The Dolphins Running Back Room Will Be?

[Atila]

regarding the QB sneaks, i have never seen a QB get hurt on a sneak. it is like a big mush pile, as opposed to bodies flying around at high velocity. the good sneakers like brady often seem to find an open gap and slide through there. from my perspective at least, i don't think the qb sneak is a big injury risk play.

regarding your last point, yes a 78 yard TD is better, but that is not what happens with any frequency, even for the dolphins with all of their weapons. this i think is where simple analytics can be misleading. using simple numbers, if throw on 3rd and 1, your average gain on a successful play might be 8 yards, but you might convert only 50% of the time, so the expected value is 4 yards. if run, your average gain on a successful play might be 1.5 yards, you convert 90% of the time, so your expected value is 1.35.

so 4 is better than 1.35, therefore always pass, right? absolutely not. what the expected value calculation ignores is the value of extending the drive, as opposed to having to punt. in the case of running, 90% of the time, you get 3 more downs. the value of that more than offsets the fewer expected yards gained by running vs passing. basically you just want to call the highest probability play that converts the third down.

further, if it is 3rd and 2, if run, even if dont make, you often turn it into 4th and 1, then much easier chance of converting the 4th and 1 than the 4th and 2 if pass, and you fail 50% of the time. this is the eagles tush push strategy. 3rd and 2 or 3, they just tush push, and do it twice if they need to, almost always get the first down. free money for those guys

I agree with running more, but certainly a 78 yd TD is worth more than a 2 yd first down that still leaves you 40+ yards from scoring 3 and 76 from scoring 6/7. Those don’t happen often but they do have considerable value that should be considered. That is especially true if it is 3rd and 1 and even if incomplete you can convert on 4th and 1.

You two are having such a strange convo. Fineas must be lost because he makes very compelling and well thought out arguments about why we should run more but then defends the dumbass decision making we made on 75% of 3rd and short by citing and defending vehemently the 3% chance it goes for a huge play.

We need to run more on 3rd and short - period. We threw the ball the 2nd most in those situations in the NFL and were only middle of the road at converting those same situations.

We are plenty good at creating explosive plays without wasting a bunch of 3rd and shorts getting one.

 

[powerball1373]

We talking about cutting our Pro Bowl FB?

 

[JamesWsenior]

We talking about cutting our Pro Bowl FB?

I am not. Some are.

 

[Atila]

We talking about cutting our Pro Bowl FB?

lol there is like 5 total FBs in the NFL.

But I don’t think it’s even remotely in the realm of possibility considering they gave him a very PECULIAR extension. He’s not getting cut. His snap count might get reduced a bit though.

 

[DrMultimedia]

lol there is like 5 total FBs in the NFL.

But I don’t think it’s even remotely in the realm of possibility considering they gave him a very PECULIAR extension. He’s not getting cut. His snap count might get reduced a bit though.

Certainly an interesting/rare position in the modern NFL. I wonder what his true impact on the team performance really is. I know he's one tough MF. I really wish Tua would have dumped off to him (and other RBs) much more than he did.

 

[JamesWsenior]

Seems quite confident about being rb3

Dolphins rookie RB Jaylen Wright excited to 'share the rock' with Raheem Mostert, De'Von Achane

 

[powerball1373]

Seems quite confident about being rb3

Dolphins rookie RB Jaylen Wright excited to 'share the rock' with Raheem Mostert, De'Von Achane

I sure hope he is otherwise we wasted that draft pick lol

 

[Fineas]

You two are having such a strange convo. Fineas must be lost because he makes very compelling and well thought out arguments about why we should run more but then defends the dumbass decision making we made on 75% of 3rd and short by citing and defending vehemently the 3% chance it goes for a huge play.

We need to run more on 3rd and short - period. We threw the ball the 2nd most in those situations in the NFL and were only middle of the road at converting those same situations.

We are plenty good at creating explosive plays without wasting a bunch of 3rd and shorts getting one.

This is a pretty strange argument. You must be lost because I'm sure you know that no team runs all the time on 3rd and short and if a team did it would become less successful without a real pass threat. And, of course, the Dolphins didn't pass on 75% of third and short plays or anything close to it. On 3rd and 2 or less they passed 19 out of 33 times (57.5%). Leaguewide, teams passed 40% of the time, so if the Dolphins had done that they would have thrown 6 fewer times than they did. If those came at the expense of the 78yd TD, the 31 yd TD, the 22 yard completion, the 19 yard completion and the two 17 yard completions it would not have been worth sacrificing all those big plays for a few short runs that may not even have resulted in a first down. As I said before, I tend to think they were throwing too much, but runs aren't always successful either and they are even less likely to result in big plays.

