Without Tannehill, We'd be the Browns (In-depth research)

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Aqua4Ever04, Jan 10, 2018.

  1. Aqua4Ever04

    Aqua4Ever04 FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    Adam GaSe (with an S) took the job because he had a franchise QB. He said as much.
     
  2. J. David Wannyheimer

    J. David Wannyheimer Tape Guys vs Analytics Guys Finheaven VIP Donator

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    I think Adam Gase probably took the job because Miami offered him a lot of money, control over his staff, and yeah, the quarterback situation is a win-win for him. He inherited one of the most talented veteran quarterbacks in the NFL and if he wins with him, he gets credit for 'fixing' the quarterback. If he doesn't win with him, he can blame the QB and draft a new quarterback.
     
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  3. Aqua4Ever04

    Aqua4Ever04 FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    Lol. Extensive work. Dolphins record is X, therefore the QB is Y.

    Really in depth.
     
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  4. Aqua4Ever04

    Aqua4Ever04 FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    I know he gives a lot of lip service during his PCs, but he said as much multiple times.
     
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  5. J. David Wannyheimer

    J. David Wannyheimer Tape Guys vs Analytics Guys Finheaven VIP Donator

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    I try not to read anything into positive statements Gase makes about players, for the simple fact that Gase goes to extraordinary lengths to shield his players most of the time. On the few occasions that Gase has publicly called out a player or really been in any way negative about them, I think it indicated an extreme level of dissatisfaction.

    Specifically, I'm thinking of the post-Baltimore callout (of Ajayi and presumably Landry) and the post-Buffalo callout of Jay Cutler. In the former case, we know that Gase was at his wit's end and that a player was essentially being insubordinate. In the latter case, Cutler was so bad that he singlehandedly eliminated the Dolphins from playoff contention in a very winnable football game.

    In the former case, we saw Ajayi traded a few days later, and there were rumors that Landry went on the block too. In the latter case, Miami made it clear that they had no interest in bringing Cutler back to compete for the starting job pretty much immediately afterward. Gase was only willing to publicly express dissatisfaction with a player when he'd reached the breaking point with them.
     
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  6. Aqua4Ever04

    Aqua4Ever04 FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    IN 2016, I launched a website where I graded every QB and every throw (sans QBs that didn't start a qualifying amount of games). I did write-ups, and had my own ranking system on them.

    That website is here: http://www.thirdand10.com/

    I made it 6 weeks into 2017 but had to put a stop to the project because I started working more hours and just didn't have time.

    I've written other pieces with GIFs and scouting reports:

    This is the one everybody seemed to love:

    http://www.thirdand10.com/tannehill-era/

    Another one about the difference between Cutler and Tannehill

    https://www.lockedondolphins.com/tannehill-savior/

    Here's one I did comparing QBs pre and post 30th birthday

    https://www.lockedondolphins.com/qbs-better-with-age/



    For bonus, here's a piece I did mid-season about why Miami should go from Cutler to Moore.

    http://www.thirdand10.com/wewantmoore/
     
  7. hoops

    hoops exited stage left Hammered

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    cutler eliminated you well before that
     
  8. J. David Wannyheimer

    J. David Wannyheimer Tape Guys vs Analytics Guys Finheaven VIP Donator

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    Yeah, you can admit "I stopped doing it in 2017 because I didn't have the heart to watch All-22 of Jay Cutler air mailing Kenny Stills when he was ten yards open."
     
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  9. hoops

    hoops exited stage left Hammered

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    thanks. I will be sure to check these out. full disclosure I will probably skip the bonus piece cause I know that wasn't going anywhere regardless
     
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  10. Aqua4Ever04

    Aqua4Ever04 FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    Haha that part definitely, but I meant watching EVERY QB dropback. I did it for 6 weeks into 2017.
     
  11. Vaark

    Vaark Nihil taurus crappus Finheaven VIP Donator

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    He actually said it initially and then mid season, when he had no impetus to defend himself, he volunteered it again. But why let facts get in the way of a nurturing narrative, eh?
     
  12. hoops

    hoops exited stage left Hammered

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    would you agree op on tape study that qb execution in Miami was the biggest flaw in 2017?

    the elephant in the room
     
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  13. FSU Truth

    FSU Truth Taggart is my Homeboy Finheaven VIP

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    Is that even debatable?
     
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  14. J. David Wannyheimer

    J. David Wannyheimer Tape Guys vs Analytics Guys Finheaven VIP Donator

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    I think you can make the case that early in the season, we also had issues with our offense being dumbed down and predictable.

