1st overall picks past 20 years

[The Ghost]

Only 2 teams get to go to the big show and the Patriots have been to most of them in the past couple of decades. The team with the least amount of 1st rounders.

So your saying getting the premier QB prospect and not worrying about 1st round picks is the way to go.

I agree.

zillow.com/farmlistings. Someone want to help me sell the farm?

 

[Locke]

This is misleading because bad teams pick first so a lot of these players are starting their career handicapped compared to their peers. Pure talent can’t overcome a toxic organization.

 

[Notso]

You put Matt Ryan up there instead of Jake Long and we wouldn't be sitting here having this conversation.

I bet we would be....

 

[NBP81]

This is misleading because bad teams pick first so a lot of these players are starting their career handicapped compared to their peers. Pure talent can’t overcome a toxic organization.

And even then... Does anyone really think the list gets better as we go through the draft?

 

[Kyndig]

You put Matt Ryan up there instead of Jake Long and we wouldn't be sitting here having this conversation.

Umm, not sure I understand what you are saying. This is a list of the first overall picks from 2019 till 2020 regardless of position, it was who was picked number 1 overall. We had the 1st round pick that year as Cam Cameron had just delivered our worst season ever at 1-15. Parcels was a coward, and selected Jake Long over Matt Ryan, and I was pissed when he made the selection. So, not sure what your point is here?

 

[Kyndig]

This is misleading because bad teams pick first so a lot of these players are starting their career handicapped compared to their peers. Pure talent can’t overcome a toxic organization.

Again, the point is simply to examine whether it is worth trading up from 5 to 1 or 3 or 2 Or whatever based on looking at draft history over the past 20 years. That was the point.

 

[Locke]

Again, the point is simply to examine whether it is worth trading up from 5 to 1 or 3 or 2 Or whatever based on looking at draft history over the past 20 years. That was the point.

But the point is anything but simple. You can’t look at that list and point at busts in a vacuum. Would Jake Long be out of the league if he went to a team with a coach that was smart enough not to play his All Pro left tackle in the second half of a preseason game? Would Eli Manning have won 2 Super Bowls if he stayed with San Diego, a much worse organization than NYG? It’s not black and white.

 

[royalshank]

Nice post OP. I didn’t realize Fischer was no 1 overall. He’s good but far from great. One thing - Andrew Luck was a lot better than Tannehill and absolutely worth the no 1 pick in draft.

 

[Kyndig]

But the point is anything but simple. You can’t look at that list and point at busts in a vacuum. Would Jake Long be out of the league if he went to a team with a coach that was smart enough not to play his All Pro left tackle in the second half of a preseason game? Would Eli Manning have won 2 Super Bowls if he stayed with San Diego, a much worse organization than NYG? It’s not black and white.

I never said it was simple, nor did I deal in hypotheticals. Jake Long was not a better selection than Matt Ryan for a number of reasons not the least of which, you shouldn’t draft an Otackle with the number 1 overall pick when you have a shot at a franchise QB and you don’t have a franchise QB on your roster. It doesn’t matter what team Jake Long went to, the fact is, he wasn’t worth the overal number one pick, and if we were picking 5th In that draft instead of 1st, he wouldn’t have been worth trading up to select.

Most of those players wouldn’t have been worth trading up for except for a handful. My point is armed with the gift of hindsight you can see that it is usually not worth the price to trade up to that position, that was my point.

 

[Locke]

I never said it was simple, nor did I deal in hypotheticals. Jake Long was not a better selection than Matt Ryan for a number of reasons not the least of which, you shouldn’t draft an Otackle with the number 1 overall pick when you have a shot at a franchise QB and you don’t have a franchise QB on your roster. It doesn’t matter what team Jake Long went to, the fact is, he wasn’t worth the overal number one pick, and if we were picking 5th In that draft instead of 1st, he wouldn’t have been worth trading up to select.

Most of those players wouldn’t have been worth trading up for except for a handful. My point is armed with the gift of hindsight you can see that it is usually not worth the price to trade up to that position, that was my point.

You’re making blanket statements that could never be proven or disproven.

And I actually agree with you that we shouldn’t trade up to 1.

 

[royalshank]

I never said it was simple, nor did I deal in hypotheticals. Jake Long was not a better selection than Matt Ryan for a number of reasons not the least of which, you shouldn’t draft an Otackle with the number 1 overall pick when you have a shot at a franchise QB and you don’t have a franchise QB on your roster. It doesn’t matter what team Jake Long went to, the fact is, he wasn’t worth the overal number one pick, and if we were picking 5th In that draft instead of 1st, he wouldn’t have been worth trading up to select.

Most of those players wouldn’t have been worth trading up for except for a handful. My point is armed with the gift of hindsight you can see that it is usually not worth the price to trade up to that position, that was my point.

I think the game had passed Parcels by - taking LT at No 1 overall for was barely a good idea in 2008. It’s a terrible idea now. And Long was truly great. And I don’t like Matt Ryan but as you say the shot of a franchise QB is the better pick unless you already have one.

 

[Kyndig]

I think the game had passed Parcels by - taking LT at No 1 overall for was barely a good idea in 2008. It’s a terrible idea now. And Long was truly great. And I don’t like Matt Ryan but as you say the shot of a franchise QB is the better pick unless you already have one.

Looks pretty good to me.

Matt Ryan stats
Career stats

Year	Team	CMP%	YDS	TD	INT	Rating
2019	Falcons	66.2	4,466	26	14	92.1
2018	Falcons	69.4	4,924	35	7	108.1
2017	Falcons	64.7	4,095	20	12	91.4
2016	Falcons	69.9	4,944	38	7	117.1
2015	Falcons	66.3	4,591	21	16	89.0
2014	Falcons	66.1	4,694	28	14	93.9
2013	Falcons	67.4	4,515	26	17	89.6
2012	Falcons	68.6	4,719	32	14	99.1
2011	Falcons	61.3	4,177	29	12	92.2
2010	Falcons	62.5	3,705	28	9	91.0
2009	Falcons	58.3	2,916	22	14	80.9
2008	Falcons	61.1	3,440	16	11	87.7
Career		65.4	51,186	321	147	94.6

 

[Padfoot]

Joe Burrow might be a special case considering the year he just had. That said, I think I once heard/read Grier make a comment to the effect of, 'if you look at the numbers, taking a QB, high is still not even a 50/50 proposition.' With that attitude, I can't imagine Grier would trade the farm to move up to #1. I don't doubt they are asking though. NFL execs can be as stupid as anyone (see Bill O'Brien), and sometimes a front office simply falls in or out of love with a specific high profile prospect. If for whatever reason, Mike Brown doesn't love Burrow, maybe he's willing to part with #1 for a lot less than most are projecting. Certainly doesn't hurt to inquire.

 

[Irishfinfan1]

Given where we are at, bottom line is if we fall in love with either Burrow or Tua we need to trade up, if it is a late 1st or early 2nd and we get our franchise QB I'm not going to complain. We can't sit at 5 unless we are happy with any of Burrow, Tua and Herbert, as the whole world knows we want to draft a QB.

 

[Awsi Dooger]

You put Matt Ryan up there instead of Jake Long and we wouldn't be sitting here having this conversation.

And if you make it 25 years instead of 20 all of a sudden guys like Peyton Manning and Orlando Pace enter the mix

I'd like to suffer with the top pick every year, as long as the team didn't earn it on the field every year