I would say Luck is #1 and Barkley is #1a. I think 2012 will be a good year to draft a QB with many available and fewer than usual teams in dire need of one. Luck has the size that Barkley lacks and I can see some scouts downgrading Barkley because of size ... I just pray that Ireland isn't one of them, since he is a size-mold type in general.
But when it all shakes out, I see two truly elite caliber QB's in Luck and Barkley, but a sizable drop off to the other highly talented signal callers. I cam assure you that the NFL scouts will be getting frequent visitor discounts to the motels in California and Oklahoma this year. Some foolish GM's will wait on some of the other good QB's in this class, but I think we need to find a way to trade into one of the top two picks to assure we get Luck or Barkley. Both are destined to become franchise QB's IMHO, and both are exactly the type of character individuals everyone wants as the face of their franchise.
I can see Barkley dropping as far as #9 in next years draft, but I expect him to go #2 overall after Luck. Ireland, start collecting the chess pieces now, and don't forget to call Bellichik, because a top two overall will not come cheaply. I'd be thrilled if we could pull it off for what Atlanta traded to jump way up this year, but I suspect a bidding war will happen and the price will be much steeper.