Article/eval on Tua's ability to produce after first read; bust potential

[spiketex]

It is even scarier when you consider the exceptional talent (Jeudy, Ruggs, Smith, etc) that he was throwing to and their ability to make great catches. Tua also had among the best O-linemen protecting and giving him a little more time to evaluate the options.
When Johnny Manziel (another barely 6'0" QB) was drafted in the 1st round, people were raving about his scrambling skills to win the 2012 Heisman Trophy but the truth was simply that he had an exceptional WR in Mike Evans at Texas A & M who could outleap everyone and catch the ball. Evans was the real star and he helped make Manziel look good and when Johnny landed in Cleveland, it didn't take long for NFL Defenses to fully expose his weaknesses. Tua is way better than Johnny but analogous to this I wonder how much Jeudy, Ruggs, Smith and the great Alabama O-line have helped to showcase Tua Tagovailoa?

 

[jimthefin]

Sounds like we will really dodge a bullet if we miss out on Tua.


I have to wonder what this thread would look like if the math nerd had numbers that painted Tua in a positive light.

 

[jimthefin]

I can fully understand not wanting Tua because of the durability concerns.

He has been injured too much and the hip could be a problem for him going forward.That was a serious and significant injury.

But not liking him for Football reasons is beyond me.

How could you watch the kid play and not like what you saw?

IF( a very big IF)he stays healthy there is no doubt in my mind that he will be the best QB from this Draft.

The question is how likely is he to stay healthy and how much of a gambler are you?

If the price is #5 I am going with him, but I am not paying more than that.

By that same token I am not sure Herbert and Love are 1st rounders at all.I see Herbert being pretty good at best and Love is much more likely to flop than turn in Pat Mahomes Jr Jr.

 

[EJay]

It is even scarier when you consider the exceptional talent (Jeudy, Ruggs, Smith, etc) that he was throwing to and their ability to make great catches. Tua also had among the best O-linemen protecting and giving him a little more time to evaluate the options.

This is the most overused and ridiculous argument made against Tua. Or any QB prospect.

Clearly the people that write it aren’t able to think deeply and are, instead, grasping for confirmation bias.

Guess what? Pretty much every QB prospect that came from a power 5 program, let alone a perennial top 25 program, was surrounded by a ton of talent.

Joe Montana, Terry Bradshaw and Tom Brady quarterbacked teams that won 14 SB’s. Guess what they all have in common?

They played for teams led by HOF coaches, top tier defenses, and were surrounded by numerous HOF‘ers on the offensive side of the ball.

Does that mean they themselves weren’t really that good? Do you make the same argument against them??

Furthermore, Joe Burrow was surrounded by arguably the most amount of talent of any QB this season. LSU has top 5 prospects in this upcoming draft at nearly every position. And are returning players equally as good.

Where’s your criticism about that? I mean, the guy was pedestrian for 4 years until this past season with all that talent. Yet Tua has performed exceptionally well for 3 years and he’s the one that’s questioned?

Lastly, Alabama has been churning out top end talent for decades and decades. Saban himself has developed blue chip talent there for over a dozen years now.

How come no other Alabama QB, with the same amount of talent, has produced the same as Tua? Riddle everyone that!

I’ve got news for you. Football is the ultimate team sport. QB’s are often praised for winning titles as if they are Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer or Novak Djokovic winning singles titles. But what you’ll actually discover, of any championship team, is that they had a ton of talent everywhere.

There’s never been a title team that won with just a star QB. Never.

While a great QB can be found on a loser team devoid of talent, they can also be found on a winning team with a little or a lot of talent.

So, to conclude, the argument you and others continue to dredge up has absolutely no merit. At all.
A comprehensive list of college QB’s dating back a hundred years could easily be cited proving so.

As you were.

 

[Pachyderm_Wave]

It is even scarier when you consider the exceptional talent (Jeudy, Ruggs, Smith, etc) that he was throwing to and their ability to make great catches. Tua also had among the best O-linemen protecting and giving him a little more time to evaluate the options.
When Johnny Manziel (another barely 6'0" QB) was drafted in the 1st round, people were raving about his scrambling skills to win the 2012 Heisman Trophy but the truth was simply that he had an exceptional WR in Mike Evans at Texas A & M who could outleap everyone and catch the ball. Evans was the real star and he helped make Manziel look good and when Johnny landed in Cleveland, it didn't take NFL Defenses to fully expose his weaknesses. Tua is way better than Johnny but analogous to this I wonder how much Jeudy, Ruggs, Smith and the great Alabama O-line have helped to showcase Tua Tagovailoa?

What great catches are we referring to? There’s not a single throw Tua has made or a single catch any receiver for Alabama has made that I haven’t seen. I count about 5 catches between all of em that could even be considered out of the ordinary.