    I put that one on Gase. If he was having that much trouble trying to keep Ajayi as the feature back while running the offense he wanted to run, he should have figured out sooner that he needed to move on from Ajayi.
     
  15. FSU Truth

    FSU Truth Taggart is my Homeboy Finheaven VIP

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    I agree with that...and obviously, other factors play into it, but Cutler's dead arm was issue number 1 for most of the season.
     
  16. Aqua4Ever04

    Aqua4Ever04 FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    By a mile. I do think we had serious flaws on the other end of it too. For as much as everyone loves Landry, he doesn't create a lot of separation and he was struggling early. Then you've got Devante Parker who is a total waste of space. Never see a more gifted athlete that struggles so much against single coverage.

    The most puzzling thing I've run into with Gase is the tight ends he has rolled with. It's a CRUCIAL part to this scheme and those 3x1 sets. Getting a match-up piece in that Y iso position could do wonders for this offense, yet he settled on Jordan Cameron and Julius THomas. It's weird.

    But yes, Cutler was a mechanical nightmare and a really poor decision maker. You could tell he was playing for his own protection first and foremost - the antithesis of Ryan Tannehill. To bail out at the first sight of pressure was maddening. He missed sooooo many easy throws, and you can trace it all back to the footwork.

    We were lucky that we won 6 games. Matt Moore saved us in the Jets game, obviously, and we should've lost the Chargers game as well.

    Our offense was really that of a 3-13 type of outfit. Hell, if Mariota plays, we lose that game too. We won by 6 and scored a defensive TD.
     
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  17. Ilovemyfins4eva

    Ilovemyfins4eva A True Fan Donator

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    do all the analytical work u want, but to imply that without tannehill, we are like the cleveland browns is absurd. as awful as avg to below avg we have been over the past 20 or so years, we are not the cleveland browns without tannehill, which is what the title of your thread was
     
  18. Lovethefish

    Lovethefish Well-Known Member

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    This is a great point.
    How many times did we see Gase try to isolate ancient looking J thomas on the outside. It was forced, exhausting and ineffective.
    I have to believe they saw it worked in practice... against Kiko.
     
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  19. hoops

    hoops exited stage left Hammered

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    How many times was cutler unable to throw the ball where the coverage or leverage said it should be when isoed?

    He either lead Thomas out of bounds with the throw when he had the ss stacked or underthrew the ball or you name it.

    He took away the stack just about every time with a crap throw

    Hell the best deep ball throw all year was provided by fales on a back shoulder vertical to dvp.

    Cutler was an absolute mess

    And don’t get me started on shoulder placement in the screen game for max rac. That was horrid
     
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  20. Aqua4Ever04

    Aqua4Ever04 FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    I have. And I will. This was the third worst scoring output a Miami offense has ever had. It was atrocious. It kept our defense on the field way too long and made them wear out very early.

    If we didn't get a missed 45 yarder (which is about 85% in the NFL) and if we didn't get lucky enough to have Marcus Mariota get hurt before our game, we'd have been 4-12. And before these last two years, that's where the Browns were. So, hence the title, we were pretty close to being associated with one of the worst teams in the NFL.

    Hell, we were neck-in-neck with them in point differential.

    We were bad. Really, really bad. That's what happens when you go from a good quarterback to an awful one.
     
  21. hoops

    hoops exited stage left Hammered

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    http://www.thirdand10.com/tannehill-era/


    I had seen this before. In fact I remember saying after I went through it it was the most accurate and in line with what the analysis should be work I had seen on the qb at any point.

    One or 2 plays a game where tanny doesn’t execute as the qb to the extent of what he is asked to do. Not 10 or more like I found on repeat with jay cutler. Full disclosure I didn’t have jay cutler with one top 5 for the game miami grade all season. How many games you expect to win in this league when the qb doesn’t grade out top 5 even at doing what he’s asked to do? A league driven by qb play and execution and we are leaving plays all over the field.

    Anyways I saw you referenced cinci game as one where tanny carried a poor grade. I totally agreed with that although I thought in the second half he didn’t have much of a chance. He left plays on the field in the first half while the game was in the balance.

    The Baltimore game as I recall one of those ints he was hit on the release effecting the trajectory the other I blame the play call cause that throw to dvp doesn’t allow him in his drop to hold that safety the drop is too short relative to the field so he can’t hold that safety allowing the safety to make a freak play admittedly and drive on it running under dvps outstretched arms.

