Are The Dolphins and Tua Further Apart Than People Think?

[Mach2]

per the point i have been going back and forth on w Mach 2, you have cousins and goff as tier 2, but you have 10 total QBs in that bucket. 4 ahead of them. means goff and cousins are somewhere between 5 and 14. call them QB 10 on average. those guys both have contracts with an AAV that is higher than mahomes, and goff is actually pretty close to burrow. granted mahomes number probably goes up at some point, but goff is going to be within spitting distance. for better or for worse, that is just how it is. the QB has a disproportionate amount of leverage in the negotiation. variety of factors lead to the QBs having the leverage.

And what would you propose, short of league wide collusion, to adjust the balance?

 

[BeastGoGrrr]

Interesting take.

Can you explain your statistical research? How did you quantify "good"? How did you "weight" different attributes, and did the weight proportions change as the game evolved? Did you factor in league expansion when teams were added? Was overall team talent l, irrespective of QB considered? Were there QBs that were "good" at some point in their career, but not at other points, for example was it situationally dependant of team change,etc.?

That sounds like a mountain of a task you undertook there, brother. Kudos to your dedication. I would love if you could DM me a copy of that research, or a spreadsheet of the results, listing the QB by name, year and team.

Or are you just pulling crap out of the air?

2015- Rodgers/Big Ben/ Luck/ Brady/ Brees/ Manning/ Romo/R. WILSON/ Rivers/ Ryan/ Eli Manning/ Stafford

There's 12. The others are QBS teams could or would realistically look to move on from or just weren't that good.
Flacco/ Newton/ Tannehill/Alex Smith/Palmer/Kaepernick/ Bridgewater/Carr/Foles/ Bradford/Dalton/ Cutler/ Geno Smith/ Hoyer/Cassel/ Griffin/ Manziel/Winston/ Marriota/ Bartlesville.

2010- Manning/ Rodgers/ Brees/ Rivers/ Vick/ Brady/Eli/ Ryan/ McNabb and Big Ben.

That's 10 there

The rest-
Schaubb/ Freeman/ Palmer/Flacco/ Garrard/Cutler/Cassel/ Orton/ Fitzpatrick/Sanchez/ Bradford/ Henne/Hasselbeck ( could include with the top 10 making it 11)/ Hill/ Kitna/ Campbell/Alex Smith/ Brett Favre ( at this time of career)/Collins/ Anderson/ Romo( Injured most of season)Mccoy.

Of course it's subjective.

But I see the point the poster was making.

There are definitely fringe QBS both years. But comparatively there appears to be a diferrence corroborating the OPS post.

Of course, again, it's subjective. And as you know, you can't really prove a subjective argument one way or the other.

 

[MARINO1384]

per the point i have been going back and forth on w Mach 2, you have cousins and goff as tier 2, but you have 10 total QBs in that bucket. 4 ahead of them. means goff and cousins are somewhere between 5 and 14. call them QB 10 on average. those guys both have contracts with an AAV that is higher than mahomes, and goff is actually pretty close to burrow. granted mahomes number probably goes up at some point, but goff is going to be within spitting distance. for better or for worse, that is just how it is. the QB has a disproportionate amount of leverage in the negotiation. variety of factors lead to the QBs having the leverage.

Should change it and it’s really Mahomes alone at 1 then Allen/burrow/lamar at tier 2. I don’t think any of the 5-14 guys are far off from the Allen/burrow/lamar category as well. Those three have been blessed with some huge help from defense with Allen having a top 5 defense 5 out of last 6 years and Lamar having top 5 3 out of 5 with 1st overal 2 out of last 3. As for Burrow the 50% IR rate is a solid reason to group him with the rest of the group.

Salaries don’t really mean much almost always the latest guy gets a bigger deal not to mention Allen and Mahomes signed pre YouTube/streaming deals. We had such a big increase from this years cap to this upcoming season that the extra money was split between this upcoming and 2025. 20 million was expected by cba. Nfl made so much money this year due to new deals that they added an additional 10 million to this upcoming and an additional 10 million with be added next year as they didn’t want to completely go overboard and add it to all one year. That’s never been done before in nfl history where they made so much money they couldn’t just include it in next years cap increase and had to be spread over 2 years.

Not much of a surpise that when the cap goes up 45 million in 2 years and expected 70 in 3 years for next year that a solid chunk goes to the latest qbs.

