Are The Dolphins and Tua Further Apart Than People Think?

[1972forever]

I think he will eventually sign for more than $50 million a year and in five years we will look back and realize they signed him for a great deal. Because in five years, the top QB’s in the NFL will being paid more than $65 million a year.

 

[MARINO1384]

what does starting quality QB mean? by definition, there are pretty close to 32 of them in the NFL. tannehill was a starting quality QB, because he started here, and was re-signed for a fair bit of money to start here, and then he started in tennessee.

Qbs that are actually good is what he means. There’s about 17 of them currently which is more than there has ever been in nfl history which I think makes people think that simply replacing Tua is an option. However it won’t like this forever and eventually guys like cousins/Rodgers/Stafford retire, others will fade and that number will dwindle back down to 10 or so like most periods in time.

 

[phinsforlife]

I think he will eventually sign for more than $50 million a year and and five years we will look back and realize they signed him for a great deal. Because in five years, the top QB’s in the NFL will being paid more than $65 million a year.

i agree they will sign a deal. that is not really the point of this thread, which was started awhile ago, and the point was that there was going to be a tough negotiation. it now appears that is the case. not sure why a negotiation bothers people, that's business. there is a lot of money involved, and the stakes are high, for both sides. and the answer is not as clear cut as people like to believe. here is sort of how it goes:

team tua: i lead the league in passing, here is what top QBs make

dolphins: you have not won a single playoff game, and have had only one good year where you both produced and were not hurt. all the QBs who got the big deals got their team to the super bowl, with the exception of one guy, who at least has never been hurt, and that team then won only 5 games after paying him

team tua: you screwed me out of my first two years with that bum flores as the coach, that is the teams fault

dolphins: subsequent to that, we surrounded you with the perfect coach, and a ton of talent. a fair bit of your success is due to us and the system. if we pay you that kind of money, you will no longer have the system around you, and you are not equipped to do it on your own. we need to strike a deal that allows us to have the flexibility to add talent around you so the team can be good. it is in your best interest as well to be part of a good team.

team tua: you think it is the system? how did teddy bridgewater look running the same system. don't pay me, good luck doing any better, how about another 20 years of sucking again. how old is steve ross? does he want to go through that again, and he doesn't have much time left

dolphins: fine, fair point, but if we don't pay you, who else will? you are not viewed in the same category as those other QBs. you want to test the market? good luck, you are not going to get the offers you expect. and do you want to go to another organization who is not going to surround you with the coaching and talent we have? maybe you will get another flores. have fun, meanwhile we will make you play out the 5th year option. who knows, maybe you get hurt again, or are not as good (kind of like it looked at the end of last season), and your market value will take a big digger. you want to take that risk, or do you want your future secured now. our offer would still make you the highest paid player on the team, and set for life. nothing to sneeze at.

team tua: screw you guys, that is BS. top QBs get paid $55mm per year. you think you can live without me, lets see how things look at voluntary OTAs with me taking some time off. plus the fans love me. you just took season ticket prices up 30%. the team is relevant again. we just got 5 prime time games. players want to come here. this is all because of me. you know how much money i just made you? my salary is chump change in compare to what I am doing for this franchise.

and around and around they go. eventually they will get to a deal. in my view tua will get paid, and pretty bigly. not all decisions are pure football decisions. they are business decisions as well. it is human nature to fear the unknown. the fans love tua. the path of least resistance is to sign tua, and feel like they can at least put a decent and entertaining product on the field for a few years as opposed to sucking. and who knows, maybe something better happens, you always have a chance.

 

[Mach2]

Qbs that are actually good is what he means. There’s about 17 of them currently which is more than there has ever been in nfl history which I think makes people think that simply replacing Tua is an option. However it won’t like this forever and eventually guys like cousins/Rodgers/Stafford retire, others will fade and that number will dwindle back down to 10 or so like most periods in time.

Interesting take.

Can you explain your statistical research? How did you quantify "good"? How did you "weight" different attributes, and did the weight proportions change as the game evolved? Did you factor in league expansion when teams were added? Was overall team talent l, irrespective of QB considered? Were there QBs that were "good" at some point in their career, but not at other points, for example was it situationally dependant of team change,etc.?

