Will Grier Vs. Drew Locke

[Pachyderm_Wave]

his favourite target

That's the kid people need to be looking at. I compared him to somewhat of a taller Calvin Ridley a while back with the way he runs routes. He's been fighting through a groin injury for most of the year. He's a late-ish 3rd rounder in my opinion - top 100 player.

 

[ckparrothead]

Here's a visualization of how you can think about arm strength for an NFL prospect.

View attachment 14161

The blue line is actually Drew Anderson but I'm not trying to tout him here, because in my experience Anderson just has a very typically ideal NFL starting caliber arm. He's not Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, or Matt Stafford. But he's around the level just below that.

This is really just to show you visually that Will Grier doesn't stack up. And he's not alone. That people aren't necessarily singling him out in this year's class for having a popgun arm is very telling, because so many of the rest of the guys are in the same boat.

Slimm has it right with Gardner Minshew ranked above Will Grier. They have the same arm talent and Minshew is just a better performer on game days, with a much better character/football intelligence profile.

There are two aspects of the BLUE line that deserve mention, and describe what you typically see in the ideal NFL QB prospect:

1. At that 60 to 100 foot distance ranges, you need to see average velocities in the 50+ mph range. Anything below that is a big red flag.

2. Notice how the function is concaved. This is typical of a strong-armed player that is putting NFL caliber throws on tape at the college level. Guys with NFL caliber arms can maintain that 50 mph average velocity as you stretch out the distance longer and longer. But at some point, velocity breaks downward more steeply because the players have to really ARC the football high in order to get to that distance. The later that inflection point occurs, the more ideal the guy's arm strength is.

One difference between a Drew Anderson and a Carson Wentz, for example, is that I've seen Carson Wentz maintain 49 mph terrestrial speed even on a 140+ foot throw. I haven't seen that of Anderson. Doesn't mean it can't happen. It's just not on tape. That's what private workouts are for.

 

[Geordie]

Here's a visualization of how you can think about arm strength for an NFL prospect.




The blue line is actually Drew Anderson but I'm not trying to tout him here, because in my experience Anderson just has a very typically ideal NFL starting caliber arm. He's not Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, or Matt Stafford. But he's around the level just below that.

This is really just to show you visually that Will Grier doesn't stack up. And he's not alone. That people aren't necessarily singling him out in this year's class for having a popgun arm is very telling, because so many of the rest of the guys are in the same boat.

Slimm has it right with Gardner Minshew ranked above Will Grier. They have the same arm talent and Minshew is just a better performer on game days, with a much better character/football intelligence profile.

There are two aspects of the BLUE line that deserve mention, and describe what you typically see in the ideal NFL QB prospect:

1. At that 60 to 100 foot distance ranges, you need to see average velocities in the 50+ mph range. Anything below that is a big red flag.

2. Notice how the function is concaved. This is typical of a strong-armed player that is putting NFL caliber throws on tape at the college level. Guys with NFL caliber arms can maintain that 50 mph average velocity as you stretch out the distance longer and longer. But at some point, velocity breaks downward more steeply because the players have to really ARC the football high in order to get to that distance. The later that inflection point occurs, the more ideal the guy's arm strength is.

One difference between a Drew Anderson and a Carson Wentz, for example, is that I've seen Carson Wentz maintain 49 mph terrestrial speed even on a 140+ foot throw. I haven't seen that of Anderson. Doesn't mean it can't happen. It's just not on tape. That's what private workouts are for.

I hear you on Grier, he's lighting it up again today 47 pts atm. But the arm strength isn't there. I asked you about Minshew earlier in the season after the Oregon game, he was awesome in that game, both these kids look like they have the game right in the head, they are both winners but lack the arm talent. Can you get by with that in a Gase offense ? It's really not built around the big plays (some would argue it's not built around anything, lol :)). Short quick passes and good decisions is what makes his offense tick along. I dunno I'm conflicted on both these guys. I get the arm talent concerns though, they are real.

 

[ckparrothead]

It's a valid question, about how much arm strength you really NEED at the next level, for example in an Adam Gase offense.

