2011 Overrated/Underrated Prospects

[Pachyderm_Wave]

I figured I'd put together a list of a few of the more overrated/underrated SENIOR prospects for the 2011 NFL Draft. There's actually a couple of my "overrated" guys that I can find certain strengths in and even like to a lesser extent.. but not nearly to the capacity that they will surely be hyped during the season and leading up to the draft.

This is strictly a list of SENIOR prospects... but I'd like to do one for the underclassmen also at some point...






Quarterbacks:


Overrated -- Jerrod Johnson / Texas A&M ------ Case Keenum / Houston

Underrated -- Nathan Enderle / Idaho ------ Ben Chappell / Indiana




Runningbacks:


Overrated -- Evan Royster / Penn St. ------ DeMarco Murray / Oklahoma

Underrated -- Allen Bradford / USC ------ Damien Berry / Miami ------ Robert Hughes / Notre Dame ------ Delone Carter / Syracuse




Wide Receivers:

Overrated -- Terrance Tolliver / LSU ------ Dwayne Harris / ECU

Underrated -- Gerald Jones / Tennessee ------ Greg Childs / Arkansas ------ Arman Binns / Cincinnati




Tight Ends:

Overrated -- N/A

Underrated -- D.J. Williams / Arkansas ------ Jeff Anderson / UAB




Offensive Tackles:

Overrated -- Gabe Carimi / Wisconsin ------ Nate Solder / Colorado

Underrated -- Derek Sherrod / Mississippi St. ------ DeMarcus Love / Arkansas ------ James Carpenter / Alabama




Offensive Guards:

Overrated -- N/A

Underrated -- Orlando Franklin / Miami ------ Ben Ijalana / Villanova




Centers:

Overrated -- N/A

Underrated -- Mike Brewster / Ohio St. ------ John Moffitt / Wisconsin




Defensive Ends:

Overrated -- Allen Bailey / Miami

Underrated -- Pernell McPhee / Mississippi St. ------ Ryan Kerrigan / Purdue ------ Cliff Matthews / South Carolina




Defensive Tackles:

Overrated -- Marvin Austin / North Carolina

Underrated -- Stephen Paea / Oregon St. ------ Christian Ballard / Iowa ------ Drake Nevis / LSU ------ Jarvis Jenkins / Clemson




Outside Linebackers:

Overrated -- Bruce Carter / North Carolina ------ Von Miller / Texas A&M

Underrated ------ K.J. Wright / Mississippi St.




Inside Linebackers:

Overrated -- Obi Ezeh / Michigan

Underrated -- Josh Bynes / Auburn




Cornerbacks:

Overrated -- Kendric Burney / North Carolina ------ Devon Torrence / Ohio St.

Underrated -- Johnny Patrick / Louisville ------ Charles Brown / North Carolina ------ Jimmy Smith / Colorado




Safeties:

Overrated -- N/A

Underrated -- Jay Valai / Wisconsin

 

[greasyObnoxious]

i think you meant 2011 draft.

anyway, i haven't been looking into the draft too much yet, but from the bit i've seen i'm not enarmored with the TE or OT class. i think interior OL will be deep, as will be WR if some of the underclassmen declare IMO.

 

[Pachyderm_Wave]

Yes 2010 season but is intended for the 2011 draft... I'll see if I can get Bob or one of the mods to change the title to 2011...

Anyway, what you have to keep in mind is that the SENIOR prospects don't have any senior tape yet... this is based entirely off of junior tape and prior... but in most cases, the players are what they are at this point in terms of translating to the next level..

Or in Royster's case for example, showed up to camp out of shape and was the only player on the team that didn't pass his physical... but even if he had passed it, he's still not 1st round material based off game film... but he's subject to be "mocked" in the 1st round throughout the process..

