RB Jaylen Wright

[MiaFins31]

I would like to take the over on Wright rushing for 400 yards this season. 5 TDs seems about right unless injuries push him into the starting lineup. Wouldnt shock me if the Fins have 3 RBs with >1000 all purpose yards this season.

I wasn’t predicting those stats.

I said IF I said that… just trying to make a point.

For the record… NO CHANCE we have 3 backs over 1000 all purpose. Absolutely zero chance of that.

 

[Pacer]

I wasn’t predicting those stats.

I said IF I said that… just trying to make a point.

For the record… NO CHANCE we have 3 backs over 1000 all purpose. Absolutely zero chance of that.

I will go with greater than zero but very close to zero, but it would be pretty cool if it did happen.

 

[MiaFins31]

I will go with greater than zero but very close to zero, but it would be pretty cool if it did happen.

Ok fair enough bc their is always a chance no matter how small.

Yes it would be really cool and I’d imagine if they did accomplish that… that would mean we are really… really good.

 

[MiaFins31]

Please read this article from ESPN for all those who want to tell me why a Wright is so valuable. Here’s an excerpt but you’ll need to read the entire article to understand the whole point.

I’ll go ahead and guess some of the responses… “who cares what a nobody from ESPN said”… “He’s stupid… who cares what he says”… “they just hate the Dolphins so screw what he says”… even though the dude literally did research using a formula and has the data to back up what he’s saying…. Here’s the excerpt from the article…

Under Roseman, the Eagles have typically been the sort of team to take advantage of other teams' impatience, but he ended up on the wrong side of one of these moves last year, sending a future third-rounder to the Cardinals for a fourth-round pick that was used on cornerback Kelee Ringo, who was just buried on the depth chart when Philly used its top two picks in the 2024 class on cornerbacks.

To make up for his rare moment of overconfidence, Roseman picked up some free draft capital by exploiting the Dolphins over the weekend. A cap-strapped Miami team that is missing draft capital because of its tampering case sent a 2025 third-round pick to the Eagles to move up for running back Jaylen Wright at No. 120. Wright is a fun, explosive player, but the Dolphins don't need to prioritize adding speedy running backs given their current roster. This could end up being a 40-pick jump for the Eagles a year from now.

This is not just about that excerpt… please read the entire article so you can understand what he’s saying. That’s not his opinion… it’s a fact using his research data.

Barnwell: Does trading up in the NFL draft actually work? What we can learn from 242 past deals

Trading up isn't simply a pass/fail conversation, but there often is a clear winner. Here's what previous NFL draft deals can teach us.

www.espn.com

 

[djphinfan]

Please read this article from ESPN for all those who want to tell me why a Wright is so valuable. Here’s an excerpt but you’ll need to read the entire article to understand the whole point.

I’ll go ahead and guess some of the responses… “who cares what a nobody from ESPN said”… “He’s stupid… who cares what he says”… “they just hate the Dolphins so screw what he says”… even though the dude literally did research using a formula and has the data to back up what he’s saying…. Here’s the excerpt from the article…

Under Roseman, the Eagles have typically been the sort of team to take advantage of other teams' impatience, but he ended up on the wrong side of one of these moves last year, sending a future third-rounder to the Cardinals for a fourth-round pick that was used on cornerback Kelee Ringo, who was just buried on the depth chart when Philly used its top two picks in the 2024 class on cornerbacks.

To make up for his rare moment of overconfidence, Roseman picked up some free draft capital by exploiting the Dolphins over the weekend. A cap-strapped Miami team that is missing draft capital because of its tampering case sent a 2025 third-round pick to the Eagles to move up for running back Jaylen Wright at No. 120. Wright is a fun, explosive player, but the Dolphins don't need to prioritize adding speedy running backs given their current roster. This could end up being a 40-pick jump for the Eagles a year from now.

This is not just about that excerpt… please read the entire article so you can understand what he’s saying. That’s not his opinion… it’s a fact using his research data.

Barnwell: Does trading up in the NFL draft actually work? What we can learn from 242 past deals

Trading up isn't simply a pass/fail conversation, but there often is a clear winner. Here's what previous NFL draft deals can teach us.

www.espn.com

can you just tell us your point ?

 

[MiaFins31]

can you just tell us your point ?

It’s to much to type the entire thing.

I agree the article is long but absolutely worth the read.

He used 242 draft trades as his sample which goes back to 2011 I believe it was.

It basically shows that you have a much larger chance of losing the trade when trading up of landing a player that will outplay the value you sent away for him.

It’s a really good article. Take the time to read it if you can.

 

[djphinfan]

It’s to much to type the entire thing.

I agree the article is long but absolutely worth the read.