    The 3rd int as I recall was very late in the game and the result of him losing head and eye discipline in his drop allowing the cover 2 corner to flow underneath of it. I called it hurry up and get me out of here mental lapse.

    I am surprised that earlier you said cutlers decision making was poor. Pre? Post...or both? I didn’t really get that vibe but I did at the quarter point come on here and say after analyzing those tapes that cutlers mentality was “don’t touch me” as in I’m avoiding contact at all cost.

    For my money his footwork has always been a mess he’s relied on his cannon arm to bail out mechanics except those 40 yard flat footed ropes no more than 10 feet off the ground are no longer there even if his gunslinger mentality is. Ironically after he got hurt with the ribs on about as routine a tackle as you will ever see a qb take no less once he returned I felt like he was a little less gun shy not where he needed to be obviously but not I’m not taking contact period. Although some of that was I think gase forcing him as a play caller to stand in with 3 step drop stuff etc and working away from the longer developing 5 and 7 step stuff that was a big part of our game with tannehill not to mention all the timing based routes that seemed to just go out the window. I guess that’s to be expected when you bail at first sign of color.

    Anyways what was really telling for me was how the opposition played us with and without Ajayi. 10 man boxes make your qb beat us we know he can’t with jay and 2 deep with drake. The only thing we ended up doing was changing the emphasis of the o and how teams played us but the elephant in the room was there regardless.

    The qb play was no bueno and our guaranteed one way ticket to the offseason.
     
    Last edited: Jan 11, 2018
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  22. Ilovemyfins4eva

    Ilovemyfins4eva A True Fan Donator

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    we can play the what if game with every team. if u want to play that game, last year if codey parkey dosent miss any of his 3 chip shot fgs with cleveland vs miami, we start 0-5 last year, if kenyon drake dosent return a kickoff return for i think it was 96 yds last year vs the jets, we most likely lose that game also.

    i am not arguing how awful cutler was, he was awful and i never wanted him here. what i am saying is that even with tannehill, our offense is not special by any means , and with tannehill we have never won more than 8 games in a season, and with have won less in 2 of the 5 seasons. this year despite the awful qb play, we still won 6, which is around what the dolphins normally win most years, 6,7,8, games with or without ryan. That is all i was saying.

    And here is what the dolphins are avg pts wise with tannehill as qb every season thus far

    2012- 18 ppg, as a team, but 17.2 with tannehill in 15 games ( he left the dolphin jet game early in the 1st when the score was 0-0, and we scored 30 which inflated our ppg avg because it was so low. - ranked 27th in nfl in ppg
    2013-19.8 ppg- ranked 26th in ppg
    2014-24.2 ppg- ranked 11th ( only season in top half in ppg)
    2015-19.4 ppg- ranked 27th
    2016-22.1 ppg , in the 13 games started by ryan, we avg 21.6 ppg.- ranked 19th

    in 2017 with cutler we were ranked 28th, which as u can see above, is really not much worse than in 2012, 2013 or 2015. only season we ranked high with ryan was 2014.

    so yes, we are ''better'' with ryan than cutler obviously, but our offense has been nowhere near good in the only thing that counts, which is the scoreboard, with ryan either.
     
  23. Lovethefish

    Lovethefish Well-Known Member

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    Im ok giving Gase pass due to the Horrid QB play. He was hamstrung for sure.
     
  24. DolfanDuBbZ~

    DolfanDuBbZ~ Avoid the 'Noid

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    The logical case is the product on the field. The logical case is the consistent inconsistency of the players on the roster, the game planning and adjustments and the mediocre results that soon follow.

    We don't need data sheets or film to make the case. We can see with our own eyes the train wreck that due to recent history is sure to follow. Sadly, Tannehill to a lot here is untouchable. And sadly, the FO agrees while doing next to nothing to allow him to sink or swim with a decent oline.
     
  25. Liphinphan

    Liphinphan FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    Here is the problem. What you see clearly with your own eyes is different than what others see. If that is all you offer as logic or fact, it's neither. Stats, breakdown of plays, other respected opinions help in backing your opinion. If all you say is he clearly sucks, or he is untouchable to many on here or other blanket statements, it's only how you actually feel about it, not a fact or consensus . Which is fine, its a message board, but it is far from factual
     
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  26. DolfanDuBbZ~

    DolfanDuBbZ~ Avoid the 'Noid

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    Your right I should have put a and/or in there for you. The premise remains the same in either case. Being you and others continue on the one hand to stand by Tannehill, while advocating the same BS year in and year out...expecting a different outcome.
     
