Had you come to me yesterday and said the Dolphins would come out of the first day with Ted Ginn Jr. at #9, John Beck at #40, Samson Satele at #60, and Lorenzo Booker at #71, I would have been dancing a jig.
Flat out, ecstatic.
The #2 WR in the draft, the #2 QB in the draft, the #2 Center in the draft, and an underrated and speedy playmaker at RB.
What is wrong with that?
Well, what is wrong with it is speculation of what could have been. We could have taken Brady Quinn at #9. Yes, absolutely. But, 21 other teams passed on the man, fully making him the Aaron Rodgers of the 2007 Draft.
Boy I did not see that coming. I really didn't. The problem is that the scouts are scared of the ghost of Joey Harrington in Brady Quinn. In Harrington you have a guy that had all the intangibles you wanted but just...wasn't...accurate.
I think the accuracy issues with Quinn are overblown. He'll be another Marc Bulger, Jake Delhomme, Mark Brunell (back in his heyday), Trent Green, etc. These are the guys you know are solid, franchise quarterbacks that could lead their team to Championships any given year, have tended to establish consistent success, and could each go to the Pro Bowl.
That's what kind of player I think Quinn will be. I don't know that he'll go down as any Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Dan Marino, Joe Montana, John Elway, etc. How could you possibly predict that? He doesn't carry that kind of grade.
So, we missed on that. More to the point, we passed on that. Lucky for us, we got the only other quarterback in this draft I felt was at that level, at a remarkably cheaper price.
So how do I really knock it? Cam Cameron, quarterback expert that he has become known as in his career, interviewed Brady Quinn on multiple occasions. They put him through the wringer. They had him draw up and explain as many plays as he could within 60 seconds. They watched him throw in warm weather, watched him throw in cold weather, they had Terry Shea, who had the INSIDE scoop on Brady Quinn because he was hired as Quinn's personal tutor for about four weeks.
When push came to shove, the Dolphins rated little old John Beck of BYU slightly higher than Brady Quinn...according to Dave Hyde's inside source.
Wrap your minds around that for a minute. Heck, take a few days if you want, but come to grips with it nonetheless. Men who have forgotten more about quarterback play than ANY of us will ever know, decided that John Beck was slightly better than Brady Quinn. Men who conducted interviews, the details of which many of us can only SPECULATE on, did their homework and rated Beck the better player.
So is this a time for Miami fans to be upset?
No. This is a time for Miami fans to be excited. Why? Because we found out something we didn't know.
Let me explain. I know Brady Quinn as a prospect. I've done enough homework, I've seen enough film, and have had access to enough public and non-public information to be comfortable in my belief that he will be a solid starting quarterback in the NFL.
Can I say the same about John Beck? Can any of us? Even Boomer? I don't think so. I really don't. The coverage just isn't the same. The information availability just isn't the same. The film availability isn't the same and there sure as heck isn't the same personality coverage.
So yes. If you wanted to, you could say to yourself that what is really going on here is Miami saying that Brady Quinn just wasn't worth the squeeze. Call me an optimist, but I believe it was the guys in the know simply telling us that John Beck IS worth the squeeze. To me, Miami was simply saying that yeah, Brady Quinn is good...but John Beck is better. Take Quinn at #9, you get a worst quarterback than Beck at #40, and even worse you lose your shot at getting a rare playmaker like Ted Ginn Jr.
I agree with the doomsayers on one issue. If they're wrong about this, Cameron and Co. can pack their bags. These quarterback experts, men that were brought in to SPECIFICALLY fix the quarterback position, made a quarterback evaluation that they are going to have to live or die with. They're riding the John Beck train.
So let the experts-in-a-can say what they want here, Miami's brain trust were just trying to say hey...there are two guys that are going to be good quarterbacks in this league and we just got the better one at less than half the price.
Ballsy? You bet. But this isn't Miami passing on Drew Brees to take Jamar Fletcher. This is more akin to San Diego passing on Mike Vick to get a crack at Drew Brees. Or, more recently, San Diego fixing their eyes on Phil Rivers as opposed to Eli Manning.
As for the picks themselves, Miami picked up a three-in-one jack of all trades in Ted Ginn Jr. This is not just some guy who is fast in shorts and a t-shirt but can't run routes and has questionable hands. If this guy couldn't run routes and catch the ball well, he would not have DOMINATED guys like Leon Hall (#18 pick) and Aaron Ross (#20 pick). He wouldn't have been the clear top receiving option in Ohio State's high-powered 2006 offense, if he was just a kick and punt returner.