They never had to make great catches because the ball was always on the money. Did you happen to see the two perfectly placed touchdowns that Jeudy dropped against LSU?

If you want to see a bunch of great catches - go watch Clemson’s receivers.

So many people are chiming in that just have no clue what they’re talking about. I’ve come to realize it’s just part of talking about college football on an NFL team’s message board. Just baffling to be honest.

I watched all these receivers run open for 2 years while Jalen Hurts was the quarterback. He couldn’t get ‘em the football.
I talked about it at length in the college football forum. It finally took a locker room revolt by the whole receiver group to put an end to that nonsense.

If Tua can just avoid the injuries he’ll be better than any of these receivers.

Henry Ruggs has become one of the most overrated players in this entire draft. He’s a 2nd rounder. The top 15 pick talk by these draftniks all over the place is going to make for interesting thread bumps down the road.

 

[spiketex]

What great catches are we referring to? There’s not a single throw Tua has made or a single catch any receiver for Alabama has made that I haven’t seen. I count about 5 catches between all of em that could even be considered out of the ordinary.

They never had to make great catches because the ball was always on the money. Did you happen to see the two perfectly placed touchdowns that Jeudy dropped against LSU?

If you want to see a bunch of great catches - go watch Clemson’s receivers.

So many people are chiming in that just have no clue what they’re talking about. I’ve come to realize it’s just part of talking about college football on an NFL team’s message board. Just baffling to be honest.

I watched all these receivers run open for 2 years while Jalen Hurts was the quarterback. He couldn’t get ‘em the football.
I talked about it at length in the college football forum. It finally took a locker room revolt by the whole receiver group to put an end to that nonsense.

If Tua can just avoid the injuries he’ll be better than any of these receivers.

Henry Ruggs has become one of the most overrated players in this entire draft. He’s a 2nd rounder. The top 15 pick talk by these draftniks all over the place is going to make for interesting thread bumps down the road.

Thx for your prompt and direct feedback. You are a serious Alabama fan and if you say that Jeudy, Ruggs and Smith didn't assist Tua and make great catches, I believe you. You are the expert. My read is that Tua has very good accuracy but I'm unsure how good he will look without a top O-line protecting him and lesser talent at receiver. I'd like him to be drafted by Miami but I don't think it's a certainty even if he's available.

 

[BlueFin]

Thx for your prompt and direct feedback. You are a serious Alabama fan and if you say that Jeudy, Ruggs and Smith didn't assist Tua and make great catches, I believe you. You are the expert. My read is that Tua has very good accuracy but I'm unsure how good he will look without a top O-line protecting him and lesser talent at receiver. I'd like him to be drafted by Miami but I don't think it's a certainty even if he's available.

Its laughable for anybody to suggest Tua doesn’t have 1st round talent around him...including bookend 1st round tackles.

 

[meatpardle]

It’s not the first time this has been raised about Tua and when I first read it a few days ago it did raise questions. I think it’s too narrow a study to consider it definitive proof of anything, but food for thought.

As for the author, the ‘Contextualised Quarterbacking’ project is something that Solak and TDN have been pushing recently and it’s tied up in their new premium service, which this article is advertising. Definitely a sense of picking a big topic to get clicks and promote the service.

 

[RedWhiteNBlue]

Solak is an absolute hack, but he's young and seems to try hard.

You can go to thier website and read the Tua evals by the actual football scouts they have. Polar opposite of this guys stat crap. Nothing but praise for how well we throws, reads the field and adjusts to coverages, ball placement for YAC extends plays, looks off defenders constantly etc etc etc. The guy is a total HACK. They have him as 6th best player in the draft. Tua just needs to learn a little self preservation and hes going to be great.

 

[Finfan83nj]

The guy writing this article is clearly pulling up some stats and watches zero film. Turn on any game and you can see Tua goes through his reads extremely quick, quicker then any other qb in this class. He often knows b4 the snap where hes going with the ball and looks off defenders then throws to that target, more importantly throws them open or so they can keep running. Getting real tired of these articles. Also he can create just fine. He is highly graded and has a good shot at being great in the NFL. That's all you can hope for when you take these guys. As for injuries ya its disturbing but there is zero proof of being injured in college leading to being constantly injured in the nfl. Right now I'd say Tua is easily worth our 5th pick. Herbert's not but if tuas gone we should take someone like Simmons if they are there and move from 18 back into the top 10 for Herbert is San Diego passes on him.

That was like Armando the other night saying Tua doesn’t attack the middle of the field or seams. I’m like uh, have you even watched an Alabama game?

