The Dolphins Running Back Room Will Be?

[Atila]

I basically used your words back at you, so I'm sure you do know how or why. But if you want me to explain it, I will. When you make comments like I "must be lost" and "this is a strange convo" and I was defending a "dumbass decision" you should realize that it comes off as snarky and condescending, which is why I sent your language back at you.

And I suppose I did find it a little irritating when you threw out a fake stat about throwing 75% of the time when that wasn't true or close to true. The stats reflect the facts about how often the Dolphins threw and how often they were successful. Yes, we can all cite them but it seems some of "us" cite completely fake made-up stats and others cite real ones. I'm in the latter camp.

Compared to the league average of pass/rush ratio on 3rd and short the Dolphins threw 6 times more over the course of the season. I pointed out that one should at least consider the 6-7 big plays that the Dolphins got on some of those pass plays. I have said several times that I personally would have preferred them to run more, but it's silly to suggest that there is no value to 78 and 31 yd TDs, or even 17-22 yard completions.

The dolphins passing the 2nd most in the NFL at 3rd and short IS a dumbass decision, though… especially since, as you pointed out, we were especially good at converting when running the ball.

I was notating out how odd it was that you were so eloquently explaining how effective we were running the ball, then explaining why passing the ball on 3rd and short is not “opening up the running game” etc etc… it was all nicely laid out… and then you were taking the opposite side.

Ultimately, when you want to look at places Miami’s offense can improve, I’m sure one of the easy ones to bring up is “get better than league average at 3rd and short”. I’m sure we’ll all agree on that overall.

 

[Fineas]

The dolphins passing the 2nd most in the NFL at 3rd and short IS a dumbass decision, though… especially since, as you pointed out, we were especially good at converting when running the ball.

I was notating out how odd it was that you were so eloquently explaining how effective we were running the ball, then explaining why passing the ball on 3rd and short is not “opening up the running game” etc etc… it was all nicely laid out… and then you were taking the opposite side.

Ultimately, when you want to look at places Miami’s offense can improve, I’m sure one of the easy ones to bring up is “get better than league average at 3rd and short”. I’m sure we’ll all agree on that overall.

No, it's not "A" decision, it is a result of multiple different decisions. Again, EVERY team throws sometimes on 3rd and short. No team runs all the time. If we are comparing to the league average, the Dolphins threw 6 times more than "expected". Some of those worked out phenomenally well, like the 78 yd TD and the 31 yd TD.

The Dolphins' pass attempts on 3rd and 1-2 resulted in a positive EPA differential of 0.24 per play, so overall they were successful. In terms of total EPA, those pass plays resulted in an EPA/play of 2.22. The Dolphins' rush attempts on 3rd and 1-2 resulted in a negative EPA differential (-0.08 per play), so overall they were unsuccessful. In terms of total EPA, those rush attempts resulted in an EPA/play of 2.14. So looking at the big picture, the 3rd and short passes were more successful in terms of adding points (hypothetical based on many years of NFL data) than their runs on 3rd and short.

Nonetheless. as I have said, I would personally prefer more runs, if they are the right kind of runs.

 

[phinsforlife]

No, it's not "A" decision, it is a result of multiple different decisions. Again, EVERY team throws sometimes on 3rd and short. No team runs all the time. If we are comparing to the league average, the Dolphins threw 6 times more than "expected". Some of those worked out phenomenally well, like the 78 yd TD and the 31 yd TD.

The Dolphins' pass attempts on 3rd and 1-2 resulted in a positive EPA differential of 0.24 per play, so overall they were successful. In terms of total EPA, those pass plays resulted in an EPA/play of 2.22. The Dolphins' rush attempts on 3rd and 1-2 resulted in a negative EPA differential (-0.08 per play), so overall they were unsuccessful. In terms of total EPA, those rush attempts resulted in an EPA/play of 2.14. So looking at the big picture, the 3rd and short passes were more successful in terms of adding points (hypothetical based on many years of NFL data) than their runs on 3rd and short.

Nonetheless. as I have said, I would personally prefer more runs, if they are the right kind of runs.

-do you know which games, and at which point in the game, the 78 yd TD and the 31 yd TD, occurred in?

-I think EPA is a terrible way to measure the success of third down plays. i mentioned this before, if you pass and average 4 yards a play but only convert 50% of third downs that is less good than averaging 0.9 yards a play, but converting 90% of third downs.

 

[Fineas]

-do you know which games, and at which point in the game, the 78 yd TD and the 31 yd TD, occurred in?

-I think EPA is a terrible way to measure the success of third down plays. i mentioned this before, if you pass and average 4 yards a play but only convert 50% of third downs that is less good than averaging 0.9 yards a play, but converting 90% of third downs.

The 78 yarder was at the beginning of the Washington game. The 31 yarder was in the 4th quarter of the Patriots game when it was a on-score game.

Your second comment suggests maybe you don't understand how EPA works. An average of 4 yards per play will not have a meaningfully higher ePA than a 1 yard per play if it results in a first down. So using your example, EPA would indicate that the run plays are better plays. But a 78 yard or 31 yard TD does have a much higher EPA than 1 yard runs and I don't think anyone could seriously argue to the contrary.

 

[Mach2]

-do you know which games, and at which point in the game, the 78 yd TD and the 31 yd TD, occurred in?

-I think EPA is a terrible way to measure the success of third down plays. i mentioned this before, if you pass and average 4 yards a play but only convert 50% of third downs that is less good than averaging 0.9 yards a play, but converting 90% of third downs.

Agree with you in that EPA isn't really a good indicator in this case.

I am a believer in advanced analytics, but there's a time and place.

It's obvious to me that McD didn't have confidence in the Oline to convert against heavy boxes.

