WR or OL? OL, and Here's Why

[infiltrateib]

1) Effectiveness/Value to the Team

What does Evans/Woods/Jenkins bring to the table? A fine WR, with the possibility of being a great WR, relegated to the role of 3rd WR. There is no way a rookie beats out Chambers/Boston. And Dave has already said we're not going to use that many 3WR sets. Sure, they'd be an upgrade on D. Thompson, but how much does it hurt us to just use DT instead? Say we're in 3WR formation 6 times a game. Say we pass on 4 of them. How many of those are balls to our 3rd WR? 1? 2?

How much will Andrews/Smiley be in? Likely 100% of the offensive snaps. Andrews would be a HUGE improvement to our right side (run blocking). Basically, by drafting a T like Andrews, you replace the worst of the remaining options (whoever they may be... Whitley, St. Clair, McIntosh). It would be a mammoth upgrade over last year's OL and they affect everything we do on offense.

2) The Future?

DBos and Chambers are set in stone. Boston has something to prove and he will likely be around. At 230, he'll be less injury-prone (not that he had that many injury problems last year) and he's got his head in the game as far as the weight room is concerned. He'll show up on Sundays. I fully expect us to lock up Chambers long-term either at the end of this offseason or by mid-season. He's the real deal and Rick has already alluded to him staying in Miami. Boston is very affordable, and I expect him to show up. Unless he falls prey to attitude or injury (which is a possibility, but IMO not that high of a possibility), we're all set on WR for right now.

3) Message

What sort of message does it send to our current WR or the new guy coming in if he's a first round draft pick riding the pine for 85% of the offensive snaps, with no real prospect of starting (considering the young talent we already have at WR). What first round pick wants to do that? WRs want to make a difference. With the exception of Evans, I don't see a good fit. And don't make the mistake of thinking rookies don't make that much money... at #20, it won't be a tiny contract. We'll be paying a 3rd WR a bit of money. A little more than Jamar Fletcher money.

4) Smokescreen

I have a sneaking suspicion that Rick might be talking up the WRs to see who falls and paint us as a team not focused on OL. If everyone knows we're going OL, they know where they have to trade up to in order to nab our player. We can't show our cards. If the FO said "we love Shawn Andrews and will take him" the Patriots might just move up 2 spots. We can't have that.

They've already stated that they can get last year's second round WR talent with a 3rd-4th round pick. Do we NEED to spend a top 20 pick on a WR at this point? If Andrews is there, take him. If Smiley is there, trade down and pick up another (3rd or so) pick. Then grab a WR we can pay less and is still overqualified for the 3rd WR position.

5) Depth of Draft

This ties into the other points, but this is one of the best WR crops in years. Why not wait and pluck out the 10th or so best WR? The OL in this year's draft is NOT deep. If we have a chance to get Andrews or Smiley, we jump on it. WR can be addressed later.

6) JR Tolver

Not a big deal, but I want to see what this kid can do. With a rookie 3rd WR, he'll never see the field.

 

[TheBostonBomber]

nice post

 

[DannyNoonan]

inf: very well written. I agree we need help on the OL. However, we may be in a position tomorrow afternoon where we are on the clock, no other team is willing to trade with us (or at least give us close to market value for pick #20), and the BPA is clearly a WR. Do we still draft an OLman?

 

[KB21]

1) Effectiveness/Value to the Team

What does Evans/Woods/Jenkins bring to the table? A fine WR, with the possibility of being a great WR, relegated to the role of 3rd WR. There is no way a rookie beats out Chambers/Boston. And Dave has already said we're not going to use that many 3WR sets. Sure, they'd be an upgrade on D. Thompson, but how much does it hurt us to just use DT instead? Say we're in 3WR formation 6 times a game. Say we pass on 4 of them. How many of those are balls to our 3rd WR? 1? 2?

How much will Andrews/Smiley be in? Likely 100% of the offensive snaps. Andrews would be a HUGE improvement to our right side (run blocking). Basically, by drafting a T like Andrews, you replace the worst of the remaining options (whoever they may be... Whitley, St. Clair, McIntosh). It would be a mammoth upgrade over last year's OL and they affect everything we do on offense.