 

[greasyObnoxious]

i understand that, but i have to go by what's available now. a lot can and will change between now and the draft. the players' ability to translate their game to the NFL itself isn't going to get any different, but production and another year of tape will certainly give you a hint on who has the potential to do it. so as of today, there aren't a lot of senior TE's who look like they'll eventually be among the upper echelon of NFL TE's. that's partly because most of the guys simply won't get there and others haven't shown their true colours yet. Jimmy Graham was a nobody going into the senior season. he ended up in ther 3rd round.

 

[Pachyderm_Wave]

I'm not sure what you're arguing against here.... there will be players that are buried on team's depth charts that end up playing and making a name for themselves this season, whether it be to due to injuries to the starters or whatever... it happens in every draft.. It has nothing to do with this thread...

This thread is in reference to SENIOR prospects that are for the most part known commodities that I've watched play and develope over the years and have plenty of film on... some of them are overrated in terms of where they're projected... the underrated prospects are strictly some of my personal favorites that I think teams are going to come around on by the time the 2010 season is in the bag...

The senior TE class is weak.... that's not news...

 

[Pachyderm_Wave]

If you've watched any of Jeff Anderson, you'll understand why I think he's an underrated prospect at the moment... but he won't be when April gets here... He's a local guy who I've followed closely since high school and his time at UAB...

Anderson and D.J. Williams are two of my personal top senior TE prospects... Williams is basically this year's version of Aaron Hernandez... He's probably a little too short for Miami's front office to really fall in love with just like Hernandez was (at about 6'2") because they seem to like the big, tall 6'4"+ guys... and whether they can actually play football or not seems to be irrelevant...

D.J. Williams is every bit as good of a prospect as Hernandez was... although he's probably even a bit more versatile than Hernandez..

 

[greasyObnoxious]

i see what you're doing here. you're showing the discrepancy between mock drafts and the real draft for those guys in your opinion. the guys you think are "overrated" will be mocked too high based on where they are probably going to go in the real draft, "underrated" players too low.

as for Royster, i think being overrated comes with the territory of being the starting RB on a big school team. that's not to say his skillset isn't overrated as well. i don't know. i haven't seen him that much. i would love to have tons of game film and, more importantly, the time to go through it.

i'm not arguing against anything here. you went by single players, i just generalized that OT and TE don't appear to be strong. i'm well aware there are going to be good players in there, but it's going to take watching a lot of tape to find them.

 

[greasyObnoxious]

If you've watched any of Jeff Anderson, you'll understand why I think he's an underrated prospect at the moment... but he won't be when April gets here... He's a local guy who I've followed closely since high school and his time at UAB...

Anderson and D.J. Williams are two of my personal top senior TE prospects... Williams is basically this year's version of Aaron Hernandez... He's probably a little too short for Miami's front office to really fall in love with just like Hernandez was (at about 6'2") because they seem to like the big, tall 6'4"+ guys... and whether they can actually play football or not seems to be irrelevant...

D.J. Williams is every bit as good of a prospect as Hernandez was... although he's probably even a bit more versatile than Hernandez..

i'm not in the position to have a lot of tape at my disposal. besides, it's too early in the NFL season for me to get in depth with college football. i'll catch on once both seasons are in full swing, but for now i'm just happy football will be back soon.

i'll keep those guys in mind. Anderson is with UAB, right? i'll try to get a look at him and Williams.

 

[Pachyderm_Wave]

i see what you're doing here. you're showing the discrepancy between mock drafts and the real draft for those guys in your opinion. the guys you think are "overrated" will be mocked too high based on where they are probably going to go in the real draft, "underrated" players too low.

as for Royster, i think being overrated comes with the territory of being the starting RB on a big school team. that's not to say his skillset isn't overrated as well. i don't know. i haven't seen him that much. i would love to have tons of game film and, more importantly, the time to go through it.

i'm not arguing against anything here. you went by single players, i just generalized that OT and TE don't appear to be strong. i'm well aware there are going to be good players in there, but it's going to take watching a lot of tape to find them.