That sounds like a mountain of a task you undertook there, brother. Kudos to your dedication. I would love if you could DM me a copy of that research, or a spreadsheet of the results, listing the QB by name, year and team.

Or are you just pulling crap out of the air?

 

[phinsforlife]

Qbs that are actually good is what he means. There’s about 17 of them currently which is more than there has ever been in nfl history which I think makes people think that simply replacing Tua is an option. However it won’t like this forever and eventually guys like cousins/Rodgers/Stafford retire, others will fade and that number will dwindle back down to 10 or so like most periods in time.

if that is what he means, there is still a huge difference in the skills of QB 1 and QB 15 or even 10 in my mind. personally, I would not group them together.

 

[Mach2]

if that is what he means, there is still a huge difference in the skills of QB 1 and QB 15 or even 10 in my mind. personally, I would not group them together.

I certainly agree there.

Personally, I generally take a "tiered" approach.

The pay scale, however, is not necessarily a direct reflection of that. There is certainly correlation, but it isn't realistic to make a list and slot the contract like is done with the draft.

 

[MARINO1384]

if that is what he means, there is still a huge difference in the skills of QB 1 and QB 15 or even 10 in my mind. personally, I would not group them together.

Meh more like qb 1-4. Qb 5-15 nearly identical.

 

[phinsforlife]

I certainly agree there.

Personally, I generally take a "tiered" approach.

The pay scale, however, is not necessarily a direct reflection of that. There is certainly correlation, but it isn't realistic to make a list and slot the contract like is done with the draft.

i agree with that too. QB salaries are screwed up in my view. QB 10 will make close to QB 1, but doesn't add nearly the value. i think it is kind of wierd. from a pure football perspective, i think one or maybe 2 QBs can really carry the $55mm a year salary. in order to effectively carry that number the QB needs a unique combination of arm talent, physical durability, and the ability to run. that allows the QB to perform with less around him. the rest of them probably can't carry more than a $25mm-$30mm a year salary, if winning a super bowl is what the team aspires to. but that is not how it works, for a variety of reasons. not to mention, the 1 QB that can carry the $55mm a year salary, can't even really do that. mahomes number was only $37mm last year, and 17% of the cap, and they were on fumes at the end. barely won the SB, and probably wouldn't have if the 49ers kicker makes an XP or the idiot 49ers coach doesn't take the ball first in OT. if the kc roster had one less good player, they probably don't make it across the finish line. my view remains the best situation is having the QB be really good while on the rookie deal. last 3 SBs at least one of the teams was in this situation. granted they all lost, but boy were they close, and they did get there at least. mahomes was also on the other end for 2 of the 3.

 

[Mach2]

i agree with that too. QB salaries are screwed up in my view. QB 10 will make close to QB 1, but doesn't add nearly the value. i think it is kind of wierd. from a pure football perspective, i think one or maybe 2 QBs can really carry the $55mm a year salary. in order to effectively carry that number the QB needs a unique combination of arm talent, physical durability, and the ability to run. that allows the QB to perform with less around him. the rest of them probably can't carry more than a $25mm-$30mm a year salary, if winning a super bowl is what the team aspires to. but that is not how it works, for a variety of reasons. not to mention, the 1 QB that can carry the $55mm a year salary, can't even really do that. mahomes number was only $37mm last year, and 17% of the cap, and they were on fumes at the end. barely won the SB, and probably wouldn't have if the 49ers kicker makes an XP. if the kc roster had one less good player, they probably don't make it across the finish line.

You still seem to be hung up on raw, advertised numbers.

Not only are those numbers not nearly as important as contract structure and guarantees, it also dismissed the % of cap philosophy, which is how GMs generally look at the overall situation, amortizing cost over the viable contract length and making allowances for probable cap increases.

As I've said before, to talk about raw per numbers is too much of an oversimplification to be meaningful.

You say QB salaries are out of whack, but relative to what? Not cap %. Not the capitalistic philosophy of supply/demand.

I appreciate and understand your point, but isn't it obvious at this point that teams, as a rule, and most fans do not share that view?

