Zero patience for NFL QBs

[Tureo]

Alabama won with defense before Tua. He took over an offense led by hurts and took it to another level. Oklahoma's offense may be a better fit for Hurts but Tua made the same talent Hurts had super explosive.

These past 2 weeks I've learned Clowney isn't that good, Tua is going to flop, but Rosen is going to be a good one.

 

[fansinceGWilson]

If they were content with a solid starter Tannehill would still be here.

I'd argue that right not there's nothing worse than the average QB. For reasons that mystify me the average QB manages to get paid the same as the elite. One more mediocre season and Tannehill would have been in line for 150 mil......its madness.

You either have an elite QB or an average one on a rookie deal. I don't see any middle ground and if the conclusion after this season is that Rosen won't ever be amongst the elite hes either got to go or take a back seat to a rookie.

Average QBs are paid big bucks because average QBs are hard to find. That's why there's so much churn.
Which leads me to . . . if the standard of 32 GMs was 'elite' or keep trying, there would be a LOT of teams REALLY trying for a QB every 1-2 years. If we assume for sake of discussion there are always 3 elite QBs in the league and 3 highly touted QBs in the draft every year, 26 teams would be trying to upgrade. There aren't. Maybe 5-7. The rest roll with what they have. It's easy for fans to want an elite QB (I do), but that's not the way the NFL works. Give a team an average QB and most will stay with what they have. Thus, the overpaid 'average' QB.

 

[Ferretsquig]

Average QBs are paid big bucks because average QBs are hard to find. That's why there's so much churn.
Which leads me to . . . if the standard of 32 GMs was 'elite' or keep trying, there would be a LOT of teams REALLY trying for a QB every 1-2 years. If we assume for sake of discussion there are always 3 elite QBs in the league and 3 highly touted QBs in the draft every year, 26 teams would be trying to upgrade. There aren't. Maybe 5-7. The rest roll with what they have. It's easy for fans to want an elite QB (I do), but that's not the way the NFL works. Give a team an average QB and most will stay with what they have. Thus, the overpaid 'average' QB.

And they won't win anything.... I think average QBs are paid because its one thing that owners, GMs, and coaches can all agree on. Owners love a marketable face for the franchise, while GMs and coaches love the short term job security and stability. Of course the security is all an illusion which evaporates after a couple years where no improvement is to be found.

Its a foolish path to follow and one I hope Flores and co manage to avoid.

For the sake of argument there are ~7 "elite" QBs. Brady, Brees, Mahomes, Rivers, Roethlisberger, Rodgers, and Wilson. Another ~4 that have had elite stretches and are young enough that they'll get at a minimum 2/3 yrs to show they can reach that status. Mayfield, Watson, Wentz, and Goff. You're right in saying that another 3 come into the league every year and even if they never show anything can be palatable starters with their rookie scale contracts for 3/4 years. So that leaves about 10 teams that should be looking for one of those next three every year.

To me its just a trend and one that will eventually die out. Its really hard for me to believe that there are only 10 people in the world that can play QB at a high level and gets even harder to believe every time I see a Foles or Keenum or Cousins come around and put together a great season. I'll acknowledge that it takes a rare confluence of events to produce one of these elites but its not solely based on the talent or mind the QB possesses.

 

[Juice Phillips]

And they won't win anything.... I think average QBs are paid because its one thing that owners, GMs, and coaches can all agree on. Owners love a marketable face for the franchise, while GMs and coaches love the short term job security and stability. Of course the security is all an illusion which evaporates after a couple years where no improvement is to be found.

Its a foolish path to follow and one I hope Flores and co manage to avoid.

For the sake of argument there are ~7 "elite" QBs. Brady, Brees, Mahomes, Rivers, Roethlisberger, Rodgers, and Wilson. Another ~4 that have had elite stretches and are young enough that they'll get at a minimum 2/3 yrs to show they can reach that status. Mayfield, Watson, Wentz, and Goff. You're right in saying that another 3 come into the league every year and even if they never show anything can be palatable starters with their rookie scale contracts for 3/4 years. So that leaves about 10 teams that should be looking for one of those next three every year.

To me its just a trend and one that will eventually die out. Its really hard for me to believe that there are only 10 people in the world that can play QB at a high level and gets even harder to believe every time I see a Foles or Keenum or Cousins come around and put together a great season. I'll acknowledge that it takes a rare confluence of events to produce one of these elites but its not solely based on the talent or mind the QB possesses.

Sorry to be that guy but Phil Rivers doesn't belong in that category and Mayfield doesn't belong in his until we see some continuity

 

[fansinceGWilson]

In my opinion Phil Rivers doesn't belong in that category and Mayfield doesn't belong in his until we see some continuity

Nor do wentz, Watson, or Goff.

 

[Mach2]

Nor do wentz, Watson, or Goff.

Nor does Wilson, IMO, but "elite" is a subjective term. I also think it has a lot to do with the overall quality of the team around them.

As I pointed out recently in another thread, guys like Brady, Ben, etc are part of stable, consistant franchises. They aren't teams on an endless coaching carousel, that change direction every three years.

