Advanced Stats VS. Eye Ball Test

[Asicswrg85]

People who think advanced statistics are pointless are simply those who dont understand them all. Anyone who actually understands the field of statistics will never discount their importance in ANYTHING; sports or not.

 

[Zounds]

Both. In no way can I take over 10 hours a week to look at our players. For the year, that's 4 full 40 hour weeks. PFF grades are not absolute but, I know of no other source which can come close in a combo of eyeball and stats.

IMO, it makes no sense to rip them when the vast majority doing so have never seen what they offer. What I post here is only a very small portion of what they provide.

Right, but when we see guys say we should sign Joe Tackle because he had a positive 10 grade in PFF without actually watching the guy....makes me shake my head.

 

[Zounds]

People who think advanced statistics are pointless are simply those who dont understand them all. Anyone who actually understands the field of statistics will never discount their importance in ANYTHING; sports or not.

Its not that they are unimportant, its that there are no models out there they can get it right a high percentage of the time for football.

 

[Wildbill3]

People who think advanced statistics are pointless are simply those who dont understand them all. Anyone who actually understands the field of statistics will never discount their importance in ANYTHING; sports or not.

If there was any magic factor for knowing everything about football, i'm sure some people would've figured it out and built teams that would win 4 or 5 championships in a row. there is a lot to be said for the eyeball test, and for using AdVanced stats, but to ignore one or put a higher emphasis on the other, is surely missing the forrest for the trees.

 

[So Be]

Right, but when we see guys say we should sign Joe Tackle because he had a positive 10 grade in PFF without actually watching the guy....makes me shake my head.

Why? No one here has watched the guy, and it's great info. Even if anyone did, how much did they see which be better than PFF's assessment?

Let's try something here. Pick a player, any player, from last year's team. Post what you thought of that player, and I will take the time to post everything PFF has supplied, and we will compare. That sounds fair.

 

[So Be]

If there was any magic factor for knowing everything about football, i'm sure some people would've figured it out and built teams that would win 4 or 5 championships in a row. there is a lot to be said for the eyeball test, and for using AdVanced stats, but to ignore one or put a higher emphasis on the other, is surely missing the forrest for the trees.

Hell, all teams do both with full time staffs, who do this for a living, and are lucky to hit 50% in the draft.

 

[Zounds]

Why? No one here has watched the guy, and it's great info. Even if anyone did, how much did they see which be better than PFF's assessment?

Let's try something here. Pick a player, any player, from last year's team. Post what you thought of that player, and I will take the time to post everything PFF has supplied, and we will compare. That sounds fair.

Ive subscribed to PFF before.....been there done that. No idea where they get some of their grades from. Sometimes they get close, other times they are way off.

But what PFF supplies isnt the "advanced stats" we are talking about. Giving a guy a -1,0,1, or 2 grade for each snap isn't what people are talking about with advanced statistical modeling.

 

[So Be]

Ive subscribed to PFF before.....been there done that. No idea where they get some of their grades from. Sometimes they get close, other times they are way off.

But what PFF supplies isnt the "advanced stats" we are talking about. Giving a guy a -1,0,1, or 2 grade for each snap isn't what people are talking about with advanced statistical modeling.

True but, their signature stats are in that category.

 

[Rev Kev]

Ive subscribed to PFF before.....been there done that. No idea where they get some of their grades from. Sometimes they get close, other times they are way off.

But what PFF supplies isnt the "advanced stats" we are talking about. Giving a guy a -1,0,1, or 2 grade for each snap isn't what people are talking about with advanced statistical modeling.

Exactly -> Burke is talking about the Metric itself

 

[Asicswrg85]

If there was any magic factor for knowing everything about football, i'm sure some people would've figured it out and built teams that would win 4 or 5 championships in a row. there is a lot to be said for the eyeball test, and for using AdVanced stats, but to ignore one or put a higher emphasis on the other, is surely missing the forrest for the trees.

Never did I say that one was more important, my post was for those who think statistics have zero value

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---------- Post added at 03:01 PM ---------- Previous post was at 03:00 PM ----------

Its not that they are unimportant, its that there are no models out there they can get it right a high percentage of the time for football.