 

[gregorygrant83]

For anyone who questions Jaylen Wright's size... Wright is listed 5'11, 210 pounds with a 4.35 40-time. When he was drafted, Christian McCaffrey was listed at 5'11, 205 pounds (now listed at 210) and also ran in the 4.35 range. Obviously having similar size and speed as another player doesn't mean you're going to have the same success, but it should be fun to see Wright grow in this offense.

 

[phinsforlife]

The 78 yarder was at the beginning of the Washington game. The 31 yarder was in the 4th quarter of the Patriots game when it was a on-score game.

Your second comment suggests maybe you don't understand how EPA works. An average of 4 yards per play will not have a meaningfully higher ePA than a 1 yard per play if it results in a first down. So using your example, EPA would indicate that the run plays are better plays. But a 78 yard or 31 yard TD does have a much higher EPA than 1 yard runs and I don't think anyone could seriously argue to the contrary.

you have a good memory. even though i am arguing against it, i think that play was one of my personal highlights of the year, especially because it was against the Rats. i was trying to find the video with the angle that focuses on tua, with music playing in the background. tua knew it was a td the second he threw the ball. i think there is another angle of mcdaniel, he seemed to know it would be a td the second he called the play:

Can't-Miss Play: Tua Tagovailoa's Throws 31-Yard TD Pass to Jaylen Waddle

 

[gregorygrant83]

If Wright and Achane kill it in training camp and preseason, I wonder if there's a chance Miami would trade Mostert to a rb needy team eithe before the season starts or before the trade deadline? Not that I want Mostert gone, but if you're trying to get more carries for your two young studs and a good offer comes in for Mostert, I might at least consider it. I think a running back room of Achane, Wright, Chris Brooks and Jeff Wilson could still be very effective.

 

[Fineas]

you have a good memory. even though i am arguing against it, i think that play was one of my personal highlights of the year, especially because it was against the Rats. i was trying to find the video with the angle that focuses on tua, with music playing in the background. tua knew it was a td the second he threw the ball. i think there is another angle of mcdaniel, he seemed to know it would be a td the second he called the play:

Can't-Miss Play: Tua Tagovailoa's Throws 31-Yard TD Pass to Jaylen Waddle

The 78 yarder was fun too.

 

[Mach2]

If Wright and Achane kill it in training camp and preseason, I wonder if there's a chance Miami would trade Mostert to a rb needy team eithe before the season starts or before the trade deadline? Not that I want Mostert gone, but if you're trying to get more carries for your two young studs and a good offer comes in for Mostert, I might at least consider it. I think a running back room of Achane, Wright, Chris Brooks and Jeff Wilson could still be very effective.

Now that would be a foolish, as well as a "dick" move, IMO.

You have an unproven rookie, and a second year player who, while spectacular in limited snaps, spent a good part of the season on the injury report.

Just exactly what do you think you would get for a 32 yr old back who's whole career has been spent in one specific system?

 

[phinsforlife]

The 78 yarder was fun too.

yes the 78 yarder was fun. this also was the game i think things started to break down for miami for the rest of the season. that washington game we relied on a lot of big plays. that works against terrible teams. not much in the way of matriculating the ball downfield in an orderly fashion. after the washington game, we played the titans, and you know what happened in that game and after that. i am a big fan of mcdaniel, but he is not perfect. still young, not a lot of experience. to win against better teams, and in the playoffs, and on the road, cannot rely on the big play as much as we were, including a fair bit of the third down passing in my view. there is a happy medium to everything. i think we went too far to one guardrail, and would like to see a bit more balance, both in terms of play calling, and also the type of players including a few more big and nasty types as opposed to the finesse guys.

 

[phinsforlife]

If Wright and Achane kill it in training camp and preseason, I wonder if there's a chance Miami would trade Mostert to a rb needy team eithe before the season starts or before the trade deadline? Not that I want Mostert gone, but if you're trying to get more carries for your two young studs and a good offer comes in for Mostert, I might at least consider it. I think a running back room of Achane, Wright, Chris Brooks and Jeff Wilson could still be very effective.

even if that scenario happens in training camp and pre-season, i would not give it enough weight to displace a veteran like mostert, who has also been a good guy in the locker room. i could see parting ways with him next season if this happens and at the same time mosterts age finally seems to have caught up to him. but i think as long as mostert keeps performing, he is a lock for the roster

 

[gregorygrant83]

Now that would be a foolish, as well as a "dick" move, IMO.

Why would it be a dick move? Mostert would still get his money and could be traded to a good team in need of a rb? For example, let's say the Bengals find themselves in need of a starting caliber rb. Again, I'm not saying I want to trade Mostert, just wondering if it would be on the table if Achane and Wright look like they're both ready for a 10-15 carries per game each this season?

 

[Mach2]

Why would it be a dick move? Mostert would still get his money and could be traded to a good team in need of a rb? For example, let's say the Bengals find themselves in need of a starting caliber rb. Again, I'm not saying I want to trade Mostert, just wondering if it would be on the table if Achane and Wright look like they're both ready for a 10-15 carries per game each this season?

Revisit my original post. I elaborated in an edit after you read my reply.

The dick move part was due to the fact that he just had a career year, setting all time Dolphins records. He is also relatively cheap.

I think jettisoning him for what, at most, would be a day three pick is a bit disrespectful, given the circumstances.

I mean I could see it if he were making big money, or could Garner a rd2, but that ain't happening.

 

[djphinfan]

Why would it be a dick move? Mostert would still get his money and could be traded to a good team in need of a rb? For example, let's say the Bengals find themselves in need of a starting caliber rb. Again, I'm not saying I want to trade Mostert, just wondering if it would be on the table if Achane and Wright look like they're both ready for a 10-15 carries per game each this season?

yeah everyone is for sale just call