Ridiculous. Balls out ridiculous, that anyone would try to even insinuate that Ted Ginn Jr. is just a special teams ace. The kind of ridiculous that makes you question just who DOES know their football and who does not.
I'm in regular contact with one professional scout. I wrote him something ridiculous like a 3000 word stream of consciousness to him about a month ago on why I believed Ted Ginn Jr. would be Miami's pick. After the pick, I brought up my previous email with him.
His words? "I like it. Ginn will be a playmaker. There are not many people that can change the scope of a game in one play...he can. If the so-called draft experts didn't like the pick, tell them this guy is a blur, he is so fast."
The bottom line is he immediately gives the Dolphins's offense credibility in the speed department. Immediately. This is before he even takes a single snap. Nobody knows how fast he really is. They know he ran a 4.34 as an incoming freshman like 3 years ago. They know he ran a 4.38 in wet conditions with a foot that was only 75% and still needed at least 2 months more rehab before it would be in football shape.
What coaches don't know can kill them. You watch what happens in July. Miami will be patient with Ted Ginn Jr. They'll keep him in the protective boot. They'll limit him in mini camps and focus on getting him mental reps. Then he'll show up to training camp in July full speed, and that is when you'll start to hear the rumors. Miami will time him privately, without any reporters present. They'll want to know how fast he is. It will be a top secret affair...and you just watch what kind of ridiculous times they'll float out there that Ted Ginn Jr. privately ran in the 40 yard dash in front of Miami staff. How does a 4.14 sound? Ridiculous? Sure does. Truthful? Not on your life. But that will be the rumor.
Can he escape the jam? That will be the primary focus of his training, I would be willing to bet. They'll limit his route selection pretty severely, like they did with Chris Chambers in his rookie year, making him digest only a handful of routes in his rookie season that he will be asked to get good at. The routes will naturally be vertically-oriented. If teams don't buy his speed, and play the press, without keeping those safeties way over top...watch out. That ball will come belting out of the quarterback's hand and it will hang in the sky so long that Ginn will be able to run under it no matter what corner he faces. How long since we've seen something like that in Miami? And if teams do buy his speed, keep the safeties backed up, look for Ronnie, Ricky, Lorenzo, Chambers, and Martin to get the action.
As Chris Mortenson said, when Miami were scouting Santonio Holmes a year ago, Ted Ginn Jr. was the guy that REALLY drew your attention.
So then you've got the Beck pick and that I have just always felt would be a slam dunk. There were two quarterbacks in this draft I felt would be a true slam dunk if Miami found a way to get them. The rest, I'd be willing to accept, I suppose...but I can't fake it and pretend I'd be thrilled with Drew Stanton, Kevin Kolb, Jamarcus Russell, or Trent Edwards. Sorry, the value just isn't there. They don't have the history.
Once upon a time, MrClean (a VIP regular) pointed out how an ESPN Insider magazine study correlated NFL quarterback success with two college statistics. One, was number of games played. The second, was career accuracy percentage. Beck has a 62.4% career completion, and has played in 44 games.
Of course it isn't that easy. But, it isn't that complicated, either. The guy completed 70% of his passes this year with like a 9.4 ypa. Superlative numbers. Numbers aren't everything, or so the Joey Harrington fans kept telling me. But they're really just collected evidence of what you did on the football field and the evidence points to John Beck dominating the football field.
I think he'll find a nice parallel to Johnny Harline in David Martin Martin and Harline are very similar, IMO.
At #60 we picked Samson Satele. He is probably the best fit at Center for this team. Ryan Kalil went #59 but he went to exactly the kind of team he should be going to, a zone blocking ground scheme will go a long way toward helping Kalil establish his value in this league. His lack of true anchor ability will not hurt in Carolina the way it would in Miami.
Obviously Samson needs work on his run blocking but with our coaching staff, I would not discount the possibility of learning well as he goes. This is a guy that has tremendous lower body explosion and fits the category of guys that you can watch on film and "get excited about." Rob Ryan, Oakland's defensive coordinator, nicknamed the man "Bad @ss" because of his film.
He compares favorably with Jesse Sapolu. Remember, it all starts in the Center for Cam Cameron. They started revamping their offensive line with Nick Hartwick. In Miami, they're starting with Samson Satele. My guess is Samson could end up starting at Center and learning as he goes, with Hadnot moving over to guard.
