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Who would be too good to pass up?

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I know the Fins have a plan that they will stick to, but if there is one player that drops that would throw them off their plan, who would it be? Who is the one player that would be too good to pass up and derail their plans?
 
First off, the "game plan" does entail a draft board, period. And a draft board isn't just one player, it's a bunch of players. They don't know who they'll be taking at #12. Always knowing who you will be taking means always getting an overvalued draft pick, by definition...because the only way that you could *know* the guy is going to be available would be if you *know* that the rest of the NFL is undervaluing the guy by a fair amount. And then that means you're consistently betting against the rest of the NFL knowing what they're doing, and that's a bad bet. There are lots of smart people out there that work just as hard as everyone else, have just as much a feel for this business as everyone else, and have needs at the same positions as you. You can't make your way on a claim that you can consistently identify, a month in advance, the guy that will slip through the cracks and yet be an excellent football player. That's way too hard a question, you can try and say you can consistently answer that question but it's just needlessly overconfident.

Otherwise, imagine this situation where every year you identify two months in advance the guy that you're going to go with in the draft. You gear toward him, research the heck out of him, but you're not the only guy that recognizes how good he is and he's taken 5 picks ahead of you. Well, sh-t! Now what? That's why you can't operate like that. No draft prospect is 'yours'. Everything is about a draft grade and from there you take a look at the guys available that have maybe the same grade (or very, very close) and you decide on position needs and fit for your team.

That said, at the end of the day when you see your draft grades stacked up, the laws of practicality dictate that you can see a guy or two that are a little higher on your board than you expect they are on other peoples' and so you might say there's a pretty good chance everyone above this guy will be gone but that this guy will be available when we pick, so this guy has a high percentage shot of ending up be the guy. If I were a GM and I saw that, first off I'd re-check and make sure he's worthy of the high grade. If so, then you do start to have a feel that there's a good chance this guy will end up with your club...but only in an after-the-fact, bottom-up way.

And even then you are prepared for and very expectant of the unexpected happening. That's where this question comes into play. But if you've done your job right, EVERY player is too good to pass up...depending on who else is available.

In this case I would say that Dez Bryant, C.J. Spiller and Eric Berry are three players that are too good to pass up, guys I grade higher than #12 and yet who conceivably could get to #12 in some weird scenarios.
 
simple question...would you take bryant over spiller??? i would

but i'd take berry over them both
 
There are only two players I would not pass on: Gerald McCoy and Ndamukong Suh.

There are four players I could pass on but with painfull reluctance: C.J Spiller, Brandon Graham, Sean Weatherspoon, Brandon LaFell.
 
i think BERRY would be that pic tyhey wouldnt pass up.

i am sure he is high on there draft board but like most,
they feel he will be long gone. but if he did fall....


Otherwise, imagine this situation where every year you identify two months in advance the guy that you're going to go with in the draft. You gear toward him, research the heck out of him, but you're not the only guy that recognizes how good he is and he's taken 5 picks ahead of you. Well, sh-t! Now what? That's why you can't operate like that. No draft prospect is 'yours'. Everything is about a draft grade and from there you take a look at the guys available that have maybe the same grade (or very, very close) and you decide on position needs and fit for your team.
Click to expand...


NOW THERE YA GO CK!! theres some "guru-ish" insight.

you are corrrect. and i have been trying hard to get some of
these guys to get with that mind set. so many lock on to
ONE GUY [this year its mcclain, before it was glenn dorsey].

and they are just sick when it doesnt happen and they curse
the draft and the team brass and become withdrawn.

they lose all focus seeing only one guy as ANY possible pic.

when you have a team like the dolphins who need mcclain as
bad as 15 other players in this draft, with so many holes, it
doesnt make sense.

good thing MOST nfl teams and gm's dont set there whole draft
on one player. [see mike ditka with the saints and ricky williams]

you have to have a plan. its a MAJOR crap shoot that a clubs player
of want will be there and you have to have SEVERAL in mind. and
drafts are never so bad that there is ONLY one option [unless you
nick saban and you reach on ronnie brown believing there is NO
other talent worth the #2 over all].

i just used a lot of what you wrote in context to how so many
fans set themselves up for huge let downs falling into these
"cult like" worshipping and tunnel vision on ANY one particular
player. nfl clubs can fall into the same trap and that is the WORST
thing they could ever do!

if a person is REALLY into the draft and TRUELLY knows there
teams needs and weeknesses, you never end up with that
sort of single minded hope. there are SEVERAL players that
the finz need and are EVERY BIT WORTHY of the #12 spot
besides ROLONDO MCCLAIN.

and, if the players are gone that the club deems worthy of
the #12, the 12 spot is a real prime position to be in for
trade downs.

a draft NEVER begins or ends with one player if those following
or making the decisions are knowledgable.
 
ColonelJ said:
There are only two players I would not pass on: Gerald McCoy and Ndamukong Suh.

There are four players I could pass on but with painfull reluctance: C.J Spiller, Brandon Graham, Sean Weatherspoon, Brandon LaFell.
Click to expand...

As soon as you said Lafell you lost all credibility. Have you ever seen him play. He is not a number 1 or 2 IMO, doesnt have the build to play slot so i guess that makes him an NFL 4. No thanks. And no Eric Berry???
 
NRA said:
i think BERRY would be that pic tyhey wouldnt pass up.

i am sure he is high on there draft board but like most,
they feel he will be long gone. but if he did fall....





