The winning touchdown in the Pro Bowl last week was scored on the same type of low percentage call. That's what struck me immediately. I haven't sampled any of these threads tonight to see if that has been mentioned. I certainly didn't see it on any of the post game shows:
Team Irvin trailed very late in the 4th quarter and faced 4th and goal at the 1 yard line. Michael Irvin was miked on the sideline and was emphatically calling for a running play, "behind my three horses (Cowboys offensive linemen)."
I was sure that would be the call. The announcers agreed. Then somehow Matt Ryan took charge of the situation during the time out and insisted on doing it his way. The solution? A quick slant pass right on a pick play barely inside the goal line.
It happened to work. I was shaking my head and thinking...big deal. That's the epitome of low percentage football. If Matt Ryan believes that's the correct application of situational football, it's even more reason to doubt his ceiling. Running plays succeed better than pass plays in goal line and short yardage situations. The percentages aren't particularly close. Everything I've tried to emphasize on this site and elsewhere is the importance of doing the right thing, aligning the majority in your favor. I don't really care if some posters don't like it. I scoff at the Bar Stool wave of thought because so much of it is low percentage, like high decibel overreaction to the most recent thing on the menu, particularly if the overreaction corresponds with the attached bias. That combo leads to comical pronouncements. Sad, really. My YPPA Differential system struggled to 4-4 in the playoffs this season, losing a tough beat on Seattle. Since it's based on sound principals there's no reason to second guess or adjust anything.
Anyway, a week after that obscure Pro Bowl I never thought I'd see the Seattle Seahawks make the same type of low percentage choice, albeit on second down. Tony Dungy provided the best summary, that a pass play inside brings into play so many negative variables, like a tipped ball or holding call. If you're going to do something like that at least allow Russell Wilson to use his many strengths, the phenomenal ability to slip defenders and buy time. Heck, Marshawn Lynch was breaking into the clear on the left side.
Just a sickening loss. I really didn't care about the bet. I felt great allegiance to these Seahawks, given their smartly constructed home field advantage and Pete Carroll's bold move to the pros, risking his reputation suffering if he flopped. In many ways this game reminded me of the Canes' demoralizing loss to Ohio State while going for two straight titles, or the same with USC against Texas a few years later. Both of those teams led late -- Miami by 7 in overtime and USC by 12 with 5 minutes left -- similar to Seattle tonight. Miami 2002 with barely half as many forced turnovers was not as good as the awesome 2001 Canes of a year earlier, and likewise USC 2005 had a hopeless defense compared to the terrific 2004 version. These Seahawks with the modest +1.1 YPPA Differential were so vulnerable compared to last year's great team, the one with the astounding +4.7 net differential and +2.4 raw YPPA Differential. No way last year's team blows a 10 point 4th quarter lead but this year's version was just fragile enough. They couldn't afford the two additional injuries suffered tonight. Simon looked so pathetic against Carolina three weeks ago. Once Lane was out after the injury on the interception return it gave Brady a convenient target to pick on.
The Kearse drop on 3rd and 3 late third quarter was massive, massive, massive. The folks I watched the game with wanted me to shut up about that. I kept harping on it, even as Seattle maintained the 10 point edge. But I knew 10 was reachable, given Seattle's current level. I had already likened this Seahawks team to the Canes and Trojans of many years earlier. Pump that edge to 13 or 17 and suddenly the math destroys New England. Kearse is not a reliable player. That ball was as perfect as anyone could expect in that situation. Seattle owned all the energy and confidence. I'm almost glad I have distractions like dental surgery this week to partially take my mind off it. I'll remember the Kearse play as much or more than 2nd and goal. Flawed teams have to be ruthlessly greedy when everything is temporarily slanting in their favor.
Pro rivalries are mostly schlock. I don't particularly care that the Patriots won again. I would have forever despised them for 19-0. Blowing that game, particularly the way they did, allows Dolphin fans to hold an ongoing joyous trump card. Lots of teams will win 4 titles, then 6, and whatever. As long as unblemished is unmatched, let's not lose sight of how special it is, or how much jealousy it sparks.
BTW, there was one call nearly as inept as throwing on second and goal. Does Dan Patrick actually believe Gronkowski was already on those Patriot teams in any of the 2001, 2003, or 2004 seasons? He was asking him if he had forgotten what this felt like.