Obviously Jay Fiedler was able to enjoy some amount of success with Miami, regardless of how much he's panned. I never worked up Chad Pennington because it was generally agreed he had a really weak arm so I didn't bother. He had off-and-on success at the NFL level. By the time Adam Gase had Peyton Manning, post-neck surgery, I'm not sure how much velocity you could count on from him.

I've done workups of Will Grier compared to three quarterbacks who are reputed to have 'weak' arm strength among NFL starters, those being Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Teddy Bridgewater. I haven't quite gotten to DeShaun Watson yet, as that's the fourth one I commonly see cited by people on twitter who get all hurt when I start criticizing Will Grier.

I can tell you that versus the above three, Watson notwithstanding (we'll see), there's no comparison. All three have unqualified superior arm strength to Grier at all levels, every depth. And not insignificantly so. I think I've seen perhaps one or two Will Grier throws that have out-paced the very WEAKEST throws from one or two of the above players, on a similar distance...but only just so. The three produce much better velocity on a general basis, and when they really get all of a throw, their maximums are far and away better than anything I've seen Grier produce. Brady's maximums are at the ideal NFL starter level; Drew Anderson level.

Does that mean Will Grier is destined to fail as a pro? Probably. But you can't say that with certainty, obviously.

What would it look like for him to succeed? The thing you notice with the guys that have a little bit weaker arms is they're absolute EXPERTS in dropping the football into discrete zone vacancies between the numbers. It's touch and accuracy, but it's also an acute sense of timing, the ability to read a defense and instantly know what is going to pop open. You see enough of Tom Brady and Drew Brees not even bothering to use the arm strength they do have, because they're so good at this. Peyton Manning was an expert there, obviously.

Could I see Gardner Minshew getting there? Yeah. I could see that. He's a good thrower of the football, really good spin, good process, he's accurate, consistent. He's got that coaches mentality. Great character. It is really legit possible with him.

Do I see that being Will Grier's game? No. He's a gunslinger without a gun.

 

[ckparrothead]

Let me be clear about something, I don't believe DeShaun Watson has a weak arm. I never have. People bring that up to me when I discuss Will Grier primarily because Watson showed up at the Combine and had a dreadful radar gun reading, I believe 49 mph where other guys were getting 59 mph or 61 mph, etc...which only goes to show me why it can be foolish to put too much store in those radar readings.

I just clocked a throw of Watson's that tells me *everything* I need to know about the argument put forth by people about Watson's arm strength and velocity.

This is not the throw of a weak armed quarterback (minute 3:15 mark)

 

[Geordie]

It's a valid question, about how much arm strength you really NEED at the next level, for example in an Adam Gase offense.

Obviously Jay Fiedler was able to enjoy some amount of success with Miami, regardless of how much he's panned. I never worked up Chad Pennington because it was generally agreed he had a really weak arm so I didn't bother. He had off-and-on success at the NFL level. By the time Adam Gase had Peyton Manning, post-neck surgery, I'm not sure how much velocity you could count on from him.

I've done workups of Will Grier compared to three quarterbacks who are reputed to have 'weak' arm strength among NFL starters, those being Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Teddy Bridgewater. I haven't quite gotten to DeShaun Watson yet, as that's the fourth one I commonly see cited by people on twitter who get all hurt when I start criticizing Will Grier.

I can tell you that versus the above three, Watson notwithstanding (we'll see), there's no comparison. All three have unqualified superior arm strength to Grier at all levels, every depth. And not insignificantly so. I think I've seen perhaps one or two Will Grier throws that have out-paced the very WEAKEST throws from one or two of the above players, on a similar distance...but only just so. The three produce much better velocity on a general basis, and when they really get all of a throw, their maximums are far and away better than anything I've seen Grier produce. Brady's maximums are at the ideal NFL starter level; Drew Anderson level.

Does that mean Will Grier is destined to fail as a pro? Probably. But you can't say that with certainty, obviously.

What would it look like for him to succeed? The thing you notice with the guys that have a little bit weaker arms is they're absolute EXPERTS in dropping the football into discrete zone vacancies between the numbers. It's touch and accuracy, but it's also an acute sense of timing, the ability to read a defense and instantly know what is going to pop open. You see enough of Tom Brady and Drew Brees not even bothering to use the arm strength they do have, because they're so good at this. Peyton Manning was an expert there, obviously.