I think Lorenzo Booker has an opportunity to be something special. He has always averaged well over 4 yards a carry even behind a consensus atrocious offensive line. Most NFL coaches are baffled with FSU's decision making where it concerned Booker. You watch a tape of this guy and he has TRUE speed and shake. We're talking lateral abilities. Ronnie has vertical and power abilities, combined with balance, acceleration and tremendous hands. Lorenzo Booker has that lateral ability, speed to the outside, and the ability to take it up the middle too. He gives us a full range of abilities in the ground game, and in the mean time probably serves a special teams niche voided by the loss of Travis Minor. But this guy has a whole lot more potential than Minor ever had.
As for our AFC East brethren, I think the Bills had the best day aside from Miami. I have never truly felt comfortable with Trent Edwards but with all the constant stream of information I have about him, I am definitely comfortable saying he is talented and I was wrong for dismissing him out of hand for much of this process. The Bills got him at a good price. You don't take a never-was in the 2nd round but you can take one at the end of the 3rd. Meanwhile they got IMMEDIATE contributors at two key positions that were voided this off season. Posluszny can make an immediate impact and Marshawn definitely will.
I don't like what the Jets did. I love Darrelle Revis and trading up for him was not bad. They got a good player for that defense. He'll play the boundary very well. But all in all they end up with 4 picks in this draft...a mid-1st, a mid-2nd, a 6th and a 7th. You can toss the 6th and 7th. Together they have probably a 15% chance of getting ONE significant player from among those two picks. I think chances are very good they got a significant player in Darrelle Revis. But, is David Harris really such a lock to be a significant player? Personally, I don't think so. You should aim to come out of a 7-pick draft virtually guaranteed to come out with AT LEAST 2 significant players, and with all their eggs in the Revis and Harris baskets to get those two players, I think the Jets rolled the dice and I don't like it. That's all I'm saying.
The Patriots, their first day was nil. Again they took a dicey boom-or-bust risk with the 49ers and that trade. Could it pay off BIG? Sure. This is a team that picked #1 in 2005, picked #6 in 2006, and picked #11 in 2007.
What does that tell you though? I see positive momentum, momentum that could continue. They picked up some good free agents (expensive, but good) and their draft isn't looking bad. Their offense is turning into a powerhouse and their defense is getting straightened out sloooooowly. But they play in a volatile and WEAK NFC...and they're not exactly set to be dominated in their division by the Rams, Seahawks, or Cardinals. I dunno. If this pick turns into a pick between #22 and #32, one inevitably has to wonder what the point was of this trade. But, that's the risk they decided to take.
Brandon Meriweather I did not think was a first round safety. He's nice, a good playmaker, but he's no Ed Reed or some other dominant safety...and honestly I'm not necessarily buying that he'll stay out of trouble in the NFL. He has risky Jason Williams type personal habits that might not go away. How can you dismiss the stomping thing? I can't. The gun thing might be LEGALLY dismissed but if trouble's just going to follow this guy that's not a good thing.
So all in all, Miami got the better of their AFC East opponents on the first day.
But tomorrow, the Patriots are upping the stocks, with about fifteeen thousand picks. We shall see what they do with them...and what we do with ours.
Here are some parting thoughts on guys that have fallen out of Day One that should not have fallen. These are some of the guys you'd typically see targeted in the top 10 of the fourth round.
RB Michael Pittman - Relative to some of the backs that got taken in the first day, it is kind of puzzling how this guy was left without a dance partner.
TE Ben Patrick - Such a big boy with such natural ability in the passing game, this really spells potential and I bet he gets targeted.
OT Doug Free - Definitely the highest rated OL left on the board. This guy needs a home. He's a love him/hate him type with tons of natural ability. He could end up the best LT in this draft if his issues with speed rushers are as correctible as I tend to think they are.
DE Brian Robison - A bundle of athletic ability waiting to explode.
DT Marcus Thomas - Could end up falling some more based on HORRIBLE character and work ethic....but how far until talent wins the day? He's the best DT in the draft on film!
LB Tim Shaw - Surprised he didn't go on the first day. Lots of teams have to love what he brings to the table, versatility, athletic ability, and well-coached.
DB Tanard Jackson - He's too good and too versatile to continue falling.
FS Josh Gattis - Same thing here.
DT Paul Soliai - Really get down to it and this guy might be the best nose tackle in the draft.
OG Josh Beekman - I think his fall was a little prescribed...but it can only last so long for such a powerful and technical player.