  27. DolfanDuBbZ~

    DolfanDuBbZ~ Avoid the 'Noid

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    What's factual is the end result.
     
  28. roy_miami

    roy_miami 2020 cant get here soon enough Donator

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    1. we weren't neck and neck with them

    2. We've only been in the positive territory in point differential with Tannehill one season, and we barely squeaked in the positive at +1 (2014)

    3. Jacksonville went from -5 to +9, same QB both seasons.
     
  29. Liphinphan

    Liphinphan FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    Agreed. The stuff in between, on personal feelings about certain players or coaches that is tried to be passed off as fact, is not.
     
  30. roy_miami

    roy_miami 2020 cant get here soon enough Donator

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    passing offense.png
     
  31. EvilDylan

    EvilDylan Banned Hammered Donator

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    LOL @ propping Bortles to marginalize Tannehill.

    Do you understand how defense works?
     
  32. Liphinphan

    Liphinphan FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    Yep, no need to discuss further. All any evaluator needs Roy. That graph. Do they have one like that for coaches? Is that how you came to the philbin conclusion? Is that how you came to your conclusion on RT?
     
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  33. roy_miami

    roy_miami 2020 cant get here soon enough Donator

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    Maybe you should go read the entire back and forth, or do you just not know how arguments work?
     
  34. DolfanDuBbZ~

    DolfanDuBbZ~ Avoid the 'Noid

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    Feelings do cloud thought. Ones bias does to.
     
  35. Vaark

    Vaark Nihil taurus crappus Finheaven VIP Donator

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    End Result is that
    from 13-14, Matt Ryan already with 5 years under his belt and with WRs and a GOAT TE (for '13) won 6 less games than did Tannehill with one year in - and we all know what he had to work with and through

    from '12-'15 basically same scenarios, Tannehill won 4 more games than Ryan
    That must mean that Tannehill with less to work with, and that many more wins was the better QB, because "end results matter." right!
     
  36. Aqua4Ever04

    Aqua4Ever04 FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    1. Yep. Sure were.

    2. Cool story. That's the point. This team sucks. We'd be a lot worse without a good QB.

    3. The team improved. Unless you think Bortles is a good player, which wouldn't surprise me.
     
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  37. Aqua4Ever04

    Aqua4Ever04 FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    You can throw as many team stats out as you want, and try to blame them on Tannehill. I'll blame it on the worst collective offensive line over the course of five years in the NFL - and skill players that are well below average.

    Hell, look at Seattle. Their offense sucks. Do you think they blame it on Wilson?
     
  38. roy_miami

    roy_miami 2020 cant get here soon enough Donator

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    LOL. You were right earlier, I might as well be arguing with myself.

    You (on point differential): thats what happens when you go from a good QB to a bad QB
    Me: what about Bortles and the Jags
    You: thats what happens when you go from a bad team to a good team...

    So which is it?
     
  39. Ilovemyfins4eva

    Ilovemyfins4eva A True Fan Donator

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    u go ahead and do that. its what most tannehill apologists do, its everyone but him.

    u were the one who stated how awful our offense was with cutler this year ( and u were right) and that is what we get without tannehill out there.

    what the numbers show, is that in 4 of the 5 seasons with tannehill starting, we finished in the bottom half of ppg amongst the 32 nfl teams, and in 3 of those 5 seasons, we basically finished in ppg where we finished without him this year.

    Also, tannehill is nowhere near wilsons level. only on this site can people come up with a reason as to how they are pretty much at the same level.
     
  40. Ilovemyfins4eva

    Ilovemyfins4eva A True Fan Donator

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    this is where u are wrong. aside from the 2007 season when we went 1-15, and 2008 when we went 11-5, we have been winning anywhere between 6 and 10 games since the 2009 season, no matter who the qb was, and we have gone through a ton of ****ty qbs

    heck with chad henne at qb in 09 we finished 7-9, and in 2010 and 2011 we went 6-10. with tannehill we have had 1 season worse than that, and 1 season the same, followed by 2 8-8 seasons, and an incomplete for 2016, because we could have finished 8-8 or 11-5, will never know.

    u want to talk about a team that drops off significantly without there starting qb, look at gb. started 4-1, finished 3-8 once rodgers went down. that is a difference maker at qb, not ours.
     
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