This is the exact same reasoning the Dolphins used when they took Jamar Fletcher over Kendrell Bell in the 2001 draft. The reason was that the nickle back would be on the field more than the starting strongside linebacker. It is this line of thinking that will make you pass on the better player.

2) The Future?

DBos and Chambers are set in stone. Boston has something to prove and he will likely be around. At 230, he'll be less injury-prone (not that he had that many injury problems last year) and he's got his head in the game as far as the weight room is concerned. He'll show up on Sundays. I fully expect us to lock up Chambers long-term either at the end of this offseason or by mid-season. He's the real deal and Rick has already alluded to him staying in Miami. Boston is very affordable, and I expect him to show up. Unless he falls prey to attitude or injury (which is a possibility, but IMO not that high of a possibility), we're all set on WR for right now.

Actually, David Boston has been an unreliable player his entire career to date, and Chris Chambers is a free agent after the season. You can't consider either player to be part of the future at this time. If Boston goes off the deep end again, and Chambers chooses not to sign a long term deal, then Miami has no options to replace either and will be forced to overspend to get a receiver.

3) Message

What sort of message does it send to our current WR or the new guy coming in if he's a first round draft pick riding the pine for 85% of the offensive snaps, with no real prospect of starting (considering the young talent we already have at WR). What first round pick wants to do that? WRs want to make a difference. With the exception of Evans, I don't see a good fit. And don't make the mistake of thinking rookies don't make that much money... at #20, it won't be a tiny contract. We'll be paying a 3rd WR a bit of money. A little more than Jamar Fletcher money.

The message it sends is that we are doing what it takes to get this passing offense to the level it needs to be at for this team to get to the Superbowl. In the same sense, what message does drafting an offensive lineman send when you spent two third round picks on linemen last year and then got two free agents to sign this year? What does Damion McIntosh think if Miami takes Andrews after they signed him to a 6 year deal? What does John St. Clair think after he signed with Miami because he was told he would compete for the starting spot?

4) Smokescreen

I have a sneaking suspicion that Rick might be talking up the WRs to see who falls and paint us as a team not focused on OL. If everyone knows we're going OL, they know where they have to trade up to in order to nab our player. We can't show our cards. If the FO said "we love Shawn Andrews and will take him" the Patriots might just move up 2 spots. We can't have that.

They've already stated that they can get last year's second round WR talent with a 3rd-4th round pick. Do we NEED to spend a top 20 pick on a WR at this point? If Andrews is there, take him. If Smiley is there, trade down and pick up another (3rd or so) pick. Then grab a WR we can pay less and is still overqualified for the 3rd WR position.

5) Depth of Draft

This ties into the other points, but this is one of the best WR crops in years. Why not wait and pluck out the 10th or so best WR? The OL in this year's draft is NOT deep. If we have a chance to get Andrews or Smiley, we jump on it. WR can be addressed later.

6) JR Tolver

Not a big deal, but I want to see what this kid can do. With a rookie 3rd WR, he'll never see the field.

Right now, JR Tolver is a long shot to even make the team. If this guy couldn't make an impact on the team last year when they were begging for a wide receiver to step up, I doubt he makes one ever. In fact, he was passed over on the depth chart by Kendall Newsom.


You take the best player available, regardless. If that player is a wide receiver, take him. If that player is a linebacker, take him.

 

[Jorser]

Have to say these are a couple of the most logical posts on this much debated topic. I may chime in with some opinion later, but nice job Keith and Infiltrateib on laying it all all out so well. You can argue both sides on the coin on this one all day long. Will be very intereresting to see where it goes. One point I want to continue to hammer home, is that offensive lineman rarely make an impact in their first year. Just remember that when you think of just plugging in someone and expecting them to contribute at a level that brings improvemnet and/or consistency from what we have had. That being said, Andrews and Smiley are probably two who may be able to do just that, particularly Smiley. 20 for a guard is so high though.

Excellent points Keith.

 

[Jorser]

inf: very well written. I agree we need help on the OL. However, we may be in a position tomorrow afternoon where we are on the clock, no other team is willing to trade with us (or at least give us close to market value for pick #20), and the BPA is clearly a WR. Do we still draft an OLman?