 

[phinsforlife]

And what would you propose, short of league wide collusion, to adjust the balance?

as for this question, that is a different issue. i more or less said it is what it is, and the way the league is structured now the qb has a disproportionate amount of leverage. how i think it could or should be changed would be an entirely different question, well beyond the scope of this thread, and it would probably give me and everyone else a popsicle headache.

as far as your mahomes point, i already acknowledged his number will go up. so if he goes from 45 to 58, that would still leave goff at 92% of mahomes, when he is nowhere near 92% of the QB, even though his relative QB rating says he is. goff will still be nearly the same as burrow, when there is not a massive time difference. the payroll curve between QB 1-10 is alot flatter than the talent curve between 1-10, in my view. the qbs just have alot of leverage, and they use it. running backs and safeties are in the opposite boat. heck you can get mostert, who put up some of the best numbers in the NFL, for almost nothing!

 

[Feverdream]

And what would you propose, short of league wide collusion, to adjust the balance?

I have a theory... but it's a longterm fix, and it won't help our problem with Tua.

The Player's Association and the NFL can address this in the next negotiation. I believe there needs to be a maximum pay schedule coupled with a plan that distributes unspent cap to the other players on the team.

Radical? Yes, but we've reached a point where 4 or 5 players take most of a team's cap, while 30-40 players are stuck making vet minimum.

This isn't good for MOST of the NFL players.

The Players Association has done a marvelous job of negotiating a system that gives the players a set % of revenue, but now it needs to negotiate a system that divides this money more equitably. It really has reached a point where there is no team anymore... just I, I, and me.

 

[PappyK]

The fact is.. every year some qb's reset the market and better qb's make less on existing contracts.
Look at the highest paid qb's in history and most have only 1 superbowl win or none at all.
Kirk Cousins has managed to be the fifth highest paid ever and never made it to one.

NFL Quarterback Career Earnings | Over The Cap

NFL quarterback career earnings for all active and historical NFL players

overthecap.com

 

[phinsforlife]

I have a theory... but it's a longterm fix, and it won't help our problem with Tua.

The Player's Association and the NFL can address this in the next negotiation. I believe there needs to be a maximum pay schedule coupled with a plan that distributes unspent cap to the other players on the team.

Radical? Yes, but we've reached a point where 4 or 5 players take most of a team's cap, while 30-40 players are stuck making vet minimum.

This isn't good for MOST of the NFL players.

The Players Association has done a marvelous job of negotiating a system that gives the players a set % of revenue, but now it needs to negotiate a system that divides this money more equitably. It really has reached a point where there is no team anymore... just I, I, and me.

so i didnt want to get into this, but i directionally agree. sort of a max % of cap any player can take up. the QBs make the most money per year, and have the longest careers. other positions dont get paid much money, and might only have 3-4 year careers, like a lot of rbs. i am far from a communist. but because the QBs now make so much money, players at other positions really do get screwed. the key issue is the rules have changed so much, they massively favor the QB. this then has turned into QB salary. ergo the rules of the game have increased the QB salaries, it is not that the QBs themselves have become better at a faster rate than the other positional players. the money was much more evenly spread before all of the rules changes, because the QB under the old rules did not make as much difference under the new rules where you cant play defense and running is also devalued because passing is easier. basically the rules changes devalued other players. the players should be in favor for this type of thing. as long as the total cap does not change, and keeps increasing at the same rate, it would mean more money spread to other players at other positions, who have shorter careers and put their bodies at more risk. it would also mean a few dominant teams. imagine KC but with the money left over to sign and keep more players? i think the NFL hates this idea, they sort of love parity. i like the old school way where there were a few awesome teams. would it really kill the QB if they could only make $35mm per year, over their 15 year career?

 

[Mach2]

as for this question, that is a different issue. i more or less said it is what it is, and the way the league is structured now the qb has a disproportionate amount of leverage. how i think it could or should be changed would be an entirely different question, well beyond the scope of this thread, and it would probably give me and everyone else a popsicle headache.

as far as your mahomes point, i already acknowledged his number will go up. so if he goes from 45 to 58, that would still leave goff at 92% of mahomes, when he is nowhere near 92% of the QB, even though his relative QB rating says he is. goff will still be nearly the same as burrow, when there is not a massive time difference. the payroll curve between QB 1-10 is alot flatter than the talent curve between 1-10, in my view. the qbs just have alot of leverage, and they use it. running backs and safeties are in the opposite boat. heck you can get mostert, who put up some of the best numbers in the NFL, for almost nothing!