Yes exactly.... the point of this thread was simply to get some discussion going on about prospects in the draft forum... at least for those who have enough at their disposal to factor in the discussion.. It will also be a thread that can be revisited throughout the season as the film accumulates in order to guage development and/or regression... but also to add their own opinions on the prospects values and add their own..

To make it quick and to the point about Royster, he's a one-cut and go runner who gets caught from behind a lot and won't be fit for every team.... he belongs in a ZBS... although he does have very good lateral quickness and can make the first guy miss... but definitely not a 1st rounder...

 

[Pachyderm_Wave]

i'm not in the position to have a lot of tape at my disposal. besides, it's too early in the NFL season for me to get in depth with college football. i'll catch on once both seasons are in full swing, but for now i'm just happy football will be back soon.

i'll keep those guys in mind. Anderson is with UAB, right? i'll try to get a look at him and Williams.

Jeff Anderson is a guy who has a very good chance to end up in a Dolphin uniform come April... He has the profile that fits size, experience, production, and skillset wise... He's an underrated player playing in an overlooked conference...

D.J. Williams may or may not be exactly what Miami is looking for at the position... but he should be.. I love this kid's potential in the NFL.. There's a lot of teams that will be quite high on Williams...

 

[BobDole]

the underrated guys i like from that list are hughes, moffitt, and bynes. i'm hoping hughes will still be kinda sorta under the radar come draft time - i was hoping to maybe use a 4th on him next april. bynes is someone i'm surprised no one is talking about - kid can play. i'm surprised moffitt's name is one there - he gets a decent amount of type. mcphee and matthews are two others i thought people knew about - especially mcphee.

on the overrated side i'm right there with you. since there are so many safeties (another deep class - good for us) being hyped for next season i thought you'd have one of them on there. this class might be just as stacked or more so than the last draft - may even be legit. i won't know much until the season is going - i don't watch any tape on players. just the games for me - one day maybe.

the gators have a few safeties that i think are better prospects than major wright - and a corner who may be better than haden - gonna be keeping a close on that secondary.

 

[Pachyderm_Wave]

the underrated guys i like from that list are hughes, moffitt, and bynes. i'm hoping hughes will still be kinda sorta under the radar come draft time - i was hoping to maybe use a 4th on him next april. bynes is someone i'm surprised no one is talking about - kid can play. i'm surprised moffitt's name is one there - he gets a decent amount of type. mcphee and matthews are two others i thought people knew about - especially mcphee.

on the overrated side i'm right there with you. since there are so many safeties (another deep class - good for us) being hyped for next season i thought you'd have one of them on there. this class might be just as stacked or more so than the last draft - may even be legit. i won't know much until the season is going - i don't watch any tape on players. just the games for me - one day maybe.

the gators have a few safeties that i think are better prospects than major wright - and a corner who may be better than haden - gonna be keeping a close on that secondary.

First of all thanks for editing the title for me....


The reason I don't have any safeties as "overrated" is because I think only Deunta Williams and DeAndre McDaniel are really the only two SENIOR safety prospects that receive a fair share of hype... but none of it is undeserved in my opinion... they're both at least worth the attention they get...

McPhee is a guy that SEC fans may be familiar with, but I guarantee you most people don't even know who him or K.J. Wright is... McPhee doesn't get the hype he deserves, but I think it's due to the fact that last year was his only season in the SEC after transferring from JUCO... but the kid is a beast who is only getting better.. He'll be a top 50-60 pick by the time the draft rolls around provided he stays healthy... easily one of the best athletes at his position in the draft, what makes him worth the hype that's coming his way is that it translates onto the football field...



As for the Crocs, Will Hill has the ability to be a better prospect than Major Wright, but I'm not sure about Jenkins... I'm not buying that Haden was made by Major Wright's play nearly as much as some people are... Major Wright wasn't breaking up all those passes I graded last year.... that was Haden doing it himself..

And Haden was also the best tackling CB in the draft IMO... along with being the best blitzing CB outside of Arenas...