 

[The Bopkin]

First of all, I would love to thank everyone for their phenomenal responses in this thread; this is what I was hoping to get by posting that article.
I have been a manic football fan for 45 years, I played a little, my son is going to play at college, but I do not know about scouting or evaluating talent, and I really go by what I read. And I clearly am not always reading the best stuff, nor do I know where to go to get the best stuff. Which is why I come to this forum, because there are some posters here who just deliver.
Thanks again, all. Can't wait till Thursday night.

 

[Awsi Dooger]

This is not new. I referenced it a few weeks ago, the dramatic difference between Tua's success rate on his first read as opposed to second read and beyond. I didn't come up with it. The numbers were within some of those spreadsheets. I forget if it was the Derrik Klassen version or one of the others. Maybe I used a combination of them. Regardless, it is a positive development. We need far more math-based analysis given the miserable performance of tape, especially at the quarterback position.

I remember mentioning the situational influence that contributed to Tua's poor number on second reads. It was the defensive strategy that opponents apply against Alabama compared to what other quarterbacks faced. Tua faced a pressure defense with 5+ rushers 40% of the time, compared to Anthony Gordon who faced 5+ rushers only 18% of the time. No kidding. Washington State doesn't threaten downfield. It is a bunch of underneath garbage. So why pressure and allow the underneath garbage to break free for an undeserved long gain? And since Tua has 5 or 6 guys charging toward him a comparatively high percentage of the time yeah it's not exactly complicated to figure out he might have less than ideal numbers in that situation when the first read is not available. I'm not going to look everything up but I think Burrow faced 5+ rushers 30% of the time.

In that post I also remember stating that Tua will probably face an adjustment in the NFL when he's facing fewer rushers and higher percentage of nickel and dime coverages.

No big deal. As always the adjustments are interesting offseason filler. They don't come close to overtaking the totality. As others have pointed out in this thread, the anti-Tua crowd are the desperate types. Injuries are one thing. Doubting Tua's ability level is flat out silly and has never been anything besides that. You aren't going to win the long term big picture game by demoting someone of that caliber, the sustained 11 YPA caliber.

 

[Blake the great]

What great catches are we referring to? There’s not a single throw Tua has made or a single catch any receiver for Alabama has made that I haven’t seen. I count about 5 catches between all of em that could even be considered out of the ordinary.

They never had to make great catches because the ball was always on the money. Did you happen to see the two perfectly placed touchdowns that Jeudy dropped against LSU?

If you want to see a bunch of great catches - go watch Clemson’s receivers.

So many people are chiming in that just have no clue what they’re talking about. I’ve come to realize it’s just part of talking about college football on an NFL team’s message board. Just baffling to be honest.

I watched all these receivers run open for 2 years while Jalen Hurts was the quarterback. He couldn’t get ‘em the football.
I talked about it at length in the college football forum. It finally took a locker room revolt by the whole receiver group to put an end to that nonsense.

If Tua can just avoid the injuries he’ll be better than any of these receivers.

Henry Ruggs has become one of the most overrated players in this entire draft. He’s a 2nd rounder. The top 15 pick talk by these draftniks all over the place is going to make for interesting thread bumps down the road.

Yay! you got one right. I agree that Ruggs is over hyped. The NFL over values speed at the WR position. The speedy WR's that get drafted high rarely live up to their draft position a la John Ross, Will Fuller, Phillip Dorsett etc.

 

[EJay]

Its laughable for anybody to suggest Tua doesn’t have 1st round talent around him...including bookend 1st round tackles.

Every bluechip QB prospect from a power 5 conference has 1st round talent around them. Every SB winning QB has elite talent on the roster helping them.

You’re not breaking news here.

So what’s the point? That it takes a ‘team’ to win? Again, that’s not breaking news.

Guess what? Joe Burrow had more offensive talent around him this season than Tua and Alabama. Trevor Lawrence does at Clemson too. But people are still lining up to draft them.

This ‘surrounding talent’ thing is by far the worst argument on this forum.

 

[BlueFin]

Every bluechip QB prospect from a power 5 conference has 1st round talent around them. Every SB winning QB has elite talent on the roster helping them.

You’re not breaking news here.

So what’s the point? That it takes a ‘team’ to win? Again, that’s not breaking news.

Guess what? Joe Burrow had more offensive talent around him this season than Tua and Alabama. Trevor Lawrence does at Clemson too. But people are still lining up to draft them.

This ‘surrounding talent’ thing is by far the worst argument on this forum.

You are joking right?.... While Burrow had near comparable talent To Alabama and Tua...and quite sure LSU did not have two first round bookend tackles... or 4 1st round wideouts.

Oregon? Not even close.

You want to jerk off thinking those teams are all equal? Help yourself!