The flaw in that is that there aren't multiple "Mahomes" available. There aren't multiple tier 1 QBs available. There aren't even that many tier 2 QBs available. That's why they command what you see as "more than they are worth".

A simple analogy.

You can buy a bottle of water in any convenience store for a buck.

What would you pay in the middle of a desert, under the hot sun?

 

[phinsforlife]

The flaw in that is that there aren't multiple "Mahomes" available. There aren't multiple tier 1 QBs available. There aren't even that many tier 2 QBs available. That's why they command what you see as "more than they are worth".

A simple analogy.

You can buy a bottle of water in any convenience store for a buck.

What would you pay in the middle of a desert, under the hot sun?

well that is exactly my point and why QBs have a disproportionate amount of leverage. mahomes is a giant bottle of water, basically a full barrell of it. goff might be a teaspoon of water. but if you are about to die in the desert, you would give up your life savings for the teaspoon of water. that is the leverage QBs now have. even though QB 10 is nowhere close to QB 1, they get paid in a way that is not materially different for all practical purposes. i think it sucks, but that is what the league is.

 

[MARINO1384]

2015- Rodgers/Big Ben/ Luck/ Brady/ Brees/ Manning/ Romo/R. WILSON/ Rivers/ Ryan/ Eli Manning/ Stafford

There's 12. The others are QBS teams could or would realistically look to move on from or just weren't that good.
Flacco/ Newton/ Tannehill/Alex Smith/Palmer/Kaepernick/ Bridgewater/Carr/Foles/ Bradford/Dalton/ Cutler/ Geno Smith/ Hoyer/Cassel/ Griffin/ Manziel/Winston/ Marriota/ Bartlesville.

2010- Manning/ Rodgers/ Brees/ Rivers/ Vick/ Brady/Eli/ Ryan/ McNabb and Big Ben.

That's 10 there

The rest-
Schaubb/ Freeman/ Palmer/Flacco/ Garrard/Cutler/Cassel/ Orton/ Fitzpatrick/Sanchez/ Bradford/ Henne/Hasselbeck ( could include with the top 10 making it 11)/ Hill/ Kitna/ Campbell/Alex Smith/ Brett Favre ( at this time of career)/Collins/ Anderson/ Romo( Injured most of season)Mccoy.

Of course it's subjective.

But I see the point the poster was making.

There are definitely fringe QBS both years. But comparatively there appears to be a diferrence corroborating the OPS post.

Of course, again, it's subjective. And as you know, you can't really prove a subjective argument one way or the other.

Thank you didn’t have the time when writing. Here’s another almost a decade back.

2001- Brady/Manning/Warner/Garcia/Farve/McNair/Mcnabb/ Culpepper (although not sure if it was actually him or moss)

Move on from to straight trash category Chris chandler/Brummell/Stewart/fielder/Plummer/griese/collins/Johnson/batch/brooks/Miller/flutie/van pelt/Trent green/grbac/Weinke/kitna/banks/couch/old man Vinny T

It almost holds true throughout history usually there’s about 5-10 guys that stand out but then there’s a pretty big fall off or it goes to straight garbage.

I was pretty strict with my original list as well leaving off guys like Mayfield who just went on a run in the playoffs and had a 4k 28 td 10 int season. Also left off Geno Smith who had a solid 3600 yard 20 td 9 ints and in 2022 threw for almost 4300 30 tds and 11 ints.

I’d argue that the guys I left off and would be the 18/19 in mayfield and Smith are better than most previous years 10-12 spot guys.

 

[BeastGoGrrr]

Thank you didn’t have the time when writing. Here’s another almost a decade back.

2001- Brady/Manning/Warner/Garcia/Farve/McNair/Mcnabb/ Culpepper (although not sure if it was actually him or moss)

Move on from to straight trash category Chris chandler/Brummell/Stewart/fielder/Plummer/griese/collins/Johnson/batch/brooks/Miller/flutie/van pelt/Trent green/grbac/Weinke/kitna/banks/couch/old man Vinny T

It almost holds true throughout history usually there’s about 5-10 guys that stand out but then there’s a pretty big fall off or it goes to straight garbage.

I was pretty strict with my original list as well leaving off guys like Mayfield who just went on a run in the playoffs and had a 4k 28 td 10 int season. Also left off Geno Smith who had a solid 3600 yard 20 td 9 ints and in 2022 threw for almost 4300 30 tds and 11 ints.