He used 242 draft trades as his sample which goes back to 2011 I believe it was.

It basically shows that you have a much larger chance of losing the trade when trading up of landing a player that will outplay the value you sent away for him.

It’s a really good article. Take the time to read it if you can.

we’re talking about a late third round pick

If the player succeeds and becomes what you think you project then it’s all good

 

[Fineas]

Please read this article from ESPN for all those who want to tell me why a Wright is so valuable. Here’s an excerpt but you’ll need to read the entire article to understand the whole point.

I’ll go ahead and guess some of the responses… “who cares what a nobody from ESPN said”… “He’s stupid… who cares what he says”… “they just hate the Dolphins so screw what he says”… even though the dude literally did research using a formula and has the data to back up what he’s saying…. Here’s the excerpt from the article…

Under Roseman, the Eagles have typically been the sort of team to take advantage of other teams' impatience, but he ended up on the wrong side of one of these moves last year, sending a future third-rounder to the Cardinals for a fourth-round pick that was used on cornerback Kelee Ringo, who was just buried on the depth chart when Philly used its top two picks in the 2024 class on cornerbacks.

To make up for his rare moment of overconfidence, Roseman picked up some free draft capital by exploiting the Dolphins over the weekend. A cap-strapped Miami team that is missing draft capital because of its tampering case sent a 2025 third-round pick to the Eagles to move up for running back Jaylen Wright at No. 120. Wright is a fun, explosive player, but the Dolphins don't need to prioritize adding speedy running backs given their current roster. This could end up being a 40-pick jump for the Eagles a year from now.

This is not just about that excerpt… please read the entire article so you can understand what he’s saying. That’s not his opinion… it’s a fact using his research data.

Barnwell: Does trading up in the NFL draft actually work? What we can learn from 242 past deals

Trading up isn't simply a pass/fail conversation, but there often is a clear winner. Here's what previous NFL draft deals can teach us.

www.espn.com

I don't think the article really says what you think it says and its specific reference to the Wright trade is just kinda dumb. I think it goes without saying that the wisdom of any trade up depends on the player picked. If Wright outperforms a 3rd round level, which is what the Dolphins gave up to get him (next year's 3rd) it will be a good trade. If Wright is a great RB it will be a great trade. The article acknowledges that about 38-42% of the time the trade up turns out to be a good move. That may not be 50% but it is pretty close and, again, it all depends on the specifics of the deal and the player taken. Was the Chiefs' trade up for Mahomes a good deal? Yes. YES. YES. YES. YES. YES.

Of course, the author (Barnwell) has absolutely no idea how Wright will turn out. He seems to have concluded that the Dolphins don't need a RB, but perhaps he doesn't realize that Raheem Mostert is 32 and has missed numerous games every single year of his career. Or that Achane has missed multiple games in all but one season since high school.

Wright was No. 72 on the NFL Mock Draft Database Consensus Big Board, so the consensus was that he was a high third round value. The Dolphins gave up a 3rd round pick that if 2024 is even like 2022 and 2023 will be a late 3rd round pick. And they won't actually miss it for another year. If Wright lives up top his consensus big board value (or exceeds it), it was a good trade regardless of whether Barnwell, in his infinite wisdom, thinks the Dolphins need a RB.

 

[Pacer]

Please read this article from ESPN for all those who want to tell me why a Wright is so valuable. Here’s an excerpt but you’ll need to read the entire article to understand the whole point.

I’ll go ahead and guess some of the responses… “who cares what a nobody from ESPN said”… “He’s stupid… who cares what he says”… “they just hate the Dolphins so screw what he says”… even though the dude literally did research using a formula and has the data to back up what he’s saying…. Here’s the excerpt from the article…

Under Roseman, the Eagles have typically been the sort of team to take advantage of other teams' impatience, but he ended up on the wrong side of one of these moves last year, sending a future third-rounder to the Cardinals for a fourth-round pick that was used on cornerback Kelee Ringo, who was just buried on the depth chart when Philly used its top two picks in the 2024 class on cornerbacks.

To make up for his rare moment of overconfidence, Roseman picked up some free draft capital by exploiting the Dolphins over the weekend. A cap-strapped Miami team that is missing draft capital because of its tampering case sent a 2025 third-round pick to the Eagles to move up for running back Jaylen Wright at No. 120. Wright is a fun, explosive player, but the Dolphins don't need to prioritize adding speedy running backs given their current roster. This could end up being a 40-pick jump for the Eagles a year from now.

This is not just about that excerpt… please read the entire article so you can understand what he’s saying. That’s not his opinion… it’s a fact using his research data.