 

[ckparrothead]

I see some nice names on here. Directionally, I could only disagree with calling Dwayne Harris overrated. It's not that I think he's the bee's knees but I've just not seen him rated highly, like maybe a 3rd rounder I've seen him rated.

Actually it's funny but I JUST did two games of Harris' last night, along with Willie Smith that Left Tackle of theirs that should probably slim up and try and be a blocking TE.

I think his ability to always make the first guy miss, and I'm talking about games against Virginia Tech and North Carolina now, not games against scrub opponents, but that ability to make people miss is pro level. He also has pro level ability to create yards after contact, a lot like Golden Tate. His pad level is superb. He breaks tackles. He's got some vision as a Wildcat back and some ability to make tacklers miss and shake them off like Pat White could only dream of doing, and he's even got a nice arm to make some passes, but the one thing he lacks that would make me say I'm not putting him back there, is the consistent decision-making. Then again, as you say, senior prospects with no senior tape, should I give the kid a chance to be a more consistent decision-maker? I think I should.

Plucks the ball out of the sky with his hands. Doesn't need to jump in order to look the ball into his hands, he's RAC-ready right as he pulls the ball in. He's got good size. When he uses his head and leverage to fake the guy covering him, he actually looks pretty interesting. He's a slot WR at the next level but has enough size that you'd take a look at him on the outside, as East Carolina did against Virginia Tech a few times with some interesting results. He blocks like you want, through to the whistle, working his feet and being nasty with it. I saw him body slam Cody Grimm but he got called for it, and actually on replay it was just a clever play by Cody who knew he was getting dominated and so he voluntarily left his feet to draw Harris with him in hopes of getting the flag...and he got it (was a BS call). I saw him block the monstrously sized Kam Chancellor from the back side on one play for what had to be 10 to 12 seconds, enough time for the ball to completely reverse field back to Harris' side and because Harris was locked onto Kam like a pit bull he produced what should have been a TD producing block, except that one of the OLs in the backfield played a little dirty.

Now of course there's the biggest problem, that being I don't know how fast he is. I rank that problem even higher than the fact that his route selection is pretty crappy, and higher than the fact that he doesn't seem to play like a guy that knows what he's about from an X's and O's standpoint. But what's interesting is in a play where he did go to the outside and run a deep post against Rashad Carmichael, it did look like Carmichael was having a tough time keeping up with Harris. So maybe there's something there that isn't being told by a stopwatch from spring practice. Other plays though, if DaNorris Searcy is keeping up with you deep then you do wonder about deep threat ability. Of course you look at the offense and he's just not asked to run a variety of pro routes. And just as bad, he shows no tendency to recognize DB blitzes and communicate them with the QB, or to recognize the blitz and cut his route short and be on the same page with the QB. His body language can look pretty disinterested at times (in between plays). A few times I saw him out there not even knowing what the call was prior to the snap.

He's got plenty to clean up. But the RAC is so good, the tackle breaking ability is so good, and his hands and eyes appear very clean, natural at spotting the ball, attacking it with his hands and being RAC-ready as soon as he's got it...that'll keep you coming back to him and checking on whether he's improving the other stuff.

 

[Phinatic8u]

I just can't wait to see DeAndre McDainel tape again this year. Best senior S prospect this year. Dude's a beast and he goes to Clemson, which is the school i attended.

 

[Pachyderm_Wave]

I see many of the same positives in Dwayne Harris that you do.... but the biggest questions I have about him is something you touched on in your next to last paragraph...

I wonder if the kid can run a route...

... because of ALL the film I've watched on Harris, I can count the number of times he's ran an actual route on one hand... it's mostly bubble screens, with an occassional unchallenged crossing route...

To me he looks like a poor man's Percy Harvin type prospect with even LESS experience running a route tree... I like the upside with Harris but I think he's going to need a lot of developing to be an effective outside receiver in the NFL... whoever selects him is going to have to be patient...