with the exception of Donald. He also did not have the benefitHas he done anythng of having anyone on that defense being close to the threat he was so he would be the focal point of the offensive line.

His TFL's were crazy...53 in 32 games...

Suh had under 50 in 53 games
G. McCoy had 33 in 40 games
F. Cox had 24.5 in 36 games
Donald in the only college player who had Oliver's level of disruption with 66 in 53 games (which is still at a lower clip then Oliver)

Now I won't say he will be Donald's level of play, but to say his athlete doesn't match the production is insane and completely false.

 

[JahnDho]

Interesting as his numbers were better then almost any d-lineman to come out in the last 8 or so year with the exception of Donald. He also did not have the benefitHas he done anythng of having anyone on that defense being close to the threat he was so he would be the focal point of the offensive line.

His TFL's were crazy...53 in 32 games...

Suh had under 50 in 53 games
G. McCoy had 33 in 40 games
F. Cox had 24.5 in 36 games
Donald in the only college player who had Oliver's level of disruption with 66 in 53 games (which is still at a lower clip then Oliver)

Now I won't say he will be Donald's level of play, but to say his athlete doesn't match the production is insane and completely false.

You misunderstood my post. I referred to his skill set against the run as elite. It’s his pass rush statistics that don’t jump out. His overall grade puts him in the conversation at 13...I just wouldn’t pick a DL there who isn’t elite at both the run and the pass. I’d rather have an elite edge rusher like your boy Brian Burns there.

Oliver’s production you’re referring too is primarily against the run. He grades out, per PFF, 10th against the pass of all interior DL when lined up on the C. And 7th when lined up anywhere else. He’s a beast against the run. Maybe the best. Just saying he doesn’t check all the boxes for me at 13. Would be worth trading back and getting him later in the 1st though.

 

[FSU Truth]

You misunderstood my post. I referred to his skill set against the run as elite. It’s his pass rush that is just average. His overall grade puts him in the conversation at 13...I just wouldn’t pick a DL there who isn’t elite at both the run and the pass. I’d rather have an elite edge rusher.

Oliver’s production you’re referring too is primarily against the run. He grades out, per PFF, 10th against the pass of all interior DL when lined up on the C. And 7th when lined up anywhere else. He’s a beast against the run. Maybe the best. Just saying he doesn’t check all the boxes for me at 13. Would be worth trading back and getting him later in the 1st though.

I didn't misunderstand your post.

A DT worth in the top 10 is based on their ability to penetrate. in the run game, it is more difficult for a team to put 3 guys on a player because they need to account for the second level (hell other than chipping you rarely get a second person to help. in the passing game, especially for a team like Houston who had little else to worry about, it is much easier for a team to throw 2/3 guys consistently at Oliver.

Even when you compare the sack numbers of other interior d-lineman...Suh, McCoy, and even Donald had the benefit of playing the 3tech. Oliver was the NT/1 tech...maybe a 2i It is much easier to have a guard and RB give the pivot help on those plays. Still, Oliver's numbers are comparable and even better than those players (against, with the exception of Donald). The guy never really had the chance to just fire off and get up field...head up or heavy alignments. None of it was advantageous for pass rushing.

 

[JahnDho]

I didn't misunderstand your post.

A DT worth in the top 10 is based on their ability to penetrate. in the run game, it is more difficult for a team to put 3 guys on a player because they need to account for the second level (hell other than chipping you rarely get a second person to help. in the passing game, especially for a team like Houston who had little else to worry about, it is much easier for a team to throw 2/3 guys consistently at Oliver.

Even when you compare the sack numbers of other interior d-lineman...Suh, McCoy, and even Donald had the benefit of playing the 3tech. Oliver was the NT/1 tech...maybe a 2i It is much easier to have a guard and RB give the pivot help on those plays. Still, Oliver's numbers are comparable and even better than those players (against, with the exception of Donald). The guy never really had the chance to just fire off and get up field...head up or heavy alignments. None of it was advantageous for pass rushing.

Before your post was about his ability to be disruptive. Now you’re trying to tell me it’s all about the run. Sounds like you’re just trying to save face. You damn well know both are major factors. My point is I’d want elite at both pass and run at that spot or I’d find an elite player at another position. Someone who checks all the boxes.

Not to get in a pissing match over his position but he lined up primarily in the 0 tech spot. You could use that as an excuse, but I could use his level of competition as an excuse too to say he didn’t play against stout competition. But that wasn’t my defense for my point. It was the simple fact there are 9 interior lineman who performed better against the pass when playing in that same position and 6 better interior lineman when they played the other positions (1 and 2i). Grades are from PFF for anyone who wants to crosscheck these rankings.

 

[FSU Truth]

Not to get in a pissing match over his position but he lined up primarily in th 0 tech spot. You could use that as an excuse, but I could use his level of competition as an excuse too to say he didn’t play against stout competition. But that wasn’t my defense for my point. It was the simple fact there are 9 interior lineman who performed better against the pass when playing in that same position and 6 better interior lineman when they played the other positions (1 and 2i). Grades are from PFF for anyone who wants to crosscheck these rankings.