 

[Mach2]

i agree with that too. QB salaries are screwed up in my view. QB 10 will make close to QB 1, but doesn't add nearly the value. i think it is kind of wierd. from a pure football perspective, i think one or maybe 2 QBs can really carry the $55mm a year salary. in order to effectively carry that number the QB needs a unique combination of arm talent, physical durability, and the ability to run. that allows the QB to perform with less around him. the rest of them probably can't carry more than a $25mm-$30mm a year salary, if winning a super bowl is what the team aspires to. but that is not how it works, for a variety of reasons. not to mention, the 1 QB that can carry the $55mm a year salary, can't even really do that. mahomes number was only $37mm last year, and 17% of the cap, and they were on fumes at the end. barely won the SB, and probably wouldn't have if the 49ers kicker makes an XP or the idiot 49ers coach doesn't take the ball first in OT. if the kc roster had one less good player, they probably don't make it across the finish line. my view remains the best situation is having the QB be really good while on the rookie deal. last 3 SBs at least one of the teams was in this situation. granted they all lost, but boy were they close, and they did get there at least. mahomes was also on the other end for 2 of the 3.

A tangential point to my last post would be your position that there are very few top tier QBs at any one time. Agree with that.

What are the other 30 teams supposed to do? Just cut the guy loose that they just invested several years in developing, and draft another?

If the guy you had is good and still on an upward trajectory that would seem silly. In the first place, if he is good, you likely aren't going to be picking top 5, so you have trade away valuable draft capital to get another top prospect, which chances are will be no better than what you already have. Sure, he will be cheaper, but unless he is one of the "once a generation" players, which you already admit is nearly impossible to attain, what have you really gained in terms of winning a Championship?

 

[MARINO1384]

Interesting take.

Can you explain your statistical research? How did you quantify "good"? How did you "weight" different attributes, and did the weight proportions change as the game evolved? Did you factor in league expansion when teams were added? Was overall team talent l, irrespective of QB considered? Were there QBs that were "good" at some point in their career, but not at other points, for example was it situationally dependant of team change,etc.?

That sounds like a mountain of a task you undertook there, brother. Kudos to your dedication. I would love if you could DM me a copy of that research, or a spreadsheet of the results, listing the QB by name, year and team.

Or are you just pulling crap out of the air?

Just an observation. If you want to name 3 random years I’ll go through and name the qbs I’d consider good and up starters.

Now it would be

Mahomes/Allen/burrow/lamar tier 1 elite

Tua/hurts/Herbert/Stafford/cousins/Goff/Purdy/dak/love/stroud tier 2 just about all these guys you could argue are as high as 5 but also have questions in their game or small sample sizes that you could put as low as 14.

Rodgers/Murray/tlaw to close out the 17 in tier 3. Murray and tlaw here on potential but not much production. Rodgers here due to question marks with age and injury not to mention his last season played in 2022 was not very good.

Aside from age and injury concerns all these qbs are very good and I don’t think you move on from them barring the whole injury and age thing.

 

[phinsforlife]

A tangential point to my last post would be your position that there are very few top tier QBs at any one time. Agree with that.

What are the other 30 teams supposed to do? Just cut the guy loose that they just invested several years in developing, and draft another?

If the guy you had is good and still on an upward trajectory that would seem silly. In the first place, if he is good, you likely aren't going to be picking top 5, so you have trade away valuable draft capital to get another top prospect, which chances are will be no better than what you already have. Sure, he will be cheaper, but unless he is one of the "once a generation" players, which you already admit is nearly impossible to attain, what have you really gained in terms of winning a Championship?

i am not sure if you misunderstood my point, or just have a different opinion (which is fine), but it just opinion, not fact. the point i was trying to make was not about the absolute level of QB salaries (a different discussion in and of itself), my point was about relative QB salaries. QB 10 more or less gets paid pretty close to QB 1, when QB 10 is a much less valuable player. it will never be apparent from their stats. for example, QB 10 sometimes has a regular season QB rating that is higher than QB 1, or more regular season yards. but when push comes to shove, i personally believe QB 1 is in another world than QB 10, and QB 10 should not be paid anywhere near to QB 1. when it comes to their salaries, they are treated like they are the same player, when they are not. but there are business issues and other non-football considerations, so QB 10 is able to break the bank. part of the reason is what you said "What are the other 30 teams supposed to do? Just cut the guy loose that they just invested several years in developing, and draft another?" going back to the point of this thread, this is part of the leverage tua has. which is more or less a combination of what you said, plus you can not pay me, and lose me, and then suck for another 20 years. the balance of power is more with the player than the team, for a variety of reasons, some business related. thusly the #10 QB is able to extract almost the same economics as the #1 Qb. my opinion.