Could I see Gardner Minshew getting there? Yeah. I could see that. He's a good thrower of the football, really good spin, good process, he's accurate, consistent. He's got that coaches mentality. Great character. It is really legit possible with him.

Do I see that being Will Grier's game? No. He's a gunslinger without a gun.

Thanks man, as always love your analysis of these guys and the way you make folks like me feel more educated after reading the write ups. I've officially moved now from the Grier love boat to the Minshew one. Any kind of idea if a) Minshew will even declare for the draft ? and b) which round will he most likely go ?

 

[ckparrothead]

Thanks man, as always love your analysis of these guys and the way you make folks like me feel more educated after reading the write ups. I've officially moved now from the Grier love boat to the Minshew one. Any kind of idea if a) Minshew will even declare for the draft ? and b) which round will he most likely go ?

I don't think Gardner Minshew has a choice. He's either got to become a coach or go to the NFL.

Don't underestimate the chances of him choosing the former, if he doesn't like the grades he hears from NFL scouts. He was about to become a coach at Alabama, despite having a year of eligibility remaining to him, when he decided to take Mike Leach up on an offer to try starting one last time at Washington State. He's become a sensation there, so I don't think he regrets that choice.

I don't know what round he will go in because the bottom line is he doesn't have an arm. I don't know that the NFL takes those guys all that seriously.

But in this draft they probably don't have a choice, because (underclassmen notwithstanding) unless they're getting hold of Drew Lock, Drew Anderson, or Easton Stick, then you're not getting that ideal, typical NFL starter caliber arm (NOTE: I still have to work up Clayton Thorson, Nick Fitzgerald, Jordan Ta'amu, and Kyle Shurmur).

 

[mrbunglez]

I don't think Gardner Minshew has a choice. He's either got to become a coach or go to the NFL.

Don't underestimate the chances of him choosing the former, if he doesn't like the grades he hears from NFL scouts. He was about to become a coach at Alabama, despite having a year of eligibility remaining to him, when he decided to take Mike Leach up on an offer to try starting one last time at Washington State. He's become a sensation there, so I don't think he regrets that choice.

I don't know what round he will go in because the bottom line is he doesn't have an arm. I don't know that the NFL takes those guys all that seriously.

But in this draft they probably don't have a choice, because (underclassmen notwithstanding) unless they're getting hold of Drew Lock, Drew Anderson, or Easton Stick, then you're not getting that ideal, typical NFL starter caliber arm (NOTE: I still have to work up Clayton Thorson, Nick Fitzgerald, Jordan Ta'amu, and Kyle Shurmur).

I would really like to see what you think of Jordan Ta’amu.

 

[ckparrothead]

I like Ta'amu. I think I decided to work up a handful of his throws to see what we're talking about in terms of velocity, and I didn't necessarily love what I found. But it wasn't a full workup. Same with Clayton Thorson as I recall. I'm reluctant to work up Nick Fitzgerald because, does it matter? But then, yeah I guess it does. You want to know which players the NFL will push up because of arm strength.

 

[Geordie]

I like Ta'amu. I think I decided to work up a handful of his throws to see what we're talking about in terms of velocity, and I didn't necessarily love what I found. But it wasn't a full workup. Same with Clayton Thorson as I recall. I'm reluctant to work up Nick Fitzgerald because, does it matter? But then, yeah I guess it does. You want to know which players the NFL will push up because of arm strength.

Using Josh Allen as a barometer here, are any of these guys in that mould of having the physicals tools to do the job but without the tape to back it up, so they end up getting drafted probably higher than they should ?

 

[ckparrothead]

Easton Stick's arm could cure cancer.

I am absolutely floored by how this little waif of a man can do this with that arm.

 

[The Closer]

It's a valid question, about how much arm strength you really NEED at the next level, for example in an Adam Gase offense.

Obviously Jay Fiedler was able to enjoy some amount of success with Miami, regardless of how much he's panned. I never worked up Chad Pennington because it was generally agreed he had a really weak arm so I didn't bother. He had off-and-on success at the NFL level. By the time Adam Gase had Peyton Manning, post-neck surgery, I'm not sure how much velocity you could count on from him.