Needless to say, the Dolphins are hardly the only team to try for big passing plays on 3rd and short. Many other teams did it too.

 

[Bumpus]

Ingold is the best player on the team, the F you mean "if we keep" him?

Never forget … Once upon a time we got rid of a man named John Denney.

There are no sacred cows.

 

[phinsforlife]

This is a pretty strange argument. You must be lost because I'm sure you know that no team runs all the time on 3rd and short and if a team did it would become less successful without a real pass threat. And, of course, the Dolphins didn't pass on 75% of third and short plays or anything close to it. On 3rd and 2 or less they passed 19 out of 33 times (57.5%). Leaguewide, teams passed 40% of the time, so if the Dolphins had done that they would have thrown 6 fewer times than they did. If those came at the expense of the 78yd TD, the 31 yd TD, the 22 yard completion, the 19 yard completion and the two 17 yard completions it would not have been worth sacrificing all those big plays for a few short runs that may not even have resulted in a first down. As I said before, I tend to think they were throwing too much, but runs aren't always successful either and they are even less likely to result in big plays.

Needless to say, the Dolphins are hardly the only team to try for big passing plays on 3rd and short. Many other teams did it too.

do you know what the results were of all of those drives where they had the long play on the third down conversions? do you know if the results would have been different if they just converted the third down with a short run and kept at it? what if they did that, scored, and possessed the ball longer, giving the opposition fewer chances and wearing down their defense? two things i know for certain. one is what happens when you try an aggressive play on third down and don't make it, you are often punting and giving the other team the ball and putting your defense back on the field. second of all the dolphins themselves have publicly acknowledged they got too cutesy often on third down, and should have run the ball more often. it is possible the dolphins are wrong, but they seem to share my bias that the important thing is to convert the 3rd down with the highest probability way of doing it. the rest of the nfl believes this too. using your numbers, we passed 17% more than the league average on 3rd and short. that is a big difference. that probably means we were #1 in the league in terms of passing % on 3rd and short. even odder, we had a very good center and rg, and a very good running game, and were efficient at converting when we did run it.

 

[Atila]

This is a pretty strange argument. You must be lost because I'm sure you know that no team runs all the time on 3rd and short and if a team did it would become less successful without a real pass threat. And, of course, the Dolphins didn't pass on 75% of third and short plays or anything close to it. On 3rd and 2 or less they passed 19 out of 33 times (57.5%). Leaguewide, teams passed 40% of the time, so if the Dolphins had done that they would have thrown 6 fewer times than they did. If those came at the expense of the 78yd TD, the 31 yd TD, the 22 yard completion, the 19 yard completion and the two 17 yard completions it would not have been worth sacrificing all those big plays for a few short runs that may not even have resulted in a first down. As I said before, I tend to think they were throwing too much, but runs aren't always successful either and they are even less likely to result in big plays.

Needless to say, the Dolphins are hardly the only team to try for big passing plays on 3rd and short. Many other teams did it too.

Not sure how I struck a nerve but I did. I didn’t mean to seem attacking but looks like I insulted you.

Your theories around us needing to run more and responses about them were very thoughtful and agreeable. But your argument arguing the opposite for seemingly no reason is weird.

We can all post stats - and there are great quotes around how you can post stats to convey any point you want.

If we all watched the games, we saw how much we threw the ball and didn’t convert on 3rd and short. There were threads and threads on here after game days just pointing it out.

The stats are what they are - and they don’t point toward us being a particularly efficient 3rd and short team (average in conversion but 2nd highest in passing in said situations)… but we don’t need stats to see with our eyes how many times We were all yelling “run the ball” at the tv only for us to not convert on a throw.

First half of the season we were the best team in the nfl. The second half of the season (when injuries hit of course, but when we played good teams) we were up and down and the unwillingness to run on 3rd and short didn’t help… and as you pointed out yourself, we were more successful as a running team in those situations than passing… which is why I found your general argument strange.

 

[clownfish]

regarding the QB sneaks, i have never seen a QB get hurt on a sneak. it is like a big mush pile, as opposed to bodies flying around at high velocity. the good sneakers like brady often seem to find an open gap and slide through there. from my perspective at least, i don't think the qb sneak is a big injury risk play.

Mahomes luxated his patella on a QB sneak in 2019.