 

[phinsforlife]

Just an observation. If you want to name 3 random years I’ll go through and name the qbs I’d consider good and up starters.

Now it would be

Mahomes/Allen/burrow/lamar tier 1 elite

Tua/hurts/Herbert/Stafford/cousins/Goff/Purdy/dak/love/stroud tier 2 just about all these guys you could argue are as high as 5 but also have questions in their game or small sample sizes that you could put as low as 14.

Rodgers/Murray/tlaw to close out the 17 in tier 3. Murray and tlaw here on potential but not much production. Rodgers here due to question marks with age and injury not to mention his last season played in 2022 was not very good.

Aside from age and injury concerns all these qbs are very good and I don’t think you move on from them barring the whole injury and age thing.

per the point i have been going back and forth on w Mach 2, you have cousins and goff as tier 2, but you have 10 total QBs in that bucket. 4 ahead of them. means goff and cousins are somewhere between 5 and 14. call them QB 10 on average. those guys both have contracts with an AAV that is higher than mahomes, and goff is actually pretty close to burrow. granted mahomes number probably goes up at some point, but goff is going to be within spitting distance. for better or for worse, that is just how it is. the QB has a disproportionate amount of leverage in the negotiation. variety of factors lead to the QBs having the leverage.

 

[Mach2]

i am not sure if you misunderstood my point, or just have a different opinion (which is fine), but it just opinion, not fact. the point i was trying to make was not about the absolute level of QB salaries (a different discussion in and of itself), my point was about relative QB salaries. QB 10 more or less gets paid pretty close to QB 1, when QB 10 is a much less valuable player. it will never be apparent from their stats. for example, QB 10 sometimes has a regular season QB rating that is higher than QB 1, or more regular season yards. but when push comes to shove, i personally believe QB 1 is in another world than QB 10, and QB 10 should not be paid anywhere near to QB 1. when it comes to their salaries, they are treated like they are the same player, when they are not. but there are business issues and other non-football considerations, so QB 10 is able to break the bank. part of the reason is what you said "What are the other 30 teams supposed to do? Just cut the guy loose that they just invested several years in developing, and draft another?" going back to the point of this thread, this is part of the leverage tua has. which is more or less a combination of what you said, plus you can not pay me, and lose me, and then suck for another 20 years. the balance of power is more with the player than the team, for a variety of reasons, some business related. thusly the #10 QB is able to extract almost the same economics as the #1 Qb. my opinion.

I understand your point. I just do not think it's based in the reality of how things work. It is also subjective AF, therefore different ppl are going to see it differently.

For one thing, you can't even compare a 2 year old contract to a new contract today. The increasing salary cap makes such a comp apples and oranges. Next year the cap will likely be around 60m higher than last year. If you don't believe that's relevant, I don't know what to tell you. It's Economics 101. Larger pie split the same number of ways = larger slices.

Is your objection based on what you personally believe about who deserves what? Because "deserve" has, much like life in general, has very little to do with it.

Is your objection that it handcuffs teams going forward? I would argue that is doesn't if the team has good medium to long term management. If they don't, it doesn't make much difference anyway.

Is it you objection that it just isn't fair? Is it fair that Tua per year average will be #31 this year, behind the likes of Brissett and Zach Wilson?

That cuts both ways.

I guess I just think it's a lot of complaining over a non issue.

 

[Mach2]

per the point i have been going back and forth on w Mach 2, you have cousins and goff as tier 2, but you have 10 total QBs in that bucket. 4 ahead of them. means goff and cousins are somewhere between 5 and 14. call them QB 10 on average. those guys both have contracts with an AAV that is higher than mahomes, and goff is actually pretty close to burrow. granted mahomes number probably goes up at some point, but goff is going to be within spitting distance. for better or for worse, that is just how it is. the QB has a disproportionate amount of leverage in the negotiation. variety of factors lead to the QBs having the leverage.

Again, you can't directly comp contracts that were signed years apart. Mahomes is a steal at this point, and has zero bearing on a contract today, for reasons already stated