I’d argue that the guys I left off and would be the 18/19 in mayfield and Smith are better than most previous years 10-12 spot guys.

Yeah, there are definitely those fringe players. Guys like Vick and Hasselback would come down to personal opinion.

I am not considering guys that had 1 or maybe 2 good seasons ( Newton) etc.

Again, it's subjective. For me, the key is who on those lists, would I be willing to go forward with a 4-5 year contract.

Hasselback, was a personal fav of mine.

You can make the case that in today's game, Cousins is good enough.
But I never would have considered guys like Cutler/ Flacco etc. I would be continuously trying to upgrade.

Back even just 9 years ago, there appeared to be a distinct diferrence in 1-10 to 11-20 to 20-30.

In today's game the top 1 is east. The next 7 are debatable. But IMO, 8-17 are interchangeable based on opinion and preference.

There just seems to be more active good QBS you could win with and feel comfortable you can win with in today's game.

 

[phinsforlife]

Thank you didn’t have the time when writing. Here’s another almost a decade back.

2001- Brady/Manning/Warner/Garcia/Farve/McNair/Mcnabb/ Culpepper (although not sure if it was actually him or moss)

Move on from to straight trash category Chris chandler/Brummell/Stewart/fielder/Plummer/griese/collins/Johnson/batch/brooks/Miller/flutie/van pelt/Trent green/grbac/Weinke/kitna/banks/couch/old man Vinny T

It almost holds true throughout history usually there’s about 5-10 guys that stand out but then there’s a pretty big fall off or it goes to straight garbage.

I was pretty strict with my original list as well leaving off guys like Mayfield who just went on a run in the playoffs and had a 4k 28 td 10 int season. Also left off Geno Smith who had a solid 3600 yard 20 td 9 ints and in 2022 threw for almost 4300 30 tds and 11 ints.

I’d argue that the guys I left off and would be the 18/19 in mayfield and Smith are better than most previous years 10-12 spot guys.

re one of the QBs on this list, from back when football was football and the QBs could actually get hit. i was playing golf. i ordered a water. went to grab it from the bar. had a sip, and immediately gagged and spit it out. it was a cup full of straight vodka with ice. which the QB in question had ordered, then he got pissed at me for drinking his vodka. the guy apparently was a mess. probably some combination of straight mess, and maybe too many hits to the head

 

[phinsforlife]

Yeah, there are definitely those fringe players. Guys like Vick and Hasselback would come down to personal opinion.

I am not considering guys that had 1 or maybe 2 good seasons ( Newton) etc.

Again, it's subjective. For me, the key is who on those lists, would I be willing to go forward with a 4-5 year contract.

Hasselback, was a personal fav of mine.

You can make the case that in today's game, Cousins is good enough.
But I never would have considered guys like Cutler/ Flacco etc. I would be continuously trying to upgrade.

Back even just 9 years ago, there appeared to be a distinct diferrence in 1-10 to 11-20 to 20-30.

In today's game the top 1 is east. The next 7 are debatable. But IMO, 8-17 are interchangeable based on opinion and preference.

There just seems to be more active good QBS you could win with and feel comfortable you can win with in today's game.

i think given the rules changes, a lot easier to play QB now than it used to be. therefore more QBs have the appearance of being pretty darn good than they used to. it is kind of like i can dunk equivalently to shaq on an 8 foot hoop, but i can't dunk at all on a regulation hoop.

 

[BeastGoGrrr]

i think given the rules changes, a lot easier to play QB now than it used to be. therefore more QBs have the appearance of being pretty darn good than they used to. it is kind of like i can dunk equivalently to shaq on an 8 foot hoop, but i can't dunk at all on a regulation hoop.

That's true and a good point.

But a turd is a turd.

Ray Lucas or Mark Sanchez, no matter the changes would not be successful in today's game IMO.

 

[TheMageGandalf]

I have a theory... but it's a longterm fix, and it won't help our problem with Tua.

The Player's Association and the NFL can address this in the next negotiation. I believe there needs to be a maximum pay schedule coupled with a plan that distributes unspent cap to the other players on the team.

Radical? Yes, but we've reached a point where 4 or 5 players take most of a team's cap, while 30-40 players are stuck making vet minimum.

This isn't good for MOST of the NFL players.

The Players Association has done a marvelous job of negotiating a system that gives the players a set % of revenue, but now it needs to negotiate a system that divides this money more equitably. It really has reached a point where there is no team anymore... just I, I, and me.

Awesome post Fever bravo