The top 25 WRs (Yards) in 2020
1. Stefon Diggs 1535 5th(146)
2. DeAndre Hopkins 1407 1st(27)
3. Justin Jefferson 1400 1st(22)
4. Calvin Ridley 1374 1st(26)
5. DeVante Adams 1374 2nd(53)
6. DK Metcalf 1303 2nd(64)
7. Tyreek Hill 1276 5th(165)
8. Allen Robinson 1250 2nd(61)
9. DJ Moore 1193 1st(24)
10. Brandin Cooks 1150 1st(20)
11. Terry McLaurin 1118 3rd(76)
12. Amari Cooper 1114 1st(4)
13. Robby Anderson 1096 UDFA
14. AJ Brown 1075 2nd(51)
15. Tyler Lockett 1054 3rd(69)
16. Mike Evans 1006 1st(7)
17. Keenan Allen 992 3rd(76)
18. Corey Davis 984 1st(5)
19. Marvin Jones 978 5th(166)
20. Cooper Kupp 974 3rd(69)
21. Cole Beasley 967 UDFA
22. Robert Woods 936 2nd(41)
23. CeeDee Lamb 935 1st(17)
24. Adam Thielen 925 UDFA
25. Diontae Johnson 923 3rd(66)
So of the top 25 WRs in the league for this season 9 are 1st round picks. 5 are 2nd round picks. 5 are 3rd round picks. 3 are 5th round picks. 3 are undrafted free agents.
3 of these WRs were selected in the top 7 of their respective draft...
Amari Cooper 4 OVR Ranked 12th YDs
Corey Davis 5 OVR Ranked 18th YDs
Mike Evans 7 OVR Ranked 17th YDs
Only 1 of these 25 WRs have won a Super Bowl and that was Tyreek Hill just last season.
I charted these results bc obviously we are looking at the potential of drafting a WR at #3. Some have already decided to turn the card in for DeVonta Smith but after seeing these results are we sure we want to draft a WR at #3 if our goal is to win a Super Bowl? Granted its just this years worth of data but I find it quite surprising that only 1 of the top 25 WRs in football by yards have won a Super Bowl.
Will this data steer anyone away from wanting a WR at #3 so badly? What say you?
Nice post
@MiaFins31 , thanks!
IMHO, it's hard to correlate WR's and Super Bowls, because there are so many other important variables. I could see a QB to Super Bowl correlation a bit easier, but even that one is tough. The highest performing teams in any one dimension tend to be weaker in the other dimension, which doesn't bode well for reaching the Super Bowl. Great passing teams tend to have trouble if a defense can derail their passing attacks. Great running teams tend to have trouble sustaining drives if a team can outscore them or shut down the running attack and get a two score lead. Lots of teams that make the Super Bowl have good defenses, etc. So, I would not be put off by a weak WR to Super Bowl correlation.
But using the same data, what does seem apparent is that we can notice a higher propensity for solid to strong WR's in that group as opposed to pure speed guys. Guys like Stefon Diggs and Tyreek Hill are noticable exceptions, sure, but the presence of guys like Hopkins, Metcalf, Adams, etc., show a strong representation of bigger, stronger WR's. Often that aspect does not show up as clearly at the collegiate level. Also, while there are a lot of 1st rounders on that list ... there are also a very healthy number of guys who were not quite as highly regarded. Even this past year guys like Chase Claypool showed very well and was a 2nd round guy. Guys like Diggs, Jefferson, Lockett, Beasley, etc. have proven to be productive guys. From a hit or miss perspective, WR is one of those positions where there are a lot of hits outside the 1st round, as compared to the LT position or edge rushers, where the dropoff after round 1 is more extreme. There is a strong case to be made for not drafting a WR in round 1 at all, and an even stronger case against drafting a 175 lbs. WR at #3 overall. Many people will point to Diggs at the top of this list and genuinely beleive DaVonta Smith is the obvious choice ... but we might be able to find a top WR in round 2, but other positions may prove harder to fill outside of round 1.
Your point about only 3 of those guys being selected in the top 7 of their respective drafts is a good one. College has a lot of sophisticated pass-heavy offenses these days, and the WR position has become a marquee one for great athletes, so more ultra-talented kids are coming into the pros at these positions and ready to contribute from day 1. These things influence positional scarcity, pushing down the overall need to draft a WR quite as high as in the past.