9?

Oh, you are a PFF guy...nevermind.

I won't continue to waste my time.

 

[JahnDho]

9?

Oh, you are a PFF guy...nevermind.

I won't continue to waste my time.

Go ahead, let’s hear why PFF is no good...

 

[FSU Truth]

Go ahead, let’s hear why PFF is no good...

They do not take into account the players responsibility (or play call)...they can do their best to guess, but they do not know what the player is responsible for. Even coaches have called out the website for their grading methods. How can you grade a player just based on film...it should hold no more weight than a website giving a team a "B' for their draft...

It means nothing and it seems to have juice because of Collinsworth owns a majority of the company.

 

[JahnDho]

They do not take into account the players responsibility (or play call)...they can do their best to guess, but they do not know what the player is responsible for. Even coaches have called out the website for their grading methods. How can you grade a player just based on film...it should hold no more weight than a website giving a team a "B' for their draft...

It means nothing and it seems to have juice because of Collinsworth owns a majority of the company.

Stats are stats...not sure how a deep dive into analytics means nothing?

And I’m not a PFF only guy. I prefer film myself. But the analytics side is interesting and important.

 

[FSU Truth]

Stats are stats...not sure how a deep dive into analytics means nothing?

And I’m not a PFF only guy. I prefer film myself. But the analytics side is interesting and important.

Can we agree that PFF and even advanced analytics should be parts of the puzzle, but not a majority of the puzzle and leave it at that?

 

[JahnDho]

Can we agree that PFF and even advanced analytics should be parts of the puzzle, but not a majority of the puzzle and leave it at that?

Totally cool with that.

All I was ever saying was that the advanced analytics bring up a red flag. Just something to consider. I’d hate for the fins to miss on another guy. I don’t want to hear people saying Oliver is great against the run but he sure has let us fans down against the pass. There’s undoubtedly going to be studs taken after Oliver and I want one of those. Brian Burns may be one of those guys at DE. Maybe Dillard or Taylor at T is a better pick. I know I don’t want a QB there.

 

[j-off-her-doll]

Before your post was about his ability to be disruptive. Now you’re trying to tell me it’s all about the run. Sounds like you’re just trying to save face. You damn well know both are major factors. My point is I’d want elite at both pass and run at that spot or I’d find an elite player at another position. Someone who checks all the boxes.

Not to get in a pissing match over his position but he lined up primarily in the 0 tech spot. You could use that as an excuse, but I could use his level of competition as an excuse too to say he didn’t play against stout competition. But that wasn’t my defense for my point. It was the simple fact there are 9 interior lineman who performed better against the pass when playing in that same position and 6 better interior lineman when they played the other positions (1 and 2i). Grades are from PFF for anyone who wants to crosscheck these rankings.

I don't subscribe to PFF, but I was listening to their podcast, Steve and Mike on this particular episode, and I believe Oliver ranked as the #3 pass-rushing DT from the 3-tech. My memory is a little fuzzy, but I think they filtered both all snaps and passing situations, and he ended up Top 5 in each. For whatever reason, this was supposedly the first time they ran this filter.

Anyway, Oliver's hands aren't on Donald's level - or on Q. Williams' level - but they're good and improving, and he's the most freakish athlete we've seen in a top DT prospect. I think there's still a chance he slips, but he shouldn't.

 

[JahnDho]

I don't subscribe to PFF, but I was listening to their podcast, Steve and Mike on this particular episode, and I believe Oliver ranked as the #3 pass-rushing DT from the 3-tech. My memory is a little fuzzy, but I think they filtered both all snaps and passing situations, and he ended up Top 5 in each. For whatever reason, this was supposedly the first time they ran this filter.

Anyway, Oliver's hands aren't on Donald's level - or on Q. Williams' level - but they're good and improving, and he's the most freakish athlete we've seen in a top DT prospect. I think there's still a chance he slips, but he shouldn't.

I like a lot of their analytics. If you follow PFF on Twitter, you can get a ton of stuff for free.

 

[JahnDho]

I don't subscribe to PFF, but I was listening to their podcast, Steve and Mike on this particular episode, and I believe Oliver ranked as the #3 pass-rushing DT from the 3-tech. My memory is a little fuzzy, but I think they filtered both all snaps and passing situations, and he ended up Top 5 in each. For whatever reason, this was supposedly the first time they ran this filter.

Anyway, Oliver's hands aren't on Donald's level - or on Q. Williams' level - but they're good and improving, and he's the most freakish athlete we've seen in a top DT prospect. I think there's still a chance he slips, but he shouldn't.

Great counter point though. Would make for a stud 4-3 DL then. Assuming it translates.

 

[Danny]

I believe Burns and Ferrell will go later than we first thought. Still in the first round but they both could be outside the top 15.
Who's going to go higher? Daniel Jones and Will Grier. Not saying they should but teams reach for QB's every year.