I've done workups of Will Grier compared to three quarterbacks who are reputed to have 'weak' arm strength among NFL starters, those being Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Teddy Bridgewater. I haven't quite gotten to DeShaun Watson yet, as that's the fourth one I commonly see cited by people on twitter who get all hurt when I start criticizing Will Grier.

I can tell you that versus the above three, Watson notwithstanding (we'll see), there's no comparison. All three have unqualified superior arm strength to Grier at all levels, every depth. And not insignificantly so. I think I've seen perhaps one or two Will Grier throws that have out-paced the very WEAKEST throws from one or two of the above players, on a similar distance...but only just so. The three produce much better velocity on a general basis, and when they really get all of a throw, their maximums are far and away better than anything I've seen Grier produce. Brady's maximums are at the ideal NFL starter level; Drew Anderson level.

Does that mean Will Grier is destined to fail as a pro? Probably. But you can't say that with certainty, obviously.

What would it look like for him to succeed? The thing you notice with the guys that have a little bit weaker arms is they're absolute EXPERTS in dropping the football into discrete zone vacancies between the numbers. It's touch and accuracy, but it's also an acute sense of timing, the ability to read a defense and instantly know what is going to pop open. You see enough of Tom Brady and Drew Brees not even bothering to use the arm strength they do have, because they're so good at this. Peyton Manning was an expert there, obviously.

Could I see Gardner Minshew getting there? Yeah. I could see that. He's a good thrower of the football, really good spin, good process, he's accurate, consistent. He's got that coaches mentality. Great character. It is really legit possible with him.

Do I see that being Will Grier's game? No. He's a gunslinger without a gun.

Arm strength is coached up all the time in the NFL when young QBs enter the league. Even when Aaron Rodgers entered the league he had a funky hitch in his delivery. A-Rod fixed that, and can do it all and throw over 90 yrds, if he NEEDS to

Will Grier has the "IT FACTOR" that all of us Dolphans have wanted since Dan Marino.

 

[ckparrothead]

Mechanics get tightened up. Arm strength doesn't necessarily improve significantly.

Aaron Rodgers was throwing verified 52-54 mph passes at the COLLEGE level, at NFL distances, and was throwing at 46 mph on big time 50 yard throws (hence criticism that his deep ball was too low trajectory where some are convinced that deep balls need to float).

To get from where Will Grier currently is to a MINIMUM level that Will Grier would need to be at the NFL level...is just unthinkable. Hey I guess there's a first time for everything though, right? Just don't bet on it.

 

[BIGTom-]

Mechanics get tightened up. Arm strength doesn't necessarily improve significantly.

Aaron Rodgers was throwing verified 52-54 mph passes at the COLLEGE level, at NFL distances, and was throwing at 46 mph on big time 50 yard throws (hence criticism that his deep ball was too low trajectory where some are convinced that deep balls need to float).

To get from where Will Grier currently is to a MINIMUM level that Will Grier would need to be at the NFL level...is just unthinkable. Hey I guess there's a first time for everything though, right? Just don't bet on it.

Thanks for all the insight ck. Just wondering, how are you able to evaluate the velocity of the college QB throws? I was thinking those things were officially measured in the combine? Or is it "eye-ball" test? Just hoping to better understand thank you sir

 

[ckparrothead]

Thanks for all the insight ck. Just wondering, how are you able to evaluate the velocity of the college QB throws? I was thinking those things were officially measured in the combine? Or is it "eye-ball" test? Just hoping to better understand thank you sir

The Combine measurement involves a radar gun put in just the right spot to do a point measurement on an out route. I have issues with that, as it's extremely specific, and from a physics standpoint a football throw is significantly different from a baseball throw. It's a good data point to have, as all well-measured data points are good data points, but people get a bit religious about it sometimes and that's how you get folks believing that DeShaun Watson has a weak arm when he has nothing of the sort.

As for the college measurements I do, as well as the pro measurements, sophisticated video and graphics editing software and techniques that I've developed over the years make it quite a bit more than just an "eye-ball" test, though I will admit that there is SOME amount of room on the very margin for judgment, and like anything, that judgment is going to be better when informed by long hours and long years of experience. Which I have.