I'm not so sure about this. Alabama's power rating is still extremely high, well within the top 4 in every major source. In fact, it is a considerable drop off to 5 and lower.
They might need one minor upset or favorable outcome to advance back into the playoffs, but it's hardly much of a long shot. Not much below 50/50. if I had to estimate.
Strength of schedule is an invention of idiots. I have no idea how the younger generations became so obsessed with that type of thing. They used it as absolute argument and can't believe anyone can dismiss it or devalue it. I have had plenty of fun parrying their simplistic attempts on college football boards the past decade or so.
The committee is looking for the 4 best teams. That has been the stated priority throughout. Best team doesn't necessarily mean the best resume. I can have the best resume and be a double digit underdog. There's going to be tons of insistence in that room that Alabama is among the four best, if they finish with one defeat.
Alabama has been excused for home defeats before. Multiple times, including at least two recent championship seasons. It has annoyed the heck out of me but not because I ever questioned whether they were among the best teams.
BTW, I guess if the Alabama defense is terrible it means Tua has carried that team and we need to adjust in that direction.
