You guys wanted to know what Pats fans were saying??? | Page 2 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

You guys wanted to know what Pats fans were saying???

The way I look at it is 1st you go to your bread and butter and that's Welker, first mistake. The bigger mistake was trying to stop Indy from scoring! Why not let them score if your gonna go for it on 4th down, this should have been apart of the decision. You let them score and now you have almost 2 minutes to get in fg position to win the game. You have Brady, Moss, Welker and Watson to get you there and then you have one of the best FG kickers in the game.

To me that was the biggest mistake!

It's a tough call on letting them score. I understand the point, but they make one mistake and you win. I would not have let them score initially, or in the final seconds once it was obvious you wouldn't have enough time. The one play they might have allowed a score, and have it be the proper decision, was the running play that busted down to the one. There was still more than a minute. But New England has stopped the Colts before on a goal line stand to end the game. I'm sure Belichick remembered that. That was in Indy, somewhere between 2003 and 2005, another high scoring game. My memory seems to be less reliable because normally I could pinpoint the exact season.

One strange variable is the correct thing to do can change during the play itself, depending on the situation. I don't know how you school players to grasp the shifting circumstance. For example, Miami led Oklahoma 21-20 this season, with Oklahoma desperate to get the ball back late, with no time outs. Miami made a key first down on a 3rd down play. Once the first down was made, the correct strategy would be let the receiver score and make it 28-20 so you still have a chance. But how do you tell a guy, tackle him on the 27 but once he reaches the 24, let him score? Tonight was similar. The Patriots secondary probably should have allowed the back to score once he burst down to the 1 yard line, but if the play was defended properly near the line of scrimmage, then you're better off stopping him.
 
4th and 2 with Brady, Moss and Welker or give the ball back to Manning. I think I go for it as well.
 
4th and 2 with Brady, Moss and Welker or give the ball back to Manning. I think I go for it as well.

Agreed, 9 out of 10 times the pats convert and win the game, if it works.. pats fans are loving it and calling Bellicheck the best coach of all time. Funny how inches can change a person's emotions and opinions so drastically on Sunday :lol:
 
I am sorry. You do not go for it on 4th and 2 on your own 28. There is zero justification for that. It's not like the pat's D didnt stop Manning at least some of the time. That was a completely moronic call, and I loved it. :)
 
I am sorry. You do not go for it on 4th and 2 on your own 28. There is zero justification for that. It's not like the pat's D didnt stop Manning at least some of the time. That was a completely moronic call, and I loved it. :)

AdvancedNFLStats.com disagrees with you. Their analysis is very good but IMO they severely underestimate the likelihood of Brady/Welker/Moss from converting the 4th and 2. It's far beyond 60%:

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/11/belichicks-4th-down-decision-vs-colts.html

"With 2:00 left and the Colts with only one timeout, a successful conversion wins the game for all practical purposes. A 4th and 2 conversion would be successful 60% of the time. Historically, in a situation with 2:00 left and needing a TD to either win or tie, teams get the TD 53% of the time from that field position. The total WP for the 4th down conversion attempt would therefore be:

(0.60 * 1) + (0.40 * (1-0.53)) = 0.79 WP

A punt from the 28 typically nets 38 yards, starting the Colts at their own 34. Teams historically get the TD 30% of the time in that situation. So the punt gives the Pats about a 0.70 WP.

Statistically, the better decision would be to go for it, and by a good amount. However, these numbers are baselines for the league as a whole. You'd have to expect the Colts had a better than a 30% chance of scoring from their 34, and an accordingly higher chance to score from the Pats' 28. But any adjustment in their likelihood of scoring from either field position increases the advantage of going for it. You can play with the numbers any way you like, but it's pretty hard to come up with a realistic combination of numbers that make punting the better option. At best, you could make it a wash."
 
After committing the BIGGEST choke job in the history of sports, you'd think Pat fans would be used to any type of traumatic losses.
 
Pats fans complaining about the refs, too funny :lol:
 
It was a brilliant decision that gave his team the greatest odds of winning the game. Most of you wouldnt understand it. Thats why you homer up on Tony Morono.

Have you considered the possibility that Sparano ordered the Fins defense to allow the late Bucs TD so that the offense could have enough time for a game winning FG drive? Check the tape on Charlie Anderson if you get a chance. The worst thing that could have happened is the Bucs run down the clock and get the TD.
 
Just an observation, but the Pats had pretty decent coverage on the Colts' receivers most of the night, but they sure as heck make some tough catches on some "uncatchable balls" (as some have accused Henne of throwing).
The contrast between what Manning has to work with and what our QB has to work with is dramatic.
 
That was a ridiculously arrogant playcall. I am thrilled that Belicheck got burned my it, FINALLY!!

What a great day!!
 
I thought it was the correct call and I expected Belichick to go for it, as soon as it reached 4th down. In Las Vegas I've dealt with estimated probability for more than 20 years. Often the true odds aren't remotely close to conventional wisdom. This is a classic example. New England was a considerable favorite to make the first down and end the game on 4th and short. They would have been roughly a 1/3 favorite. But if you kick it away I can't make it 50/50 that you stop Manning, no matter where he starts, with 2 minutes and one time out.

You can't apply the standard mindset, that's what I'm saying. All the analysts are looking at this from a tunnel vision view, i.e. what normally would be the correct choice from a mathematical standpoint. But Brady is your trigger man, not the typical QB. He's considerably more likely to make the first down and end the game than the average clown. And the other guy is Manning the dagger, plus New England's defense is young and on the road.

There was one similar situation I can think of. It was more debatable. Switzer went for 4th and 1 against the Eagles very late from his own 29 in the '90s and failed, while leading. He took relentless criticism. I'm sure the networks will eventually find that clip to use as an example of something comparable to tonight. Switzer's rationale was a huge wind was facing the Cowboys so a punt likely would go nowhere. Plus he had Emmitt Smith and the best offensive line in the league.

In that case I thought it was the wrong choice, but only slightly. Tonight I'd love to bet if they played out the scenario 100 times, New England would win a higher percentage by going for it and not punting.

I always doubted New England would hold on. The NFL is not remotely close to what it used to be. You can't stop premier QBs from sticking one TD after another on the board when they need it in the 4th quarter. Consequently you've got to be beyond greedy when you have the edge. New England seemed to screw around from mid second quarter on, once they had the 24-7 lead. It may have seemed like plenty. It was nothing. I kept thinking about the Saints vs. Dolphins. Brady threw a lazy pick in the end zone in the third quarter, then Maroney fumbled going into the end zone. Most critical of all, New England had no urgency when they led 31-21 and got the INT with about 7 minutes left. Two first downs there, or a TD, and you're gold. But when you leave 4+ minutes and only lead by 13, suddenly you're in the same situation USC faced against Texas in the Rose Bowl, a situation that looks great but all it takes is a TD, quick stop, then TD. It happened again.

The stupid part was throwing to Faulk and not Welker on 4th down.

Welker is the best and most clever third down receiver in the league. If you watch the replay, he was cruising over the middle from left to right and is open, about 2 yards past the marker. Brady never looked his way, which is astonishing. I can't believe Moss and Welker weren't targeted on the final two plays.

I thought a run would have been the call..., it would have run a couple more seconds off the clock they ran the ball well enough all night..., a lot can go wrong on a throw..., and well luckily it did..., it went bad for Henne when he threw on that 3rd down... earlier Sunday...

Best line

Well, that's what happens when you become ****ing arrogant. We lost this game on a call that should have been punted. Who the **** calls for a 4th down try on your own 30 yard line? Belichick is a good coach, but he is no genius.
 
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