infiltrateib
TV Doctor
I'd like to offer a different perspective for looking at our team that some of you may not consider.
We'll start with the assumption that a salary cap exists. Suppose we have a 5-player basketball team with a salary cap of $120. Suppose this is our current roster, salary, and skill level:
Player 1: $20 Rating: 80
Player 2: $20 Rating: 77
Player 3: $40 Rating: 90
Player 4: $10 Rating: 55
Player 5: $10 Rating: 58
Now I'll make a couple of other assumptions.
1. Players are generally compensated for their projected worth.
2. The performance-to-pay curve is not linear but exponential. This one you might take issue with, but I can support this with a few examples: a player who is paid $5m/year is likely not 5x better than a player who is paid $1m/year. One way to check this is by going to ESPN Insider and checking the Scout's Inc rating of each player and cross-referencing it with their salary.
3. Players who are drafted in the first third of the first round are generally overpaid for their skill level (they are paid more on potential, as their immediate contributions are not worth their salaries). This may vary by position, but generally it's true.
Now go to the player roster I mentioned above. Player 3 is clearly not twice as good as Player 1, but he is paid this way.
What all of this means is this:
1. Given the upper bounds on the cap and the diminishing returns of increased salary, one of the best and most successful measures of a player's worth is his Skill
ay ratio.
2. No team can afford to fill its roster with all top-10 talent.
3. The best possible team is the team with the most overall/cumulative talent.
4. When evaluating a roster move, you must consider the Skillay shift between the old player and new player (new player = backup, if it's a release; new player = acquired player if it's a trade).
Here is how I apply it to the Dolphins:
Patrick Surtain right now has a very low skillay ratio. Before you get up in arms about that, think about what I'm saying. Yes, he is an amazing CB, one of the top 4 in the NFL, but he is paid a ton to be this. We can afford to carry a certain number of "special" players who are in the top-10, but this number is limited. You overpay for better talent.
Adewale Ogunleye was a good trade. Our pay:skill ratio increased enormously in our WR corps, and did not drop that far at DE. OGun's current P:S ratio is astronomical. Our dropoff in DE talent was less than our increase in WR talent.
And finally, AJ FEELEY SHOULD REMAIN OUR STARTING QB. His P:S ratio is low, and we can throw around some numbers. I believe he makes around $1m/season. I could be wrong; the only details I could find were of his contract signed with Philly where he received a 2.5m signing bonus with a low base salary. Correct me if I'm wrong. Now suppose we draft a QB with the #1 pick. This player would have, I believe, a similar growth curve to Feeley (slightly higher slope) with a higher ceiling. His initial skill level would be around the same as Feeley's (since they are coming straight from college to pro). A #1 draft pick receives a $15m bonus and ~$50m contract. This would equate to about $6m/year. This is 6x what Feeley is paid, for the same initial skill level. I estimate it would take one year for a rookie QB to see extensive time, and 1 year to mature. This means that in the third year this QB will see significant improvement, and will be making ~$7m (this is an estimation due to salary escalators). Assuming it's a 6 year contract, we'll have 3 more years of performance under similar numbers. By drafting a QB we only marginally improve performance at the expense of 6x salary..
We have other holes to fill, and I use all of this to advocate: trade down, pick up mutiple mid-first-round picks (OL, DT, maybe RB), keep Feeley, avoid drafting a QB.
Let me put it one other way. Morlon Greenwood is the PERFECT LINEBACKER in our system. He makes some plays, but is never strutting in the endzone returning picks or dropping QBs left and right. He is a stopgap, solid player who is unspectacular but rarely makes mistakes. He is the most important type of player on the team, as he is one of the highest in skillay ratio. We cannot afford playmaker probowlers at every position. QB is an important position, but we can create more improvement by leaving the QB situation alone and solidifying other areas. There is no need to upgrade 10% at the expense of ~600% salary when improving other areas is more effective.
We'll start with the assumption that a salary cap exists. Suppose we have a 5-player basketball team with a salary cap of $120. Suppose this is our current roster, salary, and skill level:
Player 1: $20 Rating: 80
Player 2: $20 Rating: 77
Player 3: $40 Rating: 90
Player 4: $10 Rating: 55
Player 5: $10 Rating: 58
Now I'll make a couple of other assumptions.
1. Players are generally compensated for their projected worth.
2. The performance-to-pay curve is not linear but exponential. This one you might take issue with, but I can support this with a few examples: a player who is paid $5m/year is likely not 5x better than a player who is paid $1m/year. One way to check this is by going to ESPN Insider and checking the Scout's Inc rating of each player and cross-referencing it with their salary.
3. Players who are drafted in the first third of the first round are generally overpaid for their skill level (they are paid more on potential, as their immediate contributions are not worth their salaries). This may vary by position, but generally it's true.
Now go to the player roster I mentioned above. Player 3 is clearly not twice as good as Player 1, but he is paid this way.
What all of this means is this:
1. Given the upper bounds on the cap and the diminishing returns of increased salary, one of the best and most successful measures of a player's worth is his Skill
ay ratio.2. No team can afford to fill its roster with all top-10 talent.
3. The best possible team is the team with the most overall/cumulative talent.
4. When evaluating a roster move, you must consider the Skill
ay shift between the old player and new player (new player = backup, if it's a release; new player = acquired player if it's a trade). Here is how I apply it to the Dolphins:
Patrick Surtain right now has a very low skill
ay ratio. Before you get up in arms about that, think about what I'm saying. Yes, he is an amazing CB, one of the top 4 in the NFL, but he is paid a ton to be this. We can afford to carry a certain number of "special" players who are in the top-10, but this number is limited. You overpay for better talent. Adewale Ogunleye was a good trade. Our pay:skill ratio increased enormously in our WR corps, and did not drop that far at DE. OGun's current P:S ratio is astronomical. Our dropoff in DE talent was less than our increase in WR talent.
And finally, AJ FEELEY SHOULD REMAIN OUR STARTING QB. His P:S ratio is low, and we can throw around some numbers. I believe he makes around $1m/season. I could be wrong; the only details I could find were of his contract signed with Philly where he received a 2.5m signing bonus with a low base salary. Correct me if I'm wrong. Now suppose we draft a QB with the #1 pick. This player would have, I believe, a similar growth curve to Feeley (slightly higher slope) with a higher ceiling. His initial skill level would be around the same as Feeley's (since they are coming straight from college to pro). A #1 draft pick receives a $15m bonus and ~$50m contract. This would equate to about $6m/year. This is 6x what Feeley is paid, for the same initial skill level. I estimate it would take one year for a rookie QB to see extensive time, and 1 year to mature. This means that in the third year this QB will see significant improvement, and will be making ~$7m (this is an estimation due to salary escalators). Assuming it's a 6 year contract, we'll have 3 more years of performance under similar numbers. By drafting a QB we only marginally improve performance at the expense of 6x salary..
We have other holes to fill, and I use all of this to advocate: trade down, pick up mutiple mid-first-round picks (OL, DT, maybe RB), keep Feeley, avoid drafting a QB.
Let me put it one other way. Morlon Greenwood is the PERFECT LINEBACKER in our system. He makes some plays, but is never strutting in the endzone returning picks or dropping QBs left and right. He is a stopgap, solid player who is unspectacular but rarely makes mistakes. He is the most important type of player on the team, as he is one of the highest in skill
ay ratio. We cannot afford playmaker probowlers at every position. QB is an important position, but we can create more improvement by leaving the QB situation alone and solidifying other areas. There is no need to upgrade 10% at the expense of ~600% salary when improving other areas is more effective.