You can argue the chicken/egg question, but a good coaching staff and front office are hallmarks of long term success.

 

[fansinceGWilson]

And they won't win anything.... I think average QBs are paid because its one thing that owners, GMs, and coaches can all agree on. Owners love a marketable face for the franchise, while GMs and coaches love the short term job security and stability. Of course the security is all an illusion which evaporates after a couple years where no improvement is to be found.

Its a foolish path to follow and one I hope Flores and co manage to avoid.

For the sake of argument there are ~7 "elite" QBs. Brady, Brees, Mahomes, Rivers, Roethlisberger, Rodgers, and Wilson. Another ~4 that have had elite stretches and are young enough that they'll get at a minimum 2/3 yrs to show they can reach that status. Mayfield, Watson, Wentz, and Goff. You're right in saying that another 3 come into the league every year and even if they never show anything can be palatable starters with their rookie scale contracts for 3/4 years. So that leaves about 10 teams that should be looking for one of those next three every year.

To me its just a trend and one that will eventually die out. Its really hard for me to believe that there are only 10 people in the world that can play QB at a high level and gets even harder to believe every time I see a Foles or Keenum or Cousins come around and put together a great season. I'll acknowledge that it takes a rare confluence of events to produce one of these elites but its not solely based on the talent or mind the QB possesses.

"2/3 yrs to show they can reach that status.?" You mean like stafford, Dalton, and Palmer. No, there are few elite QBs, the top 10 often includes QBs who aren't too good, and average QBs make boatloads of money. '10' may be too few, but, again, pick a position, there are 20+ that are average or above. (THE reason I'm against league expansion - there isn't enough NFL talent already - but that's for a different thread.)

I'll not get into the 'most R1 QBs aren't elite' discussion. Suffice it to say average QBs are so hard to get, teams would rather keep and overpay an average QB than risk drafting the next Ponder. Look, I'm all for an elite QB. I'm not arguing keep Rosen for 10 more years. But there IS some patience. That's why the 'typical' team doesn't draft a R1-R2 QB every 1-2 years.

 

[fansinceGWilson]

Nor does Wilson, IMO, but "elite" is a subjective term. I also think it has a lot to do with the overall quality of the team around them.

As I pointed out recently in another thread, guys like Brady, Ben, etc are part of stable, consistant franchises. They aren't teams on an endless coaching carousel, that change direction every three years.

You can argue the chicken/egg question, but a good coaching staff and front office are hallmarks of long term success.

It is not coincidence elite teams almost always have a top QB AND a top HC.
Not taking anything away from Brady, but he would have had little success under Philbin

 

[russianbear]

I'm sorry but reading the first sentence after watching our franchise give Tannehill 7 years to develop make me roll my eyes out of my skull.

If the NFL is too impatient for QB Development, Salary Caps are to blame. That rookie QB contract window is so important.

There's a lot of money on the line. Lots of prospects...it's not too surprising, really.

 

[tay0365]

In today’s NFL their is far TOO little patience with QB development.

Rosen is best kept out of the live action for as long as possible and here’s why:

We mostly think we know what we have in a poor offensive line - but we do not know how bad or good they will perform. Better to see what are the our strengths and weaknesses -

This sets the stage to put together as much as possible to protect Rosen from getting very badly pummeled.

Rosen is an asset. Draft Tua - and keep Rosen as a backup - of trade Rosen for a 2 or better (2 2nd rounders - or a 2nd and a third or 4th).

Rosen will likely show enough to get him some buyers. If not keep him as insurance.

Please see Jim Plunkett, Doug Williams, Steve Young, Joe Flacco, John Elway...all Super Bowl winning QBs where it took a bit for the picture to come together more...

Rosen might need some time - although the Ravens defense will likely put Fitzpatrick out of business by half time...

If Rosen proves to be for real, Miami will not be in position to get Tua, which is fine by me, because though Tua will be a good QB, and possibly better then a Rosen that proved himself, Rosen could also be better the Tua.

Tua seems like a great college QB that will explode to even more greatness in the NFL, but as history has proven, that does not always heppen (Luck, Shuler, Mirer, Schlichter, Leaf, Russell...).

Again I use the the famous saying 'A bird in hand is Worth Two in the Bush'

 

[Ferretsquig]

I'll not get into the 'most R1 QBs aren't elite' discussion. Suffice it to say average QBs are so hard to get, teams would rather keep and overpay an average QB than risk drafting the next Ponder. Look, I'm all for an elite QB. I'm not arguing keep Rosen for 10 more years. But there IS some patience. That's why the 'typical' team doesn't draft a R1-R2 QB every 1-2 years.

I couldn't care less if they come to the conclusion that Rosen is not going to be anything more than average and still decide to keep him. I do have a problem if two years from now they come to that same conclusion and offer him 200 mil.

And I couldn't disagree more with the comment that average QBs are so hard to find. Cassel, Garoppolo, and Brissett come to mind. If you can get past this infatuation with measurables you'll find quite a few out there that can play. A GM being lousy at identifying talent is no excuse for handing over a fifth of your allotted budget for mediocrity.