Barnwell: Does trading up in the NFL draft actually work? What we can learn from 242 past deals

Trading up isn't simply a pass/fail conversation, but there often is a clear winner. Here's what previous NFL draft deals can teach us.

www.espn.com

So trading up is usually a bad deal, future draft picks are often undervalued, and RB is one of the least valuable positions to move up for.

The math doesnt lie but sometimes those moves do work out. The later in the draft the trade up occurs the less loss of value. Dolphins were also in a unique position havimg several more draft picks next year vs this year. In terms of balancing out the number of expiring rookie deals year by year might weigh in favor of the Wright trade.

Over the past several years the trade ups and tampering have been very costly to the team's the talent base. To overcome this requires a higher hit rate on picks, UDFAs and good value free agent signings. Hopefully we arent too far away from the day when Miami will be trading down in drafts, trading noncore players before they have to be paid, and finding value in excess of cost when acquiring veterans (typically by exploiting desperate cap constrained trading partners).

 

[MiaFins31]

So trading up is usually a bad deal, future draft picks are often undervalued, and RB is one of the least valuable positions to move up for.

The math doesnt lie but sometimes those moves do work out. The later in the draft the trade up occurs the less loss of value. Dolphins were also in a unique position havimg several more draft picks next year vs this year. In terms of balancing out the number of expiring rookie deals year by year might weigh in favor of the Wright trade.

Over the past several years the trade ups and tampering have been very costly to the team's the talent base. To overcome this requires a higher hit rate on picks, UDFAs and good value free agent signings. Hopefully we arent too far away from the day when Miami will be trading down in drafts, trading noncore players before they have to be paid, and finding value in excess of cost when acquiring veterans (typically by exploiting desperate cap constrained trading partners).

The math doesn’t lie as you stated.

That’s all I’m saying.

Hopefully yes it works out but I still say sending away a premium pick for a running back is bad value.

We shall see.

 

[MiaFins31]

I don't think the article really says what you think it says and its specific reference to the Wright trade is just kinda dumb. I think it goes without saying that the wisdom of any trade up depends on the player picked. If Wright outperforms a 3rd round level, which is what the Dolphins gave up to get him (next year's 3rd) it will be a good trade. If Wright is a great RB it will be a great trade. The article acknowledges that about 38-42% of the time the trade up turns out to be a good move. That may not be 50% but it is pretty close and, again, it all depends on the specifics of the deal and the player taken. Was the Chiefs' trade up for Mahomes a good deal? Yes. YES. YES. YES. YES. YES.

Of course, the author (Barnwell) has absolutely no idea how Wright will turn out. He seems to have concluded that the Dolphins don't need a RB, but perhaps he doesn't realize that Raheem Mostert is 32 and has missed numerous games every single year of his career. Or that Achane has missed multiple games in all but one season since high school.

Wright was No. 72 on the NFL Mock Draft Database Consensus Big Board, so the consensus was that he was a high third round value. The Dolphins gave up a 3rd round pick that if 2024 is even like 2022 and 2023 will be a late 3rd round pick. And they won't actually miss it for another year. If Wright lives up top his consensus big board value (or exceeds it), it was a good trade regardless of whether Barnwell, in his infinite wisdom, thinks the Dolphins need a RB.

It says exactly what I think it says. Numbers aren’t a mystery. It’s straight forward.

As usual… bc it says something bad about Miami it just has to be bs. The other articles some have posted praising the pick is gospel I know.

 

[rafael]

Which spot do you mean? Center or guard? Because I really like Brewer.

I like Brewer too. I want to upgrade the back-up C position behind Brewer in case we have a situation like last season where Williams went down.

 

[Pacer]

The math doesn’t lie as you stated.

That’s all I’m saying.

Hopefully yes it works out but I still say sending away a premium pick for a running back is bad value.

We shall see.

Agreed. At least it was for a player that addresses an important depth need with traits that cannot be found amongst UDFAs and the pass blocking is already mature so Wright wont be one dimensional or situational (concerns I have regarding Chop - hoping he will be a lomg term playmaker but wish we could have traded down, even for future year capital as the article advocates).

 

[Fineas]

It says exactly what I think it says. Numbers aren’t a mystery. It’s straight forward.

As usual… bc it says something bad about Miami it just has to be bs. The other articles some have posted praising the pick is gospel I know.

It doesn’t give any numbers about the likelihood that Wright will be good and worth the trade. If you think it does than it doesn’t say what you think it says.

 

[Feverdream]

Zierlein had Wright as the #2 RB on his board... no one had Wright lower than three or four, and the middle of the second round is about where that level of RB comes off the board.

We STOLE Wright for a future three.

He's our starter by the beginning of 2025.