The field of statistics is extremely new especially in regards to sports. The advancements in the laat few years alone are tremendous

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[Sarnics13]

Interesting topic. Many fans believe they know best because they watch games, and go with what their eyeballs tell them. This is for most, not all, watching a game with food, drink, friends, and emotion. Yet, their eyeballs tell them everything.

When Philbin is asked about how certain players have played in post game, he always says he has to watch the tape but, fans know better and have no need to do this.

Let's take PFF for an example. Many believe they know nothing and are a waste at what they do. However, they take 10 hours to "eyeball" our team to grade each player on each play. No matter, fans watched the game, and, in some warped sense of reality, believe they know better. Amazing.

Yes but their stats are only based on outcome for a specific individual. In baseball that is so much easier to do because so little of what you do is dependent on another person. It is very much an individual effort. By contrast football is almost completely devoid of individual achievement. You can have a great batting average in baseball and very accurately can depict how good of a hitter you are. Nobody else has a stake in your success. In football you couldn't hand the ball to a RB and expect any positive results if he is there is only 1 Olineman, for example. A WR can do everything right, but if the ball is batted at the line, or underthrown by 10 yards he is penalized with a "miss" even though it had absolutely nothing to do with him.

I know there most likely far more sophisticated parameters but the point is that in football, looking at stats only is a inadequate to determine to a degree of certainty if a player is good or not. Overall he just has too many other people to rely on to complete the task he is being judged on.

 

[So Be]

Yes but their stats are only based on outcome for a specific individual. In baseball that is so much easier to do because so little of what you do is dependent on another person. It is very much an individual effort. By contrast football is almost completely devoid of individual achievement. You can have a great batting average in baseball and very accurately can depict how good of a hitter you are. Nobody else has a stake in your success. In football you couldn't hand the ball to a RB and expect any positive results if he is there is only 1 Olineman, for example. A WR can do everything right, but if the ball is batted at the line, or underthrown by 10 yards he is penalized with a "miss" even though it had absolutely nothing to do with him.

I know there most likely far more sophisticated parameters but the point is that in football, looking at stats only is a inadequate to determine to a degree of certainty if a player is good or not. Overall he just has too many other people to rely on to complete the task he is being judged on.

Then why is it that the players with the best stats, and ranked at the top with eyeball tests, are almost always the best players at their positions. I can go up and down the list, and there are few exceptions.

 

[So Be]

Ive subscribed to PFF before.....been there done that. No idea where they get some of their grades from. Sometimes they get close, other times they are way off.

But what PFF supplies isnt the "advanced stats" we are talking about. Giving a guy a -1,0,1, or 2 grade for each snap isn't what people are talking about with advanced statistical modeling.

Z, if you believe that they are way off, all ya gotta do is pick a player you disagreed with and post your opinions. Then we compare. What can be more fair?

 

[Zounds]

Then why is it that the players with the best stats, and ranked at the top with eyeball tests, are almost always the best players at their positions. I can go up and down the list, and there are few exceptions.

I think you are confusing stats, like TD passes, with the advanced statistical modeling used to make predictions.

Nobody is saying that we should stop counting TD passes, but when you incorporate the one variable of TD passes into a statistical model used to make a prediction, that's what the OP is talking about. What you are talking about is measuring productivity, what these new analytics in sports are trying to do is make a prediction.

 

[So Be]

I think you are confusing stats, like TD passes, with the advanced statistical modeling used to make predictions.

Nobody is saying that we should stop counting TD passes, but when you incorporate the one variable of TD passes into a statistical model used to make a prediction, that's what the OP is talking about. What you are talking about is measuring productivity, what these new analytics in sports are trying to do is make a prediction.

Not at all. On a QB, I'm looking at all throws behind the line, 0-9 yds, 10-19 yds, over 20 yds. and left, right, and middle on all, along with who caught what and where. I'm looking at a QB being blitzed, and under pressure, performance in play action, and how he did depending on the time he had to throw, etc. Not TD passes.