Certainly not if Andrews is gone. 20 is way to high for either Carey or Smiley.
This is the dilema.

 

[infiltrateib]

This is the exact same reasoning the Dolphins used when they took Jamar Fletcher over Kendrell Bell in the 2001 draft. The reason was that the nickle back would be on the field more than the starting strongside linebacker. It is this line of thinking that will make you pass on the better player.

You're taking my argument to an extreme. I'm not saying this is the only reason we take OL. What you've done is taken a 6-premise argument and tried to show holes in each one individually. I understand that using one of these thought trains alone leads to an inefficient pick, but together they do make a point.

Actually, David Boston has been an unreliable player his entire career to date, and Chris Chambers is a free agent after the season. You can't consider either player to be part of the future at this time. If Boston goes off the deep end again, and Chambers chooses not to sign a long term deal, then Miami has no options to replace either and will be forced to overspend to get a receiver.

Ok. By the same thought process, Ricky could be injured and Minor only signed a one-year deal. Let's take a RB, so we don't have to overspend on one next year.

Realistically, Chambers will likely resign (IMO, and from what I've heard out of the FO) and I have faith that Boston will be more reliable. There's evidence to bet on him (his attitude thus far, Tressman, Sullivan).

The message it sends is that we are doing what it takes to get this passing offense to the level it needs to be at for this team to get to the Superbowl. In the same sense, what message does drafting an offensive lineman send when you spent two third round picks on linemen last year and then got two free agents to sign this year? What does Damion McIntosh think if Miami takes Andrews after they signed him to a 6 year deal? What does John St. Clair think after he signed with Miami because he was told he would compete for the starting spot?

1) How does adding a 3rd WR who'd be lucky to see the field 5 times a game take our passing offense to another level? We are a run-first team with 2 explosive talents at WR already.

2) Third round picks sparingly see the field. I'm not worried about sending them a message. By the third round your odds of success are lower. Free agents are free agents. Some other team let them go. They are newcomers and the logic doesn't hold up the same as in my argument.

3) Damien McIntosh should be well aware of the fact that he is an injured player that could very well be replaced. Take a look at his salary this season.

Right now, JR Tolver is a long shot to even make the team. If this guy couldn't make an impact on the team last year when they were begging for a wide receiver to step up, I doubt he makes one ever. In fact, he was passed over on the depth chart by Kendall Newsom.

They all have more experience. He was a rookie. Rookie WRs outside of Randy Moss and Boldin don't usually make a big splash their first year. Let alone 5th rounders. Give him some time to develop. Anyone taken in the second day is probably a long shot that needs to mature/bulk up/learn the game.

You take the best player available, regardless. If that player is a wide receiver, take him. If that player is a linebacker, take him.

I understand the logic, and I agree in theory. But there is just no sense in the Colts taking a QB and passing up a LB that is only slightly behind. BPA isn't a 100% sure thing. Don't reach, but don't be blind about it.

 

[Atila]

4) Smokescreen

I have a sneaking suspicion that Rick might be talking up the WRs to see who falls and paint us as a team not focused on OL. If everyone knows we're going OL, they know where they have to trade up to in order to nab our player. We can't show our cards. If the FO said "we love Shawn Andrews and will take him" the Patriots might just move up 2 spots. We can't have that.

i think a team that picks up players that a different franchise wants purely to piss them off has an idiotic FO. i find it dumb to think a FO would disregard its own franchise just to piss off a different one

 

[infiltrateib]

i think a team that picks up players that a different franchise wants purely to piss them off has an idiotic FO. i find it dumb to think a FO would disregard its own franchise just to piss off a different one

Not what I meant. I meant that if you let everyone know who you're going to pick everyone knows where they have to move to secure the player they want. If we're hush-hush about it, a team might not see it coming and won't jump up to grab our target.

NE needs OL, and they may take Andrews/Carey if they are there.

 

[Atila]

carey goes to the vikes, imo

 

[Danny]

The only lineman I see us taking at 20 is Andrews and he'll be gone before our pick imo. I think we'll go WR or DT unl;ess we trade down in which case we'd then take a guy like Snee or one of the OT's.

Ozzy rules!!