NOW THERE YA GO CK!! theres some "guru-ish" insight.

you are corrrect. and i have been trying hard to get some of
these guys to get with that mind set. so many lock on to
ONE GUY [this year its mcclain, before it was glenn dorsey].

and they are just sick when it doesnt happen and they curse
the draft and the team brass and become withdrawn.

they lose all focus seeing only one guy as ANY possible pic.

when you have a team like the dolphins who need mcclain as
bad as 15 other players in this draft, with so many holes, it
doesnt make sense.

good thing MOST nfl teams and gm's dont set there whole draft
on one player. [see mike ditka with the saints and ricky williams]

you have to have a plan. its a MAJOR crap shoot that a clubs player
of want will be there and you have to have SEVERAL in mind. and
drafts are never so bad that there is ONLY one option [unless you
nick saban and you reach on ronnie brown believing there is NO
other talent worth the #2 over all].

i just used a lot of what you wrote in context to how so many
fans set themselves up for huge let downs falling into these
"cult like" worshipping and tunnel vision on ANY one particular
player. nfl clubs can fall into the same trap and that is the WORST
thing they could ever do!

if a person is REALLY into the draft and TRUELLY knows there
teams needs and weeknesses, you never end up with that
sort of single minded hope. there are SEVERAL players that
the finz need and are EVERY BIT WORTHY of the #12 spot
besides ROLONDO MCCLAIN.

and, if the players are gone that the club deems worthy of
the #12, the 12 spot is a real prime position to be in for
trade downs.

a draft NEVER begins or ends with one player if those following
or making the decisions are knowledgable.
Click to expand...

Who?
 
skipp2myloo13 said:
As soon as you said Lafell you lost all credibility. Have you ever seen him play. He is not a number 1 or 2 IMO, doesnt have the build to play slot so i guess that makes him an NFL 4. No thanks. And no Eric Berry???
Click to expand...

Wow. Well, let me use your logic: "IMO" Berry is not a FS or SS, and he does not have the built to be a CB or LB or DL. Therefore, Berry can not play defense in the NFL.

Back to reality. I like Berry a lot. Add him to the list.
 
NRA said:
i think BERRY would be that pic tyhey wouldnt pass up.

i am sure he is high on there draft board but like most,
they feel he will be long gone. but if he did fall....





NOW THERE YA GO CK!! theres some "guru-ish" insight.

you are corrrect. and i have been trying hard to get some of
these guys to get with that mind set. so many lock on to
ONE GUY [this year its mcclain, before it was glenn dorsey].

and they are just sick when it doesnt happen and they curse
the draft and the team brass and become withdrawn.

they lose all focus seeing only one guy as ANY possible pic.

when you have a team like the dolphins who need mcclain as
bad as 15 other players in this draft, with so many holes, it
doesnt make sense.

good thing MOST nfl teams and gm's dont set there whole draft
on one player. [see mike ditka with the saints and ricky williams]

you have to have a plan. its a MAJOR crap shoot that a clubs player
of want will be there and you have to have SEVERAL in mind. and
drafts are never so bad that there is ONLY one option [unless you
nick saban and you reach on ronnie brown believing there is NO
other talent worth the #2 over all].

i just used a lot of what you wrote in context to how so many
fans set themselves up for huge let downs falling into these
"cult like" worshipping and tunnel vision on ANY one particular
player. nfl clubs can fall into the same trap and that is the WORST
thing they could ever do!

if a person is REALLY into the draft and TRUELLY knows there
teams needs and weeknesses, you never end up with that
sort of single minded hope. there are SEVERAL players that
the finz need and are EVERY BIT WORTHY of the #12 spot
besides ROLONDO MCCLAIN.

and, if the players are gone that the club deems worthy of
the #12, the 12 spot is a real prime position to be in for
trade downs.

a draft NEVER begins or ends with one player if those following
or making the decisions are knowledgable.
Click to expand...

Well you're definitely right about how you can't have tunnel vision at #12 or #21.

However I will go ahead and disagree with you about one thing, as it relates to examples you're bringing up from 2008. That year we had the #1 overall pick. That is, quite literally, the only scenario in which you can make your decision for which guy you're getting WELL in advance.

There was nothing wrong with the idea of honing in on Glenn Dorsey way in advance...

...except that he wasn't as good as Jake Long.

And if you're yet another person that wants to come out and use the benefit of hindsight to talk about how misguided some folks (self included) were for liking Dorsey over Long so much...take a number.
 
hey nra, just because guys would like to see a specific player in aqua and orange doesn't mean we've got tunnel vision...

i'd LOVE to get dez bryant but i'm fully aware that chances aren't the best he gets to #12...and he other than berry for us is who i have the highest grade for not named suh and mccoy who are better 4-3 dt fits anyways...

and i've got a specific group of guys that i think all carry higher than or top #12 grades for me...and yes rolando mcclain is one of them...

and i know even before the combine and workouts off the game tape (and to me the tape carries by far the most weight...not some week long all star event where a guy who is very inconsistent on tape looks great) exactly where the cutoff should be to trade down once certain names come off...

i'd like to think many of these other guys who are reviewing these players and not just jumping on the hot thing have a "plan b" also...at least the ones who's opinions i value i would think do...

now give me dez bryant or bust... :lol:
 
b/t i thought dorsey was the goods...easily my #1 choice had we run a 4-3 as a dt

he just dominated the national championship game...and now he's being misused as an end in a 3-4 in kc...waste
 
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