Patrick Mahomes Injury History & Updates

Patrick Mahomes Injury History & Updates. Our injury data is so comprehensive, even NFL teams have paid for it. Our algorithm even predicts injuries

www.draftsharks.com

 

[Fineas]

do you know what the results were of all of those drives where they had the long play on the third down conversions? do you know if the results would have been different if they just converted the third down with a short run and kept at it? what if they did that, scored, and possessed the ball longer, giving the opposition fewer chances and wearing down their defense? two things i know for certain. one is what happens when you try an aggressive play on third down and don't make it, you are often punting and giving the other team the ball and putting your defense back on the field. second of all the dolphins themselves have publicly acknowledged they got too cutesy often on third down, and should have run the ball more often. it is possible the dolphins are wrong, but they seem to share my bias that the important thing is to convert the 3rd down with the highest probability way of doing it. the rest of the nfl believes this too. using your numbers, we passed 17% more than the league average on 3rd and short. that is a big difference. that probably means we were #1 in the league in terms of passing % on 3rd and short. even odder, we had a very good center and rg, and a very good running game, and were efficient at converting when we did run it.

I do. The ones where the big plays were TDs resulted in . . . . TDs. The one with the 22 yarder resulted in a FG. If it had instead been a 2 yd run I know the Dolphins would have had to have gained those extra 20 yards a different way and there would have been a strong likelihood that they wouldn't. The one with the 19 yarder resulted in a 41 yard FG. Had it instead been a 2 yd run and also else remained the same that 41 yd FG would have either been a try from 58 yards, with a strong likelihood of a miss, or a punt. One of the 17 yarders resulted in a turnover on downs inside the Jets 5 yd line. No way to know how that would have turned if it it was a run. But there is a very strong likelihood that the Dolphins would have scored less on those drives if it had short runs on those 3rd downs.

The rest of the NFL doesn't think so differently. EVERY NFL team throws with some regularity on 3rd and short. NO team runs every time. And plenty of other teams tried for some big plays on 3rd and short. The Bengals had a 76 yard deep pass, the Browns had a 69 yarder, the Steelers had a 66 yarder and the Colts had a 58 yarder. The Titans had the best 3rd and short conversion rate in the league and they threw 44% of the time, including 3 deep passes.

 

[Fineas]

Not sure how I struck a nerve but I did. I didn’t mean to seem attacking but looks like I insulted you.

Your theories around us needing to run more and responses about them were very thoughtful and agreeable. But your argument arguing the opposite for seemingly no reason is weird.

We can all post stats - and there are great quotes around how you can post stats to convey any point you want.

If we all watched the games, we saw how much we threw the ball and didn’t convert on 3rd and short. There were threads and threads on here after game days just pointing it out.

The stats are what they are - and they don’t point toward us being a particularly efficient 3rd and short team (average in conversion but 2nd highest in passing in said situations)… but we don’t need stats to see with our eyes how many times We were all yelling “run the ball” at the tv only for us to not convert on a throw.

First half of the season we were the best team in the nfl. The second half of the season (when injuries hit of course, but when we played good teams) we were up and down and the unwillingness to run on 3rd and short didn’t help… and as you pointed out yourself, we were more successful as a running team in those situations than passing… which is why I found your general argument strange.

I basically used your words back at you, so I'm sure you do know how or why. But if you want me to explain it, I will. When you make comments like I "must be lost" and "this is a strange convo" and I was defending a "dumbass decision" you should realize that it comes off as snarky and condescending, which is why I sent your language back at you.

And I suppose I did find it a little irritating when you threw out a fake stat about throwing 75% of the time when that wasn't true or close to true. The stats reflect the facts about how often the Dolphins threw and how often they were successful. Yes, we can all cite them but it seems some of "us" cite completely fake made-up stats and others cite real ones. I'm in the latter camp.

Compared to the league average of pass/rush ratio on 3rd and short the Dolphins threw 6 times more over the course of the season. I pointed out that one should at least consider the 6-7 big plays that the Dolphins got on some of those pass plays. I have said several times that I personally would have preferred them to run more, but it's silly to suggest that there is no value to 78 and 31 yd TDs, or even 17-22 yard completions.

 

[Rayj2384]

I think this one is easier than the WRs. Teams tend to keep 4 RBs. My guesses:

In- Mostert, Achane, Chris Brooks, Jaylen Wright
Out- Jeff Wilson, Ahmed
Probable - Ingold as the fullback

I think Brooks over Wilson because they still need a power back, and he is the younger guy. The Ingold question is a bit above my paygrade, bit of a roster construction question depending on how they feel about other players at other positions. I guess they could live without the fullback, but I think they like having a guy like Ingold at the position.

The correct answer to your post's question is...really fast, productive and fun to watch. Oh and I agree with